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QB EPA (expected pts added) vs OL pass-block grades for recent years - Purdy at the top, Bryce at the bottom

KSpan

By KSpan,
in Carolina Panthers

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KSpan Grand Master

KSpan

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Interesting snippet charting a QB's individual EPA vs the OL pass-block grades, basically trying to show who may be contributing relative to their OL play. Since Brock Purdy gets brought up frequently around here, he has the highest EPA even with SF's terrible OL blocking grades. At the very bottom of EPA and also with abysmal OL grades? Bryce, Zach Wilson (2023), Mac Jones (2021), Kenny Pickett (2023), Sam Darnold (2021), and others.

There are many other factors to consider in the overall, but it is interesting to see what QBs have also been suffering from dumpster-level pass blocking and their respective EPAs.

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KSpan Grand Master

KSpan

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42 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Only folks who don't watch the games and consider PFF to be the Holy Bible think that SF has a bottom five OL. 

No real disagreement, but FWIW Purdy's pressure rate is 22% with 2.6s pocket time while Bryce's, since this is a Panthers board, is 23.9% with 2.5s pocket time. Stroud is right behind him at 2.5s and 23.6% and Levis 2.5% but 26.9% pressure.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing_advanced.htm

Stats don't tell a whoel story of any kind but it is interesting to look at and see correlations between pocket time, pressure, sack rates, and who the outliers are.

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PleaseCutStewart Grand Master

PleaseCutStewart

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That's all fine and dandy, but it helps when you have probably the best offensive mind in football as your coach and have the best weapons to throw to in the NFL... That might have an impact on why he is playing so well...

I'm also not buying San Fran having a bottom five pass blocking oline. PFF loved to give Brian Burns an 80+ PFF grade every week for a while, despite having like one tackle in the game...

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PNW_PantherMan Grand Master

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The Brock Purdy thing is so funny to me.  The whole argument about how he's only successful because of the rest of the team, and anybody could do it.  Okay, so why didn't Trey Lance work?  Why did they kick Jimmy G to the curb?

Obviously he's not the best athlete in the NFL, but he's clearly doing something right.  It tickles me because there's a big cross section of people that believe this but don't think a better supporting cast would save Bryce.

Brock Purdy is getting help from the fact that he's on a good team with a good coach, but he's clearly doing something right.  I don't think you could just put any QB in that situation and they would have the same success.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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1 hour ago, KSpan said:

No real disagreement, but FWIW Purdy's pressure rate is 22% with 2.6s pocket time while Bryce's, since this is a Panthers board, is 23.9% with 2.5s pocket time. Stroud is right behind him at 2.5s and 23.6% and Levis 2.5% but 26.9% pressure.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing_advanced.htm

Stats don't tell a whoel story of any kind but it is interesting to look at and see correlations between pocket time, pressure, sack rates, and who the outliers are.

People keep trying to do mental gymnastics but the reality is that a lot of our offensive struggles boil down to Bryce sucks.

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Mr Mojo Risin Mentor

Mr Mojo Risin

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4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

People keep trying to do mental gymnastics but the reality is that a lot of our offensive struggles boil down to Bryce sucks.

Our rookie #1 pick QB has sucked this year but the team also sucked at surrounding him with proper players + coaching. Both are pretty much true I don't really know how you can argue against the latter.

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Wes21 Mentor

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When creating metrics like "average time to pass," there is a bit of context that is needed.  Some QBs hold the ball too long, but their average time to throw gets lowered because of a high number of quick screen type passes.  

My biggest knock on Bryce is that he holds the ball too long.  He turns down throws that are in the natural structure of the play in favor of running around and "making something happen."  That playing style is always going to make an offensive line look worse than it is.  And mixing in a bunch of called quick screens will bring down the average time to pass.

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BrianS Veteran

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15 hours ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

The Brock Purdy thing is so funny to me.  The whole argument about how he's only successful because of the rest of the team, and anybody could do it.  Okay, so why didn't Trey Lance work?  Why did they kick Jimmy G to the curb?

Obviously he's not the best athlete in the NFL, but he's clearly doing something right.  It tickles me because there's a big cross section of people that believe this but don't think a better supporting cast would save Bryce.

Brock Purdy is getting help from the fact that he's on a good team with a good coach, but he's clearly doing something right.  I don't think you could just put any QB in that situation and they would have the same success.

The people who think this about Purdy have clearly forgotten that Sam Darnold is on that team as the backup.  There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Darnold is the more physically gifted QB of the two.  The thing is West Coast systems never valued big arms.  They value intelligence, decisiveness and timing.  These are things Purdy has in spades.

Purdy isn't a system QB, he's a QB that fits the system.  He's Teddy Bridgewater with enough arm to hit the downfield shots that a WC system opens up with it's stretch concepts.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

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15 hours ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

The Brock Purdy thing is so funny to me.  The whole argument about how he's only successful because of the rest of the team, and anybody could do it.  Okay, so why didn't Trey Lance work?  Why did they kick Jimmy G to the curb?

Obviously he's not the best athlete in the NFL, but he's clearly doing something right.  It tickles me because there's a big cross section of people that believe this but don't think a better supporting cast would save Bryce.

Brock Purdy is getting help from the fact that he's on a good team with a good coach, but he's clearly doing something right.  I don't think you could just put any QB in that situation and they would have the same success.

Because Lance and Jimmy G flat out suck. No one is saying Purdy sucks. He's just in an ideal situation. 

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