Mike Sando ranks the head coaching opportunities

[Mr. Scot]

1 hour ago, top dawg said:

We get it, Scot, we're always last on the list. At this point you're killing us. 

Our being last on the list was assumed. That's not the value of the article though.

The bit about Tepper encouraging assistants to talk about other assistants is big time cringeworthy.

[Mr. Scot]

2 hours ago, mav1234 said:

It really doesn't matter what Fitterer did. If he wasn't terrible at his job, he'd still be GM.

Reich, maybe you can argue that his lack of success was ownership related.

Fitterer appears to just suck.

Sure it does.

It isn't enough just to know that you failed at something. You have to know why or you'll likely just wind up repeating the same mistakes.

And for the record, I know who I'm agreeing with when I say that. And yes, I hate it

[Mr. Scot]

48 minutes ago, Tarheel119 said:

Not a Tepper sympathizer at all, but if a coach demonstrated they knew what they were doing and you could see some progress, he’d probably back off a little. A huge issue is we looked so inept under Reich. 

It's life the debate we have with Young.

Can we fairly evaluate him while he's constantly running for his life? Probably not.

Similarly though, how far is it to evaluate Reich in a situation where he was being undermined in more than one way?

Edited January 18 by Mr. Scot

[Tarheel119]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

It's life the debate we have with Young.

Can we fairly evaluate him while he's constantly running for his life? Probably not.

Similarly though, how far is it to evaluate Reich in a situation where he was being undermined in more than one way?

I’ll give you the potential undermining but we only have to look to the end of last year. Tepper didn’t change, but despite that, we looked like a functional team. The difference? We had a coach who set the tone and held people accountable. Again, I’m not someone who likes Tepper, in fact, I wish he’d sell the team. With that said, I can’t give Reich a pass (just as I don’t with Tepper either).

[Mr. Scot]

3 hours ago, Tarheel119 said:

I’ll give you the potential undermining but we only have to look to the end of last year. Tepper didn’t change, but despite that, we looked like a functional team. The difference? We had a coach who set the tone and held people accountable. Again, I’m not someone who likes Tepper, in fact, I wish he’d sell the team. With that said, I can’t give Reich a pass (just as I don’t with Tepper either).

I don't give him a pass because there are things he should have done that he didn't.

But I do acknowledge he was put in a terrible spot.

[Shocker]

9 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

...and yeah, we come in last.

Here's the writeup on the Panthers, with a new little piece of info about one of Tepper's practices.

8. Carolina Panthers

The next coach in Carolina must manage an impulsive owner while also creating a successful offense around an outlier quarterback whose confidence could need rebuilding after a brutal rookie season. Working within a weaker division should help, but this job comes with flashing red warning lights.

People who have worked for Panthers owner David Tepper tend to like him. They know he cares about winning. They also have suffered from his overly impulsive decision-making and his intrusion in their areas of expertise.

They question whether Tepper’s methods work as well in the NFL as they might in the investing world that Tepper dominated as a hedge-fund manager. For example, coaches who have worked in Carolina say Tepper’s fact-finding missions in the building, which include asking members of the offensive staff about their defensive counterparts, and vice versa, can amplify divisions.

Tepper signed Frank Reich and a staff featuring big names to long-term contracts amid much fanfare last offseason. Reich lasted 11 games. By then, he had relinquished and taken back play-calling duties, operating like a coach under great pressure from above. The next coach should expect similar treatment until Tepper demonstrates otherwise.

...

Yikes!

I am seriously being realistic as hell,  I would put the probability that the next coach last 4 seasons here at about 5%.

That’s where I am right now.  I mean Nicole Tepper is involved in football decisions?  Things are bleak folks

Edited January 19 by Shocker

[Evil Hurney]

2 hours ago, Shocker said:

I am seriously being realistic as hell,  I would put the probability that the next coach last 4 seasons here at about 5%.

That’s where I am right now.  I mean Nicole Tepper is involved in football decisions?  Things are bleak folks

Considering the average NFL coach only lasts 3 seasons that's not really a damning indictment of Tepper.

Since I was curious, I went ahead and approximated the expected shelf-life of an NFL Head Coaching hire based on coaching data from 2010 to 2023 (I omitted any interim HC from the data).

What this shows is how likely is it that a random HC hire will make it to the end of season X.

Edited January 19 by Evil Hurney

[Shocker]

18 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

Considering the average NFL coach only lasts 3 seasons that's not really a damning indictment of Tepper.

Since I was curious, I went ahead and approximated the expected shelf-life of an NFL Head Coaching hire based on coaching data from 2010 to 2023 (I omitted any interim HC from the data).

What this shows is how likely is it that a random HC hire will make it to the end of season X.

Thanks I really appreciate this…

Considering that there are some substantial long term coaches available this is interesting.  What is the time period for this?

I should really be clear….with Belichick and other longer term coaches available this graph must be more liner.  Is that the case?

Edited January 19 by Shocker

[Evil Hurney]

4 minutes ago, Shocker said:

Thanks I really appreciate this…

Considering that there are some substantial long term coaches available this is interesting.  What is the time period for this?

2010 to 2023 using data from 2023 NFL Coaches | Pro-Football-Reference.com

[Shocker]

2 minutes ago, Evil Hurney said:

2010 to 2023 using data from 2023 NFL Coaches | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Thank you sir…much respect 

[Shocker]

No surprise…crazy

 

[Wolfcop]

9 hours ago, Tarheel119 said:

Not a Tepper sympathizer at all, but if a coach demonstrated they knew what they were doing and you could see some progress, he’d probably back off a little. A huge issue is we looked so inept under Reich. 

Exactly. He gave Rhule too much breathing room. He has to find the right balance, but most importantly the right coach. 

[Mr. Scot]

So apparently Yahoo Sports did a similar poll, with Charles Robinson and Jori Epstein asking six "highly positioned" sources (three coaches and three personnel people) to rank the leagues head coaching opportunities from best to worst.

Ranking NFL's open head-coaching jobs: Coaches, execs pick league’s gigs from least to most attractive

Here's their writeup for the Panthers.

7. Carolina Panthers (7 points: one sixth-place vote, five last-place votes)

Owner first” was the measuring stick of one executive and every coach when it came to approaching each of these openings, and the external view of Panthers owner David Tepper was generally not positive within the poll. And it went beyond the drink-tossing incident in Carolina’s season-finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

 That was certainly noticed, but the issues highlighted by the group focused more on the turnstile nature of employment at both the head coach and general manager positions, as well as the persistent belief that Tepper had a significant hand in multiple quarterback decisions over the course of his ownership. 

The bottom line: Tepper is seen as someone who inserts himself into football evaluations in which he lacks the proper depth to make seasoned decisions, and also is a threat as a micromanager to his coaching staffs. 

One other lingering issue that was a surprise: It didn’t go unnoticed that nearly one year ago, former head coach Matt Rhule filed a lawsuit against Tepper over nearly $5 million in severance that Rhule believes he is owed. That dispute remains unresolved in the league’s arbitration system, but it’s certainly not a great look when a seemingly mercurial owner is fighting a former coach over money. As one executive said, “[W]ith Tepper, it seems like a f***ing miserable place to work.”

Beyond Tepper, the bones of the team are not considered to be promising in the near term, which is an issue when paired with the belief that the club owner lacks patience. There are a handful of promising young players, but the quarterback, Bryce Young, struggled significantly in his rookie season, giving pause to the idea that the position is adequately resolved. 

Carolina is also hobbled in the next two drafts where it concerns premium draft picks, having traded away its 2024 first-rounder and 2025 second-rounder to the Chicago Bears in the move that ultimately netted Young for the Panthers. For a roster that looks like it’s in need of a high-percentage reboot, lacking two premium draft picks in two years is a solid negative. Particularly when the reboot/rebuild/retool has already resulted in the first overall pick in the 2024 draft going to the Bears, and making it likely that the 2025 second-rounder (also going to the Bears) will be another high choice in that round.

The one upside mentioned by two of those polled? Carolina’s roster is well positioned for a two-year teardown, with a solid amount of salary-cap space this offseason, and a potentially massive amount of space after the 2024 season. That means the Panthers have the runway to extend the handful of current players worth keeping long term, then ample cap space to accentuate the next two draft classes with some free-agent signings in March of 2025.

Quotable: “[Carolina] is the place that you really need to take stock of your current job,” one polled executive said. “For me, I’m really happy to be where I am and we have a great future ahead of us and a great quarterback, an awesome staff. It gives you something to think about and [reinforces] being patient rather than just saying ‘It’s 1 of 32’ and feeling pressure to take the first chance you get. The Panthers, just because of the instability with the owner and that roster needing so much work, it’s not the best shot you can take, that’s for sure.”

[jayboogieman]

31 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

So apparently Yahoo Sports did a similar poll, with Charles Robinson and Jori Epstein asking six "highly positioned" sources (three coaches and three personnel people) to rank the leagues head coaching opportunities from best to worst.

Ranking NFL's open head-coaching jobs: Coaches, execs pick league’s gigs from least to most attractive

Here's their writeup for the Panthers.

7. Carolina Panthers (7 points: one sixth-place vote, five last-place votes)

Owner first” was the measuring stick of one executive and every coach when it came to approaching each of these openings, and the external view of Panthers owner David Tepper was generally not positive within the poll. And it went beyond the drink-tossing incident in Carolina’s season-finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

 That was certainly noticed, but the issues highlighted by the group focused more on the turnstile nature of employment at both the head coach and general manager positions, as well as the persistent belief that Tepper had a significant hand in multiple quarterback decisions over the course of his ownership. 

The bottom line: Tepper is seen as someone who inserts himself into football evaluations in which he lacks the proper depth to make seasoned decisions, and also is a threat as a micromanager to his coaching staffs. 

One other lingering issue that was a surprise: It didn’t go unnoticed that nearly one year ago, former head coach Matt Rhule filed a lawsuit against Tepper over nearly $5 million in severance that Rhule believes he is owed. That dispute remains unresolved in the league’s arbitration system, but it’s certainly not a great look when a seemingly mercurial owner is fighting a former coach over money. As one executive said, “[W]ith Tepper, it seems like a f***ing miserable place to work.”

Beyond Tepper, the bones of the team are not considered to be promising in the near term, which is an issue when paired with the belief that the club owner lacks patience. There are a handful of promising young players, but the quarterback, Bryce Young, struggled significantly in his rookie season, giving pause to the idea that the position is adequately resolved. 

Carolina is also hobbled in the next two drafts where it concerns premium draft picks, having traded away its 2024 first-rounder and 2025 second-rounder to the Chicago Bears in the move that ultimately netted Young for the Panthers. For a roster that looks like it’s in need of a high-percentage reboot, lacking two premium draft picks in two years is a solid negative. Particularly when the reboot/rebuild/retool has already resulted in the first overall pick in the 2024 draft going to the Bears, and making it likely that the 2025 second-rounder (also going to the Bears) will be another high choice in that round.

The one upside mentioned by two of those polled? Carolina’s roster is well positioned for a two-year teardown, with a solid amount of salary-cap space this offseason, and a potentially massive amount of space after the 2024 season. That means the Panthers have the runway to extend the handful of current players worth keeping long term, then ample cap space to accentuate the next two draft classes with some free-agent signings in March of 2025.

Quotable: “[Carolina] is the place that you really need to take stock of your current job,” one polled executive said. “For me, I’m really happy to be where I am and we have a great future ahead of us and a great quarterback, an awesome staff. It gives you something to think about and [reinforces] being patient rather than just saying ‘It’s 1 of 32’ and feeling pressure to take the first chance you get. The Panthers, just because of the instability with the owner and that roster needing so much work, it’s not the best shot you can take, that’s for sure.”

In other words, the good/great coaches are going to turn Tepper down unless he drastically overpays and the coach just wants a check.