"It's a philosophy": How Bryce Young has adapted 2.7 seconds to his game

[strato]

Y'all missing my point so this will turn into something I guess. 

The stats from 30 yards, 40 yards (I am assuming and not looking it up), I am reasoning that the hookup rate for 30 yard routes is less that with 20 yard routes. 

Following that viewpoint is the same assumption for 40 yards.. I'm just guessing that a graph would show a decline in success with the increase in distance. 

Lumping those in with 20 yards throws would affect the shorter distance numbers negatively. Making the argument against the importance of field stretching with the forward pass, easier to make. 

Just a comment/observation. I don't know the extent but I'd bet all day long the 30-39, the 40-49, and everything over that too, would pull down those 20-29 numbers. 

And I am not trying to say it's all a conspiracy (to make Young look better). I am saying that the lumping all those things together as deep, is not ideal for certain purposes. It's great for making FF scoring easier, not so great for closer looks. 

Edited September 4, 2024 by strato

[strato]

8 minutes ago, PanthersGTI said:

There was an interview with Tillis posted here a while ago and he broke down how NFL defenses are all built to stop the deep pass now anyways and offenses have to be built to take what they can get, which usually means 5-10 yard passes. It's almost as if these guys are professionals and know what they are talking about. 

We know they are pros. Designing an offense that will either help the QB be better at the field stretching, or hides his weaknesses, both really, is professional also.

I would just say: you did look at how defenses played Bryce Young last year, did you not? Would you really prefer to not threaten them enough to back them off some? Because that is what you will get with no threat of it.

[rayzor]

Just now, PanthersGTI said:

There was an interview with Tillis posted here a while ago and he broke down how NFL defenses are all built to stop the deep pass now anyways and offenses have to be built to take what they can get, which usually means 5-10 yard passes. It's almost as if these guys are professionals and know what they are talking about. 

we got addicted to the big deep pass. game is always in flux because both offenses and defenses are constantly adapting to what each other does. 

 

1 minute ago, Jackie Lee said:

Also Canales- Baker Mayfield led the league with 73 deep passes (deep = target was 20 or more yards from the LoS).

https://www.milehighreport.com/2024/3/8/24092154/2023-regular-season-passing-by-direction-and-distance#:~:text=Baker Mayfield led the league,four of 35 deep attempts.

i wonder what he did with Geno. maybe the deep ball worked worked to Baker's strengths and the offense adapted to it.

[scpanther22]

2 hours ago, PootieNunu said:

Nobody is asking for 30 yard bombs on a regular basis, but it has to at least be an option or the Defenses are just going to load the box again like they did last season and dare Bryce to complete anything. 

IF he still cant complete any deep shots look for 10 in the box and Canales running mentality is going to be shot to hell. 

I think Canales is looking for an offense based on quick-precision passing, it can work and has worked but people are going to complain 

[frankw]

This beaten down conversation is now basically just different sides finding specific data that they think confirms their theory.

For me this season it's all about the eye test. When I see a QB capable of commanding the offense and taking over a game while consistently establishing a deep ball connection I'll know we have something and I'll be ecstatic. If none of those things happen. Onto the next one.

[strato]

1 minute ago, frankw said:

This beaten down conversation is now basically just different sides finding specific data that they think confirms their theory.

For me this season it's all about the eye test. When I see a QB capable of commanding the offense and taking over a game while consistently establishing a deep ball connection I'll know we have something and I'll be ecstatic. If none of those things happen. Onto the next one.

For sure. There are things I want see, and things I hope to never see again. 

[Jackie Lee]

18 minutes ago, rayzor said:

 

 

i wonder what he did with Geno. maybe the deep ball worked worked to Baker's strengths and the offense adapted to it.

It's hard to find a consistent/thorough chart to directly compare all the stats but this little blurb is interesting. The 13 td's off of deep shots seems very Seattle, Geno had 30 total passing td's in 2022 I believe. 

NFL.com’s Adam Shook used both traditional and advanced metrics (and really the advanced metrics do the heavy lifting) to rank the NFL’s top-10 deep passers from last season. Jalen Hurts was 3rd, Tua Tagovailoa was 2nd, but coming in at the very top was the league’s Comeback Player of the Year.

Deep attempts: 24-of-51, 719 yards, 13:2 TD-INT ratio, 116.6 passer rating

Deep comp: 47.1%

Deep xComp: 33.8%

Deep CPOE: +13.2%

PASSING SCORE (on deep attempts): 99

Smith certainly didn’t earn 2022 Comeback Player of the Year honors by playing it safe. The veteran let it rip plenty, completing nearly 50 percent of his downfield passes for over 700 yards, a good chunk of his 4,282 yards for the season.

[Ghostofdelhomme]

 

7 minutes ago, scpanther22 said:

I think Canales is looking for an offense based on quick-precision passing, it can work and has worked but people are going to complain 

This was tried last year? The fact of the matter is 30 nfl defenses have more talent than the Panthers offense. Unless Canales can scheme broken coverages there’s not much you can do

[Ghostofdelhomme]

3 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

It's hard to find a consistent/thorough chart to directly compare all the stats but this little blurb is interesting. The 13 td's off of deep shots seems very Seattle, Geno had 30 total passing td's in 2022 I believe. 

NFL.com’s Adam Shook used both traditional and advanced metrics (and really the advanced metrics do the heavy lifting) to rank the NFL’s top-10 deep passers from last season. Jalen Hurts was 3rd, Tua Tagovailoa was 2nd, but coming in at the very top was the league’s Comeback Player of the Year.

Deep attempts: 24-of-51, 719 yards, 13:2 TD-INT ratio, 116.6 passer rating

Deep comp: 47.1%

Deep xComp: 33.8%

Deep CPOE: +13.2%

PASSING SCORE (on deep attempts): 99

Smith certainly didn’t earn 2022 Comeback Player of the Year honors by playing it safe. The veteran let it rip plenty, completing nearly 50 percent of his downfield passes for over 700 yards, a good chunk of his 4,282 yards for the season.

These “comeback” quarterbacks just happened to have DK and Mike Evans catching these bombs. Look what Flacco did with Cooper. A top 10 receiver does wonders

[Ghostofdelhomme]

Canales did what merely what was expected with stacked WR rosters as “whisperer”. If he does it here, it will be a miracle and coach of the year accolades 

[Waldo]

Geno and Baker are physically talented QBs that have brain issues and not physical limitations. Not doing what Carolina did when they brought in Teddy, Sam and Baker was the key for their successes. Don't ask them to be what they aren't and don't lean on them too hard. Keep the offense in a boring place and it will do fine. 

Young will require the opposite. They need to find an NFL scheme that works with his limitations. People seem to think the Alabama playbook is the answer but that just sounds like BS to me. Work better than last year's 'our HC packed it in and is just collecting checks' playbook? Sure. Be effective with film after a couple of weeks? I don't think so unless we are playing another bottom dweller. I guess we will all see soon.

Bryce had above average time to throw last year (just under 3) with that line play and play design qualities so this entire 2.7 seconds thing isn't ground breaking. His average last year was 2.89 (in December and I didn't want to keep looking) or close at the end of the year? This isn't Ah-Ha material any way you look at it. 

 

[Icege]

1 hour ago, strato said:

We know they are pros. Designing an offense that will either help the QB be better at the field stretching, or hides his weaknesses, both really, is professional also.

I would just say: you did look at how defenses played Bryce Young last year, did you not? Would you really prefer to not threaten them enough to back them off some? Because that is what you will get with no threat of it.

Why would a defense sit dudes back deep when they're absolutely murdering the OL on every snap and the WRs aren't separating?

Edited September 4, 2024 by Icege

[strato]

8 minutes ago, Icege said:

Why would a defense sit dudes back deep when they're absolutely murdering the OL on every snap and the WRs aren't separating?

More of that generalization about the OL. We know how they fuged the stunts up regularly And how Icky was being overwhelmed. 

This is so much Chicken or the Egg here. 

You could say the OL was given a much more difficult task to protect due to how congested they (defenses) were allowed to make the near field.  

And I know there were no guys he didn't see that were open, or guys that were open but not after he held the ball too long (meaning he had time to hold it I guess).

No problem. Argue that he can throw it deep with accuracy if he has time. I hope he can. We'll see. 

 

 

Edited September 4, 2024 by strato

[frankw]

4 minutes ago, Icege said:

Why would a defense sit dudes back deep when they're absolutely murdering the OL on every snap and the WRs aren't separating?

If the opposing defense has very little to no fear of the opposing QB threatening them deep that only makes it significantly more easy for the dline to beat up on the oline. There was one specific play last season where Mingo had gotten behind the entire defense deep only for the QB to miss him. You think things like that make it easier for the offensive line?

Basically what we were seeing last season in regards to how defenses were playing us is like how it was with Cam when his arm was done. Except we didn't even have the threat of his legs either. What do you get from that? The 32nd ranked passing offense.