Last Decade of First Round Draft Picks

[kungfoodude]

This was spawned by looking up how Shaq Thompson stacked up in the 2015 draft.

Using PFR's weighted Approximate Value.

2023: Bryce Young, Drafted #1, Ranked #21

2022: Ikem Ekwonu, Drafted #6, Ranked #27

2021: Jaycee Horn, Drafted #8, Ranked #89

2020: Derrick Brown, Drafted #7, Ranked #17

2019: Brian Burns, Drafted #16, Ranked #16

2018: DJ Moore, Drafted #24, Ranked #11

2017: Christian McCaffery, Drafted #8, Ranked #4

2016: Vernon Butler, Drafted #30, Ranked #103

2015: Shaq Thompson, Drafted #25, Ranked #33

2014: Kelvin Benjamin, Drafted #28, Ranked #78

[Panthero]

Not a bad hit rate. 

[mrcompletely11]

11 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

This was spawned by looking up how Shaq Thompson stacked up in the 2015 draft.

Using PFR's weighted Approximate Value.

2023: Bryce Young, Drafted #1, Ranked #21

2022: Ikem Ekwonu, Drafted #6, Ranked #27

2021: Jaycee Horn, Drafted #8, Ranked #89

2020: Derrick Brown, Drafted #7, Ranked #17

2019: Brian Burns, Drafted #16, Ranked #16

2018: DJ Moore, Drafted #24, Ranked #11

2017: Christian McCaffery, Drafted #8, Ranked #4

2016: Vernon Butler, Drafted #30, Ranked #103

2015: Shaq Thompson, Drafted #25, Ranked #33

2014: Kelvin Benjamin, Drafted #28, Ranked #78

I dont understand what the ranked # means. 

[Xtreme]

Dang, I forgot all about Butler. 

[Adb6368]

Kelvin Benjamin is a case study of what laziness can do to someone. Cost himself millions on millions of dollars because he couldn’t maintain focus 

Edited September 2 by Adb6368

[kungfoodude]

23 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I dont understand what the ranked # means. 

From OP:

Using PFR's weighted Approximate Value.

[kungfoodude]

25 minutes ago, Panthero said:

Not a bad hit rate. 

Trending down lately but that is also the most likely to change over time. For instance, a few more years and Shaq is likely to ascend much closer to #26 as a few guys ahead of him are out of the league.

[mrcompletely11]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

From OP:

Using PFR's weighted Approximate Value.

Bryce young is the 21rst best first rd pick in a decade?   Not following 

[kungfoodude]

Just now, mrcompletely11 said:

Bryce young is the 21rst best first rd pick in a decade?   Not following 

Yeah you are definitely not understanding.

These are ranked by individual draft class.

21st of the 2023 draft by wAV.

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah you are definitely not understanding.

These are ranked by individual draft class.

21st of the 2023 draft by wAV.

Gotcha.  Draft class not overall.  I'm an idiot 

[jayboogieman]

39 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

This was spawned by looking up how Shaq Thompson stacked up in the 2015 draft.

Using PFR's weighted Approximate Value.

2023: Bryce Young, Drafted #1, Ranked #21

2022: Ikem Ekwonu, Drafted #6, Ranked #27

2021: Jaycee Horn, Drafted #8, Ranked #89

2020: Derrick Brown, Drafted #7, Ranked #17

2019: Brian Burns, Drafted #16, Ranked #16

2018: DJ Moore, Drafted #24, Ranked #11

2017: Christian McCaffery, Drafted #8, Ranked #4

2016: Vernon Butler, Drafted #30, Ranked #103

2015: Shaq Thompson, Drafted #25, Ranked #33

2014: Kelvin Benjamin, Drafted #28, Ranked #78

In other words, the Panthers have greatly overdrafted guys in the first round including those that would be considered good players/hits.

[kungfoodude]

Just now, mrcompletely11 said:

Gotcha.  Draft class not overall.  I'm an idiot 

It would be basically impossible to do the other way around because wAV adds up over time. You essentially would be tilting the entire scale to longevity(which is somewhat true anyway).

But, it is supposed to be a measure of career rating so that is appropriate.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, jayboogieman said:

In other words, the Panthers have greatly overdrafted guys in the first round including those that would be considered good players/hits.

For this time period yes. The difference in the Tepper and non-Tepper eras of this sample seem very stark, IMO.

I will add the caveat that the more recent picks are subject to very wide ranges of outcomes based on length and success of careers.

[strato]

8 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah you are definitely not understanding.

These are ranked by individual draft class.

21st of the 2023 draft by wAV.

Better than I would have thought.