Final 1st Round Mock & 33 (by me)

[Bear Hands]

Don't want to clog up the main board-here's my final take at a predictive mock (with some major trades)

Getting something on the books/having some fun.  Wasn't a long effort, just an ongoing one I've been revising in GoogleDrive since March lol. Enjoy

 

2024 Mock Draft:

1 - CHI - Caleb Williams QB USC

Not much to say.  This is happening barring Caleb doing something career-ending. 

 

2 - WAS - Jayden Daniels QB LSU

Daniels ends up in DC.  If he hits, it will be above and beyond, so just roll the dice.  A new era in WAS begins.  Not buying rumors.  

 

*3 - MIN (from NE) - Drake Maye QB UNC

TRADE #1 - The Pats have a lot of needs at the start of their rebuild - a popular refrain is to stay put and grab a QB.  But if there’s a sweet offer here (and they’re obviously listening), I just think they take it and the Vikes will give them a crap ton.  Maye to Minnesota.  

 

4 - AZ - Marvin Harrison Jr WR OSU

I’m not biting that Arizona moves down like last year.  Don’t get cute, take the best player in the draft. 

 

*5 - NE (from LAC) - JJ McCarthy QB Michigan

TRADE #2 - The Patriots trade back up to get their guy.  They go with another QB out of Michigan and gain some capital from the trade down in the process.  

 

6 - NYG - Rome Odunze WR WASH 

I think they’re all about Rome if they can’t land a QB.  Big boost to the Big Apple’s struggling offense.  Slight surprise over Nabers.    

 

7 - TEN - Joe Alt LT Notre Dame 

TEN is a weird team.  HC-Callahan, QB-Levis, RB-Pollard/Spears, WR-Hopkins/Ridley.  I guess that’s what they’re rolling with after being big FA spenders. Alt has been an easy pick in mocks, but it’s for a reason.  Would be a huge get and they see if Levis has “it” in 2024.

 

8 - BUF (from ATL) - Malik Nabers WR LSU

MONSTER TRADE #3 - The Bills take an absolutely bonkers approach and trade up for Nabers.  Sending 28, R4, 2025’s 1st, 2nd and more.  Hell, maybe a player as well.    

 

9 - CHI - Byron Murphy II DT Texas

Poles stated their intentions to land one of the draft’s blue chip players so I don’t see them moving down. However, I think people are sleeping on how teams view Murphy.  I honestly love this fit.

 

10 - NYJ - Brock Bowers TE UGA

I don’t see Bowers falling much further.  I could see the Rams trying to trade up but I can also see Bowers just being the pick for NYJ, even if I prefer him elsewhere.  

 

*11 - LAC (from MIN through NE) - JC Latham OT Alabama

The Chargers move down and land an OL that fits Harbaugh’s style player to a tee.

 

12 - DEN - Dallas Turner DE/ED Alabama 

I’m not quite sure what the Broncos have in mind this offseason other than their uniform change.  I’m also unsure about Nix or Penix going this high.  Payton has high standards and I don’t see them reaching.  They take the top edge defender.   

 

13 - LVR - Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo 

The Raiders are in a spot where the fanbase is getting pretty antsy for an answer at QB.  However, this new regime has Telesco and Antonio Pierce at the helm.  Telesco loves getting sure things (new MO for the Raiders), and Pierce is all defense.  This selection gives them a stout CB1 across from Jack Jones.  Pair that with the DL they’re growing with Crosby, Wilkins, Tyree & Koonce, they could go from good to great on D.   

 

14 - NO - Troy Fautanu OT/G Washington

Their defense is in decent shape but if they want that offense to get more consistent, they would be wise to take advantage of the upper tier in this OL class, especially given their situation. Could be a good fit here.

 

15 - IND - Jared Verse EDGE FSU 

Indy goes against the commonly mocked routes for a top pass rusher. Versatile, would be a nice fit for them. I like Pearsall reuniting with AR in R2.

 

*16 - LAR (from SEA) - Laiaitu Latu DE/ED UCLA

TRADE #4 - I wanted Byron Murphy II for SEA, but I get a sense he’s coveted.  With him gone, SEA gets a pick or two from LAR.  LA grabs Latu to bolster their edge.  If a team okays his medicals, he’s arguably the top EDGE in the class.  

 

*17 - AZ (from JAX) - Graham Barton C/G/T Duke

TRADE #5 - Arizona trades back up with all of their ammunition gained for one of the guys a ton of teams like, and is going higher than you think.  

 

18 - CIN - Taliese Fuaga OT/G Oregon State

This could be a wise direction with Burrow’s history.  Sure, Trent Brown is signed and will be their LT, but Fuaga has some positional flexibility and this would make a lot of sense value wise (and for the future)  

 

*19 - SEA (from LAR) - Johnny Newton DT Illinois 

Seattle trades back and gets a dude who could help shape out their front-7 very nicely.  Reunites him with Witherspoon as well.  I like this fit a lot for Seattle.

 

20 - PIT - Olu Fashanu OT Penn State

I was thinking WR, but I see Pittsburgh being patient considering the depth of the class.  This is a super valuable selection.   Excellent fit here since Dan Moore is just a backup (as he should be).  Huge upside pick.

 

*21 - WAS (from MIA) - Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU

TRADE #5 - Miami has a handful of needs after a cap-casualty filled offseason.  Priority should be stabilizing that offensive line.  But if the guys they like are gone, they could take calls to gain some much needed picks.  Ideal scenario for WAS to keep Thomas and Daniels together. MIA dips out of R1, just slightly, can still fill their IOL needs just fine.

 

22 - PHI - Terrion Arnold CB Alabama 

Arnold is a great fit for their defense and I think this could work out quite nicely for them, staying put.  

 

*23 - NE (from MIN) - Amarius Mims OT UGA

NE is able to keep this pick with their reverse trade up for JJ.  Land a lineman, big need to help keep the kid upright.

 

24 - DAL - Ladd McConkey WR UGA 

Dallas is moving into a semi-rebuild situation.  Lots of needs.  I can see Ladd being a bit coveted once we’re around this spot. Also- after losing Pollard, they need someone to catch the quick ones from Dak.  Big needs on the OL can wait as they grab Ladd.

 

25 - GB - Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama 

The Packers are a team with particular standards at DL, OL and DB where you can take certain guys off their list.  This was Mims or Kool-Aid for me, and Mims is gone.

 

26 - TB - Cooper DeJean DB Iowa

They have some ties to the DBs and can see them taking DeJean to create a bit of a stabilizing force in their secondary.  

 

*27 - JAX (from AZ) - Adonai Mitchell WR Texas

This would be interesting for T Law.  Unsure if it’s a Baalke pick, they’re eyeing DBs, but this could be smart for them.  Their FA moves didn’t get it done receiver wise.  

 

*28 - ATL (from BUF) - Chop Robinson EDGE Penn State 

ATL is still able to target an EDGE defender after a huge trade down.  

 

*29 - LVR (from DET) - Michael Penix Jr. QB Washington

TRADE #6 - I can’t find the best fit for Detroit here, and if Penix is still on the board, maybe they take a trade.  Could still grab a hometown boy like Darius Robinson or Kris Jenkins at 44 in this scenario.  

 

30 - BAL - Jordan Morgan OT/G Arizona

Fresh off a big year, the league MVP now has Derrick Henry in house.  I think it would be smart to give them a boost up front.  This happens to fill a moderate need, but more importantly, it’s just smart for a team gunning for a SB.  They lost some in the front-7 and could use a defender, but they have more picks for that.  

 

31 - SF - Nate Wiggins CB Clemson 

The secondary could use a boost and they met with Wiggins (flew him out on a private 30).  His skills are elite, just needs some bulking.  Perfect for their Cover-3.

 

32 - KC - Kingsley Suamataia OG BYU

The WR spot is popular here, but they don’t need to force it.  Just as much need to protect Mahomes if they want to continue winning SBs.  

 

33 - CAR - Xavier Worthy WR Texas

I just think Morgan is going WR, there's no stopping him.  For Worthy, I’ve slowly come around on why this makes a lot of sense for us.  Not my top choice but this is predictive. 

After a closer look and challenging my own takes-- he doesn’t seem as scary as other speedsters like John Ross were in the past.  Think Worthy could be super interesting in this offense, his combination of footwork, balance, start/stop, and ability to quickly separate is what Bryce needs.  He hand catches, can be aggressive, and I see no reason why he can't put on 10 lbs.  Ceiling = TY Hilton meets Tank Dell meets DeSean.  Absolute field-stretcher & playmaker added.

 

Notable Outs:

Troy Franklin WR Oregon

Kris Jenkins DT Michigan - Watch for LAC Round 2 

Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma - Surprise, but big dude, injury history, some questions what spot is best

Jackson Powers-Johnson C Oregon - Injury rumors ring true and he doesn't go Round 1, and we don't select him.  

Xavier Legette WR South Carolina - will still be a top target for CAR in Round 2

Zach Frazier C WVU 

Junior Colson ILB Michigan

Mike Sainristil DB Michigan 

Marshawn Kneeland OLB/DE Western Michigan 

Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M

Darius Robinson ED/DL Missouri 

 

Full CAR Draft:

2-33 Xavier Worthy WR Texas

2-39 Junior Colson LB Michigan - A bit of a surprise but I think he's LB1 and we just plug him in.  Is Shaq even a certainty? Here's the new defensive general for the long term.  Led the best defense in the country to a title and checks nearly every box as a LB.  

3-65 (trade down for 3-72 & 4-111 from NYJ) 

3-72 Trey Benson RB FSU - He becomes a big part of the offense the second he's on the team.    

4-101 Javon Baker WR UCF - I really like this guy; a real DB-bully.  Has chemistry with Bryce too.  

4-111 Sedrick Van-Pran C UGA - Center Dice roll

5-141 Myles Harden CB South Dakota - DB Dice roll

5-142 Tip Reiman TE Illinois - I don't think we're using TE a ton in Canales' offense, but another late round gamble

 

[Leaky_Faucet]

Really good insight, Bear Hands.  I appreciate the breakdown. I am very interested to see who pulls the plug on the Tier II WRs.Of course, we all know the top 3, but when the  2nd tier of talent starts to go will determine who is left at 33. If it happens before 27 or so, I can see Carolina trading down or going BPA. If it happens later around pick 30, I could almost foresee a WR going at 33 to Carolina.

 

thanks for the insight!

[Shocker]

Nice effort and work but I disagree like crazy with the picks

[Bear Hands]

14 minutes ago, Shocker said:

Nice effort and work but I disagree like crazy with the picks

I’m honestly finding it tough as hell to project us. I have my favorites this year but they don’t really align with what I think we do.being predictive, I’m thinking about who we pick more than who I like and trying to reconcile that potential selection.

I.E. -

Big fan of Newton DT, Barton IOL, Frazier C, Sainistril CB, Polk WR, Kneeland ED/DE, Pearsall WR, Melton CB and a few others.. but it’s just kinda tough to figure out for this team. We’ve got a ways to go but I feel like they never lean towards the guys I like.

[Bear Hands]

2 hours ago, Leaky_Faucet said:

Really good insight, Bear Hands.  I appreciate the breakdown. I am very interested to see who pulls the plug on the Tier II WRs.Of course, we all know the top 3, but when the  2nd tier of talent starts to go will determine who is left at 33. If it happens before 27 or so, I can see Carolina trading down or going BPA. If it happens later around pick 30, I could almost foresee a WR going at 33 to Carolina.

 

thanks for the insight!

Thanks- Yeah I find our draft hugely dependent on where Ladd goes. I can see a scenario where he’s fairly coveted by a team like DAL where he compliments their current players rather well and slides right in on that depth chart. 

If him and BT go early/mid 20s, then we could be in for a ride.

The other big thing is the actual value once you’re at 20-22. That’s where I have this draft turning to second round grades, so teams may not be aggressive sans the ones with the ammo and/or coveting a specific guy. I just don’t think those going 22-25 are much different than some around 40-50.

 ~10 blue chips, 10ish more solid firsts, then a big chunk of 2nd round talent and 33 is right in the middle of it.