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Why Trading Burns is the Only Path to Getting a #1 WR in 2024

tukafan21

By tukafan21,
in Carolina Panthers

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Jacabee Contributor

Jacabee

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34 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Yep, but without a 1st, we can't do that until 2025 and we can't wait that long for Bryce's development.

Again, that's where Burns comes in as I fully expect he can get us the two 1sts that come with the tag.

If we can't flip the 1st for an established WR, we can use it to take one in this draft and then still have another future 1st in our pocket.

Will there be 1 WR’s available mid to late first in this draft class? Just for thought: (a) our 2024 second and our 2025 first to move up and grab a 1 receiver while keeping burns versus (b) two firsts trading burns and spending one to draft a wr. In (b), you’re almost certainly going to need to spend the second first on a pass rusher anyway. 
 

I think I lean (a) if I like the receiver class. Where the burns trade picks land obviously would weigh heavily though. With (b) you also retain the difference in cap between burns’ contract and your first round rookie’s but assume the risk of him not panning out. Set that against the risk in (a) of not being able to timely swing a trade up. 

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top dawg Grand Master

top dawg

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1 hour ago, tukafan21 said:

Here are the top WR's scheduled to hit the market in 2024 Free Agency

Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley, Michael Pittman, Marquise Brown, Curtis Samuel, Gabe Davis, Michael Thomas, Darnell Mooney.

Of them, right away, Mooney, Thomas, Davis, Samuel can be crossed off as they're not #1's (I'd actually love to get Samuel, but he's not the #1 that we need).

Pittman and Ridley won't hit the market, I'm quite confident both will be back with the Colts and Jags respectfully.

Evans, while still has game left to him, isn't the type of #1 we need to give Bryce, he's more of a big possession WR, which we have in Thielen.  We need a quick twitch, fast, outside #1 and that's just not Evans game at this point in his career.  Plus, if he leaves TB, it will be to go to a contender, not just the highest bidder (and that won't be us).

Brown MIGHT fit that definition, but personally, I'm just not sold on him being worth it, I think he's more of a good #2, not a #1.

That leaves Higgins as the only legitimate target among the players we know will be available this offseason.  Odds are he doesn't hit the open market either, he will more than likely be tagged and traded.

The other option is for us to go after a player like Tyreek or AJ Brown in recent years, guys who are due a new contract but their team doesn't want to give them one.  Players who might fall into that category would be someone like DK or maybe Devonta Smith, but those are total guesses and it could be anyone, nobody expected Tyreek to be moved.

If we're going to trade for Higgins or a yet to be known available WR, we'll need either a 1st round pick or an elite player at a different position.

That's Burns or our 2025 First, and I'm not trading that 2025 First to pay out a big money contract for a WR, that wouldn't be smart when we could likely just wait the year and take a WR in the Top 10 or 15 and have them locked in on a rookie contract.

So whether it comes down to trading Burns for the WR or trading him for the picks that we'd then flip for the WR just depends on who is available, who we target, and what those teams want, but all roads point to Burns being the only legitimate asset to get that #1 WR for Bryce next year.

And I don't know about you guys, but if it's Burns or a #1 WR to help Bryce's development, then it's not even a discussion.

I wouldn't call Higgins a "quick twitch, fast WR." Honestly, he's not even as fast as the guys we have now. He's more like a 50-50 ball demigod that makes it 75-25.

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tukafan21 Grand Master

tukafan21

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20 minutes ago, Jacabee said:

Will there be 1 WR’s available mid to late first in this draft class? Just for thought: (a) our 2024 second and our 2025 first to move up and grab a 1 receiver while keeping burns versus (b) two firsts trading burns and spending one to draft a wr. In (b), you’re almost certainly going to need to spend the second first on a pass rusher anyway. 
 

I think I lean (a) if I like the receiver class. Where the burns trade picks land obviously would weigh heavily though. With (b) you also retain the difference in cap between burns’ contract and your first round rookie’s but assume the risk of him not panning out. Set that against the risk in (a) of not being able to timely swing a trade up. 

Unless we're getting Marvin Harrison (which wouldn't happen), in no world am I giving up a probably Top 15, potentially Top 10 pick in 2025 along with our top 2024 pick to take a WR in the middle of the first round.

From what I've read, this is supposed to be one of the deepest 1st round WR drafts in a long time, should be one worth taking mid to late first if we can get one without giving up our 2025 pick.

We still don't know what Bryce is going to be and we're already looking at giving away a top 5 pick in a generational talent QB class, we can't give up the next year's first at this time.

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tukafan21 Grand Master

tukafan21

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Just now, top dawg said:

I wouldn't call Higgins a "quick twitch, fast WR." Honestly, he's not even as fast as the guys we have now. He's more like a 50-50 ball demigod that makes it 75-25.

Agreed, one of my other posts I said he's more in the mold of a Evans, but 6 years younger and a little more shifty, which is why I'd rather overpay to get him than Evans right now.

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tukafan21 Grand Master

tukafan21

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2 minutes ago, Shocker said:

Higgins is a #2.  That is what he is

Fantasy Football #2 is not NFL #2

There are not 32 WRs better than Higgins in the league right now, he's probably in that 15th best WR range.

That's a #2 in fantasy but a #1 in real football

Not every team can get a Top 10 WR, sure I'd love one, but that seems difficult unless a DK type player becomes available due to contracts. 

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Shocker Grand Master

Shocker

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Fantasy Football #2 is not NFL #2

There are not 32 WRs better than Higgins in the league right now, he's probably in that 15th best WR range.

That's a #2 in fantasy but a #1 in real football

Maybe…I wonder what he would do without a #1 opposite him.  He isn’t worth Burns though.  That is stupid

He lacks speed…I don’t see a #1 personally. 

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tukafan21 Grand Master

tukafan21

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2 minutes ago, Shocker said:

Maybe…I wonder what he would do without a #1 opposite him.  He isn’t worth Burns though.  That is stupid

The trade I've wanted to make for a while is Burns + TMJ (get him back with Burrow/Chase) for Higgins and a 1st

And if they don't want to pay Burns, trade Burns for 2 Firsts (yes, I think we can get that) and trade one of them to the Bengals for Higgins after they tag him.

The other trade I'd like to make is Burns + Chark to the Lions for Jameson Williams + First + Fourth

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Varking Grand Master

Varking

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37 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

He's still not a Tyreek, Chase, Jefferson, Diggs, Lamb, Waddle, type of player, that's more of who we need to go after.  It's not just the straight line speed, it's the stop/start quick twitch speed that we need to get Bryce.

I just think Evans is more of a better version of Thielen/Mingo in terms of style of play, we need to add a different type of player to be that #1 and have versatility in our pass catchers, not a bunch of the same style guys.

Higgins isn't quite those guys either, but I think he's closer to it than Evans, and like 6 years younger, which is why I'd rather overpay to get him than go after Evans, it's about overall roster construction.

Tee is the same type of player as Evans but less successful. Tee had a 4.54 40 and Evans was 4.53. 

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top dawg Grand Master

top dawg

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6 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Fantasy Football #2 is not NFL #2

There are not 32 WRs better than Higgins in the league right now, he's probably in that 15th best WR range.

That's a #2 in fantasy but a #1 in real football

I don't know, man. There are receivers coming on that are going to push him down the line. Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, Puka Nacua,  and others. And that's not even all the old heads.

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