Really Good Video Analysis of Andy Dalton vs Falcons

[Hoenheim]

Andy Dalton making some questionable decision making. I watched a longer video from Unnecessary Blutness and he was saying similar things about Dalton not progressing through his reads/beyond read 1/check down. Hyper focusing on Diontae Johnson. 

Legette and Coker getting open alot of times, just not getting the ball or getting it late.

Interception when Dalton was targeting Ian Thomas was particularly egregious.  From our view he immediately looks like he's double or triple covered even before Dalton releases the ball. Bryce-like decision/throw there. And there was a dude wide open closer to Dalton on this play. 

Watching this kinda makes me want to tell Andy to use Diontae more as a distraction and throw it to XL and Coker more. Hell even Mingo couple times was wide open. But I don't blame him for not trusting Mingo. 

Looking on the bright side, the Oline giving Andy time to throw even with Christensen and Nijman filling in. And our rookie receivers are getting open. 

 

 

[Hoenheim]

Something else I noticed is even with our defense getting spanked all game long. This game was fairly close score wise through most of it.

No real excuse to not give Chubba bare minimum 25 carries a game. Dude confidently averages 5.0+ ypc a game 

He's only gotten over 20 carries once this year vs the Raiders and we won that game. Come the fug on Canales, it's not rocket science.

 

 

[Waldo]

Run the ball, even if it's Blackshear over Sanders who can't run for poo. 

Dalton is Dalton. Some good and some bad. He always had more turnovers then you wanted but he also scores. If he is made to feel like it's on him that's what you get. Chubba with 20 caries going into the 4th would be a great sign vs the crap 13 that were called on Sunday. 

I get what the leauge averages are but there is nothing average about this team. Just run the ball and if Sanders is in the way then trade him while eating his cap so someone else can get a try. 

Edited October 18 by Waldo

[strato]

I watched the Bluntness video you are referring to. 

It was a good video. I don't don't agree with some of his stuff but that one had a lot of good content, covered a lot of bases.

Somewhere in there was the run vs pass ratio stuff, and he showed a list that put us 8th most passing team at something like 64%. Was that it?

The next thing after that was another stat ranking and I think it was running when we were behind (?) and we actually ran more than the mean or average. It was worth watching for the people talking about the run pass balance. 

And had that Dalton stuff which was good. He talked a lot about Dalton and getting the ball out fast and the 1st read preoccupation I guess you could call it. 

If you think about it, Diontae is the first read much of the time and on those times it does make good sense to throw quick because most of those corners can't get on him, he gets open fast and they can't recover that fast. ? 

I wonder if there is an element of 'training wheels' going on right now that could be a hangover from how the scheme was built for Young. Who absolutely needed to get the ball out that fast for a few reasons. And it is good to protect Dalton from being sacked too I guess. He is all we have. 

It can be a pretty interesting conversation, exploring reasons for it or consequences from it. 

[csx]

4 hours ago, Hoenheim said:

Something else I noticed is even with our defense getting spanked all game long. This game was fairly close score wise through most of it.

No real excuse to not give Chubba bare minimum 25 carries a game. Dude confidently averages 5.0+ ypc a game 

He's only gotten over 20 carries once this year vs the Raiders and we won that game. Come the fug on Canales, it's not rocket science.

 

 

Derek Henry is the league leader in attempts and averages under 20 carries a game going over 20 3 times.

I'd like to see more but over 20 is rather high 

 

 

Edited October 18 by csx

[strato]

1 hour ago, csx said:

Derek Henry is the league leader in attempts and averages under 20 carries a game going over 20 3 times.

I'd like to see more but over 20 is rather high 

 

 

I think:

that the 'single workhorse that gets stronger the more carries he gets' model has been mostly retired. 
It is more effective to use two hammers. The wearing down thing is largely still there with the OL run blocking but you add a fresh set of legs. Two sets helps them both stay fresh. 

Steven Davis vs Double Trouble? Who lasts longer?

I mean, it is great to see a back that loves contact and inflicts punishment but it is rare.

[CanadianCat]

9 minutes ago, strato said:

I think:

that the 'single workhorse that gets stronger the more carries he gets' model has been mostly retired. 
It is more effective to use two hammers. The wearing down thing is largely still there with the OL run blocking but you add a fresh set of legs. Two sets helps them both stay fresh. 

Steven Davis vs Double Trouble? Who lasts longer?

I mean, it is great to see a back that loves contact and inflicts punishment but it is rare.

Steven Davis.. havent heard that name in a while.. Loved that guy. 

[strato]

2003 you know it. Still my favorite team by a very small margin over 2015. And they were great too, it is just that the 2003 season was so improbable and we showed a LOT better in that SB than in 2015.

I think someone broke Moose's record for longest TD maybe but that was freaking great. 

If Fox hadn't greedily chased those 2 pointers....

If the Pats didn't cheat taping the walk through....

If Kasay.... 

 

[frankw]

I love a good ground game as much as anyone else too. But it is at the end of the day a passing league. Canales was brought in here for his prowess in that area. His run game in Tampa as OC wasn't even that productive. At the same time we have to let him get his own guy. Dalton while a great guy is mid at best and he's at the end of his career. Until then there's only so much you can expect. Just please no more Bryce Young.

[CPF4LIFE]

That dudes a clown. He is one of those fans that's still lowkey butt hurt about bryce getting benched and wants him back on the field. So of course he has been way more critical of Dalton. I stopped listening to him. 

[Panther53521]

37 minutes ago, strato said:

2003 you know it. Still my favorite team by a very small margin over 2015. And they were great too, it is just that the 2003 season was so improbable and we showed a LOT better in that SB than in 2015.

I think someone broke Moose's record for longest TD maybe but that was freaking great. 

If Fox hadn't greedily chased those 2 pointers....

If the Pats didn't cheat taping the walk through....

If Kasay.... 

 

Still the longest

[CPantherKing]

Some here have it wrong when based on hard numbers that determine a game. Here's a lengthy and deep analysis. Don't continue reading if you are not willing to look at the good and bad of your favorite players.

The pass blocking was horrendous in the first half, and Dalton still kept the game competitive.

Dalton was obviously directed to throw it to Thomas. Thomas ran his route horribly and didn't come back to the ball. The DB had an easy path to just race in front of Thomas. He's a TE who should be using his body to keep a DB from doing that. Lazy play by Thomas. The throw was good and it was the correct read (delivered 15 yards downfield with 3 to 5 yards to the sideline is where that ball was placed for Thomas).

Here's how the drives went for the Falcons game.

Drive 1: Ekwonu killed it.

Drive 2: Heavy Dalton passing (Johnson & Moore). TD

Drive 3: Dalton short passing (J.Sanders & XL). Punt

Drive 4: Heavy Hubbard touches. FG

Drive 5: Hubbard/M.Sanders touches. Punt (Running game failed and forced Dalton into 2 long passing downs. Got a PI to keep drive alive on one.)

Drive 6: Heavy Dalton passing (5 targeted receivers). TD

Drive 7: Running & short passing game to open the 2nd half. FG (Hubbard, Mingo, M.Sanders, J.Sanders, Thomas) OL ended the drive with a 2nd and 19. This is the ONLY drive the Panthers had for 3Q. Defensive failure

Drive 8: Heavy Hubbard touches with TE targets. INT (Ian Thomas gave up INT with a lazy route and zero awareness of using his body to keep the DB from easily crossing his body. The play was called for Thomas and the play worked perfectly with him cutting through the zone to a wide open pocket. All Thomas had to do was get his body in between the trailing defender and the ball while staying on a line to the sideline. Thomas rounded his break and drifted to 18 yards deep at the end of his route. Gave the advantage to the speed of the trail defender. Pass was on point for a 15 yard crossing route. Play call was good. Receiver execution of a dig route was awful).

The defense and Thomas in the 2nd half ended the game. Scoring % is 50% after this INT. That's still good for an offense.

[Down 15 points with 5 minutes left. Running game has produced 6 points in 5 of 8 drives lasting 3 to 5 minutes per drive. Dalton has been successful on 2 of the 3 drives he was called on with the 1 failed drive stopped with bad pass blocking and relying on a TE.]

Drive 9: All pass with defense protecting a lead. OL pass blocking fails again putting Dalton into a 2nd and 20. Dalton gets it to a 4th & 4 and throws incomplete with Ekwonu (one on one) thrown into him in 2 seconds forcing a high throw. (Canales, Dalton and Johnson were on point for a likely 1st down. Ekwonu pass blocking failed.) Turnover on downs.

Drive 10: 2 minutes to go down 18 points. All pass. INT (Dalton didn't anticipate the CB jumping the route after reading a deep zone)

The defense only stopped 2 drives from scoring.

The OL lacks discipline and is a liability with their pass blocking. No one can excuse Ekwonu for what he does in pass blocking. It continues to cost the Panthers late in games, and on critical 4th down pass plays.

The OL is very good at run blocking, but the RBs are not as good as fans want to believe. They are not playmakers to open up a game with a strong run blocking OL. The RBs are only good enough for controlling clock with a lead (and that needs to be more consistent). Too many missed opportunities from the RBs behind this OL.

The TEs and Mingo are liabilities in the passing game. Their mistakes plus the lack of discipline on the OL is leading to way too many 3rd & longs. 7 of 12 3rd downs were long. 4 of the 7 were 3rd & 10+.

The most efficient part of the team against the Falcons was Dalton, Johnson, Coker and Canales' play calling. XL is close to being in this group.

Negative plays that resulted in 3rd & longs, failed 4th downs, INTs, and fumbles lost : Hubbard 3; Ekwonu 4; Thomas 2; J.Sanders 1; M.Sanders 1; Lewis 1; Nijman 1; Dalton 1.

1st downs/TDs converted: Rushing: Hubbard 6; M.Sanders 1; Dalton 1. Passing: Dalton 13 (Johnson 6; M.Sanders 1; Coker 2; J.Sanders 1; Legette 2; Hubbard 1).

Top 3 liabilities: 1. Ekwonu 2. Hubbard 3. Thomas.

Top 3 strengths: 1. Dalton 2. Hubbard 3. Johnson

Anyone with a 1 doesn’t make a list. The goal is to have ZERO players on the liability list and 3 or more players on the strengths list.

Then you want the opposite for the opponent to gauge the defense. Only 1 player of the Falcons made the liability list (Algiers with back to back runs for 0 yards on the 10th drive (final) of the game). Not a single Falcons OL with more than 1 critical mistake. Falcons only had 2 legit 3rd and longs all game (4 if you add the final plays of the game for them with the kneel downs). The Falcons converted 25 times in 9 drives. That makes them look better than the 5-0 Chiefs offense.

Panthers' conversions by week: 1. 11; 2. 7; 3. 24; 4. 24; 5. 14; 6. 21.

Dalton has been the key factor in the offense consistently converting 20+. The Bears game was planned around Hubbard carrying it to keep the Panthers defense off the field, and that failed. That is the only game Dalton has started that there hasn't been a single drive over 4 minutes in the 1st half (Dalton targeted 2 WRs on 2 passes until the 2 minute warning against the Bears).

Realize the pass blocking OL and their discipline is a liability. The RBs lack of consistency is a liability. The TEs are a huge problem. The Panthers need a 3rd down back desperately, and Mingo should be converted to that role for now.

The run blocking OL is carrying average RBs. Dalton is good enough to win and has done well playing through poor pass blocking. The receivers outside of Mingo are executing well. Canales is getting receivers open and calling plays to beat the defense.

That's the state of the offense. Good enough to win, but not on at a level to put up 40 points per game. The offense has to worry about keeping up with their defense rather than simply executing to be good and win games at the end.

List Dalton's critical mistakes that have ended a drive. Ekwonu, Mingo & Thomas are responsible for 3 of his 4 interceptions. His 3rd or 4th and short passes have failed how many times without being impacted by a terrible block or dropped pass? 

45 drives to look at. I've already told you 3 that are not on Dalton. 10 resulted in TDs & 3 were end of game/half. That leaves 29 drives. Go see how they ended, and who's responsible. I already know, and I don't think some of you are willing to acknowledge who the drive killers are on the offense. It's not Dalton leading the way.

Tough truths.

[frankw]

11 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

Some here have it wrong when based on hard numbers that determine a game. Here's a lengthy and deep analysis. Don't continue reading if you are not willing to look at the good and bad of your favorite players.

The pass blocking was horrendous in the first half, and Dalton still kept the game competitive.

Dalton was obviously directed to throw it to Thomas. Thomas ran his route horribly and didn't come back to the ball. The DB had an easy path to just race in front of Thomas. He's a TE who should be using his body to keep a DB from doing that. Lazy play by Thomas. The throw was good and it was the correct read (delivered 15 yards downfield with 3 to 5 yards to the sideline is where that ball was placed for Thomas).

Here's how the drives went for the Falcons game.

Drive 1: Ekwonu killed it.

Drive 2: Heavy Dalton passing (Johnson & Moore). TD

Drive 3: Dalton short passing (J.Sanders & XL). Punt

Drive 4: Heavy Hubbard touches. FG

Drive 5: Hubbard/M.Sanders touches. Punt (Running game failed and forced Dalton into 2 long passing downs. Got a PI to keep drive alive on one.)

Drive 6: Heavy Dalton passing (5 targeted receivers). TD

Drive 7: Running & short passing game to open the 2nd half. FG (Hubbard, Mingo, M.Sanders, J.Sanders, Thomas) OL ended the drive with a 2nd and 19. This is the ONLY drive the Panthers had for 3Q. Defensive failure

Drive 8: Heavy Hubbard touches with TE targets. INT (Ian Thomas gave up INT with a lazy route and zero awareness of using his body to keep the DB from easily crossing his body. The play was called for Thomas and the play worked perfectly with him cutting through the zone to a wide open pocket. All Thomas had to do was get his body in between the trailing defender and the ball while staying on a line to the sideline. Thomas rounded his break and drifted to 18 yards deep at the end of his route. Gave the advantage to the speed of the trail defender. Pass was on point for a 15 yard crossing route. Play call was good. Receiver execution of a dig route was awful).

The defense and Thomas in the 2nd half ended the game. Scoring % is 50% after this INT. That's still good for an offense.

[Down 15 points with 5 minutes left. Running game has produced 6 points in 5 of 8 drives lasting 3 to 5 minutes per drive. Dalton has been successful on 2 of the 3 drives he was called on with the 1 failed drive stopped with bad pass blocking and relying on a TE.]

Drive 9: All pass with defense protecting a lead. OL pass blocking fails again putting Dalton into a 2nd and 20. Dalton gets it to a 4th & 4 and throws incomplete with Ekwonu (one on one) thrown into him in 2 seconds forcing a high throw. (Canales, Dalton and Johnson were on point for a likely 1st down. Ekwonu pass blocking failed.) Turnover on downs.

Drive 10: 2 minutes to go down 18 points. All pass. INT (Dalton didn't anticipate the CB jumping the route after reading a deep zone)

The defense only stopped 2 drives from scoring.

The OL lacks discipline and is a liability with their pass blocking. No one can excuse Ekwonu for what he does in pass blocking. It continues to cost the Panthers late in games, and on critical 4th down pass plays.

The OL is very good at run blocking, but the RBs are not as good as fans want to believe. They are not playmakers to open up a game with a strong run blocking OL. The RBs are only good enough for controlling clock with a lead (and that needs to be more consistent). Too many missed opportunities from the RBs behind this OL.

The TEs and Mingo are liabilities in the passing game. Their mistakes plus the lack of discipline on the OL is leading to way too many 3rd & longs. 7 of 12 3rd downs were long. 4 of the 7 were 3rd & 10+.

The most efficient part of the team against the Falcons was Dalton, Johnson, Coker and Canales' play calling. XL is close to being in this group.

Negative plays that resulted in 3rd & longs, failed 4th downs, INTs, and fumbles lost : Hubbard 3; Ekwonu 4; Thomas 2; J.Sanders 1; M.Sanders 1; Lewis 1; Nijman 1; Dalton 1.

1st downs/TDs converted: Rushing: Hubbard 6; M.Sanders 1; Dalton 1. Passing: Dalton 13 (Johnson 6; M.Sanders 1; Coker 2; J.Sanders 1; Legette 2; Hubbard 1).

Top 3 liabilities: 1. Ekwonu 2. Hubbard 3. Thomas.

Top 3 strengths: 1. Dalton 2. Hubbard 3. Johnson

Anyone with a 1 doesn’t make a list. The goal is to have ZERO players on the liability list and 3 or more players on the strengths list.

Then you want the opposite for the opponent to gauge the defense. Only 1 player of the Falcons made the liability list (Algiers with back to back runs for 0 yards on the 10th drive (final) of the game). Not a single Falcons OL with more than 1 critical mistake. Falcons only had 2 legit 3rd and longs all game (4 if you add the final plays of the game for them with the kneel downs). The Falcons converted 25 times in 9 drives. That makes them look better than the 5-0 Chiefs offense.

Panthers' conversions by week: 1. 11; 2. 7; 3. 24; 4. 24; 5. 14; 6. 21.

Dalton has been the key factor in the offense consistently converting 20+. The Bears game was planned around Hubbard carrying it to keep the Panthers defense off the field, and that failed. That is the only game Dalton has started that there hasn't been a single drive over 4 minutes in the 1st half (Dalton targeted 2 WRs on 2 passes until the 2 minute warning against the Bears).

Realize the pass blocking OL and their discipline is a liability. The RBs lack of consistency is a liability. The TEs are a huge problem. The Panthers need a 3rd down back desperately, and Mingo should be converted to that role for now.

The run blocking OL is carrying average RBs. Dalton is good enough to win and has done well playing through poor pass blocking. The receivers outside of Mingo are executing well. Canales is getting receivers open and calling plays to beat the defense.

That's the state of the offense. Good enough to win, but not on at a level to put up 40 points per game. The offense has to worry about keeping up with their defense rather than simply executing to be good and win games at the end.

List Dalton's critical mistakes that have ended a drive. Ekwonu, Mingo & Thomas are responsible for 3 of his 4 interceptions. His 3rd or 4th and short passes have failed how many times without being impacted by a terrible block or dropped pass? 

45 drives to look at. I've already told you 3 that are not on Dalton. 10 resulted in TDs & 3 were end of game/half. That leaves 29 drives. Go see how they ended, and who's responsible. I already know, and I don't think some of you are willing to acknowledge who the drive killers are on the offense. It's not Dalton leading the way.

Tough truths.

With Icky this is the big evaluation year. Next season they have to decide on his fifth year option. At this point unless he finishes the season very strong they have to consider bringing in competition in the event his struggles carry over into next season.

Right now the truth is that despite our needs across the roster. We could remove Ian Thomas and Jonathan Mingo from the equation and improve.

I was hard on Canales following the loss but truly he is in a tough spot with this roster that our current GM has had a hand in both good and bad in his time with Scott Fitterer who was btw very high on Ian Thomas. The Panthers at this point in time IMO need to take a page out of Dave Gettleman's book and do some no nonsense trimming of the roster. It's already depleted. Get the known low effort guys and the washed up veterans out and start rolling in the youth movement. We are at least a few years away from truly competing for anything of significant relevancy anyways.