Jaycee Horn’s future with the Panthers

[PantherChris]

2 hours ago, MHS831 said:

We often make our personnel decisions from the heart based on appearances and "common sense."  However, I have learned that what you think you know through observation is not always reliable knowledge.  By converting performance-based measurement to statistics and then to visual graphs, you can better understand the big picture, probability and likely outcomes.  This is what we do in Education research every day.

CMC and RBs peak early, so even though the Niners are getting a ton out of CMC, his age is now becoming significant.  I will use fantasy stats / article to demonstrate the point--why trading him and that contract may have been the best decision for the Panthers in the long term--time will tell.  CMC is 28--the year before most RBs significantly drop off.  Just a different perspective, but this is why I have always said, "never give a RB a second contract."  Yes, there are exceptions, but if you base decisions on exceptions or isolated comparisons, you are being stupid--in the research world.

https://apexfantasyleagues.com/peak-age-nfl-running-back/#:~:text=The oldest players to accomplish the feat were,place at age 29 – a noticeable drop-off.

While this generally holds true it should be noted that the amount of touches also plays into this strongly..... and cmc basicly had 2 seasons off.

[NAS]

2 hours ago, Dave Gettleman's Shorts said:

CMC's injuries were often the result of poor management by the staff resulting in him being over worked. (20 HB dives per game, playing 99% of snaps)

I'm pretty sure SF uses him just as much, he had second most carries in his career last year (272), second only to the 2019 season with Carolina when he had 287.

[NAS]

2 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

My general thought is let him play out his entire deal and then see what happens. I get that we run the risk of him staying healthy, balling out and then we have to pay top money. But, I am okay paying a top player top money. I am not okay getting caught in a mid-level deal for multiple seasons for a guy that has so trade value and can't stay healthy.

I'm good with this

[Davidson Deac II]

A week ago, someone linked a twitter article that said we were going to trade him.  Now we are going to pay him top dollar according to a twitter account.  Next week, someone on twitter will say we are going to convert him to kicker.  

If he plays a full season, and plays well, we will likely pick up the fifth year.  If he gets injured and misses much of the season, we will likely move on from him.  

[Mother Grabber]

5 hours ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

Nothing in his history suggests he can play a full season.  That's the issue.

only about 50% of players make it through an entire season, though

[strato]

Couldn’t they do that accounting thing where you front load the heck out of it and if he can’t stay on the field you can get out after two years without killing your budget?

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, PantherChris said:

While this generally holds true it should be noted that the amount of touches also plays into this strongly..... and cmc basicly had 2 seasons off.

I had the same thought. And he is a pass catcher, which reduces his hits--they are unlikely to leave him in the backfield to block on pass plays--

[jayboogieman]

 

[AggieLean]

I’d be hesitant to trade him. Really don’t want to trade him. Let him play out these two years, and if he balls out and stays healthy, pay him top money. We’re likely about to reset the QB clock here soon, so the team will be able to maneuver around his contract, if it comes to that. 

[frankw]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

I had the same thought. And he is a pass catcher, which reduces his hits--they are unlikely to leave him in the backfield to block on pass plays--

Some people only look at this through Panthers colors lenses.

Break down the career touches.

First look at Stanford. He averaged roughly 39 touches a game in college.

https://www.stack.com/a/how-christian-mccaffrey-built-his-body-to-withstand-one-of-the-biggest-workloads-in-college-football/

In the NFL he is 5th in career touches with 1,806. 668 of those touches are from the last two seasons in San Francisco alone.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/active-nfl-running-back-most-career-touches

At 28 years old with a fresh new large contract and on a team eyeing at least one or two more championship runs with their core mostly intact his touches are not going down. If anything they could very well go up.

He's putting the history of the position to the test that's for sure.

[Turtle]

8 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

I'd be ok with tagging him and seeing how his health does next year. 

I think building culture is big for us rn - look at derek browns attitude after being made, Horn is guy to build around. Pay him and move on

[App Panther]

Shouldn't we getting a major discount considering he's played like 6 games a year or something dumb since being drafted?

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, frankw said:

Some people only look at this through Panthers colors lenses.

Break down the career touches.

First look at Stanford. He averaged roughly 39 touches a game in college.

https://www.stack.com/a/how-christian-mccaffrey-built-his-body-to-withstand-one-of-the-biggest-workloads-in-college-football/

In the NFL he is 5th in career touches with 1,806. 668 of those touches are from the last two seasons in San Francisco alone.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/active-nfl-running-back-most-career-touches

At 28 years old with a fresh new large contract and on a team eyeing at least one or two more championship runs with their core mostly intact his touches are not going down. If anything they could very well go up.

He's putting the history of the position to the test that's for sure.

Good stuff Frank

[PNW_PantherMan]

2 hours ago, frankw said:

Some people only look at this through Panthers colors lenses.

Break down the career touches.

First look at Stanford. He averaged roughly 39 touches a game in college.

https://www.stack.com/a/how-christian-mccaffrey-built-his-body-to-withstand-one-of-the-biggest-workloads-in-college-football/

In the NFL he is 5th in career touches with 1,806. 668 of those touches are from the last two seasons in San Francisco alone.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/active-nfl-running-back-most-career-touches

At 28 years old with a fresh new large contract and on a team eyeing at least one or two more championship runs with their core mostly intact his touches are not going down. If anything they could very well go up.

He's putting the history of the position to the test that's for sure.

We should have arguably gotten more for him, but by the time we're good again he'll be washed.  Best case he'll be a 3rd down back specialist sorta guy by then.