Panthers in the Market for a QB (again): 2025 Draft

[MHS831]

It is likely that the Panthers will have the first overall selection in this draft.  In my view, Colorado's Travis Hunter is the best player and best prospect, followed by Tetairoa McMillan--the 6'5", 4.5 40, excellent hands and route running WR from Arizona.  While you can argue that the Panthers do not want to take a QB and will draft a pass rusher/edge, you could be right--but how good were we with Burns and our current QBs?  We need to draft a QB, but at #1 overall, can we move back and still get our guy?  I think so, because I would be happy with Ward or Nussmeire.  Here are my thoughts:::

If navigating the draft, be aware of the other teams who might also need a QB (all with 1 or 2 wins except Steelers): 

• Raiders  (Probably the team that needs a QB more than ever.  Tired of retreads--will be aggressive in the draft to get a QB)
• Titans (not sure Levis is the answer and I expect the Titans to go after a QB--watch out for Jones trade with Giants or DW in Cleveland; they have success bringing in a QB and turning him around)
• Giants (Wanted a QB last year; will definitely push for a QB this year.  I see them as a trade up partner)
• Browns (so glad we did not sign DW---if you think the Bryce pick was bad...However, i expect Cleveland to stick with DW for 1 more season and upgrade their OL),
• Steelers  (not sure the Fields experiment worked-but they won 4 lost 2.  Great coaching.
• Dolphins (Tua's concussions will cause Fish to go fishing)

My process when evaluating QBs:  I consider traits and skills like leadership, injury history, release time, pocket presence, arm strength, accuracy, size, running ability, and I also consider supporting cast.  I predict upside, longevity, and I ask myself this question:  "Down by 5 with 2 minutes to go and no timeouts, who do you want as your QB?"

My thinking--Trade back: I am not sure (after reviewing the stats) I want a dual threat, zone read QB.  When we drafted Cam, I said (on the Huddle) that we'd be lucky to get a decade out of him. He was 6-5 and 250.  "In 2010, the year before Cam Newton sparked the NFL’s zone read revolution, quarterbacks combined for 1,377 rush attempts, which includes both scrambles and designed runs. Last season, we saw more than 2,400 quarterback runs."  Meanwhile, injuries to QBs increased.  In this chart, you see the number of QBs that started an NFL game has gradually increased since Cam's entrance, and it really jumps when they added a 17th game.  So you have to consider longevity as well, and a smart, disciplined QB that does not have to rely on his legs is perhaps the less flashy, long-term play.  This might sound racial but it is not, at least in my thinking, because my rationale applies to concerns in Buffalo (Allen), for example.  When a QB runs, the take a hit in most cases.  They add up.  Every time you are hit, you take a risk of missing time.  So while buying a Ferrari is more exciting than a Honda Odyssey, only one will take the family where they want to go.  

  (see source at bottom)

So how do you keep your QB under center all season?  You have a QB who can read the defense quickly, has a quick release, has quality check downs, and a STUD OL.  If we get a stud TE and maybe another WR, we could find a QB who can play in this system without having to run 10-12 plays a game--and that includes avoiding sacks by throwing it away.  So far this season, Sanders has carried the football 43 times--22 sacks in five games--but that also indicates a potential processing breakdown (which is why I factor in "supporting cast").  He does not throw it away.  The result?  -43 yards rushing and a QB who might take a beating.  Ward has run the football less (25 times for 128 yards), which might suggest that he is wiser when choosing to run, but he has only been sacked 7 times in 5 games.  We have so many needs (C, WR, TE, DT, Edge, S, and OT) and a strong OL, I think we can draft a pocket passer (with mobility) who is an alpha, smart, and checks a lot of boxes. 

Taking all this NAWLIDGE into consideration, and predicting where some of these emerging QBs might be at the end of the season, This is my speculative list of QB talent:

1. Cam Ward, Miami.  So far, he is checking a lot of boxes, and if he continues to play well, he is a QB who does not seem to take a lot of sacks, can move, and is accurate.  This one was easy.  The rest?  A bit controversial, but I live on the edge.

2. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU.  6'2" about 205. Who? That's right. Quick release, can throw on run with accuracy.  Gamer. He has been on the bench behind a pretty good LSU QB (Daniels) biding his time and learning.  Some rough patches early on, but he pulled himself out of them and finished games strong (see Ole Miss).  That is character.  Think "Tony Romo" with perhaps a bit more upside.  His father was an NFL QB and a coach, so he breaths football.  He could have gone portal, but stayed at LSU.  Highlights from this season:  https://youtu.be/IY4X7xxJJ9g?si=shssKWlGqqlRyCrH

3. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado.  His completion percentage is gaudy.  The problem I have with him, and you could blame his supporting cast, but he has been sacked 23 times in 5 games.  That tells me he is not getting the ball out or throwing it away fast enough.  Does that mean his processing is slow?   WRs/TEs weak?  Play calling? Could be a lot.  We have that now.  Colorado is not, like Indiana, winning.  So I will look past the hype and the stats (offense) and put him in the "high risk, high reward" category.  It just don't smell right to me. Many may differ.

4.  Kurtis Rourke, Indiana.  Absolutely shocking here, but long term, this 6-5, 235 QB from Ontario can flat out play.  He can process and scan the field.  Was successful at Ohio U.  Has won 7 games at Indiana and no game has been close, with Indiana scoring 41 or more points each outing (averaging around 50) and the most any opponent has scored (Maryland) has been 28.  This kid is winning at Indiana, folks.  Who does that?  Experienced, in his fifth year as a starting QB (Ohio/Indiana).  Good arm.  A bit awkward feet, but more mobile than you think.  Able to see over the OL (around 8 inches taller than Bryce).  https://youtu.be/lZd-VnSBieI?si=VaVgkFojJV7fZU8x   

 

5.  Carson Beck, Georgia.  Beck struggled against Kentucky and Alabama earlier this season, dropping him out of the top 3 QB discussions.  However, he lost Ladd and Brock and Van Pran (OL) during the offseason--and last year, Ladd and Bowers were about all he had to throw to.  Beck's last 2 games have been better, but this could change.  He is tall (6-4) and has upside.

6.  Quinn Ewers, Texas.  If heart and alpha was all it takes, I think I would have Ewers #1 overall.  However, he is injury prone.  Slightly careless with the football, but he has had a stable full of WRs and TEs at Texas.  The OL has been solid as well.  How is he when he is not on the best team?  6' 2" and about 220, experienced--had the mental toughness to stay at Texas and fight off the Manning shouters...a winner.

SECOND ROUND

7. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon.  Listed at 6 feet tall, probably 5' 11" at best, Gabriel has 6 years of college experience under his belt. His QB rating has been in the mid 80s on average, and he played well vs Ohio State (23 of 34 for 341 yards, 67.6%, 2 TDs, 0 Ints).  He has mobility and has only been sacked twice in five games.  Think Russell Wilson (ceiling).  If he falls to the second round and we did not pick a QB in round 1, this could be the steal of the draft--if you don't mind another short QB.

8. Drew Allar, Penn State.  I like him.  He is a work in progress, but he is only 20 years old.   The game will slow down for him.  At 6'5" and 240, he is a big QB completing over 70% of his passes in a QB-friendly offense.  He threw 3 picks in a win vs USC, one was a hail mary, but he is usually safe with the ball.  If I drafted Allar, I would sign Andy back and have Allar play behind him--he'd be my 2026 QB.

9.  Will Howard, Ohio State.  Perhaps yet another name you are not seeing yet, but despite the late slide at Oregon last week, Howard has been solid at OSU.  6' 4" and about 235, I was very impressed with his fire and leadership in a hostile and loud Oregon stadium-he had a 94.1 QB rating in that game--in other words, he stepped up. completing 73% of his passes with 14 TDs and 3 interceptions, hard to believe the Ohio St QB is under valued and under the radar--but I see it that way.

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/12/11/23997145/quarterback-injuries-justin-herbert-trevor-lawrence-joe-burrow

[LinvilleGorge]

Dillon Gabriel is a poor man's Bryce. He's a late round pick.

I have always said that if you don't have a franchise QB and you think there's a guy available who has a decent chance of being one then there's no decision to be made. Draft him.

[Shocker]

If Gabriel and Howard go in the second round I will be shocked.    They could go undrafted.

After today I have Sanders, Ward then Beck

Edited 2 hours ago by Shocker

[LinvilleGorge]

5 minutes ago, Shocker said:

If Gabriel and Howard go in the second round I will be shocked.    They could go undrafted.

After today I have Sanders, Ward then Beck

I think Howard will be a mid-round pick. He checks quite a few boxes but doesn't project as a starter IMO. I think he's a 4th or 5th rounder.

I honestly don't think I'd spend a draft pick on Gabriel.

[Jaxel]

Ward for me. That kid can ball.

[ChuckWag78]

Cam Ward scares the hell out of me. Was a turnover machine last year, and just does wild things at times. The splash plays are very intriguing, but I thinks that is going to fizzle out in the pros. 

I want NOTHING to do with Sanders. 

Edited 2 hours ago by ChuckWag78

[tukafan21]

Who is this Tetairoa McMillan you speak of?

Never heard of him

[CPF4LIFE]

I love the constant gymnastics to keep ranking shedeur below other guys. Its hilarious. 

[ForJimmy]

The Illinois and Syracuse QBs don’t look bad, especially if they can be had later. Trade the top pick to the Raiders or a team that loves Sanders. 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Great post 

I believe in Canales, which ever QB he likes I'm all for it 

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I think Howard will be a mid-round pick. He checks quite a few boxes but doesn't project as a starter IMO. I think he's a 4th or 5th rounder.

I honestly don't think I'd spend a draft pick on Gabriel.

I suspect this draft looks more like the 2022 QB draft than the 2024 QB Draft and you see very few first round guys taken.

[CamWhoaaCam]

1 hour ago, tukafan21 said:

Who is this Tetairoa McMillan you speak of?

Never heard of him

Wrong time to be posting this.

[csx]

When rebuilding don't reach. Just aquire. It's like investing in the s&p during a recession. Don't get distracted.

 

[amcoolio]

I think Dalton is good enough for the next couple of years. But I don't know about drafting a WR/CB at the top of the draft. My gut says trade down and hope to get another first in 2026 draft, draft a Parsons or Warner type, then use 2026 to draft a QB and WR combo in the first round like the Bears did this year