Lombardi on McAfee Show

[MHS831]

VERY interesting look at the behind-the-scenes look at draft.  This changed my perspective.  Gotta listen to what he says about WRs--makes me want to draft WR later.

 

[MHS831]

The depth chart tells you all you need to know (about what a team is going to do).

Basically says the players we think are first rounders don't matter--what player does the team think they can get the most out of--(inference:  upside and match for the system)

Noted that WRs are the toughest to evaluate--said the best WRs in the NFL are second and third day (or round) players.  Note that first round WRs hit 27% of the time. (Chart below). 

Based on our needs and the fact that we cannot afford to miss, drafting WRs early is dangerous.  It seems to me that Pearsall, Rice, McCaffery, and maybe even Dez Walker might be better risks--according to this logic.

I found this to be interesting:  (Makes me want to draft C at 33. 

[CRA]

1 minute ago, MHS831 said:

Based on our needs and the fact that we cannot afford to miss, drafting WRs early is dangerous.  

well, we know generally.....we are going to end up missing on most of the guys we draft in reality.  Draft history says that.  Ours certainly does.  That's why I like the WR double dip in a great WR draft class.  Increases your odds of hitting on something that eventually works out. 

and we don't have a first day pick.  as he said, day 2 and day 3 is often WR gold.  I still think top of round 2 is just a sweet spot for WR. 

I think those hit rates are skewed.  C has a good first round hit rate.....because you rarely see any C ever drafted in the first round because of  how the league values it.   So it's almost can't miss super studs twisting folks arms to have to take them. 

[MHS831]

3 minutes ago, CRA said:

well, we know generally.....we are going to end up missing on most of the guys we draft in reality.  Draft history says that.  Ours certainly does.  That's why I like the WR double dip in a great WR draft class.  Increases your odds of hitting on something that eventually works out. 

and we don't have a first day pick.  as he said, day 2 and day 3 is often WR gold.  I still think top of round 2 is just a sweet spot for WR. 

I think those hit rates are skewed.  C has a good first round hit rate.....because you rarely see any C ever drafted in the first round because of  how the league values it.   So it's almost can't miss super studs twisting folks arms to have to take them. 

Same page--I wonder (to his point) if Walker, Rice, and Pearsall don't outperform the first round bunch (excluding the three Amigo WRs Rome, Harrison, and Nabors).   I feel like they are going to draft a CB/LB early and we should double dip at WR--but what if you took Rice and McCaffery, for example, instead of Worthy and McCorley?  If we take Worthy and McCorley, we miss out on the LB/CBs.  If we take LB, OL, CB early and take advantage of the draft by understanding that rounds 3 and 4 have some guys who might be better fits into our system?  That is the Twist I got from this video. 

This is going to be very interesting. 

[Tr3ach]

34 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

The depth chart tells you all you need to know (about what a team is going to do).

Basically says the players we think are first rounders don't matter--what player does the team think they can get the most out of--(inference:  upside and match for the system)

Noted that WRs are the toughest to evaluate--said the best WRs in the NFL are second and third day (or round) players.  Note that first round WRs hit 27% of the time. (Chart below). 

Based on our needs and the fact that we cannot afford to miss, drafting WRs early is dangerous.  It seems to me that Pearsall, Rice, McCaffery, and maybe even Dez Walker might be better risks--according to this logic.

I found this to be interesting:  (Makes me want to draft C at 33. 

Ive seen that chart a lot of places but i dont really think it tells us anything without seeing the percentages for round 2 at least, if not more rounds.  I know the hardest posistion to hit in the 2nd round or later is edge rushers.  Almost all the good ones are drafted in the first.  2nd round and later edge rushers dont have a good track record at all.

Edited April 24 by Tr3ach

[CRA]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Same page--I wonder (to his point) if Walker, Rice, and Pearsall don't outperform the first round bunch (excluding the three Amigo WRs Rome, Harrison, and Nabors).   I feel like they are going to draft a CB/LB early and we should double dip at WR--but what if you took Rice and McCaffery, for example, instead of Worthy and McCorley?  If we take Worthy and McCorley, we miss out on the LB/CBs.  If we take LB, OL, CB early and take advantage of the draft by understanding that rounds 3 and 4 have some guys who might be better fits into our system?  That is the Twist I got from this video. 

This is going to be very interesting. 

yeah, all I know is occasionally I guess the first round pick right for us.   Outside of that, I might of guessed 2 out of hundred other picks. 

my surprise guess at this point, is Morgan shows his personal touch in this draft and valuing a position in way we didn't think of.  So my guess on that is a DT is going to pop up at a spot no one saw coming.   Everyone talking Edge, LB, and CB.  They always seem to surprise us somewhere. 

[XClown1986]

We badly need a draft to have more hits than misses. I'm hoping they have those players in mind and a few different plans in place to get them.

[MHS831]

After watching the 360 program on NFL Network (I think), I am emotionally drawn to drafting UNC's Walker.  Here is why:  He has the tools.  His critics complain about his route running.  After all he'd been through, I wonder if he ever really had a coach work on mechanics.  Canales wants the staff to be developmental.  Walker would appreciate being in Charlotte for his grandma--think that is a small deal?  Watch the video.  We may be the team best equipped to maximize his potential.  Not in the second round, but the third?  Add what Lomabardi said about the best WRs in the NFL not being from the first round--Walker could be a steal in the third.