Pump the brakes

[jtm]

2 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Yes, but the draft has to have the answer at QB---early indications are that the QB group next season could be the worst since the Kenny Pickett parade rode through.

This would be the Panther's luck.  Let's hope Bryce works out otherwise it is going to be a very long road before the Panthers are relevant again.  

[Ghostofdelhomme]

Poor Bryce is Magic without Kareem

[LinvilleGorge]

On 3/18/2024 at 2:41 PM, MHS831 said:

Of course there are ways to overcome this, but when you look at QB salaries, Bryce cannot expect us to be hiring $20m guards and Tackles to keep him from soiling his pants.  

If I am GM, I am going to take a look at a formula...How do we have 6 offensive players on rookie deals at any given time?
1. I would not have a RB on a second contract.  Full Stop.

2. I would invest in OTs and Center. Only 1 OT (like now) on a second contract. With that formula, you would change out an OT after 8 to 10 years.  A center should be a QB's sidekick, like Goose and Maverick.  I would have TEs on rookie deals most of the time, and I would have 1 WR on a big deal (my #1).  INVEST IN SCOUTING instead of Free Agency.

3.  If there is a strong draft at a position and you have a player who is beyond his peak or prime, don't fall in love with him---trade him. 

4.  If the QB is not elite by the time he has played his fourth or fifth year, cut him loose.  Too many teams overpay for a QB that is never taking them to the promise land.  Cousins is a good example.  That leg humping munchkin in Arizona. 

I hate to break the news to you, but a big part of Morgan and much of the scouting department remaining intact is because this organization (i.e. Tepper) is still all in on Bryce Young.

[*FreeFua*]

On 3/18/2024 at 6:15 AM, MHS831 said:

I am not going to say it again on here; we need to use Bryce's assets and not try to fit him into a system.  We need a system designed for him.  Bringing in the 2 guards is a start.  HOWEVER...

To me, the successful conversion of Bryce Young comes with a huge price tag.  If we turn it around and Bryce plays well because we have an offensive line that makes $90m, he is going to want $50m and the WRs will demand another $50m.  Not even mentioning RBs and TEs, but we will need $200m just for the offense at this rate.   I see this process as a long term bust--if it works, you are screwed because it requires a stud OL and stud WRs.  OTC Right now, before all free agents and draft picks are signed and a QB on a rookie deal posts the following: 

• Offense: $133,819,164
• Defense: $62,906,915
• Special: $6,431,168

If Bryce was a veteran on a second contract, you could add $40m to this figure.  We have no #1 WR and no stud TE. As you can see, the Offensive budget needs to be around $130m.  We are over that now--with QB on a rookie contract.

The only way to do this is by having 3 OL on a rookie contract at all times, and maybe only 2 WRs on second contracts. 

I agree about getting Bryce in a system that fits him. That much is obvious. I’m not sure Canales is that guy. NFL Network was showing an old Zona game last night and Kingsbury had Kyler moving around a lot, it was refreshing to see. Canales/Baker seemed to benefit A LOT from Mike Evans last year. We don’t have that guy where defenses rotate for. It’s vital we get a WR1 now imo but it’s not happening. 
 

But to the actual point of your post with the money allocation. The two 2nd rounders we have and next years 1st rounder… HAVE to be hits. Or this entire thing is toast. Next years WR class is nice and there’s a couple big time tackles that should available at our pick (I’m assuming top 10). 

With that in mind. I’m not opposed to drafting a center at 33 or 39 because we’re going to need guys on rookie deals. 

Ultimately so much has to go right that there’s little to no chance this works. This organization can’t draft worth sh!t and they kept their scouting department intact. When you move up to get your QB your window immediately starts due to the salary cap. Having to do a complete tear down AFTER year 1 leaves us AT BEST a 1-2 year window if they make zero further mistakes (which obviously isn’t happening).

[MHS831]

34 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

I agree about getting Bryce in a system that fits him. That much is obvious. I’m not sure Canales is that guy. NFL Network was showing an old Zona game last night and Kingsbury had Kyler moving around a lot, it was refreshing to see. Canales/Baker seemed to benefit A LOT from Mike Evans last year. We don’t have that guy where defenses rotate for. It’s vital we get a WR1 now imo but it’s not happening. 
 

But to the actual point of your post with the money allocation. The two 2nd rounders we have and next years 1st rounder… HAVE to be hits. Or this entire thing is toast. Next years WR class is nice and there’s a couple big time tackles that should available at our pick (I’m assuming top 10). 

With that in mind. I’m not opposed to drafting a center at 33 or 39 because we’re going to need guys on rookie deals. 

Ultimately so much has to go right that there’s little to no chance this works. This organization can’t draft worth sh!t and they kept their scouting department intact. When you move up to get your QB your window immediately starts due to the salary cap. Having to do a complete tear down AFTER year 1 leaves us AT BEST a 1-2 year window if they make zero further mistakes (which obviously isn’t happening).

I try to stay optimistic, But Moose was the last time we found WR value in the second round.  Well, its going to happen, this would be the year.  I still think these WRs are a bit hyped.   The #33 pick in this draft should be comparable to a late first rounder in other drafts because there are so many players who would qualify.  I read somewhere that this draft had 23-24 first round talents.

To put that in perspective, former Giants GM Jerry Reese estimated the average is 15.  It can range as high as 20.  He defines a first round talent as any player who would appear in the first round on every team's board.  That is a pretty good measure, if we only knew their boards. 

Somebody is going to drop.  That means we can get a first round talent (with so many needs, we should have a plan for each scenario) or we would have about 18 hours to listen to offers--maybe our best option--unless that player with a true first round talent at WR or Edge falls.

But yes, you speak the truth my friend.

Edited March 22 by MHS831

[WhoKnows]

On 3/18/2024 at 12:17 PM, jtm said:

The rookie salary cap is designed for teams to be able to move on from a high pick that doesn't work out.  If Bryce doesn't show considerable improvement this year, the Panthers will likely draft another QB next year.  No one should write off a rookie QB in year 1, but after year 2 is a different story.  I'm pulling for Bryce.

I think Bryce will have 3 years minimum because the 2025 draft is shaping up as more similar to 2022 than 2023/2024 (prospect wise). If we aren’t set on a 2025 QB then we should grab whatever studios available with our 2025 1st and keep building the rest of the team out and not wasting cap so we can roll a big chunk over to when we are decent. If Bryce isn’t the guy, we’ll continue to get high picks and hopefully get that guy.

[WhoKnows]

46 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

I agree about getting Bryce in a system that fits him. That much is obvious. I’m not sure Canales is that guy. NFL Network was showing an old Zona game last night and Kingsbury had Kyler moving around a lot, it was refreshing to see. Canales/Baker seemed to benefit A LOT from Mike Evans last year. We don’t have that guy where defenses rotate for. It’s vital we get a WR1 now imo but it’s not happening. 
 

But to the actual point of your post with the money allocation. The two 2nd rounders we have and next years 1st rounder… HAVE to be hits. Or this entire thing is toast. Next years WR class is nice and there’s a couple big time tackles that should available at our pick (I’m assuming top 10). 

With that in mind. I’m not opposed to drafting a center at 33 or 39 because we’re going to need guys on rookie deals. 

Ultimately so much has to go right that there’s little to no chance this works. This organization can’t draft worth sh!t and they kept their scouting department intact. When you move up to get your QB your window immediately starts due to the salary cap. Having to do a complete tear down AFTER year 1 leaves us AT BEST a 1-2 year window if they make zero further mistakes (which obviously isn’t happening).

I’ve said the same. This draft and next draft are huge. I’d even add our 3rd at 65 to 33/39 and next year’s 1st. It should be a solid player and hopefully a starter as well. Normally, you can’t expect 4 above average to stud starters in 4 picks but we’re at that point where we have to draft well or our team is going to be poo for an entire decade. We’ve just dumped CMC, Moore, Burns, Luvu and several 1sts and 2nds the past couple seasons and we’ve been bad for 6 seasons. If we keep drafting Iky’s and TMJ/Mingos with our top picks, we will be a decade long team with a ceiling of 7 wins.

This is a deep draft and god willing, teams will draft the 2nd tier of QBs in the 1st to drop down more guys to 33/39.

I hate to think back but pick 19 from the Rams would have been a sweet ass pick to have right now, especially with the TE we could have picked up at the top of the 2nd last year and two 1sts in 2025. Still can’t believe we gave the keys to the car to the worst GM ever. I’ll be done thinking about that once the draft is over, but it will vexes me looking at mocks.

[*FreeFua*]

6 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I try to stay optimistic, But Moose was the last time we found WR value in the second round.  Well, its going to happen, this would be the year.  I still think these WRs are a bit hyped.   The #33 pick in this draft should be comparable to a late first rounder in other drafts because there are so many players who would qualify.  I read somewhere that this draft had 23-24 first round talents.

To put that in perspective, former Giants GM Jerry Reese estimated the average is 15.  It can range as high as 20.  He defines a first round talent as any player who would appear in the first round on every team's board.  That is a pretty good measure, if we only knew their boards. 

Somebody is going to drop.  That means we can get a first round talent (with so many needs, we should have a plan for each scenario) or we would have about 18 hours to listen to offers--maybe our best option--unless that player with a true first round talent at WR or Edge falls.

But yes, you speak the truth my friend.

Question…

Since we agree that money is going to need to be spent on offense to surround Bryce in order for him/this team to be successful…

What do you do with Derrick Brown?

Are you spending 100 million on ONE player on defense?

[CPcavedweller]

On 3/18/2024 at 4:45 AM, jfra78 said:

I hope Bryce turns out to be good, if not I hope we move on quickly

This is his last season as a Panther. You can put that as your signature and book it. We will be picking Top 3 next year and will move on. 

[CRA]

21 hours ago, Ghostofdelhomme said:

Poor Bryce is Magic without Kareem

2024 Panthers

had that Muggsy to Kelly Tripucka magic

[CPF4LIFE]

Moving on can be real subjective because it could mean different things. Right now i just want somebody capable to lead the teams to wins when its shown Bryce cant get it done for us, that doesnt necessarily have to be a new top drafted QB because that clearly all depends who is coming out and who is actually worth that status. Just give me a guy who is better than bryce right now so the games are atleast worth watching.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, *FreeFua* said:

Question…

Since we agree that money is going to need to be spent on offense to surround Bryce in order for him/this team to be successful…

What do you do with Derrick Brown?

Are you spending 100 million on ONE player on defense?

I hope someone else will answer this because trying to keep up with the finances is something I have yet to figure out.  I THINK we will deal with it after we sign our 53 and use the 2025 cap room to help get that done--but I am with you---I would like to know the best strategy.

If the question is, "Do you pay a defensive lineman that kinda money?"  Then I would say that we probably can get away with it since we did not re-sign Burns.

I think this offseason is about surrounding Burns--maybe not because they think they can make him great as much as they want to find out what they have in him. 

To me, Brown is worth $100m if we have a G making that much.

 

[ForJimmy]

27 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I hope someone else will answer this because trying to keep up with the finances is something I have yet to figure out.  I THINK we will deal with it after we sign our 53 and use the 2025 cap room to help get that done--but I am with you---I would like to know the best strategy.

If the question is, "Do you pay a defensive lineman that kinda money?"  Then I would say that we probably can get away with it since we did not re-sign Burns.

I think this offseason is about surrounding Burns--maybe not because they think they can make him great as much as they want to find out what they have in him. 

To me, Brown is worth $100m if we have a G making that much.

 

I think Brown is the anchor of the defense so yes he is worth it.  Also the cap is increasing by a good bit so $20 million next year doesn't hurt as bad as $20 million in previous.  Hell we had 10 QBs making over $40 million with some clearing $50.  

The Hunt contract is more like a 3 year $63 million contract looking at the guarantees and buyout potential.  We did overpay but we currently have to in order to attract top FAs and I believe out staff wants an OL THIS year so they can properly evaluate Bryce.  We can also afford to overpay for some of these positions because we don't have an expensive QB eating up a chunk of the cap.  So far Tillis is keeping it clean and not pushing much cap down the road with restructures.  We still need a center (probably) and another weapon or two to put a functional offense on the field and make some real evaluations.