There are a lot of edge/olb type guys that could be available at 33 or 39

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, jfra78 said:

Teams meet with players they don't pick and pick players they don't meet with all the time

I know, right?  However, I have learned that making things quantifiable often makes them more understandable.  So this brings up an interesting point. Instead of just generalizing something everyone knows or believes, how can we make that measurable?   Let's say there are 300 players in the talent pool.  The Panthers have 30 in for visits, and the interviewed 30 more players at the combine, SR bowl, etc.  I looked back over the last 10 years, and it seems fairly safe to say that we had an average of just under 7 picks and we drafted at least 2 players (on average) that we met with.  That means that approximately 30% of the players we draft were players we formally met with at the combine or had in for a visit.  Now if you take a look at the players (on average) that we did not meet with at the combine or visited, then it is safe to assume that approximately 5 of 7 were not formally visited, approximately 70%. 

If you consider that about 30% of the Panther picks come from the 60 players the Panthers interviewed or visited (combine, visits), and 70% of the picks come from the much larger pool of the rest of the players in the draft who did not visit,   Then a player has about a 5% chance of being picked by the Panthers if he visited or met with the Panthers.  While a majority of players chosen did not meet with the Panthers, the approximate odds of being picked by the Panthers falls to 2.5%.  Therefore, a player who the Panthers met with at the Combine or visited is twice as likely to be picked by the Panthers than a player who did not have formal contact as described herein.

 

 

Edited March 16 by MHS831

[Zen24]

id rather get a center.  Bust rate seems high on olbs in 2nd

[top dawg]

3 hours ago, Growl said:

the hit ratio on these high second (and late first) edge types feels like it’s awful, I’ve become really leery of it 

Is it? Where is your evidence? 

Honestly, the hit rate doesn't look great from the first round.

 

In order to try and get the most up-to-date info, I chose an IDP website. Sure it's fantasy football and he speaks in those terms, but most of the time there is a correlation between production in fantasy football and the NFL.

 

"But how do we definite a hit? I must admit, I scrutinize my hits pretty rigorously. Going back to 2018, there are some obvious hits like Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, Shaquille Leonard, Devin White, and Brian Burns. While it’s difficult to set a standard across the board—especially when dealing with players drafted in 2022—most of the players I counted as hits either finished a season as a top 30 player at their position or they have shown enough potential early on to inspire optimism.

"Conversely, if we’re defining a hit, we also have to define a miss. Calling someone a “miss” at this point doesn’t mean their careers are over. It just means they’re either trending down or aren’t trustworthy in our lineups (or on our rosters) right now. We already mentioned Harry, but think about Johnathan Abram, Jalen Reagor,  Jerry Jeudy, Isaiah Simmons, and Tua Tagovailoa. We haven’t lost all hope for these players, but we’re not as excited now as we were when we first took these guys.

"This is not an exact science. I might call someone a hit now which we later see as a miss and vice versa. But I think this is a helpful exercise as we approach draft season, one that I’ve always wanted to do. So that’s what we’re going to do! Below, I’ll go through the history of our main league’s rookie draft dating back to 2018. We’ll see how many players were selected, in which rounds, and how many were hits."

Now, I will admit that this dude's definition of "hit" is tough (top 30 at their position), but you get an idea.  Being that we're talking basically about pass rushers, here are those numbers:

 

Defensive End

10/29, hit rate of 34%

3/10 were 1st-round picks

Just 10 good defensive ends drafted in the last 5 years—that’s crazy!  Yes, the hit percentage is high but that’s in part because so few DEs were selected. One reason for the low total is that RSO (our league provider) labels a lot of edge rushers as LBs coming out of college. But it also shows that we’re not as willing to take swings on guys like Drake Jackson and George Karlaftis. This position is hard to play and it takes time for young guys to develop, so I’m sure if we revisited this article in 5 years, the hit rate would be different. But early on, good luck finding the next Maxx Crosby.

 

Linebacker
14/44, hit rate of 31.8%

0/14 were 1st-round picks

4/14 were 3rd-round picks

We all love linebackers and we all love the rookie draft. But is it safe to mix those two loves? Well, at least not in the first round. If I’m going to grab an LB in the rookie draft, I’m going to wait. We’ve seen guys like Leonard and White get snatched up in the middle rounds and return massive value. The same can’t be said for guys like Devin Bush. But at least if you take a later swing, it doesn’t hurt you as much if it doesn’t work out. And while the hit rate is similar to WR, the LB landscape changes so much year to year that I’m tempted to source my LBs off waivers instead.

 

And, here are his general numbers.

 

1st Round: 34/60, hit rate of 56%

2nd Round: 20/60, hit rate of 33.3%

3rd Round: 12/60, hit rate of 20%

4th Round: 17/60, hit rate of 28.3%

5th Round: 9/60, hit rate of 15%

 

https://www.theidpshow.com/p/examining-the-rookie-hit-rate-2018

So, I'd say that if you know what you're doing (and maybe lucky), then it's quite possible to get an EDGE worth a damn at 33 (and 39, really) as compared to getting one in the first. Sure, it's easier in the first, but it's fairly easy to screw it up also.

[carpanfan96]

4 hours ago, RumHam said:

we just signed two edges what are you talking about? If anything what's the ILB looking like?

We signed two rotational players at edge. That’s it. Still need two starters at edge

[Panthero]

Just now, carpanfan96 said:

We signed two rotational players at edge. That’s it. Still need two starters at edge

That's my thinking, at minimum we need one guy who can play a ton of minutes. 

[CPF4LIFE]

I really like mohamma Kamara....he jumped out in that Colorado game and he has been consistently good. If it wasn't for his size he might be a top 10 pick. 

[Mother Grabber]

3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

We're the Panthers. Our hit rate on 2nd rounders period like

 

this particular gm, hc, etc have not been in a draft together. what’s happened with past FO teams is irrelevant.

[csx]

6 hours ago, bandu said:

yeah that's why the Giants paid s king ransom for Burns & the Rams were willing to part with 2 first round picks for his services

Then the Rams traded down and took Bryron Young who had the same amount of sacks, more tackles, and more pressures than Burns.

[LinvilleGorge]

2 hours ago, Mother Grabber said:

this particular gm, hc, etc have not been in a draft together. what’s happened with past FO teams is irrelevant.

How many times have we been through this cycle? It sure is quite the persistent trend.

[Basbear]

My big issue with 33rd is teams like the ravens, chiefs, 49ers, blowboys(don't laugh, they been drafting great for years) alllll picks just before...... So any WR leftd over, wasn't the top guy on teams that draft well. Like chiefs need a WRs and pass on Mitchell or Coleman, man that makes me want to do the same....

I almost want to go off script. 

[Panthero]

23 minutes ago, Basbear said:

My big issue with 33rd is teams like the ravens, chiefs, 49ers, blowboys(don't laugh, they been drafting great for years) alllll picks just before...... So any WR leftd over, wasn't the top guy on teams that draft well. Like chiefs need a WRs and pass on Mitchell or Coleman, man that makes me want to do the same....

I almost want to go off script. 

Good point. But WR is one of the most drafted positions, so it's a bit misleading when a lot go in a round. They often do, since the league became so pass heavy. NOW there aren't many number 1s out there so you are still correct. Just adding some nuance. 

[Growl]

6 hours ago, top dawg said:

Is it? Where is your evidence? 

Honestly, the hit rate doesn't look great from the first round.

 

In order to try and get the most up-to-date info, I chose an IDP website. Sure it's fantasy football and he speaks in those terms, but most of the time there is a correlation between production in fantasy football and the NFL.

 

"But how do we definite a hit? I must admit, I scrutinize my hits pretty rigorously. Going back to 2018, there are some obvious hits like Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, Shaquille Leonard, Devin White, and Brian Burns. While it’s difficult to set a standard across the board—especially when dealing with players drafted in 2022—most of the players I counted as hits either finished a season as a top 30 player at their position or they have shown enough potential early on to inspire optimism.

"Conversely, if we’re defining a hit, we also have to define a miss. Calling someone a “miss” at this point doesn’t mean their careers are over. It just means they’re either trending down or aren’t trustworthy in our lineups (or on our rosters) right now. We already mentioned Harry, but think about Johnathan Abram, Jalen Reagor,  Jerry Jeudy, Isaiah Simmons, and Tua Tagovailoa. We haven’t lost all hope for these players, but we’re not as excited now as we were when we first took these guys.

"This is not an exact science. I might call someone a hit now which we later see as a miss and vice versa. But I think this is a helpful exercise as we approach draft season, one that I’ve always wanted to do. So that’s what we’re going to do! Below, I’ll go through the history of our main league’s rookie draft dating back to 2018. We’ll see how many players were selected, in which rounds, and how many were hits."

Now, I will admit that this dude's definition of "hit" is tough (top 30 at their position), but you get an idea.  Being that we're talking basically about pass rushers, here are those numbers:

 

Defensive End

10/29, hit rate of 34%

3/10 were 1st-round picks

Just 10 good defensive ends drafted in the last 5 years—that’s crazy!  Yes, the hit percentage is high but that’s in part because so few DEs were selected. One reason for the low total is that RSO (our league provider) labels a lot of edge rushers as LBs coming out of college. But it also shows that we’re not as willing to take swings on guys like Drake Jackson and George Karlaftis. This position is hard to play and it takes time for young guys to develop, so I’m sure if we revisited this article in 5 years, the hit rate would be different. But early on, good luck finding the next Maxx Crosby.

 

Linebacker
14/44, hit rate of 31.8%

0/14 were 1st-round picks

4/14 were 3rd-round picks

We all love linebackers and we all love the rookie draft. But is it safe to mix those two loves? Well, at least not in the first round. If I’m going to grab an LB in the rookie draft, I’m going to wait. We’ve seen guys like Leonard and White get snatched up in the middle rounds and return massive value. The same can’t be said for guys like Devin Bush. But at least if you take a later swing, it doesn’t hurt you as much if it doesn’t work out. And while the hit rate is similar to WR, the LB landscape changes so much year to year that I’m tempted to source my LBs off waivers instead.

 

And, here are his general numbers.

 

1st Round: 34/60, hit rate of 56%

2nd Round: 20/60, hit rate of 33.3%

3rd Round: 12/60, hit rate of 20%

4th Round: 17/60, hit rate of 28.3%

5th Round: 9/60, hit rate of 15%

 

https://www.theidpshow.com/p/examining-the-rookie-hit-rate-2018

So, I'd say that if you know what you're doing (and maybe lucky), then it's quite possible to get an EDGE worth a damn at 33 (and 39, really) as compared to getting one in the first. Sure, it's easier in the first, but it's fairly easy to screw it up also.

I mean i thought it was pretty clear from the verbiage I used that I wasn’t laying down hard science but, as you have noted “top 30 at position” seems like a pretty loose definition of success, as does someone’s mere presence on an nfl roster 

I'm not the type to overrate later picks needing to be stars but I’d define a late first/early second rounder as someone I really want to be a real quality starter

Edited March 16 by Growl

[frankw]

Draft a top offensive talent and keep it pushing.

[Basbear]

BPA and hoes its either WR, edge, or C