Who impressed & who needs to get his ass cut (Preseason week 1)

[MasterAwesome]

26 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

Yeah worst case scenario they have too many qb's in New England. Imagine if they didn't want to hurt Drake Mayes feelings so they skipped on that opportunity. Not a single fan up there will give a fug if May is a bust and Milton is the real deal

Do we really put a meaningful difference between a mid-6th round draft pick vs. undrafted FA?  Tom Brady aside, how many 6th round QBs have panned out in the NFL?  Maybe some decent back-ups in there, but I doubt Maye feels threatened because the Patriots spent a 6th round pick on a QB lol.  That's basically what we did when we drafted Jimmy Clausen as our "guy" with our first pick and then Tony Pike (remember him?) in the 6th round in the same draft...I don't think anyone considered that as a bold praise-worthy move to push Clausen and maybe strike gold. 

Chances are that some of these late-round QBs are available after roster cuts, in which case we'll ultimately be in a position to grab one without investing a draft pick of our own.

[MechaZain]

5 hours ago, CPF4LIFE said:

A second year guy who did nothing last year and needs all the reps he can get in a new offense with new pieces around him. Most other legit starting qbs in the league are playing this week....just pre season tho. 

Sure but how many do you think are “fired up” about preseason games? Come on.

[strato]

You could kinda say the same thing about almost any player down there at the bottom. 

Who are you missing out on really, using these late rounds to secure a developmental QB? 

 

[Jackie Lee]

 

[MasterAwesome]

8 minutes ago, strato said:

You could kinda say the same thing about almost any player down there at the bottom. 

Who are you missing out on really, using these late rounds to secure a developmental QB? 

 

Is that to me?  I can't tell cause I guess you forgot to quote again lol.  I think when it comes to the later rounds, you're drafting for things like potential, depth, and niche positions like Special Teams.  You're essentially consulting your draft board as your blueprint.  If you're drafting a guy in the 6th who you think has a 10% chance of becoming a meaningful contributor within 3 years vs. a developmental QB who you think has a 2% chance just because "why the hell not" and maybe you'll get extremely lucky, then I think every team is taking the former aside from maybe incredibly stacked rosters who can afford the luxury of likely throwing away late round picks on the miniscule chance that they strike gold on a franchise QB.  Certainly not our team with holes everywhere.  Now if it's 50/50 and you have two equally rated players on your draft board and one is a QB and your QB room is awful, then yeah I'd agree that it's worth taking a shot on a developmental QB.

[strato]

35 minutes ago, MasterAwesome said:

Is that to me?  I can't tell cause I guess you forgot to quote again lol.  I think when it comes to the later rounds, you're drafting for things like potential, depth, and niche positions like Special Teams.  You're essentially consulting your draft board as your blueprint.  If you're drafting a guy in the 6th who you think has a 10% chance of becoming a meaningful contributor within 3 years vs. a developmental QB who you think has a 2% chance just because "why the hell not" and maybe you'll get extremely lucky, then I think every team is taking the former aside from maybe incredibly stacked rosters who can afford the luxury of likely throwing away late round picks on the miniscule chance that they strike gold on a franchise QB.  Certainly not our team with holes everywhere.  Now if it's 50/50 and you have two equally rated players on your draft board and one is a QB and your QB room is awful, then yeah I'd agree that it's worth taking a shot on a developmental QB.

i was actually thinking of UDFA vs 6th or 7th round. I thought that was part of the idea we were discussing. Like you can wait until after the draft for these guys. I was saying that it holds true for about all players down there so what is really the difference? Now, I did not research success rate of 6th round picks by position, but I guess you did. .

You might be citing established success rates or you might be guesstimating, I don’t know. I’m not challenging that in the first place, we can use it. 

 I would say though, that if my eyes tell me there is potential, and the kid shows to have a good head on his shoulders I am going to do what feels right in that circumstance regardless of the percentages. It isn’t a high level of investment. That is where you can gamble a little. 

Moving along...

You could take the view that you can more successfully predict success of other positions better than QB when you are at the top of the player rankings, I might look at focusing my 1st round on doing that. 

That was just off the top of my head so I looked for a better source. I stole the below from Jeremy Fowler on Twitter, it is compiled of the years 2000-20019.

 The percentages by positions are below (look at WR lol). And there is a link to a 2025 trade value chart also. 

There is a lot to this of course, but I thought I’d look at the trade value chart along with these percentages. I am not great with the math heavy statistical analysis, so I won’t try to quantify all this. But I did consider that 2% chance thing and compared that to the 46% for 1st rounders from this chart (QBs ftr)

(That’s 23 times more likely? Or just divisible 23 times? I don’t the rules for probabilities like some folks here will.)

The value of a mid 6th rounder is 15.4, for the 15th pick of the 6th round.

23 x 15.4 is 354.2 

The value of the 15th overall selection, is listed as 1050. 

Looks like you get 23 shots x 2 percentage wise. You essentially get 3 times that many shots from a trade chart value. 

What can we do with those numbers?

https://www.drafttek.com/nfl-trade-value-chart.asp

 

 

 

https://x.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1783133659249193449

 

Edited August 9 by strato

[bandu]

it's so simple Joe Milton like I said was the one rookie to watch ...just saying 

 

[bandu]

& did you see J. Milton's footwork ist's so much different than Bryce Youngs it's like night & day better

omg what I would give if Bryce Youngs footwork looked anything remotely in the same ballpark as Joe Miltons

...just saying

 

Edited August 9 by bandu

[Jmac]

Eku Leota is an asheville guy (Asheville HS). Love to see him on the roster.

[outlaw4]

I'll give the O-line an olive branch in that their run blocking was competent enough that some may be worth keeping as extra lineman for run heavy packages.

[MasterAwesome]

10 minutes ago, strato said:

i was actually thinking of UDFA vs 6th or 7th round. I thought that was part of the idea we were discussing. Like you can wait until after the draft for these guys. I was saying that it holds true for about all players down there so what is really the difference? Now, I did not research success rate of 6th round picks by position, but I guess you did. .

You might be citing established success rates or you might be guesstimating, I don’t know. I’m not challenging that in the first place, we can use it. 

 I would say though, that if my eyes tell me there is potential, and the kid shows to have a good head on his shoulders I am going to do what feels right in that circumstance regardless of the percentages. It isn’t a high level of investment. That is where you can gamble a little. 

Moving along...

You could take the view that you can more successfully predict success of other positions better than QB when you are at the top of the player rankings, I might look at focusing my 1st round on doing that. 

That was just off the top of my head so I looked for a better source. I stole the below from Jeremy Fowler on Twitter, it is compiled of the years 2000-20019.

 The percentages by positions are below (look at WR lol). And there is a link to a 2025 trade value chart also. 

There is a lot to this of course, but I thought I’d look at the trade value chart along with these percentages. I am not great with the math heavy statistical analysis, so I won’t try to quantify all this. But I did consider that 2% chance thing and compared that to the 46% for 1st rounders from this chart (QBs ftr)

(That’s 23 times more likely? Or just divisible 23 times? I don’t the rules for probabilities like some folks here will.)

The value of a mid 6th rounder is 15.4, for the 15th pick of the 6th round.

23 x 15.4 is 354.2 

The value of the 15th overall selection, is listed as 1050. 

Looks like you get 23 shots x 2 percentage wise. You essentially get 3 times that many shots from a trade chart value. 

What can we do with those numbers?

https://www.drafttek.com/nfl-trade-value-chart.asp

 

 

 

https://x.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1783133659249193449

 

Sorry, you misunderstand my 2% vs. 10% thing but I can see how I worded that confusingly.  I wasn't referencing some researched statistical analysis of hit rate.  I was basically just trying to quantify how much a team might like or value a certain prospect, but I probably should've just left out the random percentages and just stuck with the draft board.  If the Panthers are on the clock in the 6th round and there's a developmental QB who's 250 on their draft board vs. a linebacker who's 180 (i.e. a fairly sizeable difference), then I wouldn't want them to ignore their more coveted prospect just because maybe they'll get extremely lucky and strike gold on that QB when that has almost never happened historically.  If it was more like 250 vs. 245 then yeah sure let's just cross our fingers and take the QB because the opportunity cost is relatively minimal.  I'm just speaking theoretically here cause I obviously don't have access to the Panthers' draft board, but I think it's a safe assumption to say that they liked their late round selections significantly more than whatever bottom barrel QBs were available.

[bandu]

the Panthers ŵere absolutely & no other word for it but crazy not to draft a latter round Qb if for nothing than more than  to push Bryce Young in camp & make him earn the starting job

& the same thing can be said about the center position in the 2nd round when instead we decided to add an injured RB to a loaded RB rotation

trulty evaluating talent has nothing to with how much you study  how smart you might think you are how much money you have like Tepper or just because you used to play yourself.no scouting talent is a gift from the maker either you have an eye for it or you don't it's much like a musician yeah studying will help to some extent of course but that will never mean that musician will is or will become an audio savant just because he is smart & studies all the time

my point being we have the wrong people evaluating talent & as of right now we have very little talent to speak of because of it

[strato]

I 

16 minutes ago, MasterAwesome said:

Sorry, you misunderstand my 2% vs. 10% thing but I can see how I worded that confusingly.  I wasn't referencing some researched statistical analysis of hit rate.  I was basically just trying to quantify how much a team might like or value a certain prospect, but I probably should've just left out the random percentages and just stuck with the draft board.  If the Panthers are on the clock in the 6th round and there's a developmental QB who's 250 on their draft board vs. a linebacker who's 180 (i.e. a fairly sizeable difference), then I wouldn't want them to ignore their more coveted prospect just because maybe they'll get extremely lucky and strike gold on that QB when that has almost never happened historically.  If it was more like 250 vs. 245 then yeah sure let's just cross our fingers and take the QB because the opportunity cost is relatively minimal.  I'm just speaking theoretically here cause I obviously don't have access to the Panthers' draft board, but I think it's a safe assumption to say that they liked their late round selections significantly more than whatever bottom barrel QBs were available.

I think that neglects to consider the relative perceived value of the QB position. Very high. So formulaic consideration above my pay grade must be factored in. 

Basically if there is a question about a QB prospect he is gonna fall (unless it’s Bryce Young for some reason). If there are a couple of questions he’ll fall farther down. There are still people that slip through, although granted, it's a small number. 

I still think we could have found everything we are gonna see in Bryce, at far better value and I’ve been watching other teams hit on devalued players, I want some of that. 

Edited August 9 by strato

[MasterAwesome]

13 minutes ago, strato said:

I 

I think that neglects to consider the relative perceived value of the QB position. Very high. So formulaic consideration above my pay grade must be factored in. 

Basically if there is a question about a QB prospect he is gonna fall. If there are a couple oopf questions he’ll fall farther down. There are still people that slip through, although granted, it's a small number. 

I still think we could have found everything we are gonna see in Bryce, at far better value and I’ve been watching other teams hit on devalued players, I want some of that. 

Ok well then that would take me back to my original question of how many late round QBs have amounted to anything beyond journeyman back-up QB?  If you want to argue that it's a worthwhile investment to keep spending late round picks on developmental QBs then I would expect you to at least give a few examples of franchise QBs taken in the 5th-7th rounds (again, other than Brady).  I mean we could maybe eventually say Brock Purdy if he continues to perform admirably, but people in here are adamant that he's a bum who is carried by his supporting cast anyways so I doubt that's the type of QB they are hoping for when they advocate for drafting late-round developmental QBs.  Sam Howell I guess is someone whose career is worth keeping an eye on, but it's not a great start so far considering his team shipped him away one year after drafting him for a negligible return.

I spent a little bit of time trying to look into it and it looks like we're having to go back to the late 90s/early 2000s for success stories like superstars Marc Bulger, Matt Hasselbeck, and Ryan Fitzgerald - basically fringe starters when they were at their peak.  Maybe Hasselbeck could've been considered a franchise QB in his day, but I don't think he'd cut it in the present era.