Hurricane Helene thread - Not a football thread but y’all be safe *keep politics, conspiracy theories, and and tinderbox squabbles out of this*

[Panthers Fan 69]

2 minutes ago, amcoolio said:

I’m still without power. haven’t really been keeping up with the Panthers or news. absolutely crazy scenes, it’s like something you’d see on the walking dead. 

im safe and don’t need anything, im just sad for the poor people that live outside of town limits in all these towns that have to start over. many didn’t see it coming. don’t care to watch the news and didn’t believe it. 

That’s been the consensus. But, I don’t how anyone would have known. 

[jayboogieman]

6 minutes ago, Panthers Fan 69 said:

I don’t how anyone would have known. 

Reading the history of the area for one, common sense about living in flood planes, and paying attention to weather reports that kept stating it would be bad.

[strato]

So far you can still trust the weather sites. Even if you don't trust the news it is important to keep up with weather threats. 

The hyping of minor incidents by people like The Weather Channel gets to be sort like crying wolf all the time, got to go online to NOAA and the weather geek type of places.

I use this site and it pretty much gets you to everything you need to monitor the GoM and Atlantic weather threats:  https://spaghettimodels.com/

by the hyping I mean, for a week they have their landfall plastered all over the screen and the reporters scaring people into preparing and then the thing turns to the right at a different place than they thought and all that stuff is forgotten as they rush to the new site. 

The people that were in the barrel have done all their prep and don't have that payoff so they will not heed warnings as fast the next time. 

That's why I don't watch them any more. I just go to the models. Like they do. 

Edited October 2 by strato

[Panthers Fan 69]

20 minutes ago, jayboogieman said:

Reading the history of the area for one, common sense about living in flood planes, and paying attention to weather reports that kept stating it would be bad.

No one knew. You didn’t. I didn’t.  Weather people didn’t the locals didn’t. It was a 100 year flood. Those don’t happen every weekend. Trust me if people would have known they wouldn’t have found 50 bodies in the last five hours in Avery county and 200 plus so far. 

Edited October 2 by Panthers Fan 69

[strato]

1 hour ago, Panthers Fan 69 said:

No one knew. You didn’t. I didn’t.  Weather people didn’t the locals didn’t. It was a 100 year flood. Those don’t happen every weekend. Trust me if people would have known they wouldn’t have found 50 bodies in the last five hours in Avery county and 200 plus so far. 

The days of not having much advance warning are over. They were still tracking hurricanes via reports from ships at sea in 1940 and certainly were in 1916.

If you go back and read the warnings and predictions there were clues that it was not going to be good. 

I guess one thing that will come out of it is that people WILL pay attention to the forecasts and now have a fresh example that these things really do happen, not just in a book about history.

Fact is that the idea of catastrophic consequences being a real thing is mostly limited to people who have been through that. And they are nearly died out, it isn't a 'this could definitely happen I better get out of here just in case' to so many. 

It will be now for the next 20 or 30 years at least. 

Edited October 2 by strato

[Panthers Fan 69]

25 minutes ago, strato said:

The days of not having much advance warning are over. They were still tracking hurricanes via reports from ships at sea in 1940 and certainly were in 1916.

If you go back and read the warnings and predictions there were clues that it was not going to be good. 

I guess one thing that will come out of it is that people WILL pay attention to the forecasts and now have a fresh example that these things really do happen, not just in a book about history.

Fact is that the idea of catastrophic consequences being a real thing is mostly limited to people who have been through that. And they are nearly died out, it isn't a 'this could definitely happen I better get out of here just in case' to so many. 

It will be now for the next 20 or 30 years at least. 

Again, if this was projected to be this bad, people would have been evacuated.  The thing that hurt the most was the week before that got 7-11inches of rain. This one just blew it over.  
 

also, @LinvilleGorge  check this out, not only does this data suggest this storm was bigger than 1940, but even 1916. This was labeled a 1000 year storm in some spots.  
 

 

[Panthers Fan 69]

However guys, I’m done debating if people should have known or not.  Up to almost 100 bodies found today. We must pray and send local relief or help in anyway possible. These are my family and friends back home and this other stuff is trivial.  fug the politicians, we must be NC helping NC. 
 

 

[strato]

I am gonna.make a big argument blaming victims, there is no winning there for anybody and I feel for them.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/noaa-issues-rare-alert-on-hurricane-helenes-widespread-catastrophic-flooding-rains/ar-AA1rdgg8

[csx]

1 hour ago, Panthers Fan 69 said:

No one knew. You didn’t. I didn’t.  Weather people didn’t the locals didn’t. It was a 100 year flood. Those don’t happen every weekend. Trust me if people would have known they wouldn’t have found 50 bodies in the last five hours in Avery county and 200 plus so far. 

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/communities-need-to-prepare-for-catastrophic-life-threatening-inland-flooding-from-helene-even-well

https://raysweather.com/insights/fujiwhara?fbclid=IwY2xjawFqhxBleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHQzdgIT6cIt4lyT99JdAYkzrhr_TQBAQV-EHE20ClY7A5MBZmVCHyFmWrg_aem_Zp6LitNmUDO5m7Ljn7PNHg

https://raysweather.com/insights/37850978?fbclid=IwY2xjawFqhu1leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHZVMMDvgdcZ7iZUEqRn_grEllrREd6xRiwj9dogouZZD8RIvESKyTA_JJw_aem_oWqp8HFpxoNBebEjR4y0Wg

People knew and warnings of catastrophic flooding started on Wednesday the 25th. NOAA specifically mentiond Asheville. They urged news agencies with red text to focus on warning the public . 

When I mentioned it here on the first page I had been seeing things for a day and chatting with other weather nerds for a day. Even then there were people downplaying it here.  The sources I heard it from don't say things like catastrophic for fun. 

I am not blaming people but it wasnt a surprise. It's next to impossible to uproot and go for most everyone. 

Edited October 2 by csx

[csx]

[LinvilleGorge]

31 minutes ago, Panthers Fan 69 said:

Again, if this was projected to be this bad, people would have been evacuated.  The thing that hurt the most was the week before that got 7-11inches of rain. This one just blew it over.  
 

also, @LinvilleGorge  check this out, not only does this data suggest this storm was bigger than 1940, but even 1916. This was labeled a 1000 year storm in some spots.  
 

 

It probably was on some areas.

[LinvilleGorge]

15 minutes ago, csx said:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/communities-need-to-prepare-for-catastrophic-life-threatening-inland-flooding-from-helene-even-well

https://raysweather.com/insights/fujiwhara?fbclid=IwY2xjawFqhxBleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHQzdgIT6cIt4lyT99JdAYkzrhr_TQBAQV-EHE20ClY7A5MBZmVCHyFmWrg_aem_Zp6LitNmUDO5m7Ljn7PNHg

https://raysweather.com/insights/37850978?fbclid=IwY2xjawFqhu1leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHZVMMDvgdcZ7iZUEqRn_grEllrREd6xRiwj9dogouZZD8RIvESKyTA_JJw_aem_oWqp8HFpxoNBebEjR4y0Wg

People knew and warnings of catastrophic flooding started on Wednesday the 25th. NOAA specifically mentiond Asheville. They urged news agencies with red text to focus on warning the public . 

When I mentioned it here on the first page I had been seeing things for a day and chatting with other weather nerds for a day. Even then there were people downplaying it here.  The sources I heard it from don't say things like catastrophic for fun. 

I am not blaming people but it wasnt a surprise. It's next to impossible to uproot and go for most everyone. 

That's all well and good but a lot of deaths are gonna be from houses getting crushed by falling trees not flooding. And honestly, it's hard to blame people for getting caught in a flood in areas they've never seen flood before. The media over hypes so much stuff these days it's hard to take a lot of the warnings seriously. Boy who cried wolf syndrome.

[strato]

9 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

That's all well and good but a lot of deaths are gonna be from houses getting crushed by falling trees not flooding. And honestly, it's hard to blame people for getting caught in a flood in areas they've never seen flood before. The media over hypes so much stuff these days it's hard to take a lot of the warnings seriously. Boy who cried wolf syndrome.

Yeah I also addressed that.  The times we are in require more effort to find the facts of things. 
The weather info posted online is far superior to listening to the Weather Channel. I hope more people will do it. 
You have to be proactive. There are means to do that for most people. 
And definitely when the last catastrophic flood event has faded from living memory you are going have people that aren’t fully aware of what those warnings really mean. 

It is unfortunate to say the least. I’m sure most people lived and learned sheerly through being lucky but there are some bad  outcomes that the only positives to be found is they are cautionary tales that will help others take action in the future. 
 

Edited October 2 by strato

[strato]

36 minutes ago, strato said:

I am gonna.make a big argument blaming victims, there is no winning there for anybody and I feel for them.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/noaa-issues-rare-alert-on-hurricane-helenes-widespread-catastrophic-flooding-rains/ar-AA1rdgg8

That was supposed to read “not make a big argument” sorry.