Xavier Legette and Peyton Wilson 33 and 39

[top dawg]

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

As prospects they are very similar. Yes.

He might be worth a 2nd round pick, I just don't think he's a great fit for us due to redundancy. I did this same thing about Funchess with KB on the roster. 

Why is this so triggering for you?

Because they aren't very similar, they just have some---arguably peripheral---similarities. When you actually go deeper into researching them, they have substantial differences. Anyone that seems invested in not acknowledging the substantial differences, just seems more interested in supporting a weak-sauce narrative than truly looking at how Legette could possibly improve the Panthers in a big way. 

I get it, it's a dart throw, but "scared money don't make no money." I don't think it's a coincidence that Legette exploded after his college career curve. Sure, he could be the guy that people with lower expectations have painted him out to be, and that would be really a run-of-the-mill bad investment, see-I-told-you-so type of a deal. But, if he continues his meteoric rise toward that super potential that analysts say that he has, the team that drafts him will get a true one in the second round, and that would help us to get ahead of schedule.

[LinvilleGorge]

Maybe he's just a late bloomer and he'll continue to rapidly improve. The one year wonders generally don't though. There's been quite a few guys leverage extra COVID years into NFL opportunities as they finally find success playing as literal men amongst boys. Kenny Pickett comes to mind immediately.

[Navy_football]

I know he played in the SEC, but does anyone know how he did against CBs mocked in the top 3 rounds?

He does seem to have another gear when he gets the ball.

[Bear Hands]

It's not just about getting separation against man coverage, but it's having the quickness from the jump to beat zone these days.  You need guys that square up against modern NFL defenses.   

Legette has great, and I mean great, top-speed for his size and is a fun as hell watch.  You throw on a highlight reel and it makes sense why people like the guy.  His story is also super emotional and am super happy that he was able to break out in his 5th year after nothing his first 4 (even with a sh*t offense)

However, Legette ranks dead last in his grading vs. zone in the entire draft class.  That and the scary low YPRR are things that advanced metric junkies are for good reason are quite nervous.  And you can see the stiffness in his hips when watching him work quicker out routes.  Those mid to short patterns where you need to break away quickly, he just isn't there/it's not refined yet with his skills. Sure, we got Dionte, but it would be foolish to treat this as a checklist type situation.  We need ready talent with upside that can immediately help Bryce.  

When it comes to getting NFL open under a diverse route tree, I just have a hard time seeing it with Legette and he will need time to develop. Doesn't mean he can't acclimate, but there's some clear development needed.  

He's got the aggressive get-the-ball mentality and hand-catching down for his posts/corners, but right now, you may need to slow drip anything other than posts, corner, and deep crossing routes.  Thing is,  those get open far less of the time in the big leagues.  It's something easier said than done and what guys can bully college DBs with.   

You're just not using him to beat zone defenses and slowly beat a team into submission.  Something we need to do with Bryce.  We're not some big play offense with a superstar QB chucking balls downfield.  We need guys who can operate quick slants, shallow crosses, be part of this balanced-Carroll type offense.     

So--I don't see him making sense for us.  Too many question marks, first real year of any sort of production.  Shows some great promise as an X in the mold of an AJ Brown with a lot more development needed.  I'll eat it if he turns up great, but I'm nervous as heck with him for THIS team.  Like him as prospect, not for our situation.    

[top dawg]

16 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

It's not just about getting separation against man coverage, but it's having the quickness from the jump to beat zone these days.  You need guys that square up against modern NFL defenses.   

Legette has great, and I mean great, top-speed for his size and is a fun as hell watch.  You throw on a highlight reel and it makes sense why people like the guy.  His story is also super emotional and am super happy that he was able to break out in his 5th year after nothing his first 4 (even with a sh*t offense)

However, Legette ranks dead last in his grading vs. zone in the entire draft class.  That and the scary low YPRR are things that advanced metric junkies are for good reason are quite nervous.  And you can see the stiffness in his hips when watching him work quicker out routes.  Those mid to short patterns where you need to break away quickly, he just isn't there/it's not refined yet with his skills. Sure, we got Dionte, but it would be foolish to treat this as a checklist type situation.  We need ready talent with upside that can immediately help Bryce.  

When it comes to getting NFL open under a diverse route tree, I just have a hard time seeing it with Legette and he will need time to develop. Doesn't mean he can't acclimate, but there's some clear development needed.  

He's got the aggressive get-the-ball mentality and hand-catching down for his posts/corners, but right now, you may need to slow drip anything other than posts, corner, and deep crossing routes.  Thing is,  those get open far less of the time in the big leagues.  It's something easier said than done and what guys can bully college DBs with.   

You're just not using him to beat zone defenses and slowly beat a team into submission.  Something we need to do with Bryce.  We're not some big play offense with a superstar QB chucking balls downfield.  We need guys who can operate quick slants, shallow crosses, be part of this balanced-Carroll type offense.     

So--I don't see him making sense for us.  Too many question marks, first real year of any sort of production.  Shows some great promise as an X in the mold of an AJ Brown with a lot more development needed.  I'll eat it if he turns up great, but I'm nervous as heck with him for THIS team.  Like him as prospect, not for our situation.    

When you say that he ranks dead last against zone coverage, who is grading and is that based upon total production or what? I ask because it would be easily explainable if it was based upon opportunities. We need some context.

[LinvilleGorge]

What is it that you like about the guy? Let's hear your case. You sure like to try to tear down anyone else's opinions. Let's hear YOURS.

[top dawg]

1 hour ago, Martin said:

I’m looking for someone that can get open quickly, is already a good route runner, great at creating separation. And from what I’ve seen and read, that’s not Legette. 

Without that skill set, how do you think he’ll fit in our offense? And why don’t you think those skills are important?

What are you reading? Some of the things that I've read about Legette don't sound any worse than any receiver not named Harrison, Nabers and Odunze. You sound like you're saying that he can't improve, but they all have things that they need to work on, and route running is at the top of the list (except maybe for Harrison whose dad prepared his son in depth for all aspects on and off the field).

Unlike apparently some Huddlers, I don't think in terms of only playing with Bryce. I also don't believe that anyone rightly knows what type of offense we will even have. I do hope that Canales and company will actually play to a player's strengths and put them into opportunities where they can succeed. 

Moreover, I have seen Legette get open, and I've seen him create separation. Legette's highlight jump balls are hardly his only receptions, as great as they are. All you have to do is look at some vids, many of which contain the All-22 film. Can he improve? Sure, and that's what development is all about. And, as I've said many times before, the preponderance of rookie receivers need to refine route running and creating separation once they transition to the pros. 

Mitchell, Worthy, Pearsall, Wilson, and many more aren't Picasso's out there when it comes to route running. They can and will be rerouted by physical corners who press and try to hinder them in their routes, and none of them are as physical at the catch point as Legette (not even Coleman). So in my opinion you just have to pick and choose based upon strengths, weaknesses and projections.

Personally, what I don't want at 33 is a receiver who doesn't have X potential. We can get one of those later in round two all the way through the end of day 2 probably. In my opinion, we need a receiver who has the highest upside possible, who can play adeptly outside and in the slot, and is a true threat to take it to the house on any given play. Legette's explosiveness will allow that. The only other receivers that could possibly do it are Mitchell or Worthy, but then you get back to their lack of physicality. But, like I said, drafting these guys is about development. 

If we decide that Legette is too rich at 33 or 39 for that matter, I can live with it (and have to). But if we draft let's say a Pearsall or a Wilson while Legette is still on the board, in my opinion we'd be making a big mistake. But, it's gonna be what it's gonna be.

[Jackie Lee]

Another zone chart

 

[Bear Hands]

8 minutes ago, top dawg said:

When you say that he ranks dead last against zone coverage, who is grading and is that based upon total production or what? I ask because it would be easily explainable if it was based upon opportunities. We need some context.

His career YPRR is 1.55. His PFF grade against zone is 61.10.  Dead last in the class (and) I find it apparent in watching him on many intermediate and shorter routes.   It's all on PFF Premium stats and fairly clear when you watch him from my view, but I only know what I know.

https://premium.pff.com/ncaa/players/2023/REGPO/xavier-legette/99197/receiving

He's a particular type of receiver right now that I don't find to be a fit.  He's an X-Prototype, with some meh/okay slot capabilities but he's at his best outside.  To the "meh" point - He doesn't have the upper body nuances and route running refinement you like to see against zone.  What that is in particular: He doesn't yet attack the blind spot, doesn't have a quick juke with proper hand movement on his outs, poor hip drop (he telegraphs), eye movement doesn't fake anyone, there's no subtle speed changes.  He relies on out muscling and out running.   What he does will become infinitely harder trying to shake much stickier DBs with pro-level discipline.  

This is also not a guy we can bring right in and run motions, shallow crosses, the quick underneath stuff with.  Just look how Godwin & Evans were used last year by Canales.  He likes them versatile.  Legette (right now) is primed for posts, corners, deep crosses in isolation against man.   

Nothing against what I think he COULD do in the league, but having an X-prototype with limited short field capacity is not going to help us right NOW.  Now, you get him on the outside in man, sure, he squares off great, that's where he's better than those two other young guys we have.  And in addition, he's much more of a hands catcher which I love.  Near the top of the class in that regard.  And it makes sense, he's got some good abilities in this regard.  Isolate, let him beat the guy.  

So, overall, he burns and bullies DBs, but that become less effective with the comp at the pro-level.   And when you don't yet have certain technicalities down yet, there will be a whole new book for him to read up on.   

He can't just live off of contested catches and beating guys at the second level.  Who knows, maybe he CAN acclimate quickly and I look foolish.  Power to you if you're in the camp thinking he does and we can use him all over.   I'm just not there from what I'm seeing and reading.  I'm no pro at this but he gives me significant pause if he's the only WR we take and I'm not really being sold by much other than his speed+highlight reels.  

I'd be 100% for him late 2nd-early 3rd but the value we're missing out on in who will be available at 33 and 39 is well ahead of what he brings and it becomes another forced draft error if we take him that early.  

My 2 cents.  Agree to disagree if you're fully on camp Legette.  

[top dawg]

21 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

What is it that you like about the guy? Let's hear your case. You sure like to try to tear down anyone else's opinions. Let's hear YOURS.

If you're talking to me, I've already explained it to, very concisely i might add, in this thread.

[CPF4LIFE]

People are just gonna learn the hard way about looking too deep into advance analytics. Its not something to hitch your wagon too.

[top dawg]

25 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

His career YPRR is 1.55. His PFF grade against zone is 61.10.  Dead last in the class (and) I find it apparent in watching him on many intermediate and shorter routes.   It's all on PFF Premium stats and fairly clear when you watch him from my view, but I only know what I know.

https://premium.pff.com/ncaa/players/2023/REGPO/xavier-legette/99197/receiving

He's a particular type of receiver right now that I don't find to be a fit.  He's an X-Prototype, with some meh/okay slot capabilities but he's at his best outside.  To the "meh" point - He doesn't have the upper body nuances and route running refinement you like to see against zone.  What that is in particular: He doesn't yet attack the blind spot, doesn't have a quick juke with proper hand movement on his outs, poor hip drop (he telegraphs), eye movement doesn't fake anyone, there's no subtle speed changes.  He relies on out muscling and out running.   What he does will become infinitely harder trying to shake much stickier DBs with pro-level discipline.  

This is also not a guy we can bring right in and run motions, shallow crosses, the quick underneath stuff with.  Just look how Godwin & Evans were used last year by Canales.  He likes them versatile.  Legette (right now) is primed for posts, corners, deep crosses in isolation against man.   

Nothing against what I think he COULD do in the league, but having an X-prototype with limited short field capacity is not going to help us right NOW.  Now, you get him on the outside in man, sure, he squares off great, that's where he's better than those two other young guys we have.  And in addition, he's much more of a hands catcher which I love.  Near the top of the class in that regard.  And it makes sense, he's got some good abilities in this regard.  Isolate, let him beat the guy.  

So, overall, he burns and bullies DBs, but that become less effective with the comp at the pro-level.   And when you don't yet have certain technicalities down yet, there will be a whole new book for him to read up on.   

He can't just live off of contested catches and beating guys at the second level.  Who knows, maybe he CAN acclimate quickly and I look foolish.  Power to you if you're in the camp thinking he does and we can use him all over.   I'm just not there from what I'm seeing and reading.  I'm no pro at this but he gives me significant pause if he's the only WR we take and I'm not really being sold by much other than his speed+highlight reels.  

I'd be 100% for him late 2nd-early 3rd but the value we're missing out on in who will be available at 33 and 39 is well ahead of what he brings and it becomes another forced draft error if we take him that early.  

My 2 cents.  Agree to disagree if you're fully on camp Legette.  

Now that's fair. I'm getting ready to return to work, so I don't have much time, but  I'd say that YPRR generally isn't the be-all-end-all stat, and can be indicative of an offense or your place in it. But I'll look into it. 

Also, I don't agree that he won't be able to run underneath, and do so fairly immediately because I've seen him do it.

I've already said that I don't look at things through the prism of one QB or one season, especially when you don't know that the QB is going to be here, or exactly what type of offense we will run.

I'm just basically saying that the juice is worth the squeeze. 

[Ricky Prickles]

8 hours ago, top dawg said:

Because they aren't very similar, they just have some---arguably peripheral---similarities. When you actually go deeper into researching them, they have substantial differences. Anyone that seems invested in not acknowledging the substantial differences, just seems more interested in supporting a weak-sauce narrative than truly looking at how Legette could possibly improve the Panthers in a big way. 

I get it, it's a dart throw, but "scared money don't make no money." I don't think it's a coincidence that Legette exploded after his college career curve. Sure, he could be the guy that people with lower expectations have painted him out to be, and that would be really a run-of-the-mill bad investment, see-I-told-you-so type of a deal. But, if he continues his meteoric rise toward that super potential that analysts say that he has, the team that drafts him will get a true one in the second round, and that would help us to get ahead of schedule.

What he said exactly except he said it much better than I could have. Totally agree with you.

[Jackie Lee]

No Legette in this top 50