Call me crazy, but we might have improved the pass rush after all

[Aussie Tank]

Burns seemed to get all his sacks early when he could catch a tackle off guard by his speed. Once they got use to him they could shut him down that’s my opinion 

[kungfoodude]

I suspect the pass rush will drop off overall, as will the defense overall. Nothing major, but noticeable.

They aren't giving Evero an easy hand to play with, that's for sure. 

[PleaseCutStewart]

2 hours ago, Ricky Prickles said:

Im guessing he means us as a fan base linked and drawn to our team that we support all in it together. Pretty common sense what he meant is it not?

I hate when people say crap like that dude. Thank you for shaming him and I hope everyone else does also

[Call Me James]

5 hours ago, trucpfan said:

Imagine if the secondary stays healthy and the new players are actually better at pass rushing we might be in for a nice surprise.

I’m all for it! 

[MHS831]

DO not rule out Barno.   He has improved.

[carpanfan96]

Lot of fallacy going by snap count when the panthers defense had the fewest number of pass rush snaps. It’s why wonnum was nearly dead last in efficiency stats last season. He got his numbers on triple the pass rush attempts than Burns did. 

[strato]

1 hour ago, carpanfan96 said:

Lot of fallacy going by snap count when the panthers defense had the fewest number of pass rush snaps. It’s why wonnum was nearly dead last in efficiency stats last season. He got his numbers on triple the pass rush attempts than Burns did. 

This kind of stuff is why stats can commit larceny. 

[Basbear]

On 6/28/2024 at 11:52 AM, Icege said:

After overperforming in 2023, the Carolina Panthers' defense is once again being asked to do more with seemingly less. The same defense that was ranked #4 in average yards allowed per game (293.9) also happened to be ranked dead last in sacks (27) and hurries (18). How did the new front office decide to approach this group? By trading away the defense's best player (who also accounted for a third of the team's sacks), opting to not bring back a second rounder they had developed, and also didn't retain a veteran day three selection that had been with the team since 2018. To fill the voids created on the edges the team went and signed a pair of former Gamecocks (one of them being a former #1 overall pick) and a former first rounder that hasn't caught on yet in the league. On paper, it's understandably difficult for Panthers' faithful to believe that the names being brought in are going to be an improvement over what just left. However, on that piece of paper is a few data points that show that the team just might have improved the pass rush. Below are two tables: one showing how many snaps a player averaged before registering the corresponding stat, and the other showing a comparison between two starter groups.

Before we leap right into the starters, let's take a quick glance at the rotation. DJ Johnson and Amare Barno are returning depth pieces that are still developing. Johnson was likely going to be a three-year project, regardless of his age, and Barno was going to have to make an impact on special teams if he wanted to maintain a roster spot. Both showed minor flashes last season, Johnson with his play strength and ability to set the edge while Barno showed his speed and motor. The veteran rotational piece from last season's unit, Panthers' former fourth-rounder Marquis Haynes Jr, has been replaced by K'Lavon Chaisson who the Jaguars took at #20 in the 2020 draft. The 30yr old Haynes was oft-injured in 2023 with back and hip issues until a scary head injury in late December 2023. In his place the Panthers are hoping that the 24yr old LSU-product with an elite athletic profile will be able to provide some extra burst. Haynes was productive against the run, tackling runners behind the line almost twice as often as Chaisson, but in 142 snaps he failed to register a single hurry while Chaisson ironically averaged a hurry every 142 snaps. Chaisson also hit the QB nearly twice as often as Haynes did, and perhaps most importantly to Dan Morgan (who talked about needing to get opposing QBs on the ground), he knocked the QB down more often than any of the six players that we're looking at while not missing a tackle. We can see pretty clearly here that the pass rush numbers for Chaisson are better than Haynes', but Haynes was solid against the run. Chaisson not missing any tackles provides some relief/hope that he can improve there.

I think that at this point, we're all expecting the Jadaveon Clowney vs. Brian Burns comparison along with DJ Wonnum vs. Yetur Gross-Matos, but I'm going to do something a little bit different and compare them together (Clowney/Wonnum vs. Burns/YGM). With that said... a lot of the numbers look to be essentially the same. The biggest differences we see immediately is that Burns + YGM were getting ballcarriers down behind the line almost twice as often, but otherwise like the Chaisson vs. Haynes comparison we can see that these guys appear to perform mostly the same against the run. Where we do see the improvement though is in the pass rush numbers. Not only did Clowney/Wonnum sack the QB more often, they hurried opposing teams' passers much more often Burns/YGM. We can also see a relevant difference between pass deflections and forced fumbles as well. This is going to be very important for Evero's defense that uses disguised coverages to buy the rush an extra half of a second to get there. More PDs, sacks, and hurries means more forced throws. More forced throws means less accurate throws and more hurried decisions... two important ingredients for creating interceptions.

Perhaps the biggest question mark this upcoming season is whether or not these guys can stay healthy. Clowney is getting longer in the tooth, Wonnum is coming off of a torn quadricep that has kept him sidelined during the offseason, and Chaisson has lost two of the previous four seasons to injuries (torn ACL in 2021, torn meniscus in 2022). At least they won't withhold effort because they're afraid of getting hurt? Clowney and Wonnum are both signed through 2025, but both deals are set-up to allow the Panthers' to not be tied down to them should their performance this season lead to concerns for 2025.

tldr; the pass rush statistically improved by swapping Burns/Gross-Matos/Haynes for Clowney/Wonnum/Chaisson. Hurray!

 

 

You have one saving grace to your big statement- biltz

 

Evero was known to be great blitz play caller and designer..... He did not show ANY of that last year. Now with more players familiar with his system, he should dial up some biltzs. 

[strato]

I am a fan of good defense and Evero has me in his corner. I think he knows what he needs to know (and has Dom right there if he could help him with something).

The more players he has that he is comfortable with scheming for, knows what he is going to get, the better. Kind of, period. 

Edited June 30 by strato

[Martin]

I hope we have an improved pass rush, but time will tell. One thing I feel really good about is our run defense. Massive upgrade compared to last year. Clowney vs. Burns in the run game isn’t even a competition.

[Gapanthersfan]

13 hours ago, Martin said:

I hope we have an improved pass rush, but time will tell. One thing I feel really good about is our run defense. Massive upgrade compared to last year. Clowney vs. Burns in the run game isn’t even a competition.

Once Burns was full engaged by any O lineman, it was usually a wrap after that. He never just straight bullied people and was easily handled. Brown and Luvu were our chance at not letting run go for 7+. I sincerely hope the attitude is there so it changes for the better this year

[csx]

On 6/30/2024 at 4:16 AM, carpanfan96 said:

Lot of fallacy going by snap count when the panthers defense had the fewest number of pass rush snaps. It’s why wonnum was nearly dead last in efficiency stats last season. He got his numbers on triple the pass rush attempts than Burns did. 

Three times huh? 

Opponent Pass Attempts (per game):

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-pass-attempts-per-game

Carolina: 28 3

Minnesota: 35.6

 

 

 

 

[csx]

On 6/30/2024 at 5:34 AM, strato said:

This kind of stuff is why stats can commit larceny 

 The crime is when someone makes up stats that are otherwise easy to find and people believe them

[strato]

I may be off on this one but I see so much bullshit in general, that has stats to back it up. You can twist numbers all around by changing the way you get them.

Edited July 1 by strato