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Albert Breer: Panthers could "hold auction" for #33 pick

TheSpecialJuan
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Panthero Mentor

Panthero

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6 hours ago, strato said:

Question from a person that is not great with stats: If the scouts suck, then isn’t it better to view a pick as an educated guess? And if that were true wouldn’t we have a better chance with more guesses? 

Statistics would say that's true but unfortunately it seems when teams try this method they still draft based off of older school scout attributes and it somewhat defeats it. I have no stats to back this up. 

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Khaki Lackey Mentor

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8 hours ago, strato said:

Question from a person that is not great with stats: If the scouts suck, then isn’t it better to view a pick as an educated guess? And if that were true wouldn’t we have a better chance with more guesses? 

We don't really know if our scouts suck. Reports suggest that our GMs have been ignoring them. Hell, we had a college coach calling the shots for a few years. One thing Fitterer said that was actually correct was that predictability of getting quality players dropped at a certain point. The higher the pick, the better the chances of getting a decent player.

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Tbe Grand Master

Tbe

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9 hours ago, strato said:

Question from a person that is not great with stats: If the scouts suck, then isn’t it better to view a pick as an educated guess? And if that were true wouldn’t we have a better chance with more guesses? 


No, the stats clearly show that the odds of getting a good player fall drastically as the draft goes on.

In short, your odds of getting a starter at the top of the 2nd round is much higher than finding one starter from three 3rd rounders.

It’s like this. If your kicker sucks, do you want to give him one try on the 10 yard line or 3 tries at the 50?

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strato Grand Master

strato

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4 hours ago, Tbe said:


No, the stats clearly show that the odds of getting a good player fall drastically as the draft goes on.

In short, your odds of getting a starter at the top of the 2nd round is much higher than finding one starter from three 3rd rounders.

It’s like this. If your kicker sucks, do you want to give him one try on the 10 yard line or 3 tries at the 50?

I might disagree with that, anecdotally at least. Or question it. We can name a lot of great players taken in the 3rd round. And in a deep draft as this supposedly is? With 3 chances? 

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DaveThePanther2008 Grand Master

DaveThePanther2008

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Either way you look at it a high value 1st round pick is going to fall in this draft especially if all 6 QBs go. 

I'd weight the trade based off what the future 1st would bring. If we're trading with KC, Buffalo or any playoff caliber team I probably wouldn't make the trade because we'd only move up a spot or two and have to wait a year. However, if NYG or Seattle or any other team that might wind up in the upper portion of the draft I'm going to listen. 

More importantly the trade would have to be a win for us. 

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amcoolio Mentor

amcoolio

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From Campbell:

" Some team sources said they think there could be more trade movement in this year’s draft compared to typical years. They shared they believe this movement could start in the middle of the first round, stretch into late in Round 1, and then continue throughout the second day of the 2024 NFL Draft. The reason for the expected fluidity is teams feeling there is a lack of talent on Day 3 of the draft thanks to the influence of NIL in college football and more players getting paid to stay in school. That has weakened the talent depth of the draft, leaving teams believing that third-day picks have less value. Some sources from playoff teams felt that there is a good chance that the players they would get on Day 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft would have a very hard time making their final 53-man roster, so rather than use the pick on a player who is likely to get cut, they could use the pick to move up in the early rounds. This year’s draft has the potential to be one with a lot of trades, starting on the opening night of the draft."

I've always been under the idea that 5-7th round picks are worthless and should be used to trade up. Especially for the Panthers UDFA's have the same or better impact than 5-7th round picks

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panthers55 Grand Master

panthers55

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The fact there are great starters picked in mid rounds every year belies that idea that we have to pick at 33 or risk getting a guy with lesser talent.  On the other hand if you don't have good scouting ability it doesn't matter where you draft including number 1 in the draft

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strato Grand Master

strato

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I think 5th in general is still valuable to a degree but the 6th and 7th?  A 6th is a throw in to even out a trade, don’t even talk to me about a 7th.

And yeah the scouting and decision making can make a 1st round pick into a total flyer. 

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Tbe Grand Master

Tbe

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2 hours ago, strato said:

I might disagree with that, anecdotally at least. Or question it. We can name a lot of great players taken in the 3rd round. And in a deep draft as this supposedly is? With 3 chances? 


Here are some numbers I found. Posted this a few months back.

2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into a solid NFL starter. It’s higher for the top of the round. From here, it dropped by 50% per round.

3rd round - about 16%.

4th round - about 8%.

If you do the math, selecting two 3rd rounders gives you a 29.44% chance of gaining ONE long term starter.

Thats less than the odds for a single high 2nd.

 

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travisura Grand Master

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4 minutes ago, Tbe said:


Here are some numbers I found. Posted this a few months back.

2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into a solid NFL starter. It’s higher for the top of the round. From here, it dropped by 50% per round.

3rd round - about 16%.

4th round - about 8%.

If you do the math, selecting two 3rd rounders gives you a 29.44% chance of gaining ONE long term starter.

Thats less than the odds for a single high 2nd.

 

1 quarter, 2 dimes, etc.

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