Dave Canales is one and done.... part 2.

[electro's horse]

I made this thread earlier in the year after seeing the first two weeks of Canales Panthers. Those were disasters for the team and Bryce Young, and while it could be argued it was all due to Bryce, I think at this point we're seeing that's not the case. At the time I made that thread, I never thought in a million years Tepper would let Dave bench Bryce. He was benched the following Monday. A competent NFL veteran gave us some hope that Canales' system could actually work. In retrospect, those two games were against two of the worst defenses in the league, both teams that might have their head coaches fired by the end of the year, and are unfortunately looking more like statistical noise instead of a trend. 

over the past five weeks, the panthers have not just been bad, but uncompetitive. At no point past the second quarter has it felt like this team had a chance (maybe against the Falcons), and even today against the Broncos I think we all knew that 7 point lead wasn't going to last very long. Teams very quickly figured out what Canales likes to do and began taking it away. I think the Commanders and Bears were the best examples of this, and that was with a QB who isn't limited physically like Bryce. The team simply cannot compete as coached and comprised.

Today, it really felt like the Broncos defense went easy on them. Lots of base packages, not a lot of exotic coverages, didn't really look like the broncos even blitzed that much. I think this is because 9 games into the season, teams have enough film on the Panthers to know they don't need to do anything special to beat us. We don't have the players to overcome the coaching, and vice versa. Obviously Bryce isn't an NFL player, and I don't think there's anyone except the most dead end supporters who think otherwise, but the pieces are there on offense to produce more than we saw today. And let's have some self respect over the coming days and not talk about Bryce's cumulative stats. That was a classic Bryce Young garbage time spectacular. 

So where does this leave us with Dave Canales? I am going to list some of the reasons he was hired, how that has fared, and then summarize it with how this translates moving forward. 

Whiz Kid Offense Coordinator On the Rise - After getting burned twice by Ben Johnson, both for his All Star Coaching Staff and as head coach, you could see the appeal of trying to get the next Ben Johnson before he's Ben Johnson. Buying low early on a product that takes off is a good way for people to think you're smarter than you are in his line of business. The arguments for this mainly consisted of connecting dots from where he'd been and how their offensive production was, focusing more on the good years than the bad, of which he was around for plenty in Seattle. 

At the halfway point, this is one of the most anemic offenses in the league. Take the Raiders game out of the equation, and we're scoring about 12.5 points a game. You could even be more precise and take away points scored in complete garbage time: obviously the Broncos had called off all the dogs by the time the Panthers scored their second TD today. And we saw other horrifying things today like the inability to get plays in on time. Twice in three plays, with the game still theoretically in reach, is inexcusable. They could have easily had a 3rd DoG on that same drive. Even when you're bad, this is the kind of simple poo that you've got to have locked down. 

As it stands, this offense is generally getting worse every week by any metric you want to look at. The saints players might be approaching mutiny against Dennis Allen, but I can't imagine they'll pass up a chance to curb stomp the Panthers again; remember, Carolina is where other players hit their contract bonuses. The next two games are probably the easiest left on the Panthers schedule. 

QB Whisperer - this was always the least convincing for me. Geno Smith was a 9 year veteran when he got to start in 2023. He'd been with the Seahawks for 2 seasons before so he knew all the players, coaches, playbook etc. He wasn't just someone off the street. Baker Mayfield is doing fine without Canales this year, and had fine seasons with the Browns before he got to Carolina. He even had a fine game with the Rams after getting off a plane and being handed a jersey against the Raiders. From the macro level, it looks like the only thing that can stop Mayfield is being the quarterback for the Panthers. 

Bryce looked horrific in weeks 1 and 2, and after executing the opening game drive (scripted, practiced all week, short field, mostly dink and dunk behind the line of scrimmage) he couldn't muster a first down until late in the 3rd/early 4th. Bryce looks helpless. The deep game is almost exclusively sideline routes to cut down on the risks of interception. He isn't able to push the defense across the middle at the 2nd and 3rd level, presumably because he can't read the defense. Bryce still looks clueless as evidenced by him jogging out of bounds at the end of the 2nd half. Whatever Dave is whispering to Bryce, it hasn't helped, and frankly I'd like it to stop.

What the Panthers do with the QB situation moving forward isn't very interesting to me. Andy is what he is at this point in his career; a backup who can start 1-2 games, but he's just not going to be able to hold up over the season. Bryce simply cannot play the position in the NFL. 

Have to hire them before they're ready because of the team's reputation - i don't necessarily disagree with this. Panthers are an organizational disaster and no candidate with promise is going to want to hitch their wagon to this mess. But part of gambling is losing, and if you're taking bets on who you think is going to become a good HC, you run the risk of being wrong in your prognostication. At this point, Canales is not a good head coach. The team is not prepared to play on Sundays. And he's not even had to pick a defensive coordinator yet; Tepper didn't let Evero leave after Reich and co were fired, which is frankly unheard of in the NFL and a really good way to alienate potential coaches in the future. 

Coaches learn how to be good coaches by being in good organizations. Canales had one year as a coordinator in a very stable organization with very good players on offense. Where is this guy going to learn how to coach? To get the team ready during the week? To make adjustments at halftime? To manage the players? And moving forward, how is he going to get better? Has anyone seen anything to suggest he's going to learn on the job? Or that after a season, fans and players should be okay with the 2nd year head coach learning on the job? 

Sure, we might have to hire coaches a year early, but we need to be prepared to say the pie needs more time in the oven. And unfortunately, we can't just send Dave back to Tampa for six months in the hopes he picks up more knowledge.

Again, one team requested an interview with him. Tepper probably overthought this.

Conclusion - The reasons he was hired and the stated goals for his tenure have all flamed out. He's not a QB whisperer who knew the secret to fixing Bryce. He isn't some offensive guru or genius playcaller. He's shown he isn't ready to be a head coach. Tepper wanted the next Ben Johnson, and instead he got the first half of 2022 Ben McAdoo. 

I'll speak more about what I want for this team to do moving forward, but it involves a complete tear down and it's going to require some people with NFL experience and a deep rolodex to fix. Canales isn't this person. The money doesn't matter to Dave, and he's shown in the past he will cut bait with a coach when its looking like they're not up to the task. Sticking with Canales for another year continues with the delusions that this team is close, or just one player away, or blah blah blah whatever. Yeah sure Carolina is on its 5th coach in 3 years and that sounds awful, but is it really that different than 6th coach in 4 years?

Canales was hired as a hot up and coming offensive coordinator and that hasn't panned out. His next job audition is to be the man to rebuild the Panthers, and he is doing it right now, and he has shown nothing to indicate he's the man for that job. 

[JawnyBlaze]

Nope

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

yea he sucks. canales fanboys of 2024 = bryce fanboys of 2023. just blind faith for no reason

[BIGH2001]

And who do you expect to come here if we fire yet another coach at the end of the season? Canales has to be given time to draft or sign his QB of choice this offseason and he also deserves a defense that isn’t top 2-3 worst in league history. 

[App Panther]

He hasn't even had a high 1st round pick. Slow down

[AggieLean]

Unfortunately, you’ve gotta keep him around a year or two, but I agree, he’s not it. Get rid of him and Morgan in 2/3 years.

Edited October 28 by AggieLean

[Shocker]

Eventually you have an exercise patience and give someone the opportunity to build the team.  I think Canalas has done what he can with a team with very little talent and a ton of injuries.  Course our owner is Tepper but I can dream 

[electro's horse]

Just now, BIGH2001 said:

And who do you expect to come here if we fire yet another coach at the end of the season? Canales has to be given time to draft or sign his QB of choice this offseason and he also deserves a defense that isn’t top 2-3 worst in league history. 

Getting paid out a six year contract after working only one year isn’t the deterrent you think it is. There are not many jobs in any given cycle and there are far more qualified candidates than openings. 

bryce was his choice. As a matter of fact, he said Bryce was one of the main reasons he took the job.

why “must” he be allowed to sign or draft a qb? He’s never done it in the past. He’s never had a role in personnel. Letting him draft a qb just gives him a lifeline when he’s shown he doesn’t deserve one. 

what did the defense have to do with today? Panthers offense had the lead or a tie for most of the first half and couldn’t get a first down. 

[electro's horse]

2 minutes ago, App Panther said:

He hasn't even had a high 1st round pick. Slow down

So? Has Mike tomlin ever had a high first round pick? Andy Reid? Has sean mcvay ever even had a draft pick?

besides, that looming high first rounder should be earmarked for defense. 

[hepcat]

I’m not going to judge him in his first year. The QB room is embarrassing. The team is mind numblingly awful because Scott Fitterer is the worst GM in NFL history and David Tepper is the worst owner in NFL history. They have to give Canales a chance with a QB he chooses. 

[BIGH2001]

2 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

Getting paid out a six year contract after working only one year isn’t the deterrent you think it is. There are not many jobs in any given cycle and there are far more qualified candidates than openings. 

bryce was his choice. As a matter of fact, he said Bryce was one of the main reasons he took the job.

why “must” he be allowed to sign or draft a qb? He’s never done it in the past. He’s never had a role in personnel. Letting him draft a qb just gives him a lifeline when he’s shown he doesn’t deserve one. 

what did the defense have to do with today? Panthers offense had the lead or a tie for most of the first half and couldn’t get a first down. 

Answer the first question. What reputable coach will come here if we fire another one after a single season?

[The Natural]

TLDR

[Hoenheim]

That would be malpractice if he doesn't even get to pick his own QB

[BIGH2001]

7 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

Getting paid out a six year contract after working only one year isn’t the deterrent you think it is. There are not many jobs in any given cycle and there are far more qualified candidates than openings. 

bryce was his choice. As a matter of fact, he said Bryce was one of the main reasons he took the job.

why “must” he be allowed to sign or draft a qb? He’s never done it in the past. He’s never had a role in personnel. Letting him draft a qb just gives him a lifeline when he’s shown he doesn’t deserve one. 

what did the defense have to do with today? Panthers offense had the lead or a tie for most of the first half and couldn’t get a first down. 

Bryce sucks. Who cares what he said publicly last January. It was reasonable to think that he could be salvaged with improved weapons. Instead he got worse and his limitations are the same as they were before. How is that Canales’s fault? Completely ignoring this horrendous defense just makes your entire post non-credible.