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5 good players out of 31 draft picks


Hoenheim
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Dennis Daley has carved out a nice little career. A couple of these players could be considered hits relative to their draft position. You’re not really getting boom starters after the 3rd round. The draft isn’t a “lotto where’s its better to have more tickets,” as you see espoused here so often. Still I’d imagine they’d tracking below average.

fitterer’s resume on trades and free agency is where he’s been horrendous.   

Edited by Growl
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Most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are:

16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them

37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.

15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.

10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.

12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.

6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.

1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

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5 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Brutal. And honestly, Chinn is more of an undetermined vs. a checkmark simply because we can't figure out how to utilize him.

Chinn had his most success as a LB and they've refused to play him there since his rookie season. His next team will play him at LB and he'll succeed again, which will of course make the Panthers look even more incompetent.

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5 hours ago, PootieNunu said:

Tons of assets wasted on drafting athletic guys who cant play any fuging position. 

But, but RAS scores. I've seen guys here say you have to take the athletes because you can't coach, speed, strength, etc, but you can teach them how to play football. I've always said give me the guy that can play his position over the pure athlete.

And what's really funny about RAS is nobody here ever talked about it until Rhule and Fitt started doing so. Then people here starting acting like it was super important and mattered.

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7 minutes ago, jayboogieman said:

Chinn had his most success as a LB and they've refused to play him there since his rookie season. His next team will play him at LB and he'll succeed again, which will of course make the Panthers look even more incompetent.

Probably so. I think we hesitated to keep him at LB because other undersized LBs like Deone Bucannon and Deion Jones didn't last but they were really good until the injuries piled up. Plus, Chinn is bigger than those guys anyway and could bulk up more. He was 7 pounds lighter than Shaq was at the Combine. I don't get why we act like he's 200 pounds or something.

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3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Probably so. I think we hesitated to keep him at LB because other undersized LBs like Deone Bucannon and Deion Jones didn't last but they were really good until the injuries piled up. Plus, Chinn is bigger than those guys anyway and could bulk up more. He was 7 pounds lighter than Shaq was at the Combine. I don't get why we act like he's 200 pounds or something.

Luvu, Shaq, and Chinn would probably make a good LB core.

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