Hope for TMJ?

[MHS831]

This is just some offseason logic because I was seeing the same old thread topics on the Huddle and decided to stir to pot a bit, and I assure you that I am prepared for the "he sucks!" and "What the hell is wrong with you!!!"  responses; I have doubled up on my meds today.  But as we focus on the top of the WR room--appropriately--we have a lot of stock in 33-34 year old Thielen and newcomer (5-10, 180lb) Johnson.  Neither Johnson nor Thielen is a candidate to return in 2025--but that remains to be seen. 

I had given up on TMJ, and I am not sure that the Panthers have not as well.  However, there is something I ran across that suggests he deserves one more season.  Based on this stat alone, the author predicted TMJ would have a breakout year in 2023 and "become a household name."  Obviously that did not happen, but there were many factors that prevented him to be able to excel in this particular area of his game--and we can blame Bryce and the OL, but maybe the factors were not in place for him to shine.

In 2022, Marshall was tops on the list of WRs who ran "GO" routes.  See #3, and remember how Canales used Evans in Tampa--

@PFF

1. Terrace Marshall: (97.1) 2. A.J. Brown: (96.6) 3. Mike Evans: (95.1)

Of course, Marshall did not have the yardage the others' had (Marshall had almost 500 yards in 2022), but he did not have the opportunities either. 

Marshall is still 23 years old. 

Diontae Johnson caught 59% of his targets in 2023, while Marshall Jr. caught 63%.  Thielen caught 76%, for context.  Chark, the person they brought in to be a deep threat, caught 56% of his targets. Mingo caught 52% of his targets.  The only difference between Marshall and all other WRs not named Thielen seems to be the number of overall targets.

This suggests (to me) that TMJ is not a great route runner since the GO is the easiest route to run.   I think that Canales will want to work to develop TMJ.  Put him in a position to succeed.   In 2023, TMJ played in 9 games and actually was targeted more than Mingo per game when he was playing (10% to 9%).  Mingo played in six more games.  Johnson, in Pittsburgh, was target 15% of the time, more than Thielen (13%). 

 

In 2022, however, TMJ averaged 17.5 yards per catch and had 490 yards, catching 60% of targets--his QB play was not good, but the OL was much better, allowing him to run longer, deeper routes.  I contend that TMJ's digression was likely due to the OL's performance in 2023, not allowing him the time to run the routes that have been proven to be the most successful in his tool belt. 

Again, he is 23, turning 24 in June.  Some of the WRs in the draft this season are that age.  Mingo turns 23 this month, fwiw.

Can Canales save TMJ? 

At 6'2" TMJ does have the size he needs to be an outside WR and he has show to be at his best running the same routes Evans and AJ Brown run--so who knows? 

With a new OL and new coaching staff, I say let him have camp to see what he can do.  Still, at age 23, there could be something there.

I realize some will say that both Mingo and TMJ suck, but TMJ actually outperformed Mingo last season if you break it down to the number of games, targets, and production per target. 

 

[CamWhoaaCam]

I hate this place sometimes. For the record...

 

 

TMJ aka That Man A Joke!  

Edited April 1 by CamWhoaaCam

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

I hate this place sometimes. For the record.

 

 

That Man A Joke!

This place hates you sometimes.  For the record.  So you are suggesting that, since you think a 23-year old football player coming off a bad season in which he played 9 games is a joke.  I never claimed that he was the second coming, but your response seems to suggest that someone has dared to contradict one of your unsupported opinions.  Tell me, did you read this at all?  Do you see where anyone is saying he will be good or great?  Since nobody said that, why do you feel the need to jump in and talking about what you hate ?  Are we supposed to give a shiit?  Learn to think critically and respond maturely.  this ain't middle school, and you will see that when you get there.

[rayzor]

We've had crappy coaches for a few years.

NO ability to develop anyone.

basically...who knows?

One thing that i've discovered over the years is we aren't as smart as we think we are. We might be smarter than some of the coaches and FO people we've had here (bar set kind of low there), but consider that those were the guys we have had to depend on to develop and make the best use of guys like TMJ. 

I'm just finding it hard to write off anyone on this team because we don't know what anyone is capable of if you've got good coaching. Some guys can get by without it, but some guys desperately need it. not their fault we havent had that here for them.

That said, we should absolutely not act as if this year he is going to break out so we don't have to worry about loading up on all the WRs. act as if it's likely not going to happen, but keep him just in case he turns out to be a pleasant surprise. just don't count on that. 

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, rayzor said:

We've had crappy coaches for a few years.

NO ability to develop anyone.

basically...who knows?

One thing that i've discovered over the years is we aren't as smart as we think we are. We might be smarter than some of the coaches and FO people we've had here (bar set kind of low there), but consider that those were the guys we have had to depend on to develop and make the best use of guys like TMJ. 

I'm just finding it hard to write off anyone on this team because we don't know what anyone is capable of if you've got good coaching. Some guys can get by without it, but some guys desperately need it. not their fault we havent had that here for them.

That said, we should absolutely not act as if this year he is going to break out so we don't have to worry about loading up on all the WRs. act as if it's likely not going to happen, but keep him just in case he turns out to be a pleasant surprise. just don't count on that. 

It is a "so you say there is a chance" situation, but he has the foundation. 

[rayzor]

as always, @MHS831 i appreciate the work you put into it.

[CamWhoaaCam]

8 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

This place hates you sometimes.  For the record.  So you are suggesting that, since you think a 23-year old football player coming off a bad season in which he played 9 games is a joke.  I never claimed that he was the second coming, but your response seems to suggest that someone has dared to contradict one of your unsupported opinions.  Tell me, did you read this at all?  Do you see where anyone is saying he will be good or great?  Since nobody said that, why do you feel the need to jump in and talking about what you hate ?  Are we supposed to give a shiit?  Learn to think critically and respond maturely.  this ain't middle school, and you will see that when you get there.

This place hates and loves me at the same time.

 

Btw this was no shot at your post. I'm just tired of the hope with TMJ every single year. You're more than welcome to believe in him.

 

Just to show you it's nothing personal I'm removing my poo emoji my good friend.

[ForJimmy]

I want to have hope for him, but every time I do he lets me down.  He has had awful coaching no joke, but I've watched him completely give up on routes.  In college he was a beat though, and didn't he catch more TDs than JJ and Chase that final year?  Maybe I'm making that up...

[rayzor]

Just now, MHS831 said:

It is a "so you say there is a chance" situation, but he has the foundation. 

yeah i think everyone saw the potential (not just us) and have been surprised to not see him reach it. but considering the crapfest we've had here for years, we shouldn't be. 

it's been so long since we've had competent coaching (was even lacking while rivera was here) that i just don't know what we could have done with who we've had. I don't think Fitt was a personnel guru at all, but coaching didn't help out the guys he did draft.

[rayzor]

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

I want to have hope for him, but every time I do he lets me down.  He has had awful coaching no joke, but I've watched him completely give up on routes.  In college he was a beat though, and didn't he catch more TDs than JJ and Chase that final year?  Maybe I'm making that up...

for a young guy, even that stuff can be coached out. when you are managed by obvious poo leaders, you kind of reach a point where you just start to give up. 

 

[45catfan]

Remember, we gave him the option to explore a trade and there were no takers.  He's a #4 at best.  If he can't run a majority of the route tree and 'go' routes are his bread and butter, then we have a DJ Chark 2.0.  We keep him around this year as depth and let him walk in FA next offseason.  FWIW, there's actually about $1M in cap space if he's cut.  If the cap gets real tight and we land a good prospect in the draft, he may walk this year

Edited April 1 by 45catfan

[rayzor]

2 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Remember, we gave him the option to explore a trade and there were no takers.  He's a #4 at best.  If he can't run a majority of the route tree and 'go' routes are his bread and butter, then we have a DJ Chark 2.0.  We keep him around this year as depth and let him walk in FA next offseason.  FWIW, there's actually about $1M in cap space if he's cut.  If the cap gets real tight and we land a good prospect in the draft, he may walk this year

yeah i won't cry if we draft a couple guys better than him right out of the gate and he becomes an afterthought. i'm trying to keep an open mind about everyone.

[MHS831]

13 minutes ago, rayzor said:

for a young guy, even that stuff can be coached out. when you are managed by obvious poo leaders, you kind of reach a point where you just start to give up. 

 

Yeah, a lot of football is mental.  I do believe that Canales knows that--he is so positive.  Maybe, just maybe....  It is really easy to say that he sucks- but if you step back and look at this big picture, his skill set is not a good match for the crap we have had here on offense--As a former college player who caught passes, I can tell you that your job is to get open and get the QB to see you and throw you the ball.  He did that 10% of the time the QB passed the ball when he played.  In comparison, Thielen who had a 1000 yard season, had 13% of the targets.  If you compare the catch percentage of targets to the QB percentage for completions, 64% was the average completion percentage last year.  TMJ has had 2 seasons at 60% or above--that suggests that he is not far from where he should be. So what is the issue?  He has 5 drops in his career--that ain't it, but it is about 9%, which is a bit high.  If they can improve the situation for TMJ, he could suddenly not suck--we shall see.

[rayzor]

1 minute ago, MHS831 said:

he could suddenly not suck--

lol i think that's where the bar of expectation is for him at the moment.