With the talk of moving in the draft, a look back at recent Panthers draft day trades

[Samuel L. Jackson]

Alright... I, along with many others, have speculated that with seemingly limited options, the Panthers plan to do some movement in the draft this year.

Currently, we have one pick each in the second, third, and fourth rounds; 3 in the sixth (one at the beginning and two at the end (compensatory/cannot be traded)); and 2 in the seventh (one in the middle, and one at the end (compensatory/cannot be traded))... That is a total of 8 picks, with 5 of them being pretty much at the ass end of the draft...

In recent years, draft day has been a day that the Panthers have made bold moves to get guys they absolutely want, while also realizing that they sometimes have the ability to slide down a little and pick up more valuable talent in quantity later than their original picks would have allowed...

In 2007, the Panthers allowed the Jets to trade up and select Darrelle Revis at #14 overall while sliding down to #25 to select Jon Beason, arguably our defensive leader, and one of the best MLBs in the league. This trade also got us pick #59 in the second round which we used to select arguably one of the best Centers in the league in Ryan Kalil, and pick #164 which we gambled with, and pretty much lost, on Tim Shaw. We sweetened the deal for the Jets as we threw in pick #191, which they later traded to Green Bay who selected Korey Hall. On paper, the Panthers lost value in this trade to a total deficit of about 50 points (according to the trade value chart, which would be a late 4th rounder), but on the field, we got 2 Pro Bowlers. Not bad, Panthers...

In 2008, we drafted Jonathan Stewart with our first round pick, but then we sent our second rounder (#43), fourth rounder (#109), and 2009's first rounder (#28) to Philly to move back into the first round to select Jeff Otah. Philly traded away pick #43 to the Vikings (who selected Tyrell Johnson), and eventually 2009's #28 and one of their own picks to Buffalo for Jason Peters. The only pick remaining from our trade, #109, they used on Mike McGlynn. We ended up with a stud RT in return for a great Safety, a backup OL, and a Center (Eric Wood, selected by the Bills at #28 in 2009) who showed promise and versatility before sustaining a season ending leg-break. On paper, the Panthers were on the losing end yet again, this time by a deficit of 321 points. I'll call this one even, although I think Otah has already had a better career for his position considering the success of our run game.

Last year, we sent our 2010 first rounder to the 49ers in return for picks #43 (Everette Brown) and 111 (Mike Goodson). Again, on paper, the Panthers got the losing end of this trade pretty bad according to the value chart (408 points worse), but it is still kind of early to judge the on-the-field production of Brown and Goodson. We'll also have to compare them to who San Fran gets at #17 this year.

Also, we traded our pick #202 (TE, Brandon Meyers) in the sixth round for picks #216 in the seventh (Captain Munnerlyn) and pick #175 in the sixth round this year. On paper, this trade was to the slight advantage of the Panthers, and I'd say on the field we got a steal in Captain. Even if pick #175 doesn't work out this year, he has clearly already outperformed Meyers (4 catches, 19 yards)...

Fast forward to April...

In a draft that is pretty talent heavy in the early and middle rounds, I can't help but predict that the Panthers will use next year's first rounder, and possibly more, to move up to get a guy they want this year. Who that guy is is highly debatable, and I will save that speculation for my Mock Draft thread.

The toughest thing is going to be waiting to see... I don't know that much movement will come before draft day itself, as we'll want to see who starts coming off the board and to where. That will likely dictate our movement, and could lead to movement in either direction, really.

If it is a WR that is our number one priority like much of the prognosticators believe, we'll have to wait at least until the early 20's and see if he is still there. If we want him bad enough, we'll likely have to do a trade similar to the one that brought us Otah, although not as sacrificial to our 2010 draft, to jump teams that might take him in the late first/early second. If the guy we want is there and teams are asking too much, we'll likely slide down in the second to pickup an extra 4th or a pick in the 5th...

Maybe we'll get extremely lucky and our guy will slip past the Bucs at pick #3 in the second round and we'll jump up with Kansas City (who has another second rounder) at #4 and ****** him up. This would be our dream scenario as we could also probably gain a fourth and a fifth with next year's first rounder alone.

There still remains the chance that we'll get another second rounder anyways, should someone sign Richard Marshall to an offer sheet and us decline to match it... That would also open up a vacancy at CB though, and one we'd have to address at some point in the draft...

On draft day, a lot depends on how bad we want someone. If it is someone like Golden Tate or Sean Weatherspoon, it will test our patience to sit back and wait. If it is someone that we are more confident has a chance to slide even further (like Bay-Bay, no matter how much I don't want him) we'll likely hang tight and roll the dice on them being there without us having to move.

Another factor will be money. Jerry Richardson is one of the voices of the owners, and a big argument between the players' and owners' unions is rookie salary. If JR is intent on sending a message in that department, we could very well trade out of the second round completely as mick eye has even suggested.

I don't see that happening though, as in a "lame duck" year, I still see JR wanting Fox and Hurney to keep us competitive and fill up some seats.

What better way to fill seats than get at least a little movement going on in the draft and getting some exciting rookies in here next season?

I can hardly wait for the draft at this point.

[SorthNarolina]

if we trade into the high 2nd with our 1st we wont get any other picks in return.

[Samuel L. Jackson]

What makes you so sure?

Value wise, we'd at least get a 2nd and a 5th AT WORST...

The trade with SF got us a 2nd and a 4th, yet on paper, we were still on the losing end...

[SorthNarolina]

What makes you so sure?

Value wise, we'd at least get a 2nd and a 5th AT WORST...

The trade with SF got us a 2nd and a 4th, yet on paper, we were still on the losing end...

The chart is only a guide it's not exact, I don't see 2011 being quite as valuable since there won't be an immediate impact because of the possible lockout.

[SorthNarolina]

If we do mid to low 2nd we should get something in return.

[Samuel L. Jackson]

I highly doubt either side will allow a lockout to happen, and I know the chart is a guide... lol...

[Samuel L. Jackson]

If we do mid to low 2nd we should get something in return.

I don't think we'll be trading up if it isn't for a top pick in the second... or a late first even...

I think we'll get a 2nd and 4th like last year.

You said this in your mock draft thread...

We got #'s 43 and 111... Those are both in the top 16 picks of their rounds (2nd and 4th)... Trading our 2011 first rounder for #'s 36, 102, and 142 may not even be out of the question... Especially when the Chiefs lose virtually nothing (they have a first and would still have a second, two 4ths and a 5th this year) and would gain an extra first rounder in 2011...

They are a year into rebuilding mode, and with that trade alone, they could position themselves to be a contender in a year's time...

[chknwing]

carolina doesnt want a 1st round pick this year, and my guess is they will trade down even further. They dont want to have to pay a 1st round contract during a lockout year, 2011.

[Samuel L. Jackson]

carolina doesnt want a 1st round pick this year, and my guess is they will trade down even further. They dont want to have to pay a 1st round contract during a lockout year, 2011.

hence the paragraph above:

Another factor will be money. Jerry Richardson is one of the voices of the owners, and a big argument between the players' and owners' unions is rookie salary. If JR is intent on sending a message in that department, we could very well trade out of the second round completely as mick eye has even suggested.

I covered that base too... But I think we'll want to remain competitive, so at worst, I see us staying put in the second...

[Lumps]

I want to know how the draft reflects Fox's job. All these picks, Fox is going to develop them into his system and then be gone the year after...or is he? Makes you think all this rebuilding means Fox will be here longer. Is there anyone on the team that has been coached by Fox for more than 5 years besides Smitty/Kasay? I don't think so. Have all the Fox haters subsided? I wouldn't mind him staying...but then again I wouldn't mind a new coach. I understand JR is probably going to 'wait and see' with 2011 but what if they lose Fox and there is no one decent left to coach.

This years draft is going to be exiting but I think the aftereffects are going to be even more exiting....

[SorthNarolina]

I don't think we'll be trading up if it isn't for a top pick in the second... or a late first even...

You said this in your mock draft thread...

We got #'s 43 and 111... Those are both in the top 16 picks of their rounds (2nd and 4th)... Trading our 2011 first rounder for #'s 36, 102, and 142 may not even be out of the question... Especially when the Chiefs lose virtually nothing (they have a first and would still have a second, two 4ths and a 5th this year) and would gain an extra first rounder in 2011...

They are a year into rebuilding mode, and with that trade alone, they could position themselves to be a contender in a year's time...

When I said that in the mock draft thread I meant mid to low. I think I even did a scenario for a really low 2nd and a really low 3rd. I've done so many I can't remember which one.

I don't see anybody trading 3 picks for next year's 1st.

[pantherj]

The Panthers have never been hesitant to move up or down according to who is available. I, on the other hand, am always in favor of trading down, and rarely in favor of trading up.

As for the lockout, the NFL is only spending 51% of overall revenues on player costs. NBA players receive about 57%. That alone makes me think a lockout is on the way, not to mention the huge sum of money the union has saved for a lockout.