BH's Draft Primer & Mock

[Bear Hands]

I've got a book for y'all so I will go ahead and write in the first: TL;DR 

This is just my perspective, overall approach and best take at a mock (up to pick 39) given what I've seen, read, and heard around.  Based on my own player takes, intel, visits, who's trending, who's falling, and just my gut feeling with this draft.

After pick 39, I have targets that I like for us and have listed them out in no particular order.

BH's Panthers 2024 Draft Primer & Mock

Here we go...

OVERALL APPROACH/SUGGESTIONS:

I want one thing from this Front Office: Patience  

Let it come this year and get the best possible impact starters at 33 and 39.  Don’t hyper-focus on filling our vacancies, accept that there will be some remaining after the draft.  

Get the best talent possible that matches the type of players we want.  This is not about a specific position.  This is about the best, highest impact player we can find.

However, I get a sense priority is helping Bryce, so this could be offensive heavy with a DB and/or pass rush addition.  That's fine, but don't let the need outweigh the talent available.  

 

NOTABLE ISSUES/CONCERNS:

Center: Sure, I guess Corbett can start, Mays serve as backup, but there’s a long term need here.

All Receiver Spots: Johnson is the presumed X (and more) but he’s not a certainty long term. Also-I hesitate to throw a rookie outside if it’s a prospect after AD/Ladd. 

Thielen/Mingo have issues with age or waiting to break out.  We either need a guy that can create separation and play multiple spots (or) a potential X that can be eased in different ways via motion/crossers/etc.

RB: An all-around type who can become the new centerpiece - A pass-catching back seems a must at minimum for Canales.  

ILB: Shaq and Jewell aren’t a long term duo, don't think this is resolved.  

OLB: Clowney, Wonnum, DJJ, Barno…could use an upgrade long-term/a better rotational pass rusher

CB: Horn/Jackson/Hill/Bootle is serviceable but could see us going CB earlier than expected

OL Depth: This never hurts

Developmental QB: A guy for QB3/PS, not a priority, but could be a R7 or UDFA snag

 

OVERALL DRAFT NOTES:

• It is a nice blue chipper top-15, then there’s a BIG tier shift.  But that next tier holds in grade until late Round 2, Early 3rd.  It is a great draft in that range.
• The top IOL talent is going to be similar/if not more coveted than the WR talent in R1
• The IDL talent will be way more sought after than is being let on (Newton, Murphy, etc.)
• Mr. 4.21 falls a bit, speed be damned 
• This class is DEEP at receiver and I foresee impact options in the mid-rounds
• Deep class at IOL, WR, and DB.  Sneaky decent at RB, sneaky good at DB.
• There will be long term IOL starters in the 3rd-4th round
• I’m projecting 3-4 trades in the 1st round
• Nix is a Round 2 guy.  Penix, late 1st (still like him).  I just don’t see them in the top-15.

 

MOCK DRAFT:

ROUND 1

1 - CHI - Caleb Williams QB USC

Not much to say.  This is happening barring Caleb doing something career-ending. 

 

2 - WAS - Jayden Daniels QB LSU

I believe they prefer Daniels at the end of the day.  He flashed some serious pocket potential while being a high-end playmaker with his legs.  If he hits, it will be above and beyond, so just roll the dice.  A new era in DC begins.

 

3 - NE - JJ McCarthy QB Michigan

This is a popular trade down spot, but I think it’s QB 1,2,3, with a bit of a surprise.  The Pats have a lot of needs at the start of their rebuild, but if a franchise QB presents himself, you grab him.  I just think they go with another Michigan product instead of Maye.  This is a gut feeling here.

 

4 - AZ - Marvin Harrison Jr WR OSU

Another popular trade down spot, but nope.  I’m not biting that Arizona moves down with MH available.  They just traded back last year.  Now, in need of weapons, they land themselves a TOP weapon, arguably the best player in the draft.  No need to get cute.  

 

*5 - MIN (from LAC) - Drake Maye QB UNC

TRADE #1.  The Giants and Vikings are clearly vying for a QB and this Chargers pick is the one I see being the target spot they both call about.  For the Chargers, their need to give Herbert a legit weapon is serious, but on the other side, people are questioning if Harbaugh goes skill guys high.  I just think MIN makes a major offer too good to pass up.

So, MIN is up–O’Connell & Jefferson get their guy.  This would be an incredible situation for Maye, and for a team approaching a make or break season with their staff.  LAC lands another 1st with some big spots to fill.

 

6 - NYG - Malik Nabers WR LSU

With their top QB targets gone, the Giants could trade.  They also have OL needs.  And QB needs...and a few others.  So, I could definitely see NY moving around. Thing is, Nabers is a player that’s just too good to pass on.  Take him and elevate the offense entirely, 

 

7 - TEN - Joe Alt LT Notre Dame 

TEN is a weird team.  HC-Callahan, QB-Levis, RB-Pollard/Spears, WR-Hopkins/Ridley.  I guess that’s what they’re rolling with after being big FA spenders. Alt has been an easy pick in mocks, but it’s for a reason.  Would be a huge get and they see if Levis has “it” in 2024.

 

*8 - IND (from ATL) - Rome Odunze WR WASH

TRADE #2.  I see a team getting aggressive if Rome is available here.  Could also be LAC with a trade back up for a top WR.  The Colts may seem set with Pittman/Pierce/Downs but I still see a big void for a playmaker there.  Big-move time for Indy to help out AR, they give ATL an offer too good to pass up. 

 

9 - CHI - Dallas Turner Alabama DE/ED

Poles stated their intentions to land one of the draft’s blue chip players so I don’t see them moving down.  Turner is the cleanest of the pass rush candidates.  I don’t have a doubt he can fit Eberflus’ defense and there have been plenty of hints in Chi-town that this is the guy they’re targeting.    

 

10 - NYJ - Taliese Fuaga OT/G Oregon State

They’ve now got Mike Williams and Tyron Smith in house.   Defensively, the front-7 is looking strong with Reddick and QW.  On Offense, Rodgers has the vets he likes…but this is also a team going all in.  They need to protect Aaron at all costs and Smith & Moses don’t make me THAT comfortable.  Also, just looking at the talent, he’s a great prospect at 10.  Can play G and T, high ceiling, high floor.    

 

*11 - LAC (from MIN) - JC Latham OT/G Alabama

The Chargers have shown strong interest in Latham and he fits the Roman offense quite well.  Fans would be super ticked to not get a WR high, but it could very well happen.   

 

12 - DEN - Brock Bowers TE UGA 

I’m not quite sure what the Broncos have in mind this offseason other than their rumored uniform change.  I’m also unsure about Nix or Penix going this high.  Payton has high standards and I don’t see them reaching.  Brugler reported they’re a dark horse team for Bowers, and honestly, a top TE kind of makes sense for Payton’s offense.  They need some semblance of offense if they’re not getting a top QB.  Great cornerstone piece, don’t see Bowers going much lower. 

 

13 - LVR - Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo 

The Raiders are in a spot where the fanbase is getting pretty antsy for an answer at QB.  However, this new regime has Telesco and Antonio Pierce at the helm.  Telesco loves getting sure things (new MO for the Raiders), and Pierce is all defense.  This selection gives them a stout CB1 across from Jack Jones.  Pair that with the DL they’re growing with Crosby, Wilkins, Tyree & Koonce, they could go from good to great on D.   

 

14 - NO - Troy Fautanu OT/G Washington

Their defense is in decent shape but if they want that offense to get more consistent, they would be wise to take advantage of the upper tier in this OL class.  Especially with the Ryan Ramczyk news, Fautanu is an NFL LT.   Could be a good fit here.

 

15 - ATL (from IND) - Jared Verse DE/ED FSU 

ATL trades down to a spot where they can still land a much needed pass rusher in this class.  Verse stays in the Southeast.

 

16 - SEA - Byron Murphy II DT Texas 

Murphy is a stout defender and can get at the QB.  He’s one of “my guys” and think teams will covet him come draft time.  His quickness and movement is next level.  Also reportedly a super high football IQ & film rat type. 

Not an apparent top need in SEA but something that makes a lot of sense. Get a top DL target that they’ve reportedly been eyeing.

Love love love the fit.  

 

17 - JAX - Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama

A bit of a surprise he goes before Arnold but this is more due to what I think Baalke will drum up.  Baalke is also not a WR guy – they seem to be eyeing the DB class pretty closely, Kool-Aid in particular.  Seems high, but it’s a gut feeling with Ballke being weird.   

 

18 - CIN - Olu Fashanu OT Penn State  

This could be a wise direction with Burrow’s history.  Sure, Trent Brown is signed and will be their LT, but Fashanu has some positional flexibility and this would make a lot of sense value wise (and for the future)  

 

19 - LAR - Laiaitu Latu OLB/DE UCLA

 This would be a pretty great scenario for LAR.   Would really help shore up that front-7. 

 

20 - PIT - Amarius Mims OT UGA 

I was thinking WR, but I see Pittsburgh being patient considering the value of those available and depth of the class.  This is a super valuable selection.   Excellent fit here since Dan Moore is just a backup (as he should be) and Broderick Jones can go to LT.  Huge upside pick, big boy to plug in at RT.  Tomlin & Khan went to his pro-day and have shown interest.  Steelers’ MO is always traveling to meet their 1st round selections.   

 

21 - MIA - Graham Barton C/G/T Duke

They have a handful of needs after a cap-casualty filled offseason.  Priority should be stabilizing that offensive line.  Would be a strong pick here to shore things up in front of Tua.  Barton is going to go higher than you think, and he happens to fit McDaniel’s offense super well.  I can definitely see him gone before the commonly hyped Powers-Johnson.

 

22 - PHI - Terrion Arnold Alabama CB

Philly is a popular spot for edge rushers and DBs…and I’m not really changing that pattern if Arnold is available here.  He would be a really good fit in that defense.  

 

23 - LAC - Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU

This would be quite the scenario for LAC.  Trade down, take one of the most coveted OLs tailored for their system, and then land Brian Thomas Jr.  This “fall” is simply because of the talent in the top-15ish, but is still a huge get.  He has excellent potential and this is an easy pairing.  Guys like Latu, Murphy, Fautanu, are legit talents at coveted positions.  Don’t think this type of range is out of reach for Thomas.

 

24 - DAL - Jackson Powers-Johnson C Oregon 

Dallas is moving into a semi-rebuild situation.  Needs include an LT, C, DB, WR2, LB, quite a few.  But the Jones family has already hinted at OL being a huge draft target.  Guyton could be good here, but I’m leaning JP-J at center.

 

25 - GB - Darius Robinson ED/DL Missouri

The Packers are a team with particular standards at DL, OL and DB where you can take certain guys off their list.  They also draft young.  I’m unsure if a lifelong Lions fans is knocked off, but Darius Robinson would still be a really solid fit on defensive for them.  Watch out - he could go higher.  

 

*26 - LVR (from TB) - Michael Penix Jr. QB Washington

TRADE #3.  With the top IOLs going off the board, I see a field of DBs available that fit TB (Wiggins, DeJean), but this could be a spot where TB fields calls.  It’s a good moment for the Raiders or Broncos to make the jump and grab the guy they want at QB.  

 

27 - AZ - Chop Robinson EDGE Penn State 

Pass rusher is a big need and I find it hard to see Chop slip much further after his testing this offseason.  The upside is tantalizing and the Cards need a better defensive identity after skipping on WA Jr last year.  Reminds me of some of the guys Gannon had in Philly.

 

28 - BUF - Ladd McConkey WR UGA

Allen needs a guy to throw to that can do it all.  AD Mitchell has been a popular choice for them but McConkey could add a dynamic weapon that Josh simply hasn’t had yet.  Add him with Kincaid and Cook, that offense could start rolling in an effective and different way.  

 

29 - DET - Johnny Newton DT Illinois

Detroit’s biggest problem, in their biggest moments, was taking over the LOS in big games.  This is the type of dude that can help them get over this hurdle.  So, the Packers take the Lions fan, the Lions take a Bears fan.  Definitely a Campbell guy and would make Hutch’s job much easier.

 

30 - BAL - Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma

Fresh off a big year, the league MVP now has Derrick Henry in house.  I think it would be smart to give them a boost up front.  This happens to fill a moderate need, but more importantly, it’s just smart for a team gunning for a SB.  They lost some in the front-7 and could use a defender, but they have more picks for that.  

 

31 - SF - Cooper DeJean DB Iowa 

I had thought Jordan Morgan here for a bit, but DeJean offers a lot for the 49ers.  He really fits the blend of athleticism and high football IQ that the 49ers love on defense.  Would fit really well communicating with Warner pre-snap.

 

32 - KC - Adonai Mitchell WR Texas

To our dismay, Mitchell goes a pick before ours to the SB champs.  This would be a nice complimentary piece to Rice and Hollywood.  Helps give Mahomes one of the more diverse groups he’s had since he had Hill.  

 

ROUND 2 

33 - CAR - Zach Frazier G/C West Virginia 6’3 316

If this is how it falls, I’m not running to the podium for any offensive skill players -- it allows top talent to become available.

I love everything I’ve been hearing and reading about Frazier.  I’m not going to act like I’m some film guru with IOLs but he has some brute force and doesn’t get knocked back much.  And reading about his toughness and leadership is awesome – I would recommend searching for articles on him.  Hefty experience in both gap and zone, he’s ready to slot right into a team’s starting center position.  A ton of snaps (2,400+ center snaps in 3 years), consistent force.  Here you go, starting C.  Excellent value and BPA. 

Other Considerations (value wise): Jordan Morgan OT/G Arizona, Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M, Marshawn Kneeland EDGE WM, Junior Colson ILB Michigan

 

34 - NE - Jordan Morgan OT/G Arizona

They land another one of the promising OLs to help keep McCarthy upright.  Can see Morgan in the first but it was tough to fit him in.

 

35 - AZ - Kingsley Suamataia OG/T BYU

Cards land EDGE, DB, and a WR.  Time to focus on protecting their QB who’s finally returning to 100% this year.  They have pieces, but they need more depth and a potential starter.

 

36 - WAS - Ricky Pearsall WR Florida (form. AZ State)

Sun Devils are reunited in DC.  Heck, don’t look past them trading #40 and more for Aiyuk to bring the whole squad back together.  Best catch rate in the draft +10-yards, excellent route runner, 60/40 slot/flanker guy in college.  The type of safety valve WAS needs for their high upside rookie QB in Daniels. 

 

37 - LAC - Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M

High defensive upside for a coach that likes his aggressive, athletic LBs.  Could be a strong fit in LA.

 

38 - TEN - Kris Jenkins Jr. Michigan DT

Titans could use some flavor on defense and I think Jenkins is going to end up drafted much higher than presumed.  Teams covet the fierce DL warriors at the end of the day and Jenkins has it in his blood.

 

39 - CAR - Marshawn Kneeland EDGE Western Michigan 6’3 267

Kneeland just bullies OTs.  Makes them look silly.  Has NFL-ready strength, a DIRTY bull rush, can play in the dirt, standing, and is excellent against the run.  He just has a lot of traits that teams look for.  He’s also just very fitting for a rotation like ours and he can do quite a lot.  Once he’s off the board, the EDGE’s become a bit sparse or more speed-rush/one dimensional.  (Do love Ellis though).  We met with him, and I get a sense he’s a guy Morgan quite likes. 

Just a tough, powerful dawg here.  Could be a big piece for a long time.  Reminds me of Tuli last year who I loved for us (damn you Fitt)

Alternate considerations: Junior Colson ILB Michigan, Nate Wiggins CB Clemson, Braden Fiske DT FSU, Xavier Legette WR South Carolina, Keon Coleman WR FSU, Ja'Lynn Polk WR Wash

 

–

 

REMAINING DRAFT TARGETS:

LATE-2ND to EARLY 3RD:

Trey Benson RB FSU 6’0 220

He is easily my favorite RB in the draft.  He’s a home run hitter, gap and zone experience as a runner, a quick cutter, plays with balance and toughness.  Just really like the fit as an all-around guy to come in and get the bulk carries.  Instantly changes our offense in a big way.   

 

Ja’Lynn Polk WR Washington 6'1 203

Polk may not flash speed wise, but his ability to catch through contact and consistently get open is why I’m a fan.  Experience at the X, Z and slot.  Can get all over the place and when he had a game or so banged up, the Washington offense looked different.  I get a sense he’s really liked by teams.  

 

Xavier Legette WR South Carolina 6’1 221

He plays like he’s 6’4 and has the jets to beat man.  It makes sense why so many are drawn to the kid - well, that and being a Carolina boy.  However, his late blooming, combined with his lack of short area skills are what get me a bit.  He’s not going to get open quickly against base zone concepts, but he will bully guys for the ball and make plays.  

You either need to get him a running start or get him isolated in man to create opportunities.  The team is obviously very interested and I can’t deny the potential.  Not the biggest fan but he could be really good.  I could see him in the 2nd if they like him THAT much, top of the 3rd, no problem at all.      

 

Malik Washington WR Virginia 5’8.5 191

I like this kid a lot.  He’s a hair under 5’9 but I gotta say, his catch radius and the way he plays is larger than how it reads. 

I just love how absolutely tough he runs.  His YAC skills, experience as a volume catcher, it’s just a lot to like.  He will be a really good asset for any offense, and especially Bryce.  I just love when you can get a guy that WAS his team’s offense.  I get the same vibes that I did with Dell last year around Malik.  Led CFS in multiple categories, has the experience and whole feel for the position.  

At minimum, instant impact slot machine.  Maximum, he could get some snaps outside depending on the team we’re facing and just blow up year 1.      

 

Max Melton CB Rutgers 6'0 187

Melton has been flying under the radar a tad but I think we’re eyeing DBs and he could be one of them.  Some great quickness and ability to keep up with NFL WRs.  Ballhawk, put up good numbers, very instinctive. 

 

Jonah Ellis EDGE Utah & Bralen Trice EDGE Washington

A double EDGE shoutout.  For Trice - I was a fan going into this past season but his game just isn’t consistent enough against the run to take him super high.  HOWEVER, this kid, similar to Ellis, just gets after the QB and both are exciting pass rushers.  Given we have a rotation with Clowney, Wonnum, and maybe DJJ, these guys could come in and compete for snaps against Barno.  They have the ceiling to turn into more starting caliber types sooner than later.   

 

LATE 3RD TO 4TH

Javon Baker WR UCF 6’1 202

Another guy with a great catch radius and attitude after the catch.  

Can play multiple spots so fits in a few different ways.  Have even seen Dionte Johnson comps–Not to mention, spent 2 years with Bryce Young so there could be some chemistry there even if they didn’t have a ton of statistical production together (he was behind quite the WRs at Bama in 2020) 

Honestly, if he and Bryce are tight, this could be a really strong prospect for us.  Love his X-potential.    

 

Marshawn Lloyd RB USC 5’9 220 4.46 & Jaylen Wright RB Tennessee

Lloyd is the next RB that I think could work really well for Bryce.  Can catch, love his sudden change in direction combined with his acceleration at that size.  Brings a lot to the table and would compete with Hubbard for the top snap count pretty quickly.  Good blend of physicality and receiving ability.    

Wright is also right there with him, could go higher.  Some great all-around ability, tough runner, big play ability, home run threat.  He's like a jacked Kamara.   

 

Ben Sinnott TE Kansas State 6’4 240

I think Sinnott is the TE to land from this class after Brock.  If he’s floating around in the 4th, I’d love to see us be aggressive and get him.  Just don’t lose capital, get a package together that makes sense. 

Great production, was his team’s leading receiver (not the best offense), but like with Malik, I love when it’s a guy with the bulk volume experience for his offense.  That’s a person who has already faced and handled a diverse set of players, and has likely matched up more along the way against NFL talent.

 

Dru Philips CB Kentucky

This is a DB prospect not to sleep on.  Physical, athletic, strong, with speed…willing to go toe-to-toe with bigger WRs even at his height just under 5’11. Needs to shore up some of his tackling skills, but that’s why guys end up in the 3rd-4th.  Strong potential.   

 

SLEEPERS/LATER ON

Cornelius Johnson WR Michigan 6’3 212 4.44

He’s a guy who has grown on me during the process and watching McCarthy and Wilson.  He plays with attitude against DBs, has a great speed + size combo, and NFL ready tools.  He would be a strong developmental type to have behind Dionte and who knows, maybe he could have an impact early.  

 

Anthony Gould WR Oregon State & Jacob Cowing WR Arizona 5’8 170

These dudes are burners.  Size may bring both down draft boards but they get vertical and are fun to watch.  Both started 3 years+ and could be rather effective sooner than later.  

If we go with a bigger guy early, I wouldn’t look past adding either Gould or Cowing late rounds.  Just take a flyer on one of these types. 

 

 

--
Okay, well that's it for now, may add more later.  Cheers.





 

[DaveThePanther2008]

@Bear Hands

Nice Job.

As much as I agree with you, I think if we keep 33 it is going to be a WR.  One of the good WRs are going to fall to #33 and we need to take him.   

I would love to see a center with the 39th pick.  

I saw another mock draft that had us taking Kneeland and God knows we could still use and upgrade at EDGE.

 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Impressive post 

[Bear Hands]

4 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

@Bear Hands

Nice Job.

As much as I agree with you, I think if we keep 33 it is going to be a WR.  One of the good WRs are going to fall to #33 and we need to take him.   

I would love to see a center with the 39th pick.  

I saw another mock draft that had us taking Kneeland and God knows we could still use and upgrade at EDGE.

 

I guess it depends on where we view the tier shift.

For me, after AD and McConkey, I have a lot of guys like Frazier, Colson, Kneeland, Fiske stacked a bit higher than Coleman, Pearsall, Legette, Wilson, etc. 

But you're right, it's hard not to see us address it at 33 or 39.  If the draft falls this way, it may lead into a trade package scenario using 65 & one of our 5ths for a late 2nd and 6th.  

[amcoolio]

Frazier is my draft darling. 10 year starter from day 1 and can anchor the line. We need him so bad that I'm sure we'll pass on him twice

[Bear Hands]

Some more musings-

WRs:

I loved watching Troy Franklin throughout the season.  I'm a big fan, but he does concern me a tad with his ability to play through contact and to make contested balls at the NFL level.  He's got big play ability and is a better route-runner than let on, but I could see a slight slip for him.  

Brenden Rice is a real possibility for us as well.  He's got the experience playing outside in a big offense, for the top QB in this draft.  They had some OL issues this past year and he had to learn to develop a bit more skills and learn to gain separation a bit better.  He's also one of the best guys at never quitting until the whistle blows at WR this year.

IDL:

Both LSU kids are legit.  Wingo and Smith - watch out for how high they go.  The media has been a bit quiet with this DT class but I think it has a lot of quality prospects.

Other IOLs I like for us:

Sedrick Van-Pran, Tanor Bortoloni, Beaux Limmer, Zak Zinter

Developmental QBs of choice:

Austin Reed & Jordan Travis

Travis is a dual-threat, four year starter with a strong arm.  Reed is a fiery guy - big competitor with a good enough arm.  Not great, but in that above-average range - note: he took over for Zappe - is a bit more of an athlete than him with a better arm (power+accuracy wise).  

Overall:

My biggest draft crushes boil down to Trey Benson RB, Malik Washington WR & Ben Sinnott TE

[Martin]

Great write up, I would be with be super happy with your picks at 33 and 39.

[MHS831]

I am really looking forward to this draft--I thought, FU FItterer, but there is still some drama.  Gonna be fun. 

[Adb6368]

Admittedly I know nothing about kneeland but if Nate Wiggins is still on the board with our second pick that would be hard to pass up 

 

disclaimer: I have absolutely no connection to Clemson and am not saying this as a homer pick 

[Bear Hands]

11 minutes ago, Adb6368 said:

Admittedly I know nothing about kneeland but if Nate Wiggins is still on the board with our second pick that would be hard to pass up 

 

disclaimer: I have absolutely no connection to Clemson and am not saying this as a homer pick 

He’s a tough one for me. I could honestly see him as high as the teens and as low as the 40s. 

Weight and injuries are the concerns, but if he clears that hurdle for teams, I can see how he’s viewed as the CB2. He’s damn good but he’s a love/hate type personality too. 

[Prowler2k18]

7 hours ago, Bear Hands said:

I've got a book for y'all so I will go ahead and write in the first: TL;DR 

This is just my perspective, overall approach and best take at a mock (up to pick 39) given what I've seen, read, and heard around.  Based on my own player takes, intel, visits, who's trending, who's falling, and just my gut feeling with this draft.

After pick 39, I have targets that I like for us and have listed them out in no particular order.

BH's Panthers 2024 Draft Primer & Mock

Here we go...

OVERALL APPROACH/SUGGESTIONS:

I want one thing from this Front Office: Patience  

Let it come this year and get the best possible impact starters at 33 and 39.  Don’t hyper-focus on filling our vacancies, accept that there will be some remaining after the draft.  

Get the best talent possible that matches the type of players we want.  This is not about a specific position.  This is about the best, highest impact player we can find.

However, I get a sense priority is helping Bryce, so this could be offensive heavy with a DB and/or pass rush addition.  That's fine, but don't let the need outweigh the talent available.  

 

NOTABLE ISSUES/CONCERNS:

Center: Sure, I guess Corbett can start, Mays serve as backup, but there’s a long term need here.

All Receiver Spots: Johnson is the presumed X (and more) but he’s not a certainty long term. Also-I hesitate to throw a rookie outside if it’s a prospect after AD/Ladd. 

Thielen/Mingo have issues with age or waiting to break out.  We either need a guy that can create separation and play multiple spots (or) a potential X that can be eased in different ways via motion/crossers/etc.

RB: An all-around type who can become the new centerpiece - A pass-catching back seems a must at minimum for Canales.  

ILB: Shaq and Jewell aren’t a long term duo, don't think this is resolved.  

OLB: Clowney, Wonnum, DJJ, Barno…could use an upgrade long-term/a better rotational pass rusher

CB: Horn/Jackson/Hill/Bootle is serviceable but could see us going CB earlier than expected

OL Depth: This never hurts

Developmental QB: A guy for QB3/PS, not a priority, but could be a R7 or UDFA snag

 

OVERALL DRAFT NOTES:

• It is a nice blue chipper top-15, then there’s a BIG tier shift.  But that next tier holds in grade until late Round 2, Early 3rd.  It is a great draft in that range.
• The top IOL talent is going to be similar/if not more coveted than the WR talent in R1
• The IDL talent will be way more sought after than is being let on (Newton, Murphy, etc.)
• Mr. 4.21 falls a bit, speed be damned 
• This class is DEEP at receiver and I foresee impact options in the mid-rounds
• Deep class at IOL, WR, and DB.  Sneaky decent at RB, sneaky good at DB.
• There will be long term IOL starters in the 3rd-4th round
• I’m projecting 3-4 trades in the 1st round
• Nix is a Round 2 guy.  Penix, late 1st (still like him).  I just don’t see them in the top-15.

 

MOCK DRAFT:

ROUND 1

1 - CHI - Caleb Williams QB USC

Not much to say.  This is happening barring Caleb doing something career-ending. 

 

2 - WAS - Jayden Daniels QB LSU

I believe they prefer Daniels at the end of the day.  He flashed some serious pocket potential while being a high-end playmaker with his legs.  If he hits, it will be above and beyond, so just roll the dice.  A new era in DC begins.

 

3 - NE - JJ McCarthy QB Michigan

This is a popular trade down spot, but I think it’s QB 1,2,3, with a bit of a surprise.  The Pats have a lot of needs at the start of their rebuild, but if a franchise QB presents himself, you grab him.  I just think they go with another Michigan product instead of Maye.  This is a gut feeling here.

 

4 - AZ - Marvin Harrison Jr WR OSU

Another popular trade down spot, but nope.  I’m not biting that Arizona moves down with MH available.  They just traded back last year.  Now, in need of weapons, they land themselves a TOP weapon, arguably the best player in the draft.  No need to get cute.  

 

*5 - MIN (from LAC) - Drake Maye QB UNC

TRADE #1.  The Giants and Vikings are clearly vying for a QB and this Chargers pick is the one I see being the target spot they both call about.  For the Chargers, their need to give Herbert a legit weapon is serious, but on the other side, people are questioning if Harbaugh goes skill guys high.  I just think MIN makes a major offer too good to pass up.

So, MIN is up–O’Connell & Jefferson get their guy.  This would be an incredible situation for Maye, and for a team approaching a make or break season with their staff.  LAC lands another 1st with some big spots to fill.

 

6 - NYG - Malik Nabers WR LSU

With their top QB targets gone, the Giants could trade.  They also have OL needs.  And QB needs...and a few others.  So, I could definitely see NY moving around. Thing is, Nabers is a player that’s just too good to pass on.  Take him and elevate the offense entirely, 

 

7 - TEN - Joe Alt LT Notre Dame 

TEN is a weird team.  HC-Callahan, QB-Levis, RB-Pollard/Spears, WR-Hopkins/Ridley.  I guess that’s what they’re rolling with after being big FA spenders. Alt has been an easy pick in mocks, but it’s for a reason.  Would be a huge get and they see if Levis has “it” in 2024.

 

*8 - IND (from ATL) - Rome Odunze WR WASH

TRADE #2.  I see a team getting aggressive if Rome is available here.  Could also be LAC with a trade back up for a top WR.  The Colts may seem set with Pittman/Pierce/Downs but I still see a big void for a playmaker there.  Big-move time for Indy to help out AR, they give ATL an offer too good to pass up. 

 

9 - CHI - Dallas Turner Alabama DE/ED

Poles stated their intentions to land one of the draft’s blue chip players so I don’t see them moving down.  Turner is the cleanest of the pass rush candidates.  I don’t have a doubt he can fit Eberflus’ defense and there have been plenty of hints in Chi-town that this is the guy they’re targeting.    

 

10 - NYJ - Taliese Fuaga OT/G Oregon State

They’ve now got Mike Williams and Tyron Smith in house.   Defensively, the front-7 is looking strong with Reddick and QW.  On Offense, Rodgers has the vets he likes…but this is also a team going all in.  They need to protect Aaron at all costs and Smith & Moses don’t make me THAT comfortable.  Also, just looking at the talent, he’s a great prospect at 10.  Can play G and T, high ceiling, high floor.    

 

*11 - LAC (from MIN) - JC Latham OT/G Alabama

The Chargers have shown strong interest in Latham and he fits the Roman offense quite well.  Fans would be super ticked to not get a WR high, but it could very well happen.   

 

12 - DEN - Brock Bowers TE UGA 

I’m not quite sure what the Broncos have in mind this offseason other than their rumored uniform change.  I’m also unsure about Nix or Penix going this high.  Payton has high standards and I don’t see them reaching.  Brugler reported they’re a dark horse team for Bowers, and honestly, a top TE kind of makes sense for Payton’s offense.  They need some semblance of offense if they’re not getting a top QB.  Great cornerstone piece, don’t see Bowers going much lower. 

 

13 - LVR - Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo 

The Raiders are in a spot where the fanbase is getting pretty antsy for an answer at QB.  However, this new regime has Telesco and Antonio Pierce at the helm.  Telesco loves getting sure things (new MO for the Raiders), and Pierce is all defense.  This selection gives them a stout CB1 across from Jack Jones.  Pair that with the DL they’re growing with Crosby, Wilkins, Tyree & Koonce, they could go from good to great on D.   

 

14 - NO - Troy Fautanu OT/G Washington

Their defense is in decent shape but if they want that offense to get more consistent, they would be wise to take advantage of the upper tier in this OL class.  Especially with the Ryan Ramczyk news, Fautanu is an NFL LT.   Could be a good fit here.

 

15 - ATL (from IND) - Jared Verse DE/ED FSU 

ATL trades down to a spot where they can still land a much needed pass rusher in this class.  Verse stays in the Southeast.

 

16 - SEA - Byron Murphy II DT Texas 

Murphy is a stout defender and can get at the QB.  He’s one of “my guys” and think teams will covet him come draft time.  His quickness and movement is next level.  Also reportedly a super high football IQ & film rat type. 

Not an apparent top need in SEA but something that makes a lot of sense. Get a top DL target that they’ve reportedly been eyeing.

Love love love the fit.  

 

17 - JAX - Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama

A bit of a surprise he goes before Arnold but this is more due to what I think Baalke will drum up.  Baalke is also not a WR guy – they seem to be eyeing the DB class pretty closely, Kool-Aid in particular.  Seems high, but it’s a gut feeling with Ballke being weird.   

 

18 - CIN - Olu Fashanu OT Penn State  

This could be a wise direction with Burrow’s history.  Sure, Trent Brown is signed and will be their LT, but Fashanu has some positional flexibility and this would make a lot of sense value wise (and for the future)  

 

19 - LAR - Laiaitu Latu OLB/DE UCLA

 This would be a pretty great scenario for LAR.   Would really help shore up that front-7. 

 

20 - PIT - Amarius Mims OT UGA 

I was thinking WR, but I see Pittsburgh being patient considering the value of those available and depth of the class.  This is a super valuable selection.   Excellent fit here since Dan Moore is just a backup (as he should be) and Broderick Jones can go to LT.  Huge upside pick, big boy to plug in at RT.  Tomlin & Khan went to his pro-day and have shown interest.  Steelers’ MO is always traveling to meet their 1st round selections.   

 

21 - MIA - Graham Barton C/G/T Duke

They have a handful of needs after a cap-casualty filled offseason.  Priority should be stabilizing that offensive line.  Would be a strong pick here to shore things up in front of Tua.  Barton is going to go higher than you think, and he happens to fit McDaniel’s offense super well.  I can definitely see him gone before the commonly hyped Powers-Johnson.

 

22 - PHI - Terrion Arnold Alabama CB

Philly is a popular spot for edge rushers and DBs…and I’m not really changing that pattern if Arnold is available here.  He would be a really good fit in that defense.  

 

23 - LAC - Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU

This would be quite the scenario for LAC.  Trade down, take one of the most coveted OLs tailored for their system, and then land Brian Thomas Jr.  This “fall” is simply because of the talent in the top-15ish, but is still a huge get.  He has excellent potential and this is an easy pairing.  Guys like Latu, Murphy, Fautanu, are legit talents at coveted positions.  Don’t think this type of range is out of reach for Thomas.

 

24 - DAL - Jackson Powers-Johnson C Oregon 

Dallas is moving into a semi-rebuild situation.  Needs include an LT, C, DB, WR2, LB, quite a few.  But the Jones family has already hinted at OL being a huge draft target.  Guyton could be good here, but I’m leaning JP-J at center.

 

25 - GB - Darius Robinson ED/DL Missouri

The Packers are a team with particular standards at DL, OL and DB where you can take certain guys off their list.  They also draft young.  I’m unsure if a lifelong Lions fans is knocked off, but Darius Robinson would still be a really solid fit on defensive for them.  Watch out - he could go higher.  

 

*26 - LVR (from TB) - Michael Penix Jr. QB Washington

TRADE #3.  With the top IOLs going off the board, I see a field of DBs available that fit TB (Wiggins, DeJean), but this could be a spot where TB fields calls.  It’s a good moment for the Raiders or Broncos to make the jump and grab the guy they want at QB.  

 

27 - AZ - Chop Robinson EDGE Penn State 

Pass rusher is a big need and I find it hard to see Chop slip much further after his testing this offseason.  The upside is tantalizing and the Cards need a better defensive identity after skipping on WA Jr last year.  Reminds me of some of the guys Gannon had in Philly.

 

28 - BUF - Ladd McConkey WR UGA

Allen needs a guy to throw to that can do it all.  AD Mitchell has been a popular choice for them but McConkey could add a dynamic weapon that Josh simply hasn’t had yet.  Add him with Kincaid and Cook, that offense could start rolling in an effective and different way.  

 

29 - DET - Johnny Newton DT Illinois

Detroit’s biggest problem, in their biggest moments, was taking over the LOS in big games.  This is the type of dude that can help them get over this hurdle.  So, the Packers take the Lions fan, the Lions take a Bears fan.  Definitely a Campbell guy and would make Hutch’s job much easier.

 

30 - BAL - Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma

Fresh off a big year, the league MVP now has Derrick Henry in house.  I think it would be smart to give them a boost up front.  This happens to fill a moderate need, but more importantly, it’s just smart for a team gunning for a SB.  They lost some in the front-7 and could use a defender, but they have more picks for that.  

 

31 - SF - Cooper DeJean DB Iowa 

I had thought Jordan Morgan here for a bit, but DeJean offers a lot for the 49ers.  He really fits the blend of athleticism and high football IQ that the 49ers love on defense.  Would fit really well communicating with Warner pre-snap.

 

32 - KC - Adonai Mitchell WR Texas

To our dismay, Mitchell goes a pick before ours to the SB champs.  This would be a nice complimentary piece to Rice and Hollywood.  Helps give Mahomes one of the more diverse groups he’s had since he had Hill.  

 

ROUND 2 

33 - CAR - Zach Frazier G/C West Virginia 6’3 316

If this is how it falls, I’m not running to the podium for any offensive skill players -- it allows top talent to become available.

I love everything I’ve been hearing and reading about Frazier.  I’m not going to act like I’m some film guru with IOLs but he has some brute force and doesn’t get knocked back much.  And reading about his toughness and leadership is awesome – I would recommend searching for articles on him.  Hefty experience in both gap and zone, he’s ready to slot right into a team’s starting center position.  A ton of snaps (2,400+ center snaps in 3 years), consistent force.  Here you go, starting C.  Excellent value and BPA. 

Other Considerations (value wise): Jordan Morgan OT/G Arizona, Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M, Marshawn Kneeland EDGE WM, Junior Colson ILB Michigan

 

34 - NE - Jordan Morgan OT/G Arizona

They land another one of the promising OLs to help keep McCarthy upright.  Can see Morgan in the first but it was tough to fit him in.

 

35 - AZ - Kingsley Suamataia OG/T BYU

Cards land EDGE, DB, and a WR.  Time to focus on protecting their QB who’s finally returning to 100% this year.  They have pieces, but they need more depth and a potential starter.

 

36 - WAS - Ricky Pearsall WR Florida (form. AZ State)

Sun Devils are reunited in DC.  Heck, don’t look past them trading #40 and more for Aiyuk to bring the whole squad back together.  Best catch rate in the draft +10-yards, excellent route runner, 60/40 slot/flanker guy in college.  The type of safety valve WAS needs for their high upside rookie QB in Daniels. 

 

37 - LAC - Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M

High defensive upside for a coach that likes his aggressive, athletic LBs.  Could be a strong fit in LA.

 

38 - TEN - Kris Jenkins Jr. Michigan DT

Titans could use some flavor on defense and I think Jenkins is going to end up drafted much higher than presumed.  Teams covet the fierce DL warriors at the end of the day and Jenkins has it in his blood.

 

39 - CAR - Marshawn Kneeland EDGE Western Michigan 6’3 267

Kneeland just bullies OTs.  Makes them look silly.  Has NFL-ready strength, a DIRTY bull rush, can play in the dirt, standing, and is excellent against the run.  He just has a lot of traits that teams look for.  He’s also just very fitting for a rotation like ours and he can do quite a lot.  Once he’s off the board, the EDGE’s become a bit sparse or more speed-rush/one dimensional.  (Do love Ellis though).  We met with him, and I get a sense he’s a guy Morgan quite likes. 

Just a tough, powerful dawg here.  Could be a big piece for a long time.  Reminds me of Tuli last year who I loved for us (damn you Fitt)

Alternate considerations: Junior Colson ILB Michigan, Nate Wiggins CB Clemson, Braden Fiske DT FSU, Xavier Legette WR South Carolina, Keon Coleman WR FSU, Ja'Lynn Polk WR Wash

 

–

 

REMAINING DRAFT TARGETS:

LATE-2ND to EARLY 3RD:

Trey Benson RB FSU 6’0 220

He is easily my favorite RB in the draft.  He’s a home run hitter, gap and zone experience as a runner, a quick cutter, plays with balance and toughness.  Just really like the fit as an all-around guy to come in and get the bulk carries.  Instantly changes our offense in a big way.   

 

Ja’Lynn Polk WR Washington 6'1 203

Polk may not flash speed wise, but his ability to catch through contact and consistently get open is why I’m a fan.  Experience at the X, Z and slot.  Can get all over the place and when he had a game or so banged up, the Washington offense looked different.  I get a sense he’s really liked by teams.  

 

Xavier Legette WR South Carolina 6’1 221

He plays like he’s 6’4 and has the jets to beat man.  It makes sense why so many are drawn to the kid - well, that and being a Carolina boy.  However, his late blooming, combined with his lack of short area skills are what get me a bit.  He’s not going to get open quickly against base zone concepts, but he will bully guys for the ball and make plays.  

You either need to get him a running start or get him isolated in man to create opportunities.  The team is obviously very interested and I can’t deny the potential.  Not the biggest fan but he could be really good.  I could see him in the 2nd if they like him THAT much, top of the 3rd, no problem at all.      

 

Malik Washington WR Virginia 5’8.5 191

I like this kid a lot.  He’s a hair under 5’9 but I gotta say, his catch radius and the way he plays is larger than how it reads. 

I just love how absolutely tough he runs.  His YAC skills, experience as a volume catcher, it’s just a lot to like.  He will be a really good asset for any offense, and especially Bryce.  I just love when you can get a guy that WAS his team’s offense.  I get the same vibes that I did with Dell last year around Malik.  Led CFS in multiple categories, has the experience and whole feel for the position.  

At minimum, instant impact slot machine.  Maximum, he could get some snaps outside depending on the team we’re facing and just blow up year 1.      

 

Max Melton CB Rutgers 6'0 187

Melton has been flying under the radar a tad but I think we’re eyeing DBs and he could be one of them.  Some great quickness and ability to keep up with NFL WRs.  Ballhawk, put up good numbers, very instinctive. 

 

Jonah Ellis EDGE Utah & Bralen Trice EDGE Washington

A double EDGE shoutout.  For Trice - I was a fan going into this past season but his game just isn’t consistent enough against the run to take him super high.  HOWEVER, this kid, similar to Ellis, just gets after the QB and both are exciting pass rushers.  Given we have a rotation with Clowney, Wonnum, and maybe DJJ, these guys could come in and compete for snaps against Barno.  They have the ceiling to turn into more starting caliber types sooner than later.   

 

LATE 3RD TO 4TH

Javon Baker WR UCF 6’1 202

Another guy with a great catch radius and attitude after the catch.  

Can play multiple spots so fits in a few different ways.  Have even seen Dionte Johnson comps–Not to mention, spent 2 years with Bryce Young so there could be some chemistry there even if they didn’t have a ton of statistical production together (he was behind quite the WRs at Bama in 2020) 

Honestly, if he and Bryce are tight, this could be a really strong prospect for us.  Love his X-potential.    

 

Marshawn Lloyd RB USC 5’9 220 4.46 & Jaylen Wright RB Tennessee

Lloyd is the next RB that I think could work really well for Bryce.  Can catch, love his sudden change in direction combined with his acceleration at that size.  Brings a lot to the table and would compete with Hubbard for the top snap count pretty quickly.  Good blend of physicality and receiving ability.    

Wright is also right there with him, could go higher.  Some great all-around ability, tough runner, big play ability, home run threat.  He's like a jacked Kamara.   

 

Ben Sinnott TE Kansas State 6’4 240

I think Sinnott is the TE to land from this class after Brock.  If he’s floating around in the 4th, I’d love to see us be aggressive and get him.  Just don’t lose capital, get a package together that makes sense. 

Great production, was his team’s leading receiver (not the best offense), but like with Malik, I love when it’s a guy with the bulk volume experience for his offense.  That’s a person who has already faced and handled a diverse set of players, and has likely matched up more along the way against NFL talent.

 

Dru Philips CB Kentucky

This is a DB prospect not to sleep on.  Physical, athletic, strong, with speed…willing to go toe-to-toe with bigger WRs even at his height just under 5’11. Needs to shore up some of his tackling skills, but that’s why guys end up in the 3rd-4th.  Strong potential.   

 

SLEEPERS/LATER ON

Cornelius Johnson WR Michigan 6’3 212 4.44

He’s a guy who has grown on me during the process and watching McCarthy and Wilson.  He plays with attitude against DBs, has a great speed + size combo, and NFL ready tools.  He would be a strong developmental type to have behind Dionte and who knows, maybe he could have an impact early.  

 

Anthony Gould WR Oregon State & Jacob Cowing WR Arizona 5’8 170

These dudes are burners.  Size may bring both down draft boards but they get vertical and are fun to watch.  Both started 3 years+ and could be rather effective sooner than later.  

If we go with a bigger guy early, I wouldn’t look past adding either Gould or Cowing late rounds.  Just take a flyer on one of these types. 

 

 

--
Okay, well that's it for now, may add more later.  Cheers.





 

I would take this all day any day. A+ grade on Day 2 if it fell this way. 

33 - CAR - Zach Frazier G/C West Virginia 6’3 316

39 - CAR - Marshawn Kneeland EDGE Western Michigan 6’3 267

65 - CAR - Trey Benson RB FSU 6’0 220 or Xavier Legette WR South Carolina 6’1 221

Ben Sinnott TE Kansas State 6’4 240 in the 4th round would be icing on the cake.

 

 

[PNW_PantherMan]

Nice write up.  I still can’t believe JJ McCarthy is where he is.

[ChuckWag78]

Great write up. 

 

I am holding out for Darius Robinson to fall to us. I think he would be a great fit to our front. 

[mccjeff]

Thanks for the work