MHS's first round mock with BPA and trade scenarios for #33

[MHS831]

Whew.  Took longer than I thought--I researched each team's needs to figure out what player they are likely to pursue, based on websites and fans' comments.  Here is what I came up with:

1. Chicago Bears Team needs: QB, IOL, WR, EDGE, DT, S, IOL  Commentary: Obviously the pick will now be a QB, and it is fairly certain that it will be Caleb Williams.  Pick: Caleb Williams QB, USC

2. Washington Commanders Team needs: QB, IOL, EDGE, CB, LB, OT, WR  Commentary:  The pick will be QB, and there is some debate about the style of QB the Commanders will draft.  After signing a backup, it may have been a tell:  Pick:  Jayden Daniels QB, LSU

3. New England Patriots Team needs: QB, OT, WR, TE, LB, DL, OT  Commentary:  The Patriots are probably going to be happy with QB#3 falling into their laps.  Pick: Drake Maye, QB, UNC

4. Arizona Cardinals   Team needs: CB, DT, EDGE, LB, OG, WR, OT  Commentary:  TRADE TO GIANTS The draft gets interesting here because Arizona has so many needs.  I predict a possible trade with the NY Giants; that would keep the Vikings from moving up to #5 to get McCarthy.  The Cards could probably get a second rounder out of the Giants for a QB-related trade. Knowing that the Giants would take a QB, it means that they could still possibly get Harrison at #6.  With so many needs, they take the second rounder and move back 2 spots. Pick TRADED TO GIANTS: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan

5. Los Angeles Chargers Team needs: CB, DL, RB, LB, TE, OT, IOL, WR  Commentary:  If the Giants make the move they almost have to make, the Chargers probably run to the podium with their pick–the best WR to come out in quite some time.  If the Cards sit tight and take Harrison, this pick becomes a bidding war between the Giants and Minnesota–so the Giants might get off cheaper dealing with #4 than #5.  Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State.

6. New York Giants  Team needs: IOL, WR, EDGE, DL, RB, CB  Commentary:  TRADE TO CARDINALS This pick was traded to the Arizona Cardinals for pick #4, giving Cards the #6 and #47 overall selections.  The Cards select the second best WR in the draft.  Pick: TRADED TO CARDINALS: Malik Nabors, WR, LSU

7. Tennessee Titans Team needs: OT, IOL, WR, CB, EDGE, TE, DL, RB  Commentary:  The Titans’ biggest need is probably OT, and there are 8 teams who have a similar interest.  While it is possible that a team with a need at T or WR makes offers to trade up, I take the best OT if I am the GM.  Pick:  Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame.

8. Atlanta Falcons Team needs:  EDGE, IOL, WR, CB, LB, DL  Commentary:  The Falcons can focus on the defense and their biggest need is for an Edge.  Pick: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

9. Chicago Bears Team needs:  IOL, WR, EDGE, DL, S, IOL  Commentary:  With the new QB, the Bears could go two ways here.  They could decide that Moore is the #1 and they can wait to get a WR in round 2, but their second biggest need, edge, was addressed with Montez Sweat last year.  They will give Caleb another weapon.  Pick:  Rome Odunze, WR Washington

10. New York Jets  Team needs: OT, IOL, OT, DL, QB, RB, WR  Commentary:  There is a reason you do not mock draft before free agency–the Jets signed 2 veteran OTs (Smith, Moses) and will probably start them.  With the top 3 WRs off the board, the Jets upgrade tremendously with an offensive weapon just as dangerous. While it is probably too early, if one of the three teams picking after the Jets decide they want Penix, this could get interesting.   Pick:  Brock Bowers, TE Georgia.

11. Minnesota Vikings  Team needs: QB, EDGE, CB, DT, RB LB  Commentary: Minnesota has the #11 and #23 pick in the draft, and #11 will go to McCarthy if he lasts this long;  Penix would be a huge reach here and at #23.  Denver and Vegas are without starting QBs, unless Minshew is the starter.  Does that force the Vikings to take Penix maybe a round too soon?  While many mockers are taking an edge here, I do not, and they will hope the #23 pick can be for a QB.  The Pick:  Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama

12. Denver Broncos Team needs: QB, DL, IOL, S, CB, LB, EDGE  Commentary:   I think they;d like to trade back a bit and then up for a QB later, maybe on day 2.  Pick TRADED TO NEW ORLEANS:  Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

13. Las Vegas Raiders Team needs: QB, IOL, DL, CB, OT, LB, RB.  Minshew is not the long term answer, but unless Vegas rolls the dice and goes after Lefty Penix, I don’t see QB right now.  The choice is between OT and CB, and OT is deep in the first round.  Decent CB talent can be found later.  The Pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

14. New Orleans Saints Team needs: IOL, EDGE, DL, WR, LB, CB, RB, TE, S TRADED TO DENVER Denver is difficult because they could really use a CB opposite Surtain to keep teams honest, but QB is not realistic here as is OT.  Pick TRADED TO DENVER:  Quinion Mitchell, CB Toledo

15. Indianapolis Colts  Team needs: WR, DT, EDGE, IOL, CB, QB, RB  Commentary:  This pick will not be difficult–the best player on the board fills their biggest need.  Colts run to turn the card in, if they still do that.  Pick: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

16. Seattle Seahawks  Team needs: DL, LB, S, IOL, QB, TE, EDGE.  Commentary:  The Seahawks primary need is two guards, and there does not seem to be much help in free agency.  Pick: Troy Fautanu, G, Washington

17. Jacksonville Jaguars  Team needs: EDGE, WR, IOL, DL, CB, IOL, S  Commentary:  The Jags want an Edge player to play opposite Allen, but their biggest need is arguably another WR.  Perhaps a bit of a reach, the Jags will grab LSU’s second best WR halfway through the first round. Pick:  Brian Thomas Jr. WR, LSU

18. Cincinnati Bengals  Team needs: OT, DL, IOL, EDGE, TE, CB, WR  With the addition of a rather substantial RB in the conference, the Bengals have to address a weakness up front on D.  Pick: Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois

19. Los Angeles Rams  Team needs: OT, IOL, CB, S, LB, WR, EDGE  Commentary: I wanted to go with Murphy of Texas to replace Donald, but Edge is harder to find and a good one is sitting there down the street in LA.   Pick:  Laiatu Latu, Edge UCLA

20. Pittsburgh Steelers  Team needs: OT, CB, IOL, LB, S, DL  Commentary:  Mason Cole C was a cap casualty and his replacement was not addressed.  While a T is a possibility here, with 2 new QBs, a Center is a must.  Pick:  Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

21. Miami Dolphins  Team needs: IOL, EDGE, CB, IOL, TE, DL, LB Commentary: Miami has quite a few needs on their front lines.  This could be a DT, but with the OTs available, they are going to fish where they are biting.  Pick: J. C. Latham, OT, Alabama

22. Philadelphia Eagles  Team needs: EDGE, RB, CB, IOL, S, TE, WR  Commentary:  The Eagles would probably prefer edge here, but there are a few solid CBs on the board that should fit nicely.  This CB can come up and stuff the run and play in the box if needed. Pick: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

23. Minnesota Vikings (via Texans)  Team needs: QB, EDGE, CB, DT, RB, EDGE, LB.  Commentary:  With no more picks until the fourth round, Minnesota has no choice if they want to draft the next best QB.  Pick: Michael Pinix, QB, Washington

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)  Team needs: OT, IOL, RB, CB, LB, DT, S  Commentary: Jerry Jones knows that he was not as successful in Dallas until he started drafting OL early.  This T can play either side, and since the OL is in flux a bit, it should be a sound pick.   Pick: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

25. Green Bay Packers (9-8)  Team needs: IOL, S, RB, EDGE, LB, DL, OT  Commentary:  While it may appear that he is a reach because he has shorter than desired arms, Jordan Love needs a LT now.  Between the tall Tyler Guyton and Jordan Morgan, The Packers could take either one and fill that need.  Morgan has more LT experience.   Pick: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers team needs:  IOL, EDGE, LB, CB, S, WR  Commentary: C Ryan Jensen is gone, and the Bucs need to address that position in the draft.   Pick: Graham Barton, C, Duke

27. Arizona Cardinals  Team needs:  CB, DT, EDGE, LB, OG, WR, OT  Commentary:  After trading back from #4 to #6 and getting WR Nabors, the Cardinals use the pick they got from Houston to fill another primary need with a good value.   Pick: Byron Murphy, DT, Texas

28. Buffalo Bills  Team needs: , WR, CB, S, LB, DL  Commentary:  Bills will come away from this draft with a long-term replacement for Gabe Davis and a cornerback who can aid in replacing Tre'Davious White.  The find good value here.  The Pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson. 

29. Detroit Lions  Team needs: IOL, CB, EDGE, DL, WR, S, LB  Commentary: The Lions were very good last season, but their secondary ranked 29th in net yards per pass attempt.  CB is the priority, and if a good one is there at the end of round 1, they will bite.   Pick: Kool Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama.  

30. Baltimore Ravens  Team needs: RB, IOL, DL, CB, EDGE, OT, WR.  Commentary: With the Odell Beckham side show gone, the Ravens would add a larger WR to pair with Zay Flowers.   Pick: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas

31. San Francisco 49ers  Team needs: OT, IOL, EDGE, DL, IOL, S, CB  Commentary:  The NFC champs has several needs on the OL.  Fortunately for them, a T that can play both sides of the OL falls here.  Pick: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma

32. Kansas City Chiefs  Team needs: OT, WR, DL, LB, S, CB, RB  Commentary:  Many will see Florida State wideout Keon Coleman's disappointing 40-yard dash time and be turned away.  However, Coleman's size is a plus-plus trait, and he possesses good short-area explosiveness and could be a great yards-after-catch threat at the next level.  Pick: Keon Coleman, WR Florida State. (This pick could be Ladd or Xavier Worthy--Coleman ran a slow 40)

 

Best Available:  

• Edge Chop Robinson Penn State  (several teams will want to see what it would take to move up for this Edge; if he is there, the Panthers should probably take him)

• OT Kingsley Suamataia, BYU (I see the Commanders wanting to move up for a T to protect their new QB; they can offer picks 40 and 100 to move up to 33)

• QB Bo Nix, Oregon (Raiders offer picks 44 and 77 for #33 and a fifth rounder--Note that Denver does not have a second rounder, so this hurts the trade pressure. IMO, Nix is for the Raiders to select, unless they are going with Minshew. Seahawks also could be in play for Nix, playing him behind Smith for a year. Nix was big in that area of the country)

• WR Ladd McConkly 

33.  Carolina Panthers  Team needs: EDGE, WR, G, CB, TE, RB

[Khyber53]

So many needs, and we are in the place where BPA is the only way to go. Chop or Ladd could really make their place on this team quickly.

 

[Khyber53]

8 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

So many needs, and we are in the place where BPA is the only way to go. Chop or Ladd could really make their place on this team quickly.

 

Let me answer my own statement here:

ANYONE can make their own place on this team quickly considering how low effort, low grit and low drive most of our players (and coaches) showed last season. This has literally become a team where it really could be that anyone could earn a starting spot. Anyone drafted here should come in with that mindset and just try to out work anyone around them. I don't think more than one or two players kept over have their names chiseled in stone for a starting position. 

And UDFAs have a shot here, too. 

[MHS831]

4 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

Let me answer my own statement here:

ANYONE can make their own place on this team quickly considering how low effort, low grit and low drive most of our players (and coaches) showed last season. This has literally become a team where it really could be that anyone could earn a starting spot. Anyone drafted here should come in with that mindset and just try to out work anyone around them. I don't think more than one or two players kept over have their names chiseled in stone for a starting position. 

And UDFAs have a shot here, too. 

Let's not forget that we also will have first opportunity to claim players off waivers. 

[Khyber53]

10 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Let's not forget that we also will have first opportunity to claim players off waivers. 

It's a small boon, but we really can't afford to not have it. Let's hope for some pennies from heaven then!

 

[MHS831]

My new, "I just saw a video that changed everything for me about Edge" selection at #33.  See the strand I started in the draft page---Jonah Ellis.  Utah--a sleeper I would take at #33 and laugh at doubters.

[45catfan]

40 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

My new, "I just saw a video that changed everything for me about Edge" selection at #33.  See the strand I started in the draft page---Jonah Ellis.  Utah--a sleeper I would take at #33 and laugh at doubters.

I like him too, not at #33 though.  In a trade back or at #39, sure.  Since we have pick #39 now, I'm firmly in trade back mode unless a steal is on the board as day two starts.  I can't envision a MUST have player at #33 that wouldn't have the same caliber of player six picks later still on the board.  Pick up the extra selection in the mid rounds.  That's where I would take an IOL, specifically a center.

[MHS831]

UPDATED----Now I feel very confident that Minnesota will use both firsts to move up to #4.  That changes a lot.  Here is the revised version--

1. Chicago Bears Team needs: QB, IOL, WR, EDGE, DT, S, IOL  Commentary: Obviously the pick will now be a QB, and it is fairly certain that it will be Caleb Williams.  Pick: Caleb Williams QB, USC

2. Washington Commanders Team needs: QB, IOL, EDGE, CB, LB, OT, WR  Commentary:  The pick will be QB, and there is some debate about the style of QB the Commanders will draft.  After signing a backup, it may have been a tell:  Pick:  Jayden Daniels QB, LSU

3. New England Patriots Team needs: QB, OT, WR, TE, LB, DL, OT  Commentary:  The Patriots are probably going to be happy with QB#3 falling into their laps.  Pick: Drake Maye, QB, UNC

4. Minnesota Vikings (Trade)  Commentary:  I predict a possible trade with the Vikings for the Vikings 2 first-rounders in 2024 (11, 23) NOTE: The Vikings do not have another pick until round 4, so they could work out some future picks to get back into day 2….. Pick: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan

5. Los Angeles Chargers Team needs: CB, DL, RB, LB, TE, OT, IOL, WR  Commentary:  If the Giants make the move they almost have to make, the Chargers probably run to the podium with their pick–the best WR to come out in quite some time.  If the Cards sit tight and take Harrison, this pick becomes a bidding war between the Giants and Minnesota–so the Giants might get off cheaper dealing with #4 than #5.  Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State.

6. New York Giants  Team needs: IOL, WR, EDGE, DL, RB, CB  Commentary:  The Giants just signed Jones to a long term deal, like it or not, so they can take a developmental QB in round 2 if that is what they want to do. While moving up for McCarthy was my original thought, the Vikings are hungrier and they will spend both firsts to move up to #4 for a QB with a questionable first round grade.  To me, that is what they have to do, while the Giants have options.  Pick: Malik Nabors, WR, LSU

7. Tennessee Titans Team needs: OT, IOL, WR, CB, EDGE, TE, DL, RB  Commentary:  The Titans’ biggest need is probably OT, and there are 8 teams who have a similar interest.  While it is possible that a team with a need at T or WR makes offers to trade up, I take the best OT if I am the GM.  Pick:  Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame.

8. Atlanta Falcons Team needs:  EDGE, IOL, WR, CB, LB, DL  Commentary:  The Falcons can focus on the defense and their biggest need is for an Edge.  Pick: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

9. Chicago Bears Team needs:  IOL, WR, EDGE, DL, S, IOL  Commentary:  With the new QB, the Bears could go two ways here.  They could decide that Moore is the #1 and they can wait to get a WR in round 2, but their second biggest need, edge, was addressed with Montez Sweat last year.  They will give Caleb another weapon.  Pick:  Rome Odunze, WR Washington

10. New York Jets  Team needs: OT, IOL, OT, DL, QB, RB, WR  Commentary:  There is a reason you do not mock draft before free agency–the Jets signed 2 veteran OTs (Smith, Moses) and will probably start them.  With the top 3 WRs off the board, the Jets upgrade tremendously with an offensive weapon just as dangerous.  Pick:  Brock Bowers, TE Georgia.

11. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE FROM VIKINGS)  Team needs: CB, DT, EDGE, LB, OG, WR, OT.   Commentary: Minnesota has the #11 and #23 pick in the draft, and #11 will go to McCarthy if he lasts this long;  Penix would be a huge reach here and at #23.  Denver and Vegas are without starting QBs, unless Minshew is the starter.  Does that force the Vikings to take Penix maybe a round too soon?  While many mockers are taking an edge here, I do not, and they will hope the #23 pick can be for a QB.  The Pick:  Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

12. Denver Broncos Team needs: QB, DL, IOL, S, CB, LB, EDGE  Commentary:  Surtain gets a CB on the other side.  Pick; Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama

13. Las Vegas Raiders Team needs: QB, IOL, DL, CB, OT, LB, RB.  Minshew is not the long term answer, but unless Vegas rolls the dice and goes after Lefty Penix, I don’t see QB right now.  The choice is between OT and CB, and OT is deep in the first round.  Decent CB talent can be found later.  The Pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

14. New Orleans Saints Team needs: IOL, EDGE, DL, WR, LB, CB, RB, TE, Best value here: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State 

15. Indianapolis Colts  Team needs: WR, DT, EDGE, IOL, CB, QB, RB  Commentary:  This pick will not be difficult–the best player on their board fills their biggest need.  Colts run to turn the card in, if they still do that.  Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. WR, LSU

16. Seattle Seahawks  Team needs: DL, LB, S, IOL, QB, TE, EDGE.  Commentary:  The Seahawks primary need is two guards, and there does not seem to be much help in free agency.  Pick: Troy Fautanu, G, Washington

17. Jacksonville Jaguars  Team needs: EDGE, WR, IOL, DL, CB, IOL, S  Commentary: Gotta get an edge to become scary on D. Pick:  Laiatu Latu, Edge UCLA

18. Cincinnati Bengals  Team needs: OT, DL, IOL, EDGE, TE, CB, WR  With the addition of a rather substantial RB in the conference, the Bengals have to keep Burrow healthy.  Pick: J. C. Latham, OT, Alabama

19. Los Angeles Rams  Team needs: OT, IOL, CB, S, LB, WR, EDGE  Commentary: I wanted to go with Murphy of Texas to replace Donald, so I did.   Pick:  Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

20. Pittsburgh Steelers  Team needs: OT, CB, IOL, LB, S, DL  Commentary:  Mason Cole C was a cap casualty and his replacement was not addressed.  While a T is possible here, with 2 new QBs, a Center is a must.  Pick:  Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

21. Miami Dolphins  Team needs: IOL, EDGE, CB, IOL, TE, DL, LB Commentary: One of the best CBs falls to the fish and they bite.  Pick: Quinion Mitchell, CB Toledo

22. Philadelphia Eagles  Team needs: EDGE, RB, CB, IOL, S, TE, WR  Commentary:  The Eagles would probably prefer edge here, but there are a few solid CBs on the board that should fit nicely.  This CB can come up and stuff the run and play in the box if needed. Pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson. 

23. Arizona Cardinals (via Texans and Vikings)  Team needs: CB, DT, EDGE, LB, OG, WR, OT Commentary: Corner is a huge need, and this kid from Iowa is special, can play any DB position.  Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

24. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)  Team needs: OT, IOL, RB, CB, LB, DT, S  Commentary: Jerry Jones knows that he was not as successful in Dallas until he started drafting OL early.  This T can play either side, and since the OL is in flux a bit, it should be a sound pick.   Pick: Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

25. Green Bay Packers (9-8)  Team needs: IOL, S, RB, EDGE, LB, DL, OT  Commentary:  While it may appear that he is a reach because he has shorter than desired arms, Jordan Love needs a LT now.  Between the tall Tyler Guyton and Jordan Morgan, The Packers could take either one and fill that need.  Morgan has more LT experience.   Pick: Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers team needs:  IOL, EDGE, LB, CB, S, WR  Commentary: C Ryan Jensen is gone, and the Bucs need to address that position in the draft.   Pick: Graham Barton, C, Duke

27. Arizona Cardinals  Team needs:  CB, DT, EDGE, LB, OG, WR, OT  Commentary:  After trading back from #4 to #11 and #23, the Cardinals use the pick they got from Houston to fill another primary need with a good value.   Pick: Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois

28. Buffalo Bills  Team needs: , WR, CB, S, LB, DL  Commentary:  Bills will come away from this draft with a long-term replacement for Gabe Davis and a cornerback who can aid in replacing Tre'Davious White.  The find good value here.  The Pick: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas

29. Detroit Lions  Team needs: IOL, CB, EDGE, DL, WR, S, LB  Commentary: The Lions were very good last season, but their secondary ranked 29th in net yards per pass attempt.  CB is the priority, and if a good one is there at the end of round 1, they will bite.   Pick: Kool Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama.  

30. Baltimore Ravens  Team needs: RB, IOL, DL, CB, EDGE, OT, WR.  Commentary: With the Odell Beckham side show gone, the Ravens would add a WR to pair with Zay Flowers.   Pick: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

31. San Francisco 49ers  Team needs: OT, IOL, EDGE, DL, IOL, S, CB  Commentary:  The NFC champs has several needs on the OL.  Fortunately for them, a T that can play both sides of the OL falls here.  Pick: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma

32. Kansas City Chiefs  Team needs: OT, WR, DL, LB, S, CB, RB  Commentary:  This has to be Wide Receiver. Just has to be.  Pick:  Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

 

33 Trade possibilities:  Denver, the Raiders, and maybe the Giants are likely going to make offers in order to move up for Penix or Nix–but I think Penix is going to be the target.

• Raiders:  44, 77 (roughly) to move up.

• Broncos:  76, 2025 second-round pick

• Giants: 47, 2025 second-round pick

• Eagles need an edge, and Chop Robinson will be there at 33.  They have 2 second-rounders later in round 2.  They have very few picks.  I could see the following:  Eagles 50, 53 to Panthers for 33, 101, 141