Jeff Howe swaps Young and Stroud

[Mr. Scot]

In His latest article for The Athletic, league insider Jeff Howe (with the help of some NFL executives) theorizes what could have been if the Panthers had picked "that other guy" in last year's draft.

 

The analysis includes some discussion on what happened internally with the Panthers this past season.

Excerpts follow:

...(I)t’s fair to wonder whether the Panthers made the wrong call with Young or if Stroud simply wound up in a situation that was more conducive to early success. There’s an argument to be made for each side.

“Houston has a better situation,” an executive from another team said. “If you drop Stroud in Carolina, would he have the same success? No way in hell.”

...

As the Texans were expected to lose in Caserio’s first two seasons, he prioritized short, budget-conscious contracts for players with reputations for playing hard and smart as the team searched for a longer-term identity.

Then, Houston finally hired the right coach in Ryans, who was viewed to have star potential as he gained experience with the San Francisco 49ers’ staff, and he quickly established a winning culture.

...

The Panthers, meanwhile, operated on a nearly identical timeline, but the results haven’t followed. General manager Scott Fitterer was hired in 2021, and head coach Frank Reich took over last year. Both were recently fired, with Reich’s tenure lasting a mere 11 games. Whether it was meddling from owner David Tepper, a roster that was constructed to fit the prior coaching staff’s philosophy or a combination of both, the Panthers weren’t competitive this season.

Young completed 59.8 percent of his passes for 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and a 73.7 passer rating. He added 253 rushing yards in 16 starts. There was an emphasis on keeping him in the pocket to protect him from injuries, but that seemed to restrict the creativity that set him apart at Alabama. And yet, Young was sacked 62 times behind a bad offensive line and couldn’t lean on the league’s 20th-ranked rushing attack or get enough plays out of his receivers and tight ends.

...

“There are a lot of failures there in Carolina,” an executive said. “It’s not all on Bryce. Carolina had no run game or playmakers, and the offensive line was a mess. You tried to drop a unique QB into a bad situation, and you can’t protect him.”

Young wasn’t playing with the same confidence, partly because of the results and partly because of the number of voices in his ear trying to pass along too many messages. It’s difficult to imagine any quarterback thriving under those circumstances, let alone a rookie.

“The situations, staff, surrounding cast, etc., have a bearing on success and (what is labeled as) failure, especially at that position,” another executive said.

...

Even if it’s acknowledged that the circumstances in Carolina were worse than they were in Houston, it’s also still possible the Panthers simply left the better player on the board.

Young had plenty of support around the league as the best quarterback prospect, but it wasn’t unanimous. The concerns were real over his 5-foot-10, 204-pound measurement at the combine, to the point that some executives said they couldn’t justify spending such a high draft pick on him.

Stroud had been viewed as the best pure pocket passer in the class, and executives and coaches around the league believed he would have been better suited for Reich’s style. Reich, a former NFL quarterback, had an extended history working with QBs who preferred to stay in the pocket rather than scramble to make plays off schedule. Stroud was certainly Caserio’s type of quarterback after spending so much time around Tom Brady with the New England Patriots.

...

Even though talent evaluators had their preferences for Young or Stroud, it was largely considered a tough call because they’re such different players. That led to one executive telling The Athletic last April that he’d “rather be (the Texans) and take Kevin Durant.” It was a reference to the 2007 NBA Draft, when there was a debate between Greg Oden and Durant for the top pick.

There also was Anthony Richardson, who went No. 4 to the Indianapolis Colts. Richardson started only four games due to injuries, so his evaluation is far more limited, but one executive wondered whether Richardson would have been the better pick for Carolina. The thinking was Richardson could improvise and use his athleticism to offset the other issues with the offense, but the injury issues could have presented themselves with the Panthers, too.

...

“I was never a huge Young fan,” an executive said. “So I would say they took the wrong guy.”

Another executive agreed.

“I think they took the wrong guy,” the executive said. “(Young) is very small. (There was) no talent around him, but in the end, Stroud was the better prospect.”

It’s still way too early to close the book on Young. He has more than enough talent to rebound in an improved environment, just as Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence recovered from a miserable rookie season in 2021.

...

The other problem is the price the Panthers paid to select Young. They traded two first-rounders, two second-rounders and wide receiver D.J. Moore to move up for the quarterback. Whatever Young’s future holds, at that cost, the Panthers would prefer to have more of a sure thing after one season. But it’s the Panthers’ fault for dropping Young into a bad situation.

Stroud, on the other hand, is that sure thing. He has shown poise with his ball security, a penchant to deliver in clutch situations and the moxie to produce a near-perfect passer rating (157.2) in his playoff debut against a Cleveland Browns defense that allowed the fewest yards in the regular season.

...

Before the draft, though, there were reports that Stroud performed poorly on the S2 Cognition test. Since S2 only releases the test results to the teams that pay for their services, the theory is a team leaked the scores to hurt Stroud’s stock.

It just didn’t seem to fly with the teams that had already gotten to know Stroud through the interview process.

“Stroud is a really smart guy,” an executive said. “Whoever leaked that S2 score, that was bulls—. I don’t know what they were trying to accomplish. When we met with him, turned on the tape and talked ball, we knew he was an incredibly smart quarterback.”

And the Texans know they have the face of their franchise, while the Panthers are still trying to figure it out.

[Captroop]

I always hear the, "Stroud wouldn't have looked as good on the Panthers this year if they'd taken him."

And while I agree he definitely would NOT have taken this team to the playoffs, I think that's an incredibly short-sighted view. The team won't be bad forever. But will Bryce ever play like a superstar?

I think you flip the question; if Bryce had been on Houston, would he have achieved the same level of success? Really, do you think he would have?

I just don't see anything in Bryce's game that leads me to think he will ever play up to Stroud's level.

[demcj]

  

there's zero chance of stroud looking like young did if the panthers drafted him.

it's one thing to be drafted by a losing team who can't get it's act together...it's another thing to look like you can't get your act together, and be one of the reasons as to why your team is losing.

stroud would have shown promise despite playing on a bad team. if young was drafted by the texans, they would have been asking the same question the panthers are asking...did we pick the right guy?

   

[CanadianCat]

My hope is in a Jacksonville-esk turnaround when we get a proper coach and staff in the building. Whoever we hire will come in with a plan for Young. 

[Wundrbread33]

5 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

My hope is in a Jacksonville-esk turnaround when we get a proper coach and staff in the building. Whoever we hire will come in with a plan for Young. 

Having a plan for Young is okay, but a forced marriage to him isn’t imo.

Otherwise Tep may alienate candidates who don’t want to be attached to what the last regime did. 
 

Applies to GM and HC.

[CamWhoaaCam]

8 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

My hope is in a Jacksonville-esk turnaround when we get a proper coach and staff in the building. Whoever we hire will come in with a plan for Young. 

How does the coaching staff improve his lack of arm talent?

 

 

[Ricky Spanish]

1 hour ago, Captroop said:

I always hear the, "Stroud wouldn't have looked as good on the Panthers this year if they'd taken him."

And while I agree he definitely would NOT have taken this team to the playoffs, I think that's an incredibly short-sighted view. The team won't be bad forever. But will Bryce ever play like a superstar?

I think you flip the question; if Bryce had been on Houston, would he have achieved the same level of success? Really, do you think he would have?

I just don't see anything in Bryce's game that leads me to think he will ever play up to Stroud's level.

I think Stroud would have looked better than Young here because Stroud fit Reich's offense better than Young did.

However, it probably would have just been him and Adam Thielen that looked good, becuase the line still would have looked like poo and the RBs still would have looked like poo.

This really is more of an indictment on Reich and his inability to adjust scheme to better fit his personnel, not just his rookie QB, also Fitterer for thinking any of the players we had on roster would fit Reich's style of play.

Dildos top to bottom.

 

[Mr. Scot]

5 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

This really is more of an indictment on Reich and his inability to adjust scheme to better fit his personnel, not just his rookie QB, also Fitterer for thinking any of the players we had on roster would fit Reich's style of play.

Yes and no...

Reich didn't set this scheme. Thomas Brown did, and I think Reich encouraged that because he wanted to help Brown and other assistants along in their career.

The problem: Brown wasn't good at it.

As head coach, It would have been on Reich to see that and try to fix it. Instead, He handled it in more of a Ron Rivera fashion by not doing much directly and just kind of hoping he'd learn and get better.

If we were able to see the full story, I think you probably find several incidents where Reich trying to be a nice guy and do the right thing ultimately heard both him and the team.

Edited January 18 by Mr. Scot

[Hoenheim]

There's  no definite way of knowing what Stroud would have looked like on our team and what Bryce would have looked like on the Texans

I really don't like when fans of either side of this argument act like their OPINION is a fact,  it's obnoxious. 

There's no guarantee that Stroud would have looked just as bad on the Panthers as Young did. And there's no proof that Young would have done as well as Stroud in Houston!!!

 

Different people deal with circumstances in different ways. You can't just assume the outcomes would be the exact same based on the circumstances surrounding them.

[Waldo]

The Texans are not in the playoffs with Young. Stroud would have looked promising here but the dysfunctional stuff wouldn't have gone away.

Anyway you spin it Carolina whiffed hard after antrade they should never have made.

[Waldo]

9 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Yes and no...

Reich didn't set this scheme. Thomas Brown did, and I think Reich encouraged that because he wanted to help Brown and other assistants along in their career.

The problem: Brown wasn't good at it.

As head coach, It would have been on Reich to see that and try to fix it. Instead, He handled it in more of a Ron Rivera fashion by not doing much directly and just kind of hoping he'd learn and get better.

If we were able to see the full story, I think you probably find several incidents where Reich trying to be a nice guy and do the right thing ultimately heard both him and the team.

How soon did Brown have his direct path of communication with Tepper? If Tepper was boxing Reich in early, playbook and QB choice, then was he ever really checked in?

[Ricky Spanish]

12 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Yes and no...

Reich didn't set this scheme. Thomas Brown did, and I think Reich encouraged that because he wanted to help Brown and other assistants along in their career.

The problem: Brown wasn't good at it.

As head coach, It would have been on Reich to see that and try to fix it. Instead, He handled it in more of a Ron Rivera fashion by not doing much directly and just kind of hoping he'd learn and get better.

If we were able to see the full story, I think you probably find several incidents where Reich trying to be a nice guy and do the right thing ultimately heard both him and the team.

It was a collaborative effort, but it was the majority Reich's offense. You can tell due to The SEVERE lack of pre-snap motion being a Reich thing and archaic in the modern NFL. The Rams use motion at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and that's where Brown came from. Motion, PA, and RPO rates all went up after Reich left. That isn't a coincidence.

Square peg, round hole trying to merge a mid 2000's offense built to be run by a statue in the mold of Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers with Shanahan style concepts built around distributing the ball quickly to playmakers to get YAC easily, all with a line built for the power run game and unable to grasp the complex blocking scheme of Reich's offense and receivers who can't get separation.

Failure top to bottom.

[jfra78]

Did CJ land in a better spot? Maybe, it's hard to tell, but most people were saying Carolina was a better spot before the season.  No one would ever know what the season would have looked like with CJ here, but it really doesn't matter.  Anyone with common sense can tell you that Stroud made the most of his situation and outplayed his team's expectations and Young did not. 

[Shotgun]

I think we would probably win 6-8 games with Stroud. No playoffs but Stroud probably still wins OROY here.