The value of Pick #33 if traded

[Troys99x4]

The value of this pick will skyrocket on 4/26. I would not even think about trading it until that clock starts on day 2. 

[rayzor]

i think it all depends on who we really want and where we think they are on other interested party's board. 

if we think there's a clump of WRs we would be good with in the early-mid 40s, then if the price is nice then go right ahead. either one that makes one of our later picks early or just gives us another one without having to drop any pick more than 10 spots. 

just the way that i've been looking at it all. one thing i would really like to see move up earlier is that pick 240. i really hate that one. just talking about in the mocks i've been doing. it's a royal pain. if we cna bundle that one and move up to a <150 pick i'd be happy. other than that i don't want to lose any picks. either shuffle them around to give later ones better position or add picks.

it's all a big gamble, though. you play it wrong and you wind up on the wrong side of a run you wish you had been in on. 

one thing to consider that i haven't really messed around much with is trading for picks next year. I don't want to lose any picks this year, but if we can turn that pick 39 into a 4-50 pick this year and a first next year do you take it? What if the 33 gives you a first and second next year, but you have to take a early third this year for it as well and your first pick in the draft is 39? 

so many scenarios to contemplate and not outright disregard. it's going to be fun but can also be tough to watch.

[rayzor]

20 minutes ago, Troys99x4 said:

The value of this pick will skyrocket on 4/26. I would not even think about trading it until that clock starts on day 2. 

my thoughts. if, for example, the pats miss out on a first round QB and they come knocking you'd better listen. 

[Camp Fodder]

Only if two high seconds are offered do I give up 33rd. that is potentially 1st round talent 

[kungfoodude]

5 hours ago, jayboogieman said:

And sadly that made most of the posters here happy at that time. They bought into the line about all the players except the top 15 being nearly the same in Fitterer and Rhule's eyes. "We got a real GM because he's working the draft!" was a common comment despite giving up better talent for warm bodies.

I was so furious at that draft at the time. I was definitely one of the few that didn't "get" the quantity versus quality strategy. It was so fuging insane.

[CamWhoaaaCam]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I was so furious at that draft at the time. I was definitely one of the few that didn't "get" the quantity versus quality strategy. It was so fuging insane.

Made no sense whatsoever 

[kungfoodude]

Just now, CamWhoaaaCam said:

Made no sense whatsoever 

Absolutely none. It was one of the most arrogant and stupid things I have ever seen done in a draft.

[jayboogieman]

46 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I was so furious at that draft at the time. I was definitely one of the few that didn't "get" the quantity versus quality strategy. It was so fuging insane.

I remember @Waldo, you, and me not liking it. But we were definitely in the minority.

[Ricky Prickles]

I don't want to move out of this position for much of anything unless the haul we would get would be so amazing that it was a no brainer. We have a chance to acquire a very solid start with pick 33 and I would prefer us keeping it and selecting someone with it.

[tukafan21]

Nobody is trading up to 33 to take a QB, if they are going to do that for a WB who falls, they’ll give up a little more to get one of the late first round picks so they get the 5th year option

[Mother Grabber]

once round 1 has ended, we’ll have an entire day to shop that pick to desperate teams who want to move up for someone who dropped, especially if Bo Nix and/or Pee Nix slipped. we could get some really great value out of it before the start of round 2.

[MHS831]

On 4/3/2024 at 8:00 PM, Jon Snow said:

Stopped reading at ESPN. 

It is an acronym and very difficult to pronounce.

 

*Just kidding.  I hated to put it because I only watch ESPN when the NFL Network is not interesting--and I have some strong reservations about the NFL Network.  Still, they do have so called "experts"  and this is based on what they were saying, but  not the essence of the point.

[Hoenheim]

On 4/3/2024 at 8:06 PM, strato said:

You only trade if someone will over pay.

Pretty much. Trading 33 just to swap down to much lower  2nd round pick  and only picking up a 3rd and a 5th or something isn't worth it.

I would only trade down if you're swapping less than 5 picks  or less down in the 2nd. I firmly believe that those leftover players with first round grades will fly off the board in the first 10 or so picks of R2. The fact that we already have 2  picks high in R2 is way too valuable to give that up. Unless someone wants to do something stupid like giving us a 1st next year or swapping 2nd rounds this year and giving us a 2nd rounder in 2025 (remember we don't have 2nd round pick in 2025 due to the trade up for Bryce)

[Hoenheim]

23 hours ago, rayzor said:

What if the 33 gives you a first and second next year, but you have to take a early third this year for it as well and your first pick in the draft is 39? 

 

That is 100 percent worth it to me. Trading a 2nd for a 1st is already a win imo unless the team you're trading to is a deep playoff team or something.  

The fact that we still have another 2nd round pick opens up more options I'd say.  It's enough ammo to trade up to jump one of those late playoff teams for a player they really want badly (ex elite WR drops further than expected).  And the two 2nd rounders lessens the blow of trading down especially if you're picking up another high pick for 2025 (and keep in mind we don't have a 2nd round pick in 2025).

It's a little tantalizing to imagine if we had 2  first round picks in 2025. And we had a poo season along with the team that traded with us. Then all of a sudden you got 2 first round picks in the top 10 in 2025. You can do all sorts of poo with that kind of capital.

Edited April 5, 2024 by Hoenheim