Offensive Starters (Where are they found in the draft)

[SCO96]

The data in the below table is somewhat dated. It covers the NFL offensive starters from 2017-2021 by where they were drafted. Interesting data. There are certain positions that usually need to be drafted as high in the first or 2nd round (QB, LT) in order to have a greater likelihood of success. Other positions have a good chance of finding starters even after rounds 1-2. The table below shows that 25% of the guards starting in round in the NFL during that period and 37% of the centers were found on day 3 (rounds 4-7).  If you include UDFA those numbers climb to 45% and 53% for those positions. Of course this data doesn't take into account how good these players perform on the field. It only considers the fact that they are starters for their team.

I'm going to try and find some information on defensive starters.

After seeing the success rates of players taken in round 7,  I now see I was justified in trading away those picks away to move up in the draft on the Madden Franchise Mode. 

According to the below table, UDFAs had a greater chance of starting for a team than players drafted in round 7. 

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2022/7/13/23206891/where-was-the-average-nfl-offensive-starter-drafted-by-position

• OUR 2025 DRAFT PICKS (SO FAR)
• First round pick
• Second-round pick (via LA Rams)
• Third round pick
• Fourth round pick
• Fifth round pick
• Fifth Round pick (via Ravens)
• Fifth-round pick (via NY Giants)
• Seventh round pick
• Seventh-round pick (via 49ers)

 

[BrianS]

Something I find interesting is that you are more likely to find successful players as UDFA's than you are to find them with a single pick in any round past 3.  Those 3rd round compensatory choices?  Largely worthless. 

Yes, I get it, there are a lot more UDFA's than there are drafted players in later rounds.  Basically, if you're fishing for starters you are simply not going to find anything in Rounds 4 - 7 with any regularity.

[Waldo]

I do wonder how it changes by team. Do teams that draft well draft that much better while teams that draft like us bring those % down to those averages?

QB in the 1st is a pretty obvious one for people who don't want to pick another 1st round QB next year. Like it or not that is the reality of the situation. 

[strato]

Some sweet spots by position even UDFA. 

18% from the 1st round is higher than I would have guessed for guards.

[jtm]

I'd love to see this stat broken down by each team during the same time period.  I bet some of the good teams aren't much better at drafting then the middle of the road teams but they make up for it in free agency.   

[Khyber53]

12 minutes ago, jtm said:

I'd love to see this stat broken down by each team during the same time period.  I bet some of the good teams aren't much better at drafting then the middle of the road teams but they make up for it in free agency.   

This ^ 100%.

[WhoKnows]

I don’t mean to rain on anyone’s parade but these %s aren’t surprising nor are the UDFAs. First, the %s align to the importance of the picks. QBs and Ts are generally drafted the highest. The rest of the positions are ones that tend to be taken later. Often the best C/Gs in the draft don’t get picked until round 2.

UDFAs are just volume. Teams sign more UDFAs than they draft every year. When you are dealing with 20 something UDFAs every year and 5 guys selected in round 3 to 7, is it surprising that there will be some UDFA starters?

I’m pretty sure that many of us draft guys have been saying for years that we should be erring on OL late in the draft but no one in Panthers GM chairs has listened for years until we realized we took a long snapper over a legit starting Guard. That next year we took another G in the 6th from the exact same school. That was one of those ahah moments where you realized Fitterer’s plan was just do what Seattle did and then just copy other team’s success when you’re on the hot seat. None of which worked.

[jasonluckydog]

Brock Purdy laughs at these stats. 

[CPantherKing]

This includes Trevor Lawrence, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Paxton Lynch, Mitchell Trubisky, DeShaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Jordan Love, and Zach Wilson.

Hard pass. Starting stats just show us how many wasted opportunities teams will take on these way too young over hyped college QBs.

QB: should be drafted 3rd round or later. Desperate for a QB, draft late 1st or 2nd round. Never draft a QB in the top 20 picks unless you're putting up 10+ win seasons with a good QB room and need to develop a future starter.

RB/WR are 3rd round or later. If they project to be an NFL ready day 1 starter, then round 2. If they are a multidimensional threat in the run, pass and return game with excellent hands, tracking and body control, then round 1.

TE: Look to trade for a developed starter. Draft TEs in top 60 who drop to 3rd round. Luxury pick if you're a consistent 10+ winning team in the late 1st or 2nd round.

OL: Day 3 pick in the 4th or later. 2nd/3rd round pick for players projecting to be immediate starters and a core leader on the OL. Luxury pick of a 1st round OT if you're a consistent 10+ win team.

All 1st round picks should default to defensive players in the middle of the field/playing in the box if there are no rare 1st/2nd round offensive exceptions. No luxury pass rush specialists, CB, or coverage FS in 1st round (2nd round at the earliest).

This draft strategy would mean over the past 10 drafts since 2015 the Panthers have been selecting luxury picks and not consistently adding to their core defense in the first 2 rounds with run defenders at DL, LB & S.

Championship offense can be built entirely from 3rd round and later picks while using free agency and UDFAs to fill it out. Insert the rare 1st round multidimensional skill player on offense a few times a decade and you're a championship contender.

 

[AU-panther]

This is why QBs, OTs, and I'm guessing edge (or DT's that can rush the QB) are valued so highly.