Success (Starters) rate per round

[MHS831]

Historic Success Chart  (this chart is nine years old, but it shows the basic pattern of success)

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Disclaimer:  I realize the first thing some of you will attempt to do is discredit the validity of this empirical study in an attempt to invalidate any conclusions that differ from those you have developed without any degree of exhaustive research or mild inquiry--comparative analysis, data collection, or coding, etc.  So I suppose I should apologize in advance for providing unsubstantiated and unapproved data for our casual consumption; if you'd like, I can get the address for those at Pro Football Reference who are responsible and allow you to contact them or seek compensatory damages. 

If this information is still relatively accurate, the probable success rate for our WR selection yesterday should be in the 55-58% range, considering the depth of the position in this year's draft. 

FUN FACTS:  For those of you wanting to double dip at WR:  The probability of starting drops in half each round from the second to fourth, and then (strangely) jumps from 12% to 16% in round 5, dropping back down to 9% in round 6...Notice the incredibly high (compared to the others) rate of success for TEs taken in rounds 5 and 6.  TEs drafted in the fifth round nearly double the chance for starting when compared to nearly every other position.  In the sixth round, the chance for TEs becoming a starter is 10% higher than the next highest position--5 times higher than a sixth round LB, for example.

Statements that are related to the Panther situation based on this data:

• If we take a C in round 2 the chances of finding a starter are about three fourths (70%), the chances for drafting a LB in round 3 drops from more than half (55%) to a third (34%).  Finding a starting CB in the third round (opposed to the second) would drop from nearly half (46%) to a quarter (24%).
• If we take a LB in round 2, the chances of finding a starter are just over a half (55%).  Finding a starting CB in the third round (opposed to the second) would drop from nearly half (50%) to a quarter (24%).  Finding a starting C in the third would drop from 70% to 40%.
• If we take a CB in round 2, the chances of finding a starter are about 50%.  the chances of finding a starting C would drop from 70% to 40% in round 3.  The chances for drafting a LB in round 3 drops from more than half (55%) to a third (34%)

So what scenario gives us the highest percentage of finding 2 players in rounds 2 and 3 that give us the highest likelihood for finding starters?

• Round 2: Center 70%, LB 55%, CB, 50%
• Round 3:  Center 40%, LB 34%, and CB 24%

Other tips

• DAY 3:  This is when you draft the TE.  Between rounds 4-6, the percentage of finding a starter drops from 33% (rd 4) to 32% (rd. 5) to 26% (rd. 6). Recommendation: Draft your TE round 5.
• Round 4:  This is when you draft a Defensive Lineman.  37% chance of becoming a starter.  That is 10% higher than the third round and 24% higher than the fifth round.
• Round 5: The best round for drafting WR on day 3 (16% chance of starting).
• Round 7:  Draft a defensive back.  There is a one-in-nine chance of finding a starter--11%. 

PROGNOSIS:  Based on this draft, 

• If we draft Center (rd 2) and ILB (rd 3) and have the best chance of producing two starters 52%
• If we draft LB (rd 2) and Center (rd. 3) the chance for producing 2 starters is 47%.
• If we draft a CB (rd 2) and LB (rd 3), the chance for producing 2 starters is 42%.
• If we draft a LB (rd 2) and CB (rd 3) the chance for producing 2 starters is 39.5%.*

* in my opinion, based on the depth of this draft, this is probably what the Panthers will do--

At any rate, this is not law or current, but it does give you some ideas--hope you enjoy it.

 

Edited April 26 by MHS831