Grades are in; how did Panthers do in this years draft

[Jon Snow]

8 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

We did not have a first rounder and we traded down to acquire a second rounder.  That future player is not factored into the equation, so this is bullshite. 

We gave Bryce weapons and added a LB and CB.  That is all we could do. 

How many draft picks will see the field regularly (beyond special teams)?  A: 3. XL, Sanders, and Brooks.  There is a chance all will start at some point in 2024.  Not many teams WITH first rounders can say that.

 

To be fair, not many teams are so bad that they need rookies to start.

[MHS831]

Thanks Frank.  I enjoyed the video and agree we have been saying alot of the same thing--

• The biggest question mark on the OL is not center--it is left tackle.  This has to be Ickey's year.
• Sanders getting cut does not make sense.  If he can look good behind a good OL, and if Brooks is going to be phased in (injury), you keep him because it makes no financial sense to cut him this year.
• The only reason I could see keeping Ian Thomas on the roster is goal line offense.   I personally think his blocking is overrated.
• This guy said JT Sanders was also a good blocker--I have not seen that.  However,  I think Tremble and Sanders has the potential to be a good TE combo.
• He was hard on the CB selection in the draft.  5th round for a depth CB is fine.   I am not sure what he was expecting.  I think they are going to sign another former Gamecock who used to play CB soon.
• Finally, he is realistic about Young's year, but he is in "wait and see" mode.  That is how you approach it.  Cut him before building around the QB position or build around the QB position and give him another year?  It is a no brainer.

We are probably going to sign a free agent QB to keep on the PS when cuts are made.

 

[MHS831]

21 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

To be fair, not many teams are so bad that they need rookies to start.

That is correct and valid, and I def thought of it--but filling needs and building is one brick at a time.  The Panthers cannot afford to miss on 75% of their day 2 and 3 picks as is the norm. 

[Jon Snow]

Just now, MHS831 said:

That is correct and valid, and I def thought of it--but filling needs and building is one brick at a time.  The Panthers cannot afford to miss on 75% of their day 2 and 3 picks as is the norm. 

They definitely have to get better in the draft. My other big concern is whether this coaching staff has what it take to win some games. 

[MHS831]

I look at upside and production---

XL--can he produce at a high level?  I see him as boom or bust---so yes, but with cautious optimism. 

Brooks--the RB position is devalued and the player himself was a bit devalued, but if you consider how his running and catching (and blocking) can make this team better, there is a lot of value in a player that can upgrade your offense.  Considering we got a second rounder in addition to Brooks, the return could be incredible.

JT Sanders--For a fourth rounder, this guy has a high ceiling.  I think the attitude about the TE class after Bowers devalued a lot of good players who could become productive starters--just not on the LaPorta, Kincaid level, but maybe a notch below.   For our offense, this is better.

Let''s not forget the addition that has us all hopeful--WR Jalen Coker.  I think he will make the roster, contribute, and eventually (in 2025 or sooner if there is an injury) become part of the rotation.

[Davidson Deac II]

9 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

That is correct and valid, and I def thought of it--but filling needs and building is one brick at a time.  The Panthers cannot afford to miss on 75% of their day 2 and 3 picks as is the norm. 

25% of day 2/3 picks would be phenomenal.  

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High - Daily Norseman

Quote

But the reality is that most draft picks don’t work out. Whether they’re busts, didn’t live up to their draft position, had injury or off-field issues, didn’t do much to move the dial, or never played much, most draft picks turn out to be some level of disappointment, or don’t make much of a difference in the team’s success.

Five years ago I did a piece detailing how most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

• 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
• 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
• 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
• 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
• 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
• 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
• 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

Assuming the 30% includes first round picks, and that a draft success means the play spends significant amounts of time playing for the team that drafted him, a 25% success rate for day 2/3 picks would be well above average.  

Edited April 30, 2024 by Davidson Deac II

[MHS831]

Just now, Davidson Deac II said:

25% of day 2/3 picks would be phenomenal.  

Assuming the 30% includes first round picks, and that a draft success means the play spends significant amounts of time playing for the team that drafted him, a 25% success rate for day 2/3 picks would be well above average.  

That blows my mind too.  You know your system and the skill sets you covet--you have hours of game tape, you interview, you measure, you test, you weigh, you time--and 25% is the bar?  Now, I know some teams only have 2-3 openings some years, but dang.

[Deltek44]

12 hours ago, Chad_Cota said:

• 32nd: Xavier Legette (WR)- B // Imo better options for Bryce (Ladd McConkey). I am scared by Mingo and TMJ. 
• Trade Back with Rams (2025 2nd, 46th overall, and additonal 5th for 39th overall) A+++
• 46th: Brooks (RB)- B- // Zach Frazier was picked 6 spots later, We needed a Center more than a RB. 
• 72nd: Wallace (ILB)- C // Would have taken Cooper Beebe (G) //  Roman Wilson (WR) // Corum (RB) // Payton Wilson (LB) instead.
• 101th: Sanders (TE)- A // Needed a pass catching TE, should be able to develop. 
• 157th: Smith-Wade (CB)- B+ // Liked the nickle corner pick, had mulitple interceptions at the Sr. Bowl. 
• 200th: Crumedy (DT)- B // Lots of experience at MS. Rotational player, PS. 
• 240th: Barrett (OLB)- B+ // Special teamer, PS. Needed some depth here. 

Overall: I give it a B+ with the Rams trade. If Brooks makes it back healthy and Xavier has production. This could easily turn into one of the best drafts we ever had. Lot of boom or bust on this list. 

Man I am optimistic was yelling give BY a chance late in the season and getting killed for it but WOW a B+! The 240th pick a B+? It would be great if Sanders was an A but that seems high.

I personally don't think they hit it out of the park but it was not Dans fault he had limitation without 1STRD. I hope you are right!

[45catfan]

According to this article every one of our picks outside of Sanders was a reach.  I agree.

https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-draft-2024-panthers-reach-consenus-rankings/

[ForJimmy]

17 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

According to this article every one of our picks outside of Sanders was a reach.  I agree.

https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-draft-2024-panthers-reach-consenus-rankings/

Looks like we got 3 top 60 prospects on that persons list with no first round pick. Throw in the 2025 2nd round pick we got that sounds like a solid draft based on the rankings in that article. 

[Davidson Deac II]

7 hours ago, MHS831 said:

That blows my mind too.  You know your system and the skill sets you covet--you have hours of game tape, you interview, you measure, you test, you weigh, you time--and 25% is the bar?  Now, I know some teams only have 2-3 openings some years, but dang.

I think the mistake some teams make is focusing to much on certain players.  Personally, I would prefer to have more picks, especially when it comes to the 2nd and 3rd round.  Much greater chance of hitting.  

[45catfan]

8 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

Looks like we got 3 top 60 prospects on that persons list with no first round pick. Throw in the 2025 2nd round pick we got that sounds like a solid draft based on the rankings in that article. 

Again, I have have no real issues with the trades, well, maybe the Legette one.  Outside of that, we got good-to-great value out of the trades. I simply don't like what we did once the cards were turned in.  I have yet to see any draft expert in the media love our draft.  It's either average or not that good.  Not all these people are just opining idiots.  Morgan is either a genius or he simply reached.

[Jon Snow]

58 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Again, I have have no real issues with the trades, well, maybe the Legette one.  Outside of that, we got good-to-great value out of the trades. I simply don't like what we did once the cards were turned in.  I have yet to see any draft expert in the media love our draft.  It's either average or not that good.  Not all these people are just opining idiots.  Morgan is either a genius or he simply reached.

I think the mistake is thinking there's such a thing as a draft expert. If there was such a person they would be working for a team and not a network or talk show. It's all guess work and is nothing more than a crap shoot. 

Edited May 1, 2024 by Jon Snow

[ForJimmy]

2 hours ago, 45catfan said:

Again, I have have no real issues with the trades, well, maybe the Legette one.  Outside of that, we got good-to-great value out of the trades. I simply don't like what we did once the cards were turned in.  I have yet to see any draft expert in the media love our draft.  It's either average or not that good.  Not all these people are just opining idiots.  Morgan is either a genius or he simply reached.

Some of these guys are like 6 spots off of where they “projected” them without even looking at the needs of the teams drafting at that spot. Sanders was kind 50 spots later than this one projected. Seems like a normal draft with a “steal” in Sanders based on this one review. Rounds 5th and later are just team preferences.