Outsmarting yourself in the draft. Dan Campbell apparently didn't (at least in '23)

[top dawg]

I've been wanting to say this: I think that we've been simply outsmarting ourselves in the draft since Tepper has taken over and put the wrong guys in charge. Mind you, a lot goes into building a franchise, including free agency...knowing when to hold 'em and knowing when to fold 'em, player valuations, chemistry and fit, but I think that lately we've been making it harder than it has to be.

Monitor the ebb and flow of the board, take opportunities when they present themselves, make a damn decision as to whether you want to move up or down and acquire more picks and do it! I know that it's a simplification of a somewhat complex process, but it's not rocket science. You don't have black and white mathematical formulas, proven science, or physics involved.

I think that we should take the KISS approach to our drafting this year. For those who don't have a clue what KISS means, it's Keep It Simple, Stupid.  For all the people who were criticizing Dan Campbell and the Lions, I think that keeping it simple is exactly what they did for the 2023 draft, and you see the strides the franchise made last season.

Just draft players that are worth a damn. Is it that damned hard? At least for this year, apparently we're not talking QB (unfortunately), so it shouldn't be that hard for people who actually know the damned game to draft players who can play---as in excel in their roles. Draft players who have shown something in college who have that "dawg in them," like Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Jack Campbell and Brian Branch. This is not to say that you shouldn't be mindful of a player's general perceived value, but if the player is pretty much a can't-miss type of proposition in your scheme, then it doesn't matter if you get him while you still can. And with our holes, hitting on prospects should be pretty easy (at least that's what I'm telling myself).

 

 

[RevJ]

I would trade our last 4 first round picks (all cosen in top 10) for the four you mention, who were chosen in the top 45.

[SazmoRanger]

1 hour ago, RevJ said:

I would trade our last 4 first round picks (all cosen in top 10) for the four you mention, who were chosen in the top 45.

That hurts, but so would I. 

[SOJA]

Hell let's do here's what SOJA would have done: you can check my post hx (lmao) to verify 

2020 

1 DB - wanted Okudah and Herbert, DB was third choice over Simmons

2- YGM - would have taken him. Best value at this point at a position of need

2- Chinn- wanted Chin, did not like trade up

4- Troy Pride- wanted Harrison Bryant - wash of busts

5- Kenny Robinson- wanted James Proche

6- Roy - wanted James Proche (ok so that didn't work out)

7 - STO- did not have a strong desire 

So 2020 comes out to be the only thing I wouldn't have done was trade up for Chinn. 

2021

1- Horn- wanted in order: 1. Justin Fields, 2. Rashawn Slater (this is my biggest win, even if you don't like Fields we would NOT be in the position we are today with him OR we would be but still have our first overall pick. Also it made NO sense to trade for Darnold until after the draft so I would have kept a 6th and future second and fourth). Slater also would have been a better pick just saying 

2 Marshall- Loved the trade down and pick, no arguments 

3 Christiansen- loved the pick no arguments 

3 Tremble- was fine with this pick 

4- Chuba- liked the pick felt like it was a bit of a reach

5- Daviyon Nixon- absolutely loved this pick thought we crushed this at the time 

5 Keith Taylor- again loved this pick thought we again crushed

6 Deonte Brown- loved this as well 

6 Shi Smith- loved this pick too

6 Fletcher- worst pick of all time would have been better off drafting my wife she would have been more helpful to the team, I'm not even joking

7 Hoskins- didn't know much about him when drafted but I saw the vision

Overall I actually think we had a very strong draft in 2021 outside of two major decisions. Trading for Darnold predraft and not taking Fields. You flip those two things I think the process of that draft was amazing. 

2022

1 Ekwonu- wanted him bad and we got him...time will tell but thus far things aren't looking great. BUT! we said similar things about DB after his first two years 

2 (38) Jets I'm making this pick dammit but I would have taken Booth Jr who hasn't really wokred out. 

3 did not like the trade up again, but did like drafting matty C

4 (111) Jets making this one too Zamir White 

6 Barno/Mays- actually liked these picks

7 Barnes- I mean why not he was blazing fast 

2022 in general was a bad draft, not much to salvage there but I did have a prediction this year that the starting QB come 2023 of the Panthers would be....

2023

1- stroud. I've been vocal about this since April of 2022. He's been my guy since that Rose Bowl game. When we traded up and I saw the Vegas odds I was ecstatic....let's not turn this into another Bryce thread. I was fine with the trade up. 

2- Mingo. I wanted BJ Ojulari, Brian Branch but Mingo was probably my third choice 

3 DJ johnson- haaaated this trade up and selection. Not drafting for it, but I loved both picks pit made with ours so I would have taken them

4 Zavala- loved this pick, still very hopeful for him 

5 Robbinson- did not love this one, would have taken Henry To'o To'o

 

So there you have it, if I was at the helm the team wouldn't look that different other than the pivotal moment of drafting Fields and if we still had found ourselves trading up to 1 taking Stroud. 

 

 

 

[Castavar]

Outsmarting yourself is taking a fuggin long snapper when Trey Smith was still on the board and was still a big need for us, or skipping over Surtain to pick the 2nd ranked CB, or taking Bryce over Stroud when anybody who watched that game vs Georgia showed Stroud was going to be the truth, or taking Corral over Howell, I could go on and on.

I still believe we would be in a better spot if the Panthers just let the Huddle poll pick the draft picks. Couldn't have been any worse tbh. Hey, at least we'd have a franchise QB had we had our way.

[Basbear]

I mean you need good players at all spots, its that simple. I believe the focus needs to be on position value, so not drafting RB, safety, or even OG early picks.*unless they are SBMVP/HOF special*

Ive followed the draft too long and found you can find good OGs, RBS, and safety in rounds 5-7. They just have a higher "hit" there.

SO in the 1-3 rounds my focus would be QB, WR, LT, DL, edge, and CB. Just the way i am.

Lions show you still need to hit on players even if its MLB or RB. They built the correct way so incoming rookies can have success. 

 

[Basbear]

1 hour ago, SOJA said:

Hell let's do here's what SOJA would have done: you can check my post hx (lmao) to verify 

2020 

1 DB - wanted Okudah and Herbert, DB was third choice over Simmons

2- YGM - would have taken him. Best value at this point at a position of need

2- Chinn- wanted Chin, did not like trade up

4- Troy Pride- wanted Harrison Bryant - wash of busts

5- Kenny Robinson- wanted James Proche

6- Roy - wanted James Proche (ok so that didn't work out)

7 - STO- did not have a strong desire 

So 2020 comes out to be the only thing I wouldn't have done was trade up for Chinn. 

2021

1- Horn- wanted in order: 1. Justin Fields, 2. Rashawn Slater (this is my biggest win, even if you don't like Fields we would NOT be in the position we are today with him OR we would be but still have our first overall pick. Also it made NO sense to trade for Darnold until after the draft so I would have kept a 6th and future second and fourth). Slater also would have been a better pick just saying 

2 Marshall- Loved the trade down and pick, no arguments 

3 Christiansen- loved the pick no arguments 

3 Tremble- was fine with this pick 

4- Chuba- liked the pick felt like it was a bit of a reach

5- Daviyon Nixon- absolutely loved this pick thought we crushed this at the time 

5 Keith Taylor- again loved this pick thought we again crushed

6 Deonte Brown- loved this as well 

6 Shi Smith- loved this pick too

6 Fletcher- worst pick of all time would have been better off drafting my wife she would have been more helpful to the team, I'm not even joking

7 Hoskins- didn't know much about him when drafted but I saw the vision

Overall I actually think we had a very strong draft in 2021 outside of two major decisions. Trading for Darnold predraft and not taking Fields. You flip those two things I think the process of that draft was amazing. 

2022

1 Ekwonu- wanted him bad and we got him...time will tell but thus far things aren't looking great. BUT! we said similar things about DB after his first two years 

2 (38) Jets I'm making this pick dammit but I would have taken Booth Jr who hasn't really wokred out. 

3 did not like the trade up again, but did like drafting matty C

4 (111) Jets making this one too Zamir White 

6 Barno/Mays- actually liked these picks

7 Barnes- I mean why not he was blazing fast 

2022 in general was a bad draft, not much to salvage there but I did have a prediction this year that the starting QB come 2023 of the Panthers would be....

2023

1- stroud. I've been vocal about this since April of 2022. He's been my guy since that Rose Bowl game. When we traded up and I saw the Vegas odds I was ecstatic....let's not turn this into another Bryce thread. I was fine with the trade up. 

2- Mingo. I wanted BJ Ojulari, Brian Branch but Mingo was probably my third choice 

3 DJ johnson- haaaated this trade up and selection. Not drafting for it, but I loved both picks pit made with ours so I would have taken them

4 Zavala- loved this pick, still very hopeful for him 

5 Robbinson- did not love this one, would have taken Henry To'o To'o

 

So there you have it, if I was at the helm the team wouldn't look that different other than the pivotal moment of drafting Fields and if we still had found ourselves trading up to 1 taking Stroud. 

 

 

 

Props to you. 

Im not perfect either- 2020 simmons was my guy before I found out two weeks after the draft he was scared of contact. Loved the YGM and kenny robinson picks. 

My favorite draft was the 2021, just loved all the value in trades and most of the picks- nixon, TMJ, smith, brown. Said it would be a top 5 all-time panther draft. I still believe it would have been if not for injuries to horn and christ. I wanted to trade up for sewell and was upset he went one pick before.]

2022- wanted neal, ugh but happy with icky. He grew on him if you look at the draft forum threads. I agreed with carrol, thought he or wilks were the best QB 1/1a. Im a big RAS guy, so loved the brano pick given the draft looked like nothing was left. 

Id be fired here, for sure.

2023- just like you stroud was my guy 100%. again with you on BJ Ojulari over mingo whom I didnt even know of. (I took a big step back this year in draft research). Hated the trade up for old man johnson. zavala again didnt know of him just he played with icky. LOVED robinson favorite pick in draft. The guy would have been cut if not for 5th round, PS guys were playing above him when injuries hit.  

I basically now just pick out the top 50, couple groups that panthers need, and dark horse/steals type. Plus long ago I started not caring about rounds 5-7, just pointless. 

this year I just know the 33rd needs to BPA and they better hope its WR.....or edge. 

 

[Panthercougar68]

My biggest issue with Detroit as a model is that they have a good offensive line that took years to build and some of that building took place prior to Holmes and Campbell. You have to have a solid foundation first.

[Thorrez]

Tens, if not hundreds, millions of dollars goes inte draft evaluation. And even with that half of the first 50 picks busts.

Either everyone is stupid or it is just plain hard.

Our problem is lack of a consistent plan. Campbell can hide a poor pass blocker on the offensive line because if he can maul the plan still works. Making a bad pick looking solid to good.

Tepper got rich in hedge funds, in which cutting your losses and throwing money in another direction can work as long as you get lucky more and when.

Sadly for all our sanity, he still thinks that applies here.

[HardcoreHokie]

Just finished watching the movie Draft Day with Kevin Costner for the first time in 10 years.  It’s so hilarious and sad at the same time, reminds me of the current Panthers.

Costner’s Browns had #7 overall, but the generational QB (with issues) is a lock to go #1 overall.

Browns GM trades #7 overall and their next two firsts to the Seahawks to move up to #1 (fleeced).

Browns GM panics on the clock and instead drafts a LB instead of the generational QB at #1.

Generational QB starts freefalling and the team that they initially traded with (Seahawks) are gonna steal him at #7 with the two future firsts in the bag.

So the Browns GM snakes a deal with #6 (Jaguars) for three future 2nd rounders.

Then the Browns GM calls the Seahawks back (at #7) and asks for all those firsts back, plus a player, for that QB.  He moves back one spot from #6 to #7, gets all his picks back plus a player… and then still gets the RB he wanted all along at 7.

Complete cluster-fug but absolutely reminded me of Fitterer.  In on all deals.

Edited March 4 by HardcoreHokie