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So am I the only one

methodtoll

By methodtoll,
in Carolina Panthers

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nagai Newbie

nagai

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I agree with you methodtoll, but not with point 2. You gotta remember that hitting gold on a pick isn't a sure thing, in fact it's more like a 50-50 (if you simplify it and look at all the successful picks vs the busts). Therefore, if you like a guy, just take him. Don't get too cute and think that there'll be better value later. You may not even have a guy that you like in the later rounds, team scouts don't just steal info from Mel Kiper. Half those guys are probably off their big boards completely.

Even if there is a guy you like, what's to say he'll still be there later? As the draft continues, you'll see a lot of 'reaches' just because so many guys there will be projects to begin with, no one really gives a crap. So yeah, just take the guy you like right now and take it one pick at a time.

OK, now that my rant is over, let's get back to the original question. No I would not even be remotely surprised if we didn't pick up a WR with our first pick (unless someone like Tate falls to us). Our main need positions are DT, LB, WR and DE. Just BPA out of the 4 positions and I'll be a happy camper. Heck, if they make a pure BPA pick, I'll be fine with that too. Just don't pick up a 2nd string safety or something.

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jramsey4 Newbie

jramsey4

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Two things that have me leaning towards waiting until the 3rd round to draft a WR. Rick Gosselin (probably the most accurate mockster out there) was asked what position has the best bet of getting steals based on talent. He said WR in the 3rd and 4th rounds will be loaded with great players to choose from.

Also GBN, one the more respected draft sites, just revised their big board and have Mardy Gilyard ranked in the low 90's now. Would love to use our 3rd on him just not our 2nd.

I have been saying that all offseason, you should be stock piling 3rds and 4ths in this draft (thats why in CCv2 mock draft I have 3 3rds and 2 4ths).

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methodtoll Proficient

methodtoll

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I agree with you methodtoll, but not with point 2. You gotta remember that hitting gold on a pick isn't a sure thing, in fact it's more like a 50-50 (if you simplify it and look at all the successful picks vs the busts). Therefore, if you like a guy, just take him. Don't get too cute and think that there'll be better value later. You may not even have a guy that you like in the later rounds, team scouts don't just steal info from Mel Kiper. Half those guys are probably off their big boards completely.

Even if there is a guy you like, what's to say he'll still be there later? As the draft continues, you'll see a lot of 'reaches' just because so many guys there will be projects to begin with, no one really gives a crap. So yeah, just take the guy you like right now and take it one pick at a time.

OK, now that my rant is over, let's get back to the original question. No I would not even be remotely surprised if we didn't pick up a WR with our first pick (unless someone like Tate falls to us). Our main need positions are DT, LB, WR and DE. Just BPA out of the 4 positions and I'll be a happy camper. Heck, if they make a pure BPA pick, I'll be fine with that too. Just don't pick up a 2nd string safety or something.

Whose to say that a 2nd round receiver will be any better then a guy coming out of the third...

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Lout Newbie

Lout

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Arrelious Benn and Damian Williams will both be there at #48. Not to mention Gilyard, but he is probably a 3rd rounder.. his stock has been falling like crazy since the combine. We will draft the 4th WR in the draft.

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scpanther22 Rising Star

scpanther22

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Arrelious Benn and Damian Williams will both be there at #48. Not to mention Gilyard, but he is probably a 3rd rounder.. his stock has been falling like crazy since the combine. We will draft the 4th WR in the draft.

IDK..Gilyard could go higher or lower than people think...IMO

But I dont see how Benn will get past the pats,Bucs,Chiefs,Dolphins to fall to us

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nagai Newbie

nagai

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Whose to say that a 2nd round receiver will be any better then a guy coming out of the third...

You can take that '3rd round WR' in the 2nd round if you're convinced that he's the best pick. Those projections are artificial.

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Lout Newbie

Lout

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IDK..Gilyard could go higher or lower than people think...IMO

But I dont see how Benn will get past the pats,Bucs,Chiefs,Dolphins to fall to us

The way my mock draft fell was, the Bucs got Demaryius Thomas in the top of the 2nd.. the chiefs took RB Ryan Mathews because with Chris Chambers as their #2 now.. WR is not as great as a need for them. Chambers was tearing it up towards the end of the year. And the Chiefs are not sold on Jamaal Charles as an every down back. (Cheifs are my 2nd favorite team) so I follow them closely. And lastly, the Dolphins i believe will be looking at a NT in the second round.. someone like Brian Price who will most likely be available. Jason Ferguson is like 35 years old, and Parcells values NT's.

Not to mention that WR's usually fall a little every year.. I truly believe both Benn, Williams, and Gilyard will all be available at #48. And this is coming from a pessimist.. I am hardly an optimistic person. But, I think Gilyard will fall into the 3rd round. He is small for a WR and not as fast as once thought.. that does not make for a high draft pick.

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Lout Newbie

Lout

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Whose to say that a 2nd round receiver will be any better then a guy coming out of the third...

You should look at the past 10 drafts.. the production drop off for WRs from the 2nd to 3rd round is insane. You have something like a 50% chance hit ratio for a WR in the 2nd round.. and like 10% for the 3rd round. It's rediculous. And by "hit" I mean starting caliber. Not slot WR.

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scpanther22 Rising Star

scpanther22

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The way my mock draft fell was, the Bucs got Demaryius Thomas in the top of the 2nd.. the chiefs took RB Ryan Mathews because with Chris Chambers as their #2 now.. WR is not as great as a need for them. Chambers was tearing it up towards the end of the year. And the Chiefs are not sold on Jamaal Charles as an every down back. (Cheifs are my 2nd favorite team) so I follow them closely. And lastly, the Dolphins i believe will be looking at a NT in the second round.. someone like Brian Price who will most likely be available. Jason Ferguson is like 35 years old, and Parcells values NT's.

Not to mention that WR's usually fall a little every year.. I truly believe both Benn, Williams, and Gilyard will all be available at #48. And this is coming from a pessimist.. I am hardly an optimistic person. But, I think Gilyard will fall into the 3rd round. He is small for a WR and not as fast as once thought.. that does not make for a high draft pick.

I could see NT for the phins in the 2nd..I dont think the chiefs go RB..They did sign T.Jones who could at least be a backup to J.Charles ...still the pats have two 2nd round picks before us and at least 1 will go on a WR

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Lout Newbie

Lout

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I could see NT for the phins in the 2nd..I dont think the chiefs go RB..They did sign T.Jones who could at least be a backup to J.Charles ...still the pats have two 2nd round picks before us and at least 1 will go on a WR

Good point about Thomas Jones.. probably makes the RB need not so high. I have the Pats taking an OLB with one of their 2nd rounders.. and a CB with the other. But, you may be right.. they could target a WR since Welker tore his acl and mcl.

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