A look at the Offensive Upgrades: Wide Receiver

[MHS831]

Please don't start derailing this by telling everyone how bad Young is--we are addressing it, and one of the problems he had was little to no WR separation.  No longer a problem, on paper.

there is nothing coming out about the season concerning the Panthers this summer--so I thought I would look at the areas we upgraded over the next week or two, starting today--these are my thoughts, so feel free to contradict me--I am excited about the WR corps for 2024, but it stands to look very different in 2025--and I think we need to build the roster with 2025 in mind.  It is possible that the top 2 WRs could be gone after this season, the impact would be minimal if Mingo, Marshall, and Smith-Marsette figure it out.  If they do, and a player like Jalen Coker has perfected route running by 2025, this group could be solid.  But for now, 2024, Johnson/Thielen/Legette/Mingo  sounds a lot better than Chark/Theilen/Mingo/Marshall in 2023.

Deonte Johnson: (5' 10", 185)  We got a borderline #1 WR for an oft-injured CB we were going to lose anyway.  Johnson had Pickett, Trubiski, and Rudolph at QB and still garnered 717 yards.  With the new OL and better TE play, coaching, and system upgrades, I expect Johnson to be a tremendous upgrade over Chark.  At 28, Johnson is in his prime.  (Situation:  We need him to be around 1000 yards. He can change speeds and directions, making covering him difficult.  If given time, Young can hit the open WR and Johnson is good at creating separation.  Will he be here for 2025?  Who knows?k

Adam Thielen:  (6' 2", 201) At age 33, he doesn't need to match his 1000 yard season of 2023, but he needs to get open, and that is what he does. An excellent route runner and solid #2, he is best when he compliments a top WR as he did in Minnesota.  This should be his last season, but his impact on the developing WRs on the roster should make them better as well.  Excellent route runner, big WR in the slot--Young knows where he is)

Xavier Legette: (6' 1", 221)  The wild card, and I expect him to start slow until the light comes on--at that time, the Panthers should have one of the best top 3 WR tandems in the NFL.  Ideally, Legette plays so well in 2024 that it takes the pressure away from re-signing Johnson.  I imagine he will play the Z WR this season.

Johnathan Mingo: Mingo (6'1", 220--the same size of Legette) was not bad in 2023.  He was 57th in the league in receptions last season, and accumulated 418 yards.  Those are solid numbers for a #3 WR, but he was actually in the #2 role quite a bit.  Regardless, of the 83 targets (nearly 5 per game), he came down with 43 (around 2.5 per game).  That could be due to  QB accuracy or timing, and it could be due to his struggles to get open.  Regardless, as a #4, it will be interesting to see what this does to his development and opportunities.  Mingo needs to improve because there is a good chance Theilen is in his final season.

Terrace Marshall Jr.:  (6'3", 200) With only 19 catches in 17 games, Marshall needs a solid preseason to encourage a trade or secure a roster spot.  He is a big WR, but he is only 24.  However, the Panthers just added a big WR from the SEC--where and when would he get time?  As a #5, can he play special teams?  He has slipped from #2 WR to #4 WR to #5 WR in 2024.  Not a good direction. They have toyed with him in the slot, and in 2022 he caught 24 of 28 passes for first downs. Is there a future for him?  He did ask for a trade last season, so he is frustrated.  Keep an eye on him this preseason.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette:  (6'1", 185) Probably more special teamer than rotational player, Smith-Marsette flashed in 2023 running reverses and punt returns, He was targeted 10 times and he caught 8.  He will be 25 when the season begins, so there is still time--he has been a WR on teams that were deep at WR at the time (Minnesota and KC) and he did not stick with the Bears, which could be a red flag.  He has a great opportunity here, because if he can stick, there is a chance that Marshall, Thielen, and Marshall could be gone in 2025, leaving the door open for a WR with his skill set in the rotation.

David Moore: (6'0", 220)  An interesting signing because he had over 1000 yards in receiving between 2018 and 2020 and then he disappeared.  I think he is camp fodder with the potential to make the roster.  However, the seventh WR on the depth chart should be a young, developing WR, not a 30 year old who has caught 2 passes in the past three years.

Jalen Coker: (6'2", 210) Coker has a chance, but he will probably spend the season on the PS.  he features an incredible vertical (42.5") which is evident when he high points the ball, but a rather pedestrian 4.57 40.  He will need to become a very good route runner and if so, he could become a deadly red zone threat.  Lotta "Ifs" to his game right now, but he was very productive in college on a small school level.  Still, the best scenario for Coker is to develop technique for at least a season and look for a roster spot in 2025.

[strato]

I’m looking forward to seeing the offensive plan more than any other thing.

Otherwise I don’t have much if anything to add about those players excpt maybe, camp is gonna be big for the young WRs.

For as far back as I remember, the WR position was considered to be one where patience was needed. The wait until year 3 is something I heard a lot. I don’t know where that went but I bet some guys still do need time. The coaching chaos probably cost Mingo and TMJr developmental time, as well. 

Wait for the hitting and let’s see. 

[MHS831]

6 minutes ago, strato said:

I’m looking forward to seeing the offensive plan more than any other thing.

Otherwise I don’t have much if anything to add about those players excpt maybe, camp is gonna be big for the young WRs.

For as far back as I remember, the WR position was considered to be one where patience was needed. The wait until year 3 is something I heard a lot. I don’t know where that went but I bet some guys still do need time. The coaching chaos probably cost Mingo and TMJr developmental time, as well. 

Wait for the hitting and let’s see. 

Excellent points--for Mingo to have over 400 yards under these conditions is not bad when compared to other WRs drafted when he was taken--but Mingo probably had to take on a larger role that ideal.  Still, the catch to target number could go up to average and he'd be in the 500-600 range.  Marshall could not have joined the Panthers at a worse time.    I think Mingo will probably drop off a slight bit in 2024 because he is now the #4, but in 2025, he might tear it up.  Marshall?  A great example (like Darnold, Mayfield, Young) of being in a bad system. WRs bust--most of them do, actually, so we need to factor that into our expectations--but I think the reason they bust is based on variables such as coaching, the system, the qb room, etc.  Canales seems to get this and he seems to understand what the QB needs and works within that framework--instead of forcing the player into the system so much.   WRs have favorite routes--some prefer looking over their left shoulder as opposed to the right, etc.  Know your players and develop a plan that plays to their strengths.  Tangent over. !!

[BrianS]

FWIW:  I saw a stat over the offseason that showed Mingo had the most uncatchable balls in the NFL thrown his way.  I'm definitely not ready to write him off just yet.

[strato]

I have said all along that the staff knows one hundred percent what they have. Ands last yuear was a chinese fire drill. Maybe now I should call it a DC fire drill. 

But there is no reason they can’t come in with a good plan for these players. 

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, strato said:

I’m looking forward to seeing the offensive plan more than any other thing.

Otherwise I don’t have much if anything to add about those players excpt maybe, camp is gonna be big for the young WRs.

For as far back as I remember, the WR position was considered to be one where patience was needed. The wait until year 3 is something I heard a lot. I don’t know where that went but I bet some guys still do need time. The coaching chaos probably cost Mingo and TMJr developmental time, as well. 

Wait for the hitting and let’s see. 

Unfortunately in the modern game the old adage about rookie WR's mostly disappearing has been turned on its head over the past 8-10 years. So when you see young WR's mostly flounder for the first 2-3 seasons of their career, it's usually a pretty good sign they just aren't going to pan out.

In that vein, TMJ is a complete bust. We still have some high on the hopium for the kid but it's very unrealistic to expect him to pan out.

Mingo definitely had a rough start to his career. I hope it turns around this year but with two actual NFL caliber WR's on the roster now(Johnson and AT), I suspect his role will be significantly reduced from last season. Hopefully the light clicks on.

[Iceup]

IMO the biggest Question mark will be can any of these guys stretch the field vertically  on a consistent basis. There is some speed in the group but no real burners. I’d really like to see us be able to connect deep from time to time. That part of the passing game could really compliment our desire to run the football.

[strato]

That is pretty much critical and the biggest question in my mind. A lot say Icky and the C position which will play into it. 

Someone said our QB had a 30% hit rate on deep balls in school. He looked bad throwing it last year. So it’s a pretty big question mark. The biggest one, really, at this point. 

[CamWhoaaCam]

Said it the moment the trade happened Deonte Johnson is going to be a true #1 WR. His ability to beat his man off the snap and get open will be huge for Bryce.

 

Xavier will also be a huge improvement because he has the ability to break tackles after the catch.

 

We improved the position a lot from last season. I think Thielen will benefit the most because he now has WRs who can actually be a threat in the offense. No disrespect to Mingo, but he's more of a project right now. 

 

I like this group.

[outlaw4]

56 minutes ago, Iceup said:

IMO the biggest Question mark will be can any of these guys stretch the field vertically  on a consistent basis. There is some speed in the group but no real burners. I’d really like to see us be able to connect deep from time to time. That part of the passing game could really compliment our desire to run the football.

There's been a ton of emphasis on stretching the field when the league in general has trended away from days where we had 55-50 shootouts with long bombs all day long. 

What's more valuable in my eyes nowadays is guys that can get open quickly and get us some YAC. Deonte may be a great help here but the downside is that he may just be a stopgap solution. Thielen can get open, surely, but extra yards will be at a premium. I want to like Legette but I fear he's a square peg when we really need a round one. Everyone else is a question mark but frankly, the schemes we ran last season made success far more difficult than it should've been. This is where Canales and company can be of most help but for a lot of the carryovers like TMJ, this is probably their last chance to show something. 

[Khyber53]

I'm excited at the possibilities before us. Gosh, I hope it works.

I hope this coach can and will be allowed to coach.

I hope we have an actual game plan.

I hope we can develop young players.

I hope we have an offensive line.

I hope the little guy can live up to the his draft status.

I hope that we can make some serious noise in an NFCSouth that is still incredibly weak.

I hope this isn't just another wasted year.

[Navy_football]

I think the team lacked a 50/50 guy on the outside more than anything. It's pretty hard to get wide open deep in the NFL - unless you have that Tedd Ginn/Tyreek Hill speed. The jump ball guys are more likely now adays. Hopefully Legette and/or Coker can serve in that role. There was no one all season last year that could go up and snatch it from a defender. 

[strato]

Seems like that is why Legette. Gettleman tried tall to offset a wild high QB (which is a very flawed solution on its face). I think the jump ball guy in this sitiuation is a sound approach. 

Actually with as much air as we will likely see under deep balls, an outfielder type that can flag it down will have an easier time getting to it than an off target flat trajectory ball. More time in the air. Which so will the defenders but we have the jump ball guy, so advantage... maybe.

edit: and that is also one of my total favorite things: understanding how to turn a disadvantage into an advantage. If your QB can’t rope a deep ball, you have to find another way. 

Edited July 18 by strato

[Basbear]

Its the one group who should benefit the most from the new staff. THe HC and OC have WRC roots with great results. 

 

Plus Ive been hearing glowing reports about TMJ, whom I have gave up on. I mean this is it for him and a couple others here, no excuses for WRs.