A Joe Person production: Panthers 53-man roster projection August 12th new edition primetime let's go

[PNW_PantherMan]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

The problem with setting your strategy on statistical outliers is that you are gambling on a hit of a very low percentage. That's like investing in scratch off lottery tickets.

Actually, now that I think about it, that's kind of been our front office strategy for several years now.

There's a difference in using a pick in rounds 5-7.  Everyone there is a statistical outlier.  We haven't gotten a solid contributor since AJ Klein in 2013.  The opportunity cost here is minuscule.

[Camp Fodder]

16 hours ago, Jaxel said:

Need to pick up a developmental QB that gets cut. Hopefully one of the rookies around the league gets axxed because of numbers. Looking at you Milton/Rattler.

Or Zappe if NE keeps Milton but then again Zappe is better than Young

[jb2288]

Yeah I don't see any reason to bring in someone to challenge Bryce. This is year 2, if he isn't it we should know by Thanksgiving and most likely will be picking top 5 again and will get our next guy and Bryce will be gone. 

[Jon Snow]

Bryce has a bigger challenge ahead of him. He's auditioning for his future nfl career. If that's not motivation enough for him to do his best I seriously doubt some project qb will do it. The kid is facing the biggest challenge to his future in the nfl. He's just lucky he's getting a mulligan for last season. 

[PNW_PantherMan]

Its not about motivating Bryce.  Its about taking another shot on a QB in parallel.  If he gets motivated by that and plays better, that's great.  But we're trying to figure out the long term future of the position here.  I don't think anyone would debate that about this season.

Edited August 13, 2024 by PNW_PantherMan

[strato]

I think that is next year and whether or not they really try to challenge him with the selection will depend on his play this season. 

 

 

[thennek]

I have a feeling that if Bryce does not start showing 'growth', we will see Dalton in the middle part/end part of the season.  This team needs to start learning to win, and the Panthers need to be able to effectively evaluate other positions for the 2025 season.  If the Panthers start 0-4, it is going to get ugly but let's hope this does not happen.  

[Waldo]

3 hours ago, Newtcase said:

I think you are spot on.  I don't even know where this QB whisperer garbage came from.  Baker statistically was on par with his early Cleveland production last year and only threw for 147 yards in 9-0 win against us with the division and playoffs on the line.  Not making a statement on Canales other than I don't think his resume is head coach quality.  Doesn't mean he won't be, to me it just means it's yet another gamble.

I was at that game and it stunk. He did well with 2 QBs that fit the system, someone else's, that he runs. There are some things I like about him but it just seems like a patch job done by the people in the Tepper's ears that stayed from last year's massive failures. 

[frankw]

2 hours ago, jb2288 said:

Yeah I don't see any reason to bring in someone to challenge Bryce. This is year 2, if he isn't it we should know by Thanksgiving and most likely will be picking top 5 again and will get our next guy and Bryce will be gone. 

It isn't just about challenging him. The starter job was always going to be his this season. It's about having someone anyone that can actually be developed at low cost that isn't a total trash can or a washed up vet that serves no purpose. It's also about what's best for the team. We have other young players on the roster that need to be developed. There are 17 games to be played and that experience is valuable. But only if we have backup QB's capable of providing anything of substance. Having the worst QB room in the league is not that. Ideally the Panthers should have drafted a late round QB this year to go along with another QB next year. The Panthers need real leadership on the roster on the offensive side of the ball badly. If you aren't getting that from your QB in some capacity you do not have a QB. Until that exists it's the cellar for us.

[Ricky Prickles]

21 hours ago, Jaxel said:

Need to pick up a developmental QB that gets cut. Hopefully one of the rookies around the league gets axxed because of numbers. Looking at you Milton/Rattler.

Rattler won't be getting cut but Milton I wonder if he could be a possibility? If so I would take him without question as developmental or to get some reps in case Bryce busts badly this season.

[kungfoodude]

6 hours ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

There's a difference in using a pick in rounds 5-7.  Everyone there is a statistical outlier.  We haven't gotten a solid contributor since AJ Klein in 2013.  The opportunity cost here is minuscule.

Sure, however we use that same strategy in rounds 1-7. That's the issue.

[WhoKnows]

On 8/12/2024 at 10:36 PM, TheSpecialJuan said:

QB - Bryce, Andy Dalton 

RB - Chubba, Miles Sanders, Blackshear 

TE - Tremble, Ian Thomas, Sanders, Matthews

WR - Thielen, Johnson, Mingo, Legette, David Moore, Smith-Marsette 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5694698/2024/08/12/carolina-panthers-53-man-roster-projection-preseason/

Wow, when you really take a deep look at our offensive skill positions, you realize how bad our talent level is compared to the rest of the NFL. 

[kungfoodude]

16 hours ago, frankw said:

It isn't just about challenging him. The starter job was always going to be his this season. It's about having someone anyone that can actually be developed at low cost that isn't a total trash can or a washed up vet that serves no purpose. It's also about what's best for the team. We have other young players on the roster that need to be developed. There are 17 games to be played and that experience is valuable. But only if we have backup QB's capable of providing anything of substance. Having the worst QB room in the league is not that. Ideally the Panthers should have drafted a late round QB this year to go along with another QB next year. The Panthers need real leadership on the roster on the offensive side of the ball badly. If you aren't getting that from your QB in some capacity you do not have a QB. Until that exists it's the cellar for us.

TBQH, I don't think we are capable of developing a late round QB prospect, even given their limited ceilings.

I would also say that's fairly rare in the last 30+ years of the NFL for basically any NFL franchise. The percentage of guys taken in the 5th round or later that even become 2nd string QB's is likely very small.

[strato]

12 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

TBQH, I don't think we are capable of developing a late round QB prospect, even given their limited ceilings.

I would also say that's fairly rare in the last 30+ years of the NFL for basically any NFL franchise. The percentage of guys taken in the 5th round or later that even become 2nd string QB's is likely very small.

Won’t argue that much, but no one down there has a recognized high floor. So you really have to look at that compared to just the one position. And see the difference. I haven’t done that work, but my guess is that more position players pan out into something usable than do QBs* but then you have to also figure in positional value. Wouldn’t you? (higher for QBs)

 

edit: * which is something like taking the field vs one player in a bet. The real analysis would have to go by position and how often drafting that position was a success, right?

And there may be a position that has the higher success rate in those late late rounds. I would probably guess kickers and cornerbacks, maybe a tackle you can make into a guard... something like that. But it could be QBs too. 

Edited August 14, 2024 by strato