It's not just the Panthers... the NFL sucks at developing young QBs "it's a systemic problem"

[LinvilleGorge]

22 minutes ago, L-TownCat said:

1) College has adapted to simplifying the game to accommodate the athletes cycling thru without needing to teach them basically anything.  The NFL has not adjusted to this nor do they have the ability.

This is only going to keep getting worse with NIL and the transfer portal the way it currently is. Now if a guy isn't getting the PT he wants right now or has an opportunity to go to a bigger higher profile program there's a good chance he's gonna transfer out to the highest bidder. College systems are probably going to get even further simplified because now you're dealing with even more years over year roster turnover. There isn't development, everything has to be focused on plug and play. But again, that's not the fault of college coaches. They're not making the rules. They're just trying to do everything they can to win college football games within the structure of the rules they're given to abide by.

[OldhamA]

1 hour ago, strato said:

It takes time. Brady was talking about the colleges dropping the ball.

NFL has too long relied on college. MLB has the minors, and college. In the minors the organization can set up a consistent approach at each level which you don't get in college.

The push for athletic QBs has really changed things too. If a guy can run around and over people and throw a decent pass then you want him to touch the ball every play even if he can't read coverages.

There's a lot of truth to this - albeit it's not just about a push for athletic QBs.

The hyper focus on winning has lead to simpler and simpler offences taking hold in High School and College - ones that stress the defence vertically and horizontally. Some of that involves Read Option plays (and therefore the more athletic QBs), but it's generally simply about 'spreading' out the defence and making reads and throws as easy as possible for the QB.

The problem is that as the level of athletes on defence improve as you progress up the pyramid and the amount of time they have to game plan and practice increases, these reads and throws become more and more difficult until eventually you're left with guys sat on NFL rosters who simply can't read a coverage or recognise a blitz.

Obviously Bryce is the holy trifecta of not being able to read a coverage, read a blitz or make the required throw. 

[OldhamA]

2 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Brady is wrong. College coaches' jobs are to win college football games not develop NFL players. For the past couple of decades the college game has been the driver of innovation in the game. The new "pro style offense" is basically a college offense with additional layers of complexity. It's a lot more similar to a college offense than the traditional pro style offense.

I think it's the opposite. 

It's the NFL adapting to what the College players are able to run, rather than picking up on their innovation. I'm sure loads of OCs hate operating primarily from the Shotgun because it literally halves your playbook, but for most College QBs that's all they've ever known. I'm sure someone has run the numbers on the percentage of plays from Shotgun in the NFL and its rise - I bet it's startling, it's the base formation now. 

Edited 2 hours ago by OldhamA

[7CLOWNS]

Malik Willis comes to mind. A QB is as good as the pieces around him.

And that means from the top to bottom. Look at the bigger picture. There's a reason teams like the Packers and Steelers(Fields) can have success year after year. They have built a solid foundation. 

 

[LinvilleGorge]

21 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

I think it's the opposite. 

It's the NFL adapting to what the College players are able to run, rather than picking up on their innovation. I'm sure loads of OCs hate operating primarily from the Shotgun because it literally halves your playbook, but for most College QBs that's all they've ever known. I'm sure someone has run the numbers on the percentage of plays from Shotgun in the NFL and its rise - I bet it's startling, it's the base formation now. 

Partly that and partly because of the rules changes making easier on the offense. With the rules changes you're handicapping yourself if you don't run a more open concept pass happy offense. That's what the rules are designed to reward.

[CPantherKing]

You're all still falling for the media myth of the young 1st round QB? Jordan Palmer and his football camp cohorts like Mark Sanchez and Trent Dilfer push this myth to make money.

Young QBs DO NOT win championships. The 24 to 26 year olds that do this are dropped into ready made contenders that have built up a defense, have SB coaches, and have farmed up skill offensive players.

A mature QB ready to lead and build a team from the ground to be a contender is 28 to 30 years old. A vast majority of championship level QBs won't contend for a SB until they are in their early 30s.

This hasn't changed because the NFL decided to draft 5 1st round QBs year after year. All this brings us is more 1st round busts and QBs like Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco who step in to steady a team that wasted its draft capital.

[Mage]

I'm not convinced that the NFL is any better or worse at developing QBs now than they were 20 years ago.  I mean I'm sure there are some developmental issues at play, just not sure it is any different than it has been.

The biggest difference IMO is that NFL teams are waaaaaaaay more willing to invest a 1st round pick into a QB now than they were 15-20 years ago.  A guy like Colin Kaepernick would probably be a top 5 pick in 2025, whereas he went in the 2nd in 2011.  Would a guy like Trey Lance go top 3 in 2010?  Hell no.  Look at Russell Wilson - he didn't go until the 3rd round.  The standard for being a 1st round QB has dropped.

So it may seem like we're seeing more high-profile busts at the position, but we're also seeing teams reach for QBs way more than they have in the past.  Someone with Anthony Richardson's college resume doesn't go in the top 3 20 years ago.  

[Panthers Rhule]

2 hours ago, rayzor said:

QBs that could be good are never really given what they need or the time they need to develop. 

the unrealistic expectation is that they start day one. the reality is that very few, even among those who are taken early, can start day 1. 

we need a farm league. teams who draft QBs early should not be drafting QBs early if they expect the QB they draft to be able to start right away.

Stroud succeeding early is not at all the norm. most QBs fail when asked to start day 1. that's the reality.

Yes and there aren't 32 starting QBs in the league either. Too many teams and too many games. The NFL has regressed over the years and game quality is lacking. The other leagues are supposed to be farm leagues but it doesn't matter. You just won't have 32 no matter what they do. The move to super athletes playing QB at all levels has lead to this. It used to be those guys played other positions but now they are QBs who can't really QB. 

It has a trickle down effect too. OL can't block because they never had to. The fact that in today's game your QB must be able to run at least a little to survive is evidence of this as well. IMO they have ruined the game same as with the NBA. It's been simplified to the point of being boring. 

Just look at the top 10 this season.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Joe Burrow (Bengals)

Josh Allen (Bills)

Lamar Jackson (Ravens)

Dak Prescott (Cowboys)

Jalen Hurts (Eagles)

Brock Purdy (49ers)

Jordan Love (Packers)

Justin Herbert (Chargers)

Matthew Stafford (Rams)

Once we get to number 5 the stats look like this:

167

262

1,845

63.7

7.0

10

8

65

18

84.5

47.5

10 TDs and 8 INTs??? At number 5???

There was a time not that long ago that he wouldn't even be a starter. 

 

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

You're all still falling for the media myth of the young 1st round QB? Jordan Palmer and his football camp cohorts like Mark Sanchez and Trent Dilfer push this myth to make money.

Young QBs DO NOT win championships. The 24 to 26 year olds that do this are dropped into ready made contenders that have built up a defense, have SB coaches, and have farmed up skill offensive players.

A mature QB ready to lead and build a team from the ground to be a contender is 28 to 30 years old. A vast majority of championship level QBs won't contend for a SB until they are in their early 30s.

This hasn't changed because the NFL decided to draft 5 1st round QBs year after year. All this brings us is more 1st round busts and QBs like Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco who step in to steady a team that wasted its draft capital.

The problem is you gotta draft them to get them though. SB caliber 28-30 year old QBs are simply not available.

[PghPanther]

Midgets don't count

[rayzor]

20 minutes ago, CPantherKing said:

You're all still falling for the media myth of the young 1st round QB? Jordan Palmer and his football camp cohorts like Mark Sanchez and Trent Dilfer push this myth to make money.

Young QBs DO NOT win championships. The 24 to 26 year olds that do this are dropped into ready made contenders that have built up a defense, have SB coaches, and have farmed up skill offensive players.

A mature QB ready to lead and build a team from the ground to be a contender is 28 to 30 years old. A vast majority of championship level QBs won't contend for a SB until they are in their early 30s.

This hasn't changed because the NFL decided to draft 5 1st round QBs year after year. All this brings us is more 1st round busts and QBs like Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco who step in to steady a team that wasted its draft capital.

after reading that, i don't know if you watched the video. 

[rayzor]

21 minutes ago, Mage said:

I'm not convinced that the NFL is any better or worse at developing QBs now than they were 20 years ago.  I mean I'm sure there are some developmental issues at play, just not sure it is any different than it has been.

The biggest difference IMO is that NFL teams are waaaaaaaay more willing to invest a 1st round pick into a QB now than they were 15-20 years ago.  A guy like Colin Kaepernick would probably be a top 5 pick in 2025, whereas he went in the 2nd in 2011.  Would a guy like Trey Lance go top 3 in 2010?  Hell no.  Look at Russell Wilson - he didn't go until the 3rd round.  The standard for being a 1st round QB has dropped.

So it may seem like we're seeing more high-profile busts at the position, but we're also seeing teams reach for QBs way more than they have in the past.  Someone with Anthony Richardson's college resume doesn't go in the top 3 20 years ago.  

i think they've been trending heavily towards NO patience whatsoever with newer QBs. They expect immediate results and a large part of it doesn't have to do with winning strategies...it has to do with winning the fans over and keeping fans happy. What Tepper has been doing (and failing at) is a microcosm of what the league has been doing (and failing at) for years.  He just fails at a quicker pace than everyone doing what everyone else has been doing (and failing at).