The remaining 4 games, predicted draft order, and primary team need for team at top of draft

[MHS831]

CURRENT DRAFT ORDER

1.  Raiders   2-11 (SOS .538)  Remaining Schedule:

Raiders have a chance to win 1 more game, maybe 2, but 1 is probably a reach with Ridder as the QB.  Revenge game vs. Atlanta, Lowly Jacksonville, and struggling New Orleans--I am guessing they could win 1.  Predicted finish 3-14.

2.  Giants   2-11 (SOS .542)   Remaining Schedule:

If the Giants are going to find a win, it will probably not be until December 29 vs. Indy at home.  I think they will lose out, however.  Predicted finish: 2-15.

3.  Patriots  3-10  (SOS .462)  Remaining schedule:

If the Patriots are going to win another game, it will be at home vs. Buffalo on January 5.  Buffalo will likely be resting starters.  I think the Pats will want a win and get it. Predicted finish 4-13.

4 Panthers 3-10  (SOS .484)  Remaining Schedule:

Carolina hosts the Cowturds (I just made that up) this week. Dallas has 1 win vs. 6 road losses this year, and the Panthers are playing better.  All odds suggest the Cats win--I think it is a coin toss.  I do not see a win down the home stretch, but Tampa and Atlanta are possible.  Predicted finish:  4-13.

5. Jaguars 3-10 (SOS .489) Remaining schedule:

Jags have the opportunity to win 4 of 4 down the stretch with their backup QB.  I think the Jets beat them, but they will win vs. Tennessee and possibly Vegas and Indy.  Predicted finish: 5-12

6.  Titans 3-10 (SOS .511) Remaining Schedule:

The Titans should have a decent chance of winning their remaining games;  I give them 1 win down the stretch, however.  They will beat Indy or Jags.  Predicted finish: 4-13.

7. Jets 3-10 (SOS .516)  Remaining Schedule:

Jets travel to Jax to play Jags Sunday.  I think they win it, lose the next three.  Predicted Finish:  4-13.

8. Browns 3-10 (SOS .525)  Remaining schedule:

The tea leaves show no more wins for Cleveland. Predicted finish:  3-14.

9.  Bears 4-9  (SOS .566)  Remaining Schedule:

Where is another win coming from?  Predicted finish, 4-13.

PREDICTED DRAFT ORDER USING CURRENT STRENGTHS OF SCHEDULE (SOS):

1. Giants 2-15 (.543)  Primary Need:  Quarterback.  Gotta be Ward, doesn't it?

2. Cleveland 3-14 (.525)  Primary Need:  Quarterback or OT depending on their position on Watson--never have a better opportunity to draft a QB.  They could go Hunter, and if Sanders is the only QB left, Daddy Sanders has been pushing for Vegas.  Eli Manning to Chargers situation again? 

3. Raiders 3-14 (.538)  Quarterback--if not there, Hunter CB.

4. Patriots 4-13 (.462)  Wide Receiver--this makes it interesting for Panthers--if they take TMc, what to do?

5.  Panthers 4-13 (.484)  Edge or Wide Receiver. 

6.  Titans 4-13 (.511)  Wide Receiver or OT

7.  Jets 4-13 (.516)  Defensive Tackle

8.  Bears 4-13 (.566)  Offensive Tackle

9.  Jaguars 5-12  (.489)  Cornerback

 

[*FreeFua*]

I don’t see the Raiders, Giants, Patriots, Browns, Bears and possibly even the Jets (pending their Jax game) winning another game 

These next 2 games for us are very winnable imo with the way we’ve been playing 

At some point we need to start winning a few of these close games and I think we will. I still think we’re somewhere in the 7-10 range when the season ends 

It would be nice if the teams with 5 wins (Bengals,Saints and Cowboys) all win one more so that our floor is probably pick 9. Bengals and Saints should get one more win each if my first prediction in this post is correct. If we beat Dallas I don’t see them winning another game.

[*FreeFua*]

If we’re sitting at 9…

Let’s say 3 QB’s go in top 10. Sanders, Ward and Allar. 

Then… Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, Tet McMillian, Will Campbell and Mason Graham (maybe) will go in some order 

At 9 I’m probably taking Luther Burden

 

 

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, *FreeFua* said:

I don’t see the Raiders, Giants, Patriots, Browns, Bears and possibly even the Jets (pending their Jax game) winning another game 

These next 2 games for us are very winnable imo with the way we’ve been playing 

At some point we need to start winning a few of these close games and I think we will. I still think we’re somewhere in the 7-10 range when the season ends 

It would be nice if the teams with 5 wins (Bengals,Saints and Cowboys) all win one more so that our floor is probably pick 9. Bengals and Saints should get one more win each if my first prediction in this post is correct. If we beat Dallas I don’t see them winning another game.

On paper, you are right, but mathematically, the worst teams in the NFL win one in four at least half the time--I think we could win 3 down the stretch--or revert back to the old Panthers.  I also think that we need to play Caleb Farley, Smith-Wade (we have been), Jaden Crumedy, and I might bring Andrew Raym and Plummer up from the PS to see how they do should the Panthers get a big lead or get blown out--I think we need to try to win, but there are moments when you can assess the roster for the offseason--I think we have not done a good job with that in the past.  Moral victories are important, but so is knowing what you have on the roster entering free agency and the draft.

Good post--makes me think about a different perspective--even if it is totally wrong and void of logic Nah, I see it. 

[*FreeFua*]

14 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

On paper, you are right, but mathematically, the worst teams in the NFL win one in four at least half the time--I think we could win 3 down the stretch--or revert back to the old Panthers.  I also think that we need to play Caleb Farley, Smith-Wade (we have been), Jaden Crumedy, and I might bring Andrew Raym and Plummer up from the PS to see how they do should the Panthers get a big lead or get blown out--I think we need to try to win, but there are moments when you can assess the roster for the offseason--I think we have not done a good job with that in the past.  Moral victories are important, but so is knowing what you have on the roster entering free agency and the draft.

Good post--makes me think about a different perspective--even if it is totally wrong and void of logic Nah, I see it. 

Kingston and Raym are two guys I’d like to see BUT I’m not messing with the OL right now while Young is beginning to trust that unit again

I agree though that we could even win 3 games if they keep playing the way they have been. Dallas, Zona and Atlanta the last week is a wildcard. Tampa in TB will be a tough one. 

I’ve always been very vocal about being pro tank but this year I’m okay if this team wants to win a few. These guys need to see their work translate to wins so that they really believe in what this staff is doing

This years draft is all over the place prospect wise. The edge group will be ranked differently by all teams. 

Teams will have Burden, Tet, Bond and Egbuka all ranked differently 

So if there was ever a year to drop 3-4 spots due to a few late season wins this is probably the year 

[MHS831]

3 hours ago, *FreeFua* said:

If we’re sitting at 9…

Let’s say 3 QB’s go in top 10. Sanders, Ward and Allar. 

Then… Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, Tet McMillian, Will Campbell and Mason Graham (maybe) will go in some order 

At 9 I’m probably taking Luther Burden

 

 

I think you have to--I have not been reading up on these people, but is Allar gaining ground? PFF (last week) rated Jalen Milroe the top overall QB.  There will be one or two that do.  I see it.  Someone will rise because in that group of teams listed above, the Raiders, Giants, Browns, Jets, Titans--5 of the top 9, will be in the market.  I really like the sleeper potential in this draft--and when teams start digging, QBs will fly up the board--(Crazy statement:  Once thought to be a very weak draft could become one of the best in the NFL).  What happened to Beck?  Some say he has pro skills.  Nussmeier has NFL talent.  Quinn Ewers kept a Manning on the bench and led a winning team 2 years in a row--injury prone?  Personally, I think Rourke would be a good fit here, with his quick release.  He ended the college football season with the #1 passer rating.  I think the analysts (internet GMs) are getting the QB position this season totally wrong.  I see all of the QBs as developmental, but I see the potential. 

1.  Ward  I have not seen enough, but the dual threat QB who is pretty accurate is not as common as one thinks.  Giants or Raiders, but watch the Browns.

2. Sanders  (He looks like a system QB to me--good athlete, throws a good ball--why can't I buy in?  In the age of NIL, he is a college QB wearing a hand towel with a metalic gold "$" embroidered onto it.  I do not want a person who measures himself and separates himself from his teammates that way. Sorry, but what is he going to be like if he is average and his second contract is due?  Maybe I am wrong to think that way, but I do.

3.  Ewers (Plays under pressure and is smart.  21.  I like the way he won at Texas knowing that if he had a bad game there was a Manning behind him.  Injuries are a concern)

4.  Allar (I think he needs another year and will stay in school.  He is not yet 21)

5. Rourke (from Canada.  Maybe he would fit into the Carolina backfield, Aye? Highest rated passer in NCAA this season.  24 years old, however)

6.  Nussmeire  (mental discipline is his issue--takes too many unnecessary chances--skills are there)

7.  Milroe--Eh. I see the tools.

[MHS831]

6 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

Kingston and Raym are two guys I’d like to see BUT I’m not messing with the OL right now while Young is beginning to trust that unit again

I agree though that we could even win 3 games if they keep playing the way they have been. Dallas, Zona and Atlanta the last week is a wildcard. Tampa in TB will be a tough one. 

I’ve always been very vocal about being pro tank but this year I’m okay if this team wants to win a few. These guys need to see their work translate to wins so that they really believe in what this staff is doing

This years draft is all over the place prospect wise. The edge group will be ranked differently by all teams. 

Teams will have Burden, Tet, Bond and Egbuka all ranked differently 

So if there was ever a year to drop 3-4 spots due to a few late season wins this is probably the year 

Very solid points.  If you aren't in the market for a QB, and I don't think we are in round 1, the field is pretty level through about pick 20.  Just depends on what you need.  By the way, I probably would not insert backup OL while we have Bryce in the game--I want to see more of Plummer because his preseason game was solid--want to see more.  Not a fan of holding onto Dalton.    People on this board have been subtly critical of Mays at C moving forward.  I am pleasantly surprised by his play there.  At 25 and in a new position, he has done well. 

Most importantly, the psychology of losing out would carry over - to your point.  What may help you in the draft hurts you in free agency.  People need to step back when they can and see the big picture.   I feel that we are turning the corner.  I feel that Bryce is finally showing signs of getting it.   I still say grab Indiana's Rourke in the third or so--