How I'd Go About Fixing This Team

[stratocatter]

5 hours ago, Aussie Tank said:

Definitely agree on the quick twitch WR. 

Yeah. When I saw that my next thought was everyone wants a deep threat but that isn'tywhat would pay off. That YAC is the only game in town, playing in such compressed and self imposed boundaries such as they have been doing. 

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

In no world will we trade him for two 2nd's, just won't happen.

I also don't see any scenario where we give him the $30 million a season at this point, if we were both willing to agree to that number, he'd already have been signed.

Remember, there always is a scenario where we put the non-exclusive franchise tag on him and he can't find the contract he's looking for and ends up re-signing with us for much less than we were trying to get him to sign for this past offseason.  

That scenario is also why I fully expect us to get the 2 first value for him in the offseason, I think we rubbed him the wrong way and he's already made the call in his mind that he's not coming back here.  So if push comes to shove and he's not getting the contracts he's wanting out there, if he's willing to take a deal for say $25 million a season from someone else, it will make giving up the 2 firsts for him easier for some other team.

I think Panthers fans have a tendency to view him in a worse light because he's not putting up stupid sack numbers yet this year, but they're disregarding that teams entire offensive gameplan is around slowing him down since we don't have enough other playmakers on defense for teams to worry about.  He's still widely regarded as an elite pass rusher around the league, that in the end will make a difference as well, like the rest of our players we've sent away recently, people will just assume we used him wrong.

I literally said he is a top 10-12 pass rusher. Is that not an elite guy?

The difference is that he isn't one of the pass rushers that just simply takes a game over. Those guys do have elite value. Look at the Khalil Mack trade. That's what trading for an elite pass rusher in their prime looks like. He's also not an elite run stopper, at all. 

There is definitely a world in which we trade him for way less than two firsts. It is the world where we are in that our GM overvalues his trade value yet somehow undervalues his contract amount. All it takes is for that situation to continue and his value drops every single day. Because the rest of the league can read the tea leaves and just simply wait us out.

He isn't going to take $25 mil. He has no reason to take that from us. We showed that we view him as the best defensive player in football, so he has no reason to expect that we shouldn't pay him like that. If he becomes a free agent, I think he will quickly realize he isn't going to command that price tag in free agency(although we are also talking about two years of salary cap bumps, so it's possible he would get close to $30 mil).

I know you believe that it is simply a matter of someone just handing over two firsts when he get tagged but that rarely ever happens. Especially because the player has to actually WANT to go to the franchise that is willing to pay that. So why shell out all that draft capital for a guy you have to sign a long term deal for?

I'll make a healthy wager that he ends up not being a Panther and he will leave here for way less than two first round draft picks.

[UnluckyforSome]

9 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

I know some things are easier said than done and this won't solve all problems, but here's the main things I'd do to help put this team back on the right track.......

Trade Burns by the deadline for 2 Firsts (it's the cost of signing a tagged player, it's possible) or 1 First and a WR (Higgins and Jameson Williams being the two I'd target in a deal like that).  Anything less and we wait and tag him after the season for a deal then.

Either insist on playing Chinn near 100% of defensive snaps once healthy to hopefully entice him to re-sign here in the offseason (option 1 as I think he can still be a stud if actually used), or trade him right now for anything we can get, because at his current usage rate there is a 0% chance he'd consider re-signing here, so why keep him to play him 30% of the snaps in the final 6 games of a dead season and then lose him for nothing.

If we can't find a true outside #1 by the deadline, try and trade for someone like Curtis Samuel (was hoping we'd be in on a Mecole Hardman deal), we need a quick twitch speed guy at WR, let Bryce get the ball in his hands and go to work.  If not, we need to go after someone like that in the offseason almost as much as we need a true outside #1, those players are becoming so useful in today's NFL game, even just with the defense needing to account for that type of speed on the field.

Trade TMJ to the Bengals, I'd like to do it in a trade with Burns to get Higgins and a 1st, but if not, still trade him to them.  With the Burrow/Chase connection, I have to think they'd be interested and likely our best possible trade partner for him to get something in return and hope to unlock his potential next year once Higgins is gone.

Need to keep D-Jax, no he's not the player we wish he'd be, but he's still better than a lot of starting CBs in the league, trading him would only hurt us too much while not getting back enough of an asset to make it worth our while.

Also need to keep Horn unless some team is stupid and offers us a 2nd for him, his potential if healthy is still too good to cut bait on yet.  Hell, if he can come back and finish the season healthy, signing him to a modest 3 year extension with an out after year 1 or 2 might be the best way to go for both parties.

Sign Luvu to a 3 year extension right now, don't let him get to FA in the offseason, get him locked up.

Get Brown locked up this offseason, don't let another Burns situation happen again

Cap room to be spent in order of WR, OG, pass rusher

If we haven't traded Burns by the deadline, use him to get a #1 WR, whether in a direct trade with a team not wanting to give out an extension to a WR like with Tyreek and AJ Brown in recent years, or by trading him to a team for firsts that get used to make the WR trade.

Go into next season with our WRs being... New #1, Thielen in the slot, combination of Mingo and new speedster WR as our top 4, the more Mingo shows by the end of this season, the less that speedster needs to be a legitimate #2 and more of a gadget type.

Assuming healthy and expected starters in Moton, Ickey, Boseman, Corbett... use some of that cap room to fill the last guard spot instead of the draft.  It worked out well with Boseman and Corbett, think it's the right place to use the cap.  We need someone to play at an elite level Week 1 of next year, gotta keep Bryce upright.

Use 2nd rounder (likely pick 33-35ish) on a WR only if one with true elite potential falls and we can't make the above WR moves first, if not, use it on a LB or DB who can be an immediate starter, as I think we are far more likely to hit on a player at those positions with that pick and they're positions of need.

Use 3rd rounder on a pass catching TE, Hurst is okay but he's nothing special, we need to find our TE of the future and the 3rd is a good place to do it if there are worthwhile prospects at that time.

BPA the rest of the way

And last but not least, any of our own future 1st round picks are 100% off the table in any trade discussions right now, even for a true elite #1 WR.  Until we know what Bryce is or can be, we can't trade away any more future 1sts as we need to keep all of them in case we have to take a QB if Bryce isn't working out, and that could be as early as 2025 depending how things go until then.  This is also why I prefer to use Burns in getting our WR, either directly or through 1sts from trading him, as you need a 1st to get a true elite guy, but we can't give away another Top 5 pick potentially as that's just better off on using to draft a Marvin Harrison type on a cheaper contract anyways.

 

Some of those scenarios could be possible, and be a plus. Unless I missed it, what is your plan for pass rush? It sounds like you trade away what we do have, and use the higher picks towards offensive skill.

[tukafan21]

4 hours ago, UnluckyforSome said:

Some of those scenarios could be possible, and be a plus. Unless I missed it, what is your plan for pass rush? It sounds like you trade away what we do have, and use the higher picks towards offensive skill.

It was 3rd in my list of where cap room get spent, WR, OG, then pass rusher to fill what we lose by trading Burns

We can’t fix all our problems in one offseason and if I have to pick between the two, I’d rather have WR fixed than pass rushing as we’re still not going to be contenders next year, while Bryce’s development is our top priority.

[tukafan21]

6 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I literally said he is a top 10-12 pass rusher. Is that not an elite guy?

The difference is that he isn't one of the pass rushers that just simply takes a game over. Those guys do have elite value. Look at the Khalil Mack trade. That's what trading for an elite pass rusher in their prime looks like. He's also not an elite run stopper, at all. 

There is definitely a world in which we trade him for way less than two firsts. It is the world where we are in that our GM overvalues his trade value yet somehow undervalues his contract amount. All it takes is for that situation to continue and his value drops every single day. Because the rest of the league can read the tea leaves and just simply wait us out.

He isn't going to take $25 mil. He has no reason to take that from us. We showed that we view him as the best defensive player in football, so he has no reason to expect that we shouldn't pay him like that. If he becomes a free agent, I think he will quickly realize he isn't going to command that price tag in free agency(although we are also talking about two years of salary cap bumps, so it's possible he would get close to $30 mil).

I know you believe that it is simply a matter of someone just handing over two firsts when he get tagged but that rarely ever happens. Especially because the player has to actually WANT to go to the franchise that is willing to pay that. So why shell out all that draft capital for a guy you have to sign a long term deal for?

I'll make a healthy wager that he ends up not being a Panther and he will leave here for way less than two first round draft picks.

It rarely happens because franchise tagged players almost always end up playing on the tag or signing an extension to stay.

Burns isn’t going to play on the tag when he almost sat this season to begin with, and I don’t think he wants to come back at this point or he’d have signed already, I think he wants out.

 

[Cam Lawter]

Resign Cam and draft BPA

[kungfoodude]

10 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

It rarely happens because franchise tagged players almost always end up playing on the tag or signing an extension to stay.

Burns isn’t going to play on the tag when he almost sat this season to begin with, and I don’t think he wants to come back at this point or he’d have signed already, I think he wants out.

 

I agree. I think he is just over being here and I really doubt that changes. I can't say I blame him.

I also don't think that is really a revelation to the league as a whole. Hence why I say Burns and the rest of the NFL can see all our cards. Our leverage is basically nothing.

[1982heels]

15 hours ago, Tbe said:

The ‘trade our best players for a quick fix’ approach isn’t working. The way to actually fix this roster is to retain our best players, get a coach and GM that can draft well, and do exactly that for 3-4 years. We need starters, but we need depth more.

Slow and steady wins the race. 

Agree 100% 

[heel31ok]

We are in trouble, no matter what, for the next 3 + yrs.

[DaveThePanther2008]

I think Burns could be had for maybe a 1st and a 2nd round pick if the team that trades for him is willing to sign him long-term.  If they are looking for a temporary fix for the remainder of the season I don't see them giving up that much.

Chinn was supposed to be the wild-card for our defense yet his name is barely called.  If an offer came up for him for a 2nd.  I'd take it. 

I think if we are going to dive into the free agent market we need to stop reaching for a "potential stars" and grab legitimate ones.  Chark had one good season and we missed on him.  We let Foreman walk and signed Sanders who is a terrible running back.  He baby-steps to the line and get zero acceleration when he's at the line.  I would have rather kept Foreman. Hurst needs WR to help him get open.  Theilan is the only WR on this team that consistently gets open and sadly for us it is usually the same area of the field our TE would succeed.  If we ever get a legitimate #1 WR things may change for him. 

Mingo was supposed to be a sure thing.  Smitty had him going to use before we selected him.  So far, he's nonexistent and just another cursed 2nd round pick when it comes to WR. 

Barring a major trade with Burns we aren't going to get a 1st round pick.  As of right now we are the top pick in the draft.  So the 2nd round pick at the top of the 2nd round is critical for us.   Too many variables right now but hopefully there is a #1 WR that falls to the top of the 2nd round.  

As far as coaching goes.  I want to see what Brown can do calling the game.  Seems to me when Brown ran the offense in the pre-season it was one of our better performances.  Whoever is making the decision to start Sanders over Hubbard needs to be relieved. Hubbard is clearly the better RB of the two.  It's sad to watch Hubbard get three of four good carries in the first half and then never see him again.

Evero gets a pass this season because switching from 4-3 and 3-4 isn't easy and it shows.  I don't ever remember our run defense being so bad.  So frustrating to see 8,9 and 10+ yards on every running play. 

Fixing this team is going to be brutal.  It can be done but it must be done wisely and so far wisely doesn't seem to fit the description of our front office.