Panthers Rookie Class Review (& a look at the top performing rookies)

[Bear Hands]

TL,DR: Our draft was terrible

But for those interested, let's DIVE IN through 16 games.  I'm skipping the Bryce vs. rookie QBs chat because that's had plenty of discussion.

We had pick 39 & chose Jonathan Mingo:

Jonathan Mingo: 43 rec (85 targets) | 418 yards | 0 TDs | 9.7 avg

 

Drafted Receivers (TE & WR):

Jaxon S-N:  60 rec (88 targ) | 614 yards | 4 TDs | 10.2 avg

Jordan Addison: 66 rec (100 targ) | 854 yards | 9 TDs | 12.9 avg 

Zay Flowers: 77 rec (108 targ) | 858 yards | 5 TDs (6 total) | 11.1 avg

Dalton Kincaid: 66 rec (83 targ) | 589 yards | 2 TDs | 8.9 avg

Sam LaPorta: 81 rec (113 targ) | 860 yards | 9 TDs | 10.6 avg

notable after pick 39...

Jayden Reed: 60 rec (90 targ) | 681 yards | 8 TDs (10 total) | 11.4 avg 

Rashee Rice: 79 rec (102 targ) | 938 yards | 7 TDs | 11.9 avg

Tank Dell: 45 rec (75 targ) | 709 yards | 7 TDs | 15.1 avg (in 11 games!)

Josh Downs: 65 rec (95 targ) | 723 yards | 2 TDs | 11.1 avg

Puka Nacua: 101 rec (154 targ) | 1,445 yards | 5 TDs | 14.3 avg

More Notes:

Demario Douglas, Michael Wilson, & Donta Wicks all had more receiving yards than Mingo.  Marvin Mims has shown explosion/big play ability for Denver, and both Trey Palmer and Jalin Hyatt have come on at the end of the season for TB and NYG respectively.  

Luke Musgrave was having a very strong year but got injured.  Tucker Kraft (another rookie) has stepped in and played GREAT at TE.  

Mingo is the ONLY rookie WR with substantial receptions to have a sub 10.0 YPR avg

Q Johnston seems like the only one struggling as much as Mingo.

--

 

 

Okay then..onto the other big position need we tried to fill...we spent a packaged 93rd & 132nd pick on:

DJ Johnson: 6 tackles (16 comb) | 1 TFL 

Comparing Rookie Pass Rushers:

Will Anderson: 29 tackles (44 comb) | 7 sacks | 10 TFL

Jalen Carter: 18 tackles (30 comb) | 6 sacks | 2 FF | 8 TFL | 1 Def TD

Calijah Kancey: 18 tackles (25 comb) | 4 sacks | 10 TFL 

Tuli Tuipulotu: 35 tackles (48 comb) | 4.5 sacks | 2 FF | 8 TFL

Byron Young: 41 tackles (60 comb) | 7 sacks | 2 FF | 7 TFL

BJ Ojulari: 19 tackle (35 comb) | 4 sacks | 4 TFL 

after pick 80...

YaYa Diaby: 22 tackles (33 comb) | 6.5 sacks | 1 FF | 11 TFL *pick at 82, 2 after DJJ

Kobie Turner: 29 tackles (57 comb) | 9 sacks | 8 TFL *pick 89

The 132nd pick we traded:  Nick Herbig: 19 tackles (27 comb) | 3 sacks | 5 TFL | 2 FF

Karl Brooks: 10 tackles (18 comb) | 3 sacks | 4 TFL | 1 FF *pick 179

Notes:

Van Ness, McDonald, and a few others were behind talented edge rushers but still managed some nice work when they've gone in.  KJ Henry (pick 137) has had snaps since the Sweat and Young trades and look aight as well in WAS.  

--

 

 

REVIEW TIME!

D+ (I'm being kind)

We chose Mingo over some high performing rookies.

Luke Musgrave (TE), JuJu Brents (DB), Jayden Reed (WR), Tuli (EDGE), Brian Branch (DB), Rashee Rice (WR), Tyrique Stevenson (DB), & DJ Turner (DB) to name just a few, were selected shortly after. 

I'm not calling Mingo a certified bust, but it was NOT a good campaign.  He also didn't fit what we desperately needed at WR (quickness and route running).  He has a lot he needs to work on, isn't a big hands-catcher either.  

I'll give leniency on mid 3rd-7th rounders that bloomed because every team passed on them for a round after 39.   However, it should be noted that we gave up pick 61 in the Bryce trade, a pick just ahead of Marvin Mims, Tank Dell, Byron Young, & Josh Downs.

Moving on, we traded up for DJJ at pick 80 (Using 93 & 132). 

That's up 13 spots...and 3 of the next 4 picks after ours were impact rookies (Tyjae Spears, YaYa Diaby, Devon Achane). DJJ wasn't ready (age 25) and we needed to bring in an elder-Houston to help before the season began. 

Henley (LB), Ji'Ayir Brown (DB), Kobie Turner (DL) were right there as well all before pick 93 who could've warranted some argument in that trade up.

It's not an F because Robinson has played ST and hasn't looked terrible..but he's not an NFL starter.  It looks like Zavala may not even be suited for a backup role.  

--

 

 

A RECAP:

Going into draft season, we had 7 picks:

1-9 (shipped)

2-39

2-61 (shipped)

3-93 (shipped)

4-114

4-132 (shipped)

5-145

We ended up with 5 players selected, none have given us any comfort or any sense of security at their positions.  QB, WR, EDGE, OG, & DB.  Not a single one. 

In total, we used 9 draft picks (2 future 1-2024, 2-2025) and (1) DJ Moore on this 5 player draft class.  Let that soak in.  

9 picks and DJ Moore for Bryce, Mingo, DJJ, Zavala, and Robinson

The grade on this draft is hinging on Bryce, but if he doesn't work out, this could end up being one of the worst drafts in NFL history.  This is on the scouting team and Fitterer's drafting as much as the players/situation they're in.  The GM put the struggling talent in said position.    

Thanks for reading.

 Happy New Year!

 

[Bear Hands]

I'm still undecided on which of 39/Mingo vs. 80/DJJ makes me more frustrated, but just want to reiterate this point again:

We used 9 picks, including a future 1st and 2nd (and DJ Moore) on these 5 players.

Last year, we used 5 picks on 3 guys ALREADY OFF THE TEAM (Matt Corral, Brandon Smith, & Kalon Barnes).  Icky, Barno, & Mays are all that remains.  

That's how you become the worst roster in football folks.

[mrcompletely11]

9 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

TL,DR: Our draft was terrible

But for those interested, let's DIVE IN through 16 games.  I'm skipping the Bryce vs. rookie QBs chat because that's had plenty of discussion.

We had pick 39 & chose Jonathan Mingo:

Jonathan Mingo: 43 rec (85 targets) | 418 yards | 0 TDs | 9.7 avg

 

Drafted Receivers (TE & WR):

Jaxon S-N:  60 rec (88 targ) | 614 yards | 4 TDs | 10.2 avg

Jordan Addison: 66 rec (100 targ) | 854 yards | 9 TDs | 12.9 avg 

Zay Flowers: 77 rec (108 targ) | 858 yards | 5 TDs (6 total) | 11.1 avg

Dalton Kincaid: 66 rec (83 targ) | 589 yards | 2 TDs | 8.9 avg

Sam LaPorta: 81 rec (113 targ) | 860 yards | 9 TDs | 10.6 avg

notable after pick 39...

Jayden Reed: 60 rec (90 targ) | 681 yards | 8 TDs (10 total) | 11.4 avg 

Rashee Rice: 79 rec (102 targ) | 938 yards | 7 TDs | 11.9 avg

Tank Dell: 45 rec (75 targ) | 709 yards, 7 TDs | 15.1 avg (in 11 games!)

Josh Downs: 65 rec (95 targ) | 723 yards | 2 TDs | 11.1 avg

Puka Nacua: 101 rec (154 targ) | 1,445 yards | 5 TDs | 14.3 avg

More Notes:

Demario Douglas, Michael Wilson, & Donta Wicks all had more receiving yards than Mingo.  Marvin Mims has shown explosion/big play ability for Denver, and both Trey Palmer and Jalin Hyatt have come on at the end of the season for TB and NYG respectively.  

Luke Musgrave was having a very strong year but got injured.  Tucker Kraft (another rookie) has stepped in and played GREAT at TE.  

Mingo is the ONLY rookie WR with substantial receptions to have a sub 10.0 YPR avg

Q Johnston seems like the only one struggling as much as Mingo.

--

 

 

Okay then..onto the other big position need we tried to fill...we spent a packaged 93rd & 132nd pick on:

DJ Johnson: 6 tackles (16 comb) | 1 TFL 

Comparing Rookie Pass Rushers:

Will Anderson: 29 tackles (44 comb) | 7 sacks | 10 TFL

Jalen Carter: 18 tackles (30 comb) | 6 sacks | 2 FF | 8 TFL | 1 Def TD

Calijah Kancey: 18 tackles (25 comb) | 4 sacks | 10 TFL 

Tuli Tuipulotu: 35 tackles (48 comb) | 4.5 sacks | 2 FF | 8 TFL

Byron Young: 41 tackles (60 comb) | 7 sacks | 2 FF | 7 TFL

BJ Ojulari: 19 tackle (35 comb) | 4 sacks | 4 TFL 

after pick 80...

YaYa Diaby: 22 tackles (33 comb) | 6.5 sacks | 1 FF | 11 TFL *pick at 82, 2 after DJJ

Kobie Turner: 29 tackles (57 comb) | 9 sacks | 8 TFL *pick 89

The 132nd pick we traded:  Nick Herbig: 19 tackles (27 comb) | 3 sacks | 5 TFL | 2 FF

Karl Brooks: 10 tackles (18 comb) | 3 sacks | 4 TFL | 1 FF *pick 179

Notes:

Van Ness, McDonald, and a few others were behind talented edge rushers but still managed some nice work when they've gone in.  KJ Henry (pick 137) has had snaps since the Sweat and Young trades and look aight as well in WAS.  

--

 

 

REVIEW TIME!

D+ (I'm being kind)

We chose Mingo over some high performing rookies.

Luke Musgrave (TE), JuJu Brents (DB), Jayden Reed (WR), Tuli (EDGE), Brian Branch (DB), Rashee Rice (WR), Tyrique Stevenson (DB), & DJ Turner (DB) to name just a few, were selected shortly after. 

I'm not calling Mingo a certified bust, but it was NOT a good campaign.  He also didn't fit what we desperately needed at WR (quickness and route running).  He has a lot he needs to work on, isn't a big hands-catcher either.  

I'll give leniency on mid 3rd-7th rounders that bloomed because every team passed on them for a round after 39.   However, it should be noted that we gave up pick 61 in the Bryce trade, a pick just ahead of Marvin Mims, Tank Dell, Byron Young, & Josh Downs.

Moving on, we traded up for DJJ at pick 80 (Using 93 & 132). 

That's up 13 spots...and 3 of the next 4 picks after ours were impact rookies (Tyjae Spears, YaYa Diaby, Devon Achane). DJJ wasn't ready (age 25) and we needed to bring in an elder-Houston to help before the season began. 

Henley (LB), Ji'Ayir Brown (DB), Kobie Turner (DL) were right there as well all before pick 93 who could've warranted some argument in that trade up.

It's not an F because Robinson has played ST and hasn't looked terrible..but he's not an NFL starter.  It looks like Zavala may not even be suited for a backup role.  

--

 

 

A RECAP:

Going into draft season, we had 7 picks:

1-9 (shipped)

2-39

2-61 (shipped)

3-93

4-114

4-132 (shipped)

5-145

We ended up with 5 players selected, none have given us any comfort or any sense of security at their positions.  QB, WR, EDGE, OG, & DB.  Not a single one. 

In total, we used 9 draft picks (2 future 1-2024, 2-2025) and (1) DJ Moore on this 5 player draft class.  Let that soak in.  

9 picks and DJ Moore for Bryce, Mingo, DJJ, Zavala, and Robinson

The grade on this draft is hinging on Bryce, but if he doesn't work out, this could end up being one of the worst drafts in NFL history.  This is on the scouting team and Fitterer's drafting as much as the players/situation they're in.  The GM put the struggling talent in said position.    

Thanks for reading.

 Happy New Year!

 

Damn that is brutal

[4Corners]

Mingo sucks. Y’all know it. I’d cut bait next year if he doesn’t do poo. 

[Castavar]

[Bear Hands]

And one final bit of analysis

That's 16 picks used in 2 years that turned into: 8 players! And Icky, Bryce, & Mingo are the only real guys left with long term potential (and that's a stretch to say). So, no mid-to-late round finds, maybe 4 guys left (from 16 picks) that are weighing more on the bust than success side of the spectrum.  The other 4 aren't long for being Panthers.  The book is not written, but holy hell.

We've also used 1 future pick on Smith-Marsette (2025s 7th)

In a league where so much of the draft is guesswork or dependent on building depth, everything, the worst thing you can do is limit your chances and don't balance out your risks.

That is a grand total of 17 picks used in 2 seasons/since the CMC & Anderson trades.  

I'd dare say this is the worst managed 2-year stretch for any franchise in some time.  

What a way to waste the capital gained from the CMC and Robbie trades...that was 6 added picks in total.  And I think there's a good argument we didn't get enough out of CMC's deal.  Teams wanted him and it didn't seem like we played hardball enough between SB contender/division rivals (LA & SF).

 

 

 

 

   

[Basbear]

Ive learned that you simply cannot judge rookies until the second full off-season. Rare exceptions- early draft pick cut or someone wins awards, pro-bowl, break records etc. 

That said, early returns are looking horrible. Even without the trades, just piles on....

Plus with bryce being the #1, its hard to not judge him. I will add this personal note, my aunt came over one sunday and never watched football her whole life. I had the game on and after about 2minutes;

Aunt-"My gosh that guy looks so small!?!?!"....."

Bas- "Yeeeaaaa that was the panthers 1st overall pick, whom they traded a kings haul for"....

Aunt- "Oooo my"

So I'll wait until TC before I pass along my opinions, but bear hands always is a good read. 

 

 

[Hoenheim]

I like the way you put it. People can argue whether Bryce will be good in the future but he definitely hasn't been good for 90% of his rookie season 

I don't agree with not grading picks in their rookie years. You can grade them year by year and by their entire career once they have more than 1 season. 

 

Draft was really bad, I'd give it a D as well. Hard to give any draft an F though. 

Edited January 6 by Hoenheim

[Krovvy]

Scott Fitterer on Monday when it's announced he's being retained.

[Cuttinedge]

Plenty of  guys on this site that can do a better job of drafting   than our GM and scouting dept    

Edited January 7 by Cuttinedge

[45catfan]

I hated our draft.  I have justification for it now.

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

This is gonna go down as one of the worst drafts in NFL history.

[Carl Spackler]

You think that's bad? 2022 draft's even worse lol but not including trades

[Bear Hands]

31 minutes ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

This is gonna go down as one of the worst drafts in NFL history.

If Bryce doesn’t work out (not that I’m by any means hoping for that), it very well could be and not hyperbole. 

I tried to avoid offering my own revisionist history scenarios…but the other possibilities between coaching hires and different draft scenarios is infinitely frustrating.

Draft wise, so many different routes without the #1 trade up…

Richardson-Tuli-Dell-Kraft

or a Stroud-Brents-Downs type one.

Hell, at this point I’m honestly wondering what a Jalen Carter-Jayden Reed-Hendon Hooker-YaYa draft could’ve been like. 

Anyhoo, we aren’t changing the past haha