Jaycee Horn’s future with the Panthers

[MHS831]

3 minutes ago, Donald LaFell said:

Yeah I think that’d be a good move. Get a 1st rounder back while we recover from the likely disaster of the Bryce Young trade. 

In my view--and I know there are other views just as sound or more--you don't lock down oft-injured players until you get the QB situation secure.  All moves need to be made with that in mind--if we get an additional 2025 first rounder (he is worth it now because he is cheap--next year, his trade value drops, like Burns)  then we can bring is a top CB or move up to get the best QB in the draft.  If we pay Horn a ton and he gets injured again, this draft at QB is probably not going to be more than 2 players in the first round.  We'd be screwed.  I am like everyone else--tired of trading talent, but until you get a QB, you are not going to win.  A top CB simply gets avoided.  You can't avoid a top QB.

[MHS831]

We often make our personnel decisions from the heart based on appearances and "common sense."  However, I have learned that what you think you know through observation is not always reliable knowledge.  By converting performance-based measurement to statistics and then to visual graphs, you can better understand the big picture, probability and likely outcomes.  This is what we do in Education research every day.

CMC and RBs peak early, so even though the Niners are getting a ton out of CMC, his age is now becoming significant.  I will use fantasy stats / article to demonstrate the point--why trading him and that contract may have been the best decision for the Panthers in the long term--time will tell.  CMC is 28--the year before most RBs significantly drop off.  Just a different perspective, but this is why I have always said, "never give a RB a second contract."  Yes, there are exceptions, but if you base decisions on exceptions or isolated comparisons, you are being stupid--in the research world.

https://apexfantasyleagues.com/peak-age-nfl-running-back/#:~:text=The oldest players to accomplish the feat were,place at age 29 – a noticeable drop-off.

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, NAS said:

almost everyone wanted CMC gone due to injuries and now that he is playing like a hall of famer they’re pissed. Horn will be special his injury days are behind him

1. Not everyone is pissed he is gone. I am pretty happy to not have almost $20 mil/year tied to a RB.

2. Horn is only going to lose that injury prone label by staying healthy. How good would Jeff Otah have been had his career not been derailed by injuries? To an extent same with Kelvin Benjamin. We have no idea which Horn is going to be. 

 

My general thought is let him play out his entire deal and then see what happens. I get that we run the risk of him staying healthy, balling out and then we have to pay top money. But, I am okay paying a top player top money. I am not okay getting caught in a mid-level deal for multiple seasons for a guy that has so trade value and can't stay healthy.

Let Jaycee prove he can stay healthy and then pay the many if he can. I don't see any other realistic choice outside of some team handing over a pile of picks and then you just can say no(CMC or Burns scenario, of which we flubbed 50% of).

[Dave Gettleman's Shorts]

1 hour ago, NAS said:

almost everyone wanted CMC gone due to injuries and now that he is playing like a hall of famer they’re pissed. Horn will be special his injury days are behind him

CMC's injuries were often the result of poor management by the staff resulting in him being over worked. (20 HB dives per game, playing 99% of snaps)

Horn literally snaps a bone or tears a tendon just from just jogging

[frankw]

If things go well this season and he is active for the bulk of the games you move for the 5th year option and then work on an extension. But he has to play. It's a similar situation as the Hornets have dealt with. You pay a guy top dollar he has to be available. I hope to see Jaycee balling out this season and here doing so for the next several years. We will know soon enough.

[PNW_PantherMan]

Damn @MHS831 you are on fire.  I 100% agree with your takes.

[Panthers Rhule]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Tepper Turf has something to do with it--i think Horn's injuries were at home in Charlotte--so I am concerned that this surface may not be conducive to his style of play.   Some tennis players (I can't remember who) said they never won certain tournaments because the surface was not conducive to their style of play--some complained of injuries--like groins on clay, ankles on grass--etc.  Just curious.

I also remember that we lost him the 2nd year because he got hit by his team mate and broke his wrist I think it was. His injuries have been fluke injuries. I don't think he's fragile he just had bad luck starting his career and I expect him to become an elite corner for many years to come. The man is good at his job. 

[*FreeFua*]

His 5th year option has already been picked up. The deadline for 5th year options was a while ago

I’m sure he’ll want to put out two solid years worth of tape before heading into FA. If he only has the one next season then you should be extremely hesitant paying him

When healthy Jaycee is as good as any corner in the league. 

[Panthers Rhule]

I found this list. It's actually shorter than I thought.

Jaycee Horn's injury history since joining the Carolina Panthers

Pedal Foot Fracture - 2021 - TEPPER TURF, FLUKE

Things started so well for Jaycee Horn as a rookie. This came to an abrupt halt in Week 3 of the 2021 season when the player fractured three bones in his foot on Thursday Night Football.

Horn was placed on season-ending injured reserve, ending his campaign almost before it began. It was a long road back to recovery and the Panthers' secondary wasn't the same after his enforced absence from the gridiron.

Chest Rib Sprain/Pull - 2022 - NORMAL SMALL FOOTBALL INJURY

Horn made his triumphant return to the lineup for the 2022 season. This didn't last long after the player suffered a chest rib sprain during their Week 5 game against the San Francisco 49ers. The game has special significance - it was the final contest with Matt Rhule as head coach before he was fired.

The Georgia native missed two weeks with the complication, returning for their Week 8 encounter versus the Atlanta Falcons.

Broken Wrist - 2022 - HIT BY TEAM MATE, FLUKE

The Panthers enjoyed a mini-renaissance without Rhule making things difficult. Steve Wilks completely galvanized an organization on its knees. They even had a shot at winning the NFC South thanks in no small part to the lack of quality within the division.

Horn missed Carolina's crunch game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17 with a broken wrist. This was a catastrophe at the worst possible time. Tom Brady took full advantage of his absence, torching the secondary to clinch the division crown with minimal fuss.

With nothing to play for other than pride, Horn was also held out of their regular-season finale.

Thigh Hamstring Strain - 2023 - THIS IS THE ONLY BODY NOT WORKING RIGHT INJURY HE'S HAD

Optimism was high surrounding Horn heading into the 2023 campaign. But once again, this was short-lived after a serious hamstring tear in Week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons.

This resulted in another surgery and a trip to the injured reserve list. Horn returned in Week 13, playing five of the final six games. But the damage had already been done as Carolina's season descended into embarrassment.

Wrist Injury - 2023 - NORMAL SMALL FOOTBALL INJURY

If that wasn't enough, Horn also missed one game towards the end of the 2023 campaign with a wrist issue. Unlike the others, this was nothing more than a short-term issue.

 

That's it. Take away the 2 flukes and he's been quite normal. I believe he's done with the fluke injuries. How many can one player have?

[thunderraiden]

 

[Jon Snow]

If they have no intent to sign him to a large contract then take the best offer while they still have the leverage. 

[CPF4LIFE]

I mean this is not surprising. Dude is a top 5 player when he on the field and also shows it in practice. 

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

Damn @MHS831 you are on fire.  I 100% agree with your takes.

definitely cause for concern.

[bandu]

 in a trade like this you are betting on either the player you already have or the front office with the draft pick, right ? so if you take the draft pick who are you betting on?

 ...just saying 

Edited August 23, 2024 by bandu