Bryce Young won't play in preseason opener

[MasterAwesome]

15 hours ago, CRA said:

every offense he has been involved with has relied on chunk pass plays downfield.   Not just relied on them but more often than not tops of the league as well.

That’s not a good pairing for Bryce 

now you could argue he suddenly do something different but to date he has never been around a successful O that didn’t rely on it.   

and his first major investment was a downfield jump ball WR so that leads me to believe that’s still his ideal brand of football.   

Hope I’m wrong and he is some grand wizard and invents something Bryce would thrive in….but I’m a need to see it guy at this point to believe it

It seems like a stretch to assign so-and-so personal preferences to Canales from his years as QB Coach for guys like Russell Wilson and Geno Smith.  I think lumping Canales' entire employment history together muddies the water, when the specific role he played is pretty damn important.  His role as QB Coach and his role as Offensive Coordinator shouldn't be indiscriminately bucketed together broadly as "offenses he has been involved in".  Like I don't think McCown deserves to have Bryce Young linked to him as a personal preference in QB type, simply because he was tasked with coaching him. 

Canales has only had one season with any kind of play-calling authority to try and deduce what offense he likes to run, and it's a matter of cause-and-effect as to whether he utilized the deep pass because that's his general preference, or if he did it because he had a roster that was built to take advantage of it (Baker + Mike Evans). Whether intentionally or not, I think treating this pairing as a mismatch prematurely paints Canales as some kind of stubborn one-trick pony who is unable to adapt his scheme to his roster's strengths/weaknesses.  I don't know whether he is or not (because his sample size is way too small), but at the end of the day I think that's the bare minimum we would expect of a head coach/offensive coordinator - designing an offensive system that complements your roster.  I don't think that requires him to be a "grand wizard".  If he's the type of coach who is trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, then he's not the right guy with or without Bryce Young at QB.

[PNW_PantherMan]

22 minutes ago, Newtcase said:

Statistically Mahommes was pressured more (152 to 150) and hit more (65 to 50) than Bryce last year, yet only sacked 27 times to Bryce's 62.  But Bryce copers on here acting like no one could be successful under pressure.

Honorable Mention for Jared Goff as well.

[PanthersGTI]

I mean with Dalton down and Plummer being a UDFA if Young were to go down you could shoot your season in the foot now. Especially opening up with a division game. Could have played a part. 

[CRA]

7 minutes ago, MasterAwesome said:

It seems like a stretch to assign so-and-so personal preferences to Canales from his years as QB Coach for guys like Russell Wilson and Geno Smith.  I think lumping Canales' entire employment history together muddies the water, when the specific role he played is pretty damn important.  His role as QB Coach and his role as Offensive Coordinator shouldn't be indiscriminately bucketed together broadly as "offenses he has been involved in".  Like I don't think McCown deserves to have Bryce Young linked to him as a personal preference in QB type, simply because he was tasked with coaching him. 

Canales has only had one season with any kind of play-calling authority to try and deduce what offense he likes to run, and it's a matter of cause-and-effect as to whether he utilized the deep pass because that's his general preference, or if he did it because he had a roster that was built to take advantage of it (Baker + Mike Evans). Whether intentionally or not, I think treating this pairing as a mismatch prematurely paints Canales as some kind of stubborn one-trick pony who is unable to adapt his scheme to his roster's strengths/weaknesses.  I don't know whether he is or not (because his sample size is way too small), but at the end of the day I think that's the bare minimum we would expect of a head coach/offensive coordinator - designing an offensive system that complements your roster.  I don't think that requires him to be a "grand wizard".  If he's the type of coach who is trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, then he's not the right guy with or without Bryce Young at QB.

all we got is what we got.  and every O (no exception) he has been involved with on this level has featured it as a main component in the pass game. 

so again, that's all we got to go off on.  well, and his very first investment being a WR that fits that style of play. 

and I don't think Canales champions himself as some offensive whiz.  So I assume what he has been around his entire NFL career likely is what he is.  Until proven otherwise.  I'll gladly be wrong though.   But anything else is just imagination IMO.  Which I don't do with this team anymore.  

[Icege]

1 hour ago, Newtcase said:

Statistically Mahommes was pressured more (152 to 150) and hit more (65 to 50) than Bryce last year, yet only sacked 27 times to Bryce's 62.  But Bryce copers on here acting like no one could be successful under pressure.

Honorable Mention for Jared Goff as well.

I respect the attempt to strawman, but it wasn't just protection. Weapons that can get open would have helped tremendously.

Bryce also had a higher pressure %, which would have been a more accurate way to rank who was under pressure most often. Mahomes was pressured just twice more on 70 more attempts.

Is he the guy? idk but I do know that last year he flashed despite everything going wrong that could. Can he consistently show those flashes? We'll have to just wait and see.

 

Edited August 8 by Icege

[Newtcase]

17 minutes ago, Icege said:

I respect the attempt to strawman, but it wasn't just protection. Weapons that can get open would have helped tremendously.

Bryce also had a higher pressure %, which would have been a more accurate way to rank who was under pressure most often. Mahomes was pressured just twice more on 70 more attempts.

Is he the guy? idk but I do know that last year he flashed despite everything going wrong that could. Can he consistently show those flashes? We'll have to just wait and see.

 

Our weapons looked great against Green Bay and everyone ran around saying how great Bryce played.  They played pretty damn decent against Seattle as well.  You could consider the possibility that we're not as bad as Bryce made them look as they looked a helluva lot better on his best day didn't they?

Pointing out higher success against higher pressure rates is a direct argument against "No one could succeed under that amount of pressure".  In no way is this a strawman argument.  If it is then anyone, any time, anywhere could claim any comparison is a strawman.  If you could draw a more direct argument then I'd love to hear it.

Regarding pressure %, if Bryce were a little more successful and sustained a few more drives then there would have been more plays to dilute this metric.  His very failure contributes to less plays and a higher percentage, he IS PART OF THE METRIC being higher.

Beyond that the you're avoiding the obviousness of it all.  Mahommes and Goff were both under tremendous pressure all season and turned in spectacular results.  In my mind there's no room to say "No one could play with that pressure" when clearly there are guys that are, including Dalton when he had the chance on the same team.

EDIT: In fact, it's you making the strawman by pivoting your argument to wide receiver separation vs. directly addressing performance under pressure.

Edited August 8 by Newtcase

[csx]

Given the injury to Dalton I can see the logic for this game.  I sure hope they give him some time in the other games though.

[Icege]

1 minute ago, Newtcase said:

Our weapons looked great against Green Bay and everyone ran around saying how great Bryce played.  They played pretty damn decent against Seattle as well.  You could consider the possibility that we're not as bad as Bryce made them look as they looked a helluva lot better on his best day didn't they?

Pointing out higher success against higher pressure rates is a direct argument against "No one could succeed under that amount of pressure".  In no way is this a strawman argument.  If it is then anyone, any time, anywhere could claim any comparison is a strawman.  If you could draw a more direct argument then I'd love to hear it.

Regarding pressure %, if Bryce were a little more successful and sustained a few more drives then there would have been more plays to dilute this metric.  His very failure contributes to less plays and a higher percentage, he IS PART OF THE METRIC being higher.

Beyond that the you're avoiding the obviousness of it all.  Mahommes and Goff were both under tremendous pressure all season and turned in spectacular results.  In my mind there's no room to say "No one could play with that pressure" when clearly there are guys that are, including Dalton when he had the chance on the same team.

 

Out of all of the receivers, only Adam Thielen had a good one. If the receivers were performing well and Bryce was making them look bad as you're suggesting, this would look a lot different:

It is the very definition of a strawman argument because you're attempting to take a rookie QB that had no protection, receivers that could not separate, bad play calling, and bad play design and compare him to a x3 Super Bowl champion and a QB that has been in the league since 2016. It is purposefully sidestepping the fact that the Panthers' weapons were bad and had some of the worst separation in the league. As we can see from the graphic I posted previously, Mahomes' had receivers that had 3.5+ yards of separation.

You stated, "if Bryce sustained more drives," as if he was doing this alone. Again, how is a QB supposed to operate when he's being pressured on nearly 25% of his passing attempts and all of his targets save for Adam Thielen have a lower separation average than the league's?

It's worth noting that the league average for separation was 2.94yds. The graphic showing Mahomes' targets show that they more than cleared that. Neither him nor Goff played under the conditions that Bryce did, who had to do it during his rookie season. Hell, if you want to compare Goff to Bryce then compare their rookie seasons when the Rams went 0-7 with Goff as the starter. Otherwise... strawman.

[Icege]

17 minutes ago, csx said:

Given the injury to Dalton I can see the logic for this game.  I sure hope they give him some time in the other games though.

Dunc (Unnecessary Bluntness) tweeted something along those lines and it made sense. I can see them giving Bryce reps in the second and third preseason game. If he doesn't get any I might start to be concerned.

[frankw]

[Newtcase]

5 minutes ago, Icege said:

It is the very definition of a strawman argument because you're attempting to take a rookie QB that had no protection, receivers that could not separate, bad play calling, and bad play design and compare him to a x3 Super Bowl champion and a QB that has been in the league since 2016.

Dude, you're clowning right?  Otherwise you have no idea what a strawman actually is.  Let me spell it out for you.

Did Mahommes perform well under pressure? Yes or No (Support with direct evidence)

Did Goff perform well under pressure?  Yes or No (Support with direct evidence)

Did Bryce perform well under pressure?  Yes or No (Support with direct evidence)

Answers....Yes, Yes, No.

Once you start arguing outside of the evidence you are presenting a strawman argument.  Now if you want to present a new argument about comparing experience or WR separation by all means make that argument.  But this argument is simply that two QBs performed much better under similar pressure.

[Icege]

10 minutes ago, Newtcase said:

Dude, you're clowning right?  Otherwise you have no idea what a strawman actually is.  Let me spell it out for you.

Did Mahommes perform well under pressure? Yes or No (Support with direct evidence)

Did Goff perform well under pressure?  Yes or No (Support with direct evidence)

Did Bryce perform well under pressure?  Yes or No (Support with direct evidence)

Answers....Yes, Yes, No.

Once you start arguing outside of the evidence you are presenting a strawman argument.  Now if you want to present a new argument about comparing experience or WR separation by all means make that argument.  But this argument is simply that two QBs performed much better under similar pressure.

Quote

noun: strawman
1. an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.
"her familiar procedure of creating a straw man by exaggerating their approach"

 

By the very definition, your attempt to exclusively focus on protection is a strawman.

As stated already, the combination of bad protection, lack of separation, poor play design, and poor play calling made life even more difficult for a rookie QB. Nobody could have performed well under those conditions. You're picking strictly one part of that and pointing out that a x3 SB champ and 8yr vet were pressured a similar amount of times played better. You're doing this because think that you can easily defeat that when the actual argument is ALL of those factors made success impossible for any QB. Not just one factor.

tldr; nobody has said Bryce played bad just because of the bad protection so your attempt to focus solely on that when comparing a rookie to a x3 SB champ + 8yr vet is a strawman fallacy.

Edited August 8 by Icege

[frankw]

The best direct comp situationally is Sam Howell. Bad football team. Bad franchise. Bad offensive line. He was sacked even more times than our QB. Yet he still finished 12th in total passing yards and 12th in passing yards per game. His turnovers and decision making were his undoing. But you can have a bad situation around you and still move the ball. Comparatively BY was 35th in passing yards per game. Just barely ahead of Kenny Pickett and Tyson Bagent. The latter of which truthfully outperformed Bryce in our match up against the Bears last season.

Howell was sent packing for his gaffes despite the circumstances he faced. Bryce is being held out of the first preseason game after one of the worst rookie seasons ever.

So far the Panthers are only making a mockery of themselves.

[Newtcase]

19 minutes ago, Icege said:

You stated, "if Bryce sustained more drives," as if he was doing this alone. Again, how is a QB supposed to operate when he's being pressured on nearly 25% of his passing attempts and all of his targets save for Adam Thielen have a lower separation average than the league's?

I want to address this metric as well.

Things like pressures, hits and sacks are cold hard facts.  No nuisance at all.

But WR separation charts....hmmm...tell me more.  I have questions.

Is the amount of separation measured for each pass at the moment the ball arrives to intended receiver?  If it is how do we know the pass didn't affect the seperation?  I.E. thowing someone open vs a receiver needing to slow down for an underthrown pass, thus allowing a defender to catch up?  We certainly saw plenty of this and it's certainly a demarcation point for good vs bad QBs.

Maybe the amount of separation is for every receiver on every play.  If it is at what point is it measured?  How does the statistic recorder know where the route is supposed to create separation?

Does it account for other receivers that may have been wide open or just the one the pass went to?

Please explain to me these from your chart.