REPORT: ESPN's FPI gives Panthers a 0-percent chance to win Super Bowl LIX

[Day1PanthersFan]

We probably have like a 10% chance to win a game this season 

[Pejorative Miscreant]

4 hours ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

When it comes to the Panthers, their FPI is the league-worst at -7.6. So, perhaps it’s no surprise that their chances of winning Super Bowl LIX, at least according to these analytics, are also the worst—at 0 percent.

But misery loves company. Carolina is joined in what appears to be the “No chance in hell” category by the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and Tennessee Titans.

FPI is also giving the Panthers a 4.5-percent shot at making the playoffs and a 2.7-percent shot at winning the NFC South.

https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/31/espns-fpi-panthers-super-bowl-lix/

What are the odds on having an interim coach by December?  Wonder how much higher than making the playoffs.  Started writing this response in complete jest but now I’m genuinely curious.  

[strato]

3 hours ago, WUnderhill said:

I don’t take anybody seriously who gives 0% or 100% odds on the future.

Depends. Dying, is 100% an outcome for everyone. I think. Pretty sure.

 That, and a Tepper team being in disarray, almost a sure thing.

Edited June 1 by strato

[KSpan]

Reasonable. 

[outlaw4]

Whatever they're using, chuck it in the trash. Grant you, the odds would be rather dire but 0%? Even someone like me could conjure a hypothetical where we could win and - as such - the odds would not be zero.

1. Most of our offseason moves end up working. Better O-line play, BY has more GB 2023 like games. Run game becomes top dozen. We constantly win TOP which keeps our defense fresh.

2. We're in the NFC South. A ticket to the playoffs only requires winning the division, even with a losing record which we've done before.

3. Playoffs is a lot about matchups. You get a team that limped in and/or lost their QB late. Or you get the Cowboys and they beat themselves like they usually do. Or we simply get opponents that are quite suspectible to what we do best. Obviously, there's a ton of luck involved but given how Canales seems to want something that may be a reminder of John Fox Panthers football, well, that type of thing actually works better in the playoffs. 

4. And of course, the Super Bowl. Yeah, you could get the Chiefs or who knows, maybe the Texans make a run. We inexplicably won against them last season. Maybe we somehow simply have their number.

Yes, all of this is very much a long shot but at least for me, the biggest factor is "Can you get in the playoffs in the first place and have the stars align?" Play with the variables enough and you'll find a path.

[strato]

That’s some funny poo, thanks.

[Mage]

14 hours ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

FPI is also giving the Panthers a 4.5-percent shot at making the playoffs and a 2.7-percent shot at winning the NFC South.

I don't expect we will be good this year, but I would put a small bet on those odds.  We play in the worst division in the NFL and the best QB in the division (Cousins) is coming off a torn Achilles.  

Patriots and Titans have to deal with tough divisions and good QBs.  Broncos have Mahomes and Herbert in their division.  So if you are a betting man and planned to put money on any of the bad teams going into the season, then the smart play very well could be the Panthers.  

[Waldo]

11 hours ago, Day1PanthersFan said:

We probably have like a 10% chance to win a game this season 

It's football and any given Sunday. Look at the GB game last year. They gave up after getting ahead and almost let the Panthers come back. It's like Ian Thomas catching a ball, it happens because the other team forgets it can happen when it doesn't happen that often. 

[thunderraiden]

15 hours ago, jasonluckydog said:

So your saying we have a shot?

 

I'm betting my life savings that the Panthers win it all. How much would I win if bet $75.00?

$18,825 in Caesar sports book right now in Tennessee so prob $20k even in Vegas.

[WhoKnows]

16 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I am here for the New England and Denver dumpster fires. Both franchises are richly deserving of it.

They are but TBH, I think I’d trade our QB for either of theirs, although Nix is clearly my least favorite. All the pre-Nix QBs as well and heck I think I’d rather have Levis just for his arm and thinking it’ll be easier to fix his turnovers than build an entire offense around unfixable physical issues.

Going to be a long couple years. Really hope the draft this year and the next two are amazing because we need that to get out of this 6 year old dumpster.

[WhoKnows]

16 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It does. There's definitely a fat more entrenched fanbase.

They also have 3 SB wins and more HOFers. Peppers is our first full HOFer versus guys who spend a few years with us. Elway by himself overshadows our history. Winning SB 50 would have been huge for our history, definitely putting that team into the greatest of all time discussions.

[kungfoodude]

47 minutes ago, WhoKnows said:

They are but TBH, I think I’d trade our QB for either of theirs, although Nix is clearly my least favorite. All the pre-Nix QBs as well and heck I think I’d rather have Levis just for his arm and thinking it’ll be easier to fix his turnovers than build an entire offense around unfixable physical issues.

Going to be a long couple years. Really hope the draft this year and the next two are amazing because we need that to get out of this 6 year old dumpster.

I don't really think either of those guys would move the needle much although their ceilings may be higher. I would say we are still not in a position to develop someone like Maye. He needs a ton of work and this isn't a place where he could develop.

For Nix, how would his situation be much different than similar lower ceiling rookies put in better situations recently? Is he better than Pickett or Mac Jones? Both of those guys were in far better situations and still failed.

Outside of a true HR pick, I don't think you are gonna see many rookie QB's look good given our situation.

[kungfoodude]

13 hours ago, Pejorative Miscreant said:

What are the odds on having an interim coach by December?  Wonder how much higher than making the playoffs.  Started writing this response in complete jest but now I’m genuinely curious.  

I don’t think we will fire Canales unless we are looking at another 1-2 win season. 

I think Tepper is going to have more patience with him, like he did Rhule. 

[Jay Roosevelt]

I actually think we stand a higher percentage chance of winning the NFC South than just making the playoffs as a wild card.

Edited June 1 by Jay Roosevelt