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Last Decade of First Round Draft Picks


kungfoodude
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This was spawned by looking up how Shaq Thompson stacked up in the 2015 draft.

Using PFR's weighted Approximate Value.

2023: Bryce Young, Drafted #1, Ranked #21

2022: Ikem Ekwonu, Drafted #6, Ranked #27

2021: Jaycee Horn, Drafted #8, Ranked #89

2020: Derrick Brown, Drafted #7, Ranked #17

2019: Brian Burns, Drafted #16, Ranked #16

2018: DJ Moore, Drafted #24, Ranked #11

2017: Christian McCaffery, Drafted #8, Ranked #4

2016: Vernon Butler, Drafted #30, Ranked #103

2015: Shaq Thompson, Drafted #25, Ranked #33

2014: Kelvin Benjamin, Drafted #28, Ranked #78

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11 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

This was spawned by looking up how Shaq Thompson stacked up in the 2015 draft.

Using PFR's weighted Approximate Value.

2023: Bryce Young, Drafted #1, Ranked #21

2022: Ikem Ekwonu, Drafted #6, Ranked #27

2021: Jaycee Horn, Drafted #8, Ranked #89

2020: Derrick Brown, Drafted #7, Ranked #17

2019: Brian Burns, Drafted #16, Ranked #16

2018: DJ Moore, Drafted #24, Ranked #11

2017: Christian McCaffery, Drafted #8, Ranked #4

2016: Vernon Butler, Drafted #30, Ranked #103

2015: Shaq Thompson, Drafted #25, Ranked #33

2014: Kelvin Benjamin, Drafted #28, Ranked #78

I dont understand what the ranked # means. 

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25 minutes ago, Panthero said:

Not a bad hit rate. 

Trending down lately but that is also the most likely to change over time. For instance, a few more years and Shaq is likely to ascend much closer to #26 as a few guys ahead of him are out of the league.

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39 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

This was spawned by looking up how Shaq Thompson stacked up in the 2015 draft.

Using PFR's weighted Approximate Value.

2023: Bryce Young, Drafted #1, Ranked #21

2022: Ikem Ekwonu, Drafted #6, Ranked #27

2021: Jaycee Horn, Drafted #8, Ranked #89

2020: Derrick Brown, Drafted #7, Ranked #17

2019: Brian Burns, Drafted #16, Ranked #16

2018: DJ Moore, Drafted #24, Ranked #11

2017: Christian McCaffery, Drafted #8, Ranked #4

2016: Vernon Butler, Drafted #30, Ranked #103

2015: Shaq Thompson, Drafted #25, Ranked #33

2014: Kelvin Benjamin, Drafted #28, Ranked #78

In other words, the Panthers have greatly overdrafted guys in the first round including those that would be considered good players/hits.

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Just now, mrcompletely11 said:

Gotcha.  Draft class not overall.  I'm an idiot 

It would be basically impossible to do the other way around because wAV adds up over time. You essentially would be tilting the entire scale to longevity(which is somewhat true anyway).

But, it is supposed to be a measure of career rating so that is appropriate.

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1 minute ago, jayboogieman said:

In other words, the Panthers have greatly overdrafted guys in the first round including those that would be considered good players/hits.

For this time period yes. The difference in the Tepper and non-Tepper eras of this sample seem very stark, IMO.

I will add the caveat that the more recent picks are subject to very wide ranges of outcomes based on length and success of careers.

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