How I'd Go About Fixing This Team

[tukafan21]

I know some things are easier said than done and this won't solve all problems, but here's the main things I'd do to help put this team back on the right track.......

Trade Burns by the deadline for 2 Firsts (it's the cost of signing a tagged player, it's possible) or 1 First and a WR (Higgins and Jameson Williams being the two I'd target in a deal like that).  Anything less and we wait and tag him after the season for a deal then.

Either insist on playing Chinn near 100% of defensive snaps once healthy to hopefully entice him to re-sign here in the offseason (option 1 as I think he can still be a stud if actually used), or trade him right now for anything we can get, because at his current usage rate there is a 0% chance he'd consider re-signing here, so why keep him to play him 30% of the snaps in the final 6 games of a dead season and then lose him for nothing.

If we can't find a true outside #1 by the deadline, try and trade for someone like Curtis Samuel (was hoping we'd be in on a Mecole Hardman deal), we need a quick twitch speed guy at WR, let Bryce get the ball in his hands and go to work.  If not, we need to go after someone like that in the offseason almost as much as we need a true outside #1, those players are becoming so useful in today's NFL game, even just with the defense needing to account for that type of speed on the field.

Trade TMJ to the Bengals, I'd like to do it in a trade with Burns to get Higgins and a 1st, but if not, still trade him to them.  With the Burrow/Chase connection, I have to think they'd be interested and likely our best possible trade partner for him to get something in return and hope to unlock his potential next year once Higgins is gone.

Need to keep D-Jax, no he's not the player we wish he'd be, but he's still better than a lot of starting CBs in the league, trading him would only hurt us too much while not getting back enough of an asset to make it worth our while.

Also need to keep Horn unless some team is stupid and offers us a 2nd for him, his potential if healthy is still too good to cut bait on yet.  Hell, if he can come back and finish the season healthy, signing him to a modest 3 year extension with an out after year 1 or 2 might be the best way to go for both parties.

Sign Luvu to a 3 year extension right now, don't let him get to FA in the offseason, get him locked up.

Get Brown locked up this offseason, don't let another Burns situation happen again

Cap room to be spent in order of WR, OG, pass rusher

If we haven't traded Burns by the deadline, use him to get a #1 WR, whether in a direct trade with a team not wanting to give out an extension to a WR like with Tyreek and AJ Brown in recent years, or by trading him to a team for firsts that get used to make the WR trade.

Go into next season with our WRs being... New #1, Thielen in the slot, combination of Mingo and new speedster WR as our top 4, the more Mingo shows by the end of this season, the less that speedster needs to be a legitimate #2 and more of a gadget type.

Assuming healthy and expected starters in Moton, Ickey, Boseman, Corbett... use some of that cap room to fill the last guard spot instead of the draft.  It worked out well with Boseman and Corbett, think it's the right place to use the cap.  We need someone to play at an elite level Week 1 of next year, gotta keep Bryce upright.

Use 2nd rounder (likely pick 33-35ish) on a WR only if one with true elite potential falls and we can't make the above WR moves first, if not, use it on a LB or DB who can be an immediate starter, as I think we are far more likely to hit on a player at those positions with that pick and they're positions of need.

Use 3rd rounder on a pass catching TE, Hurst is okay but he's nothing special, we need to find our TE of the future and the 3rd is a good place to do it if there are worthwhile prospects at that time.

BPA the rest of the way

And last but not least, any of our own future 1st round picks are 100% off the table in any trade discussions right now, even for a true elite #1 WR.  Until we know what Bryce is or can be, we can't trade away any more future 1sts as we need to keep all of them in case we have to take a QB if Bryce isn't working out, and that could be as early as 2025 depending how things go until then.  This is also why I prefer to use Burns in getting our WR, either directly or through 1sts from trading him, as you need a 1st to get a true elite guy, but we can't give away another Top 5 pick potentially as that's just better off on using to draft a Marvin Harrison type on a cheaper contract anyways.

 

[Tbe]

The ‘trade our best players for a quick fix’ approach isn’t working. The way to actually fix this roster is to retain our best players, get a coach and GM that can draft well, and do exactly that for 3-4 years. We need starters, but we need depth more.

Slow and steady wins the race. 

[tukafan21]

16 minutes ago, Tbe said:

The ‘trade our best players for a quick fix’ approach isn’t working. The way to actually fix this roster is to retain our best players, get a coach and GM that can draft well, and do exactly that for 3-4 years. We need starters, but we need depth more.

Slow and steady wins the race. 

None of what I said is a quick fix and I suggested keeping/re-signing more players than I suggested trading.

I'm only recommending trading 2 players, one we can't re-sign and one who is a bust who is dropping passes the few times he gets on the field.  The one we can't re-sign has the type of value that in a trade, it will help us fill our biggest hole and the #1 priority this team has, getting Bryce a #1 WR to help his development.  At this point, trading a pass rusher for a WR is just better for this team, much easier to find pass rushing through a rotation of players than it is to get elite WR performance, as we've seen.

I said in there I don't want to trade Chinn, but if we're not going to use him once healthy, there really is zero reason to not just take anything offered since it's a 100% chance he'll leave in FA and he'll only be back for the final 6ish games of the season anyways.

Everything I had in there was just the first phase of fixing this team, as like you said, it won't be done in one offseason.  But they're the realistic moves I'd make in the next 8 months with our draft picks, cap room and Burns' trade value, I think getting a #1 WR and a top level starting guard in FA is absolutely do-able.

Edited October 22, 2023 by tukafan21

[Aussie Tank]

Definitely agree on the quick twitch WR. 

[CamWhoaaCam]

Everybody wants to be a gm. Unfortunately things don't play out that way. This real life not Madden. Maybe submit your application and Tepper may hire you.

 

Not hating on your plan btw. Good plan just not "realistic".

[tukafan21]

8 minutes ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

Everybody wants to be a gm. Unfortunately things don't play out that way. This real life not Madden. Maybe submit your application and Tepper may hire you.

 

Not hating on your plan btw. Good plan just not "realistic".

name one non-realistic suggestion I made in there... I'll save you the time, there isn't one.

They might not be able to accomplish everything I put there, but there isn't one thing that isn't reasonable or would work within our cap limit. 

Literally the "craziest" idea is trading Burns for a WR + 1st or 2 Firsts, both of which are very reasonable.

And if you say it's not realistic because you don't trust Fitterer or Tepper to make the moves, that also doesn't count because the whole point is they keep screwing up, they need to just make the easy and obvious choices in front of them for a change, which are the things I proposed here.

[CamWhoaaCam]

13 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

name one non-realistic suggestion I made in there... I'll save you the time, there isn't one.

They might not be able to accomplish everything I put there, but there isn't one thing that isn't reasonable or would work within our cap limit. 

Literally the "craziest" idea is trading Burns for a WR + 1st or 2 Firsts, both of which are very reasonable.

And if you say it's not realistic because you don't trust Fitterer or Tepper to make the moves, that also doesn't count because the whole point is they keep screwing up, they need to just make the easy and obvious choices in front of them for a change, which are the things I proposed here.

Burns for 2 1st is a start.

 

Last year price is not today price. 

[kungfoodude]

The way to fix this team is:

- Get competent front office personnel.

- Identify core players that can be retained for market rates or lower(Brown, Luvu, etc)

- Move on from assets you don't plan on retaining(Burns, Chinn, etc) to obtain draft capital.

- Draft competently. 

 

That's literally it. We have no other option but to abandon this idea of "quick fixes" every fuging offseason. Build for the long term. We have to give up on this idea of being a competitive team in the near term. It's unlikely to happen. We were "rebuilt" very poorly by two bad GM's and head coaches. That damage has to be undone and a new core built.

We literally already traded away two of our top 4 most valuable roster assets in the last year for draft capital. This process already started anyway.

[tukafan21]

7 minutes ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

Burns for 2 1st is a start.

 

Last year price is not today price. 

Again, as has been explained many times before, 2 firsts mid-season is going to be tough to get again, because nobody will be sure they can get him signed to a long term deal.

But it costs 2 firsts to sign a franchise tagged player, and there is about a 95% chance someone will sign him if we put the non-exclusive tag on him, and that might be a low estimate.  Teams will look at the cost of 2 firsts as totally fair when they're doing it because they were already able to work out a long term deal with him and know they have him locked up.

Hence why if we can't get that for him by the deadline, I said we should wait to trade him in the offseason.

 

[kungfoodude]

8 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Again, as has been explained many times before, 2 firsts mid-season is going to be tough to get again, because nobody will be sure they can get him signed to a long term deal.

But it costs 2 firsts to sign a franchise tagged player, and there is about a 95% chance someone will sign him if we put the non-exclusive tag on him, and that might be a low estimate.  Teams will look at the cost of 2 firsts as totally fair when they're doing it because they were already able to work out a long term deal with him and know they have him locked up.

Hence why if we can't get that for him by the deadline, I said we should wait to trade him in the offseason.

 

I really doubt many teams in the NFL would have interest in taking him for two firsts if he gets franchised.

Our fans massively overrate his market value. He's a top 10-12 pass rusher in the league but two firsts is a haul that is reserved for truly elite players or very high draft positions. 

The only teams that might make even a little sense for would be someone like the Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, etc. Teams that expected to have very low first round picks in the next few years.

But even that is unlikely because they have cap issues they need to manage already. Not to mention all of these franchises have very well run front offices that actually get pretty good value from their draft picks.

Edited October 22, 2023 by kungfoodude

[tukafan21]

36 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I really doubt many teams in the NFL would have interest in taking him for two firsts if he gets franchised.

Our fans massively overrate his market value. He's a top 10-12 pass rusher in the league but two firsts is a haul that is reserved for truly elite players or very high draft positions. 

The only teams that might make even a little sense for would be someone like the Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, etc. Teams that expected to have very low first round picks in the next few years.

But even that is unlikely because they have cap issues they need to manage already. Not to mention all of these franchises have very well run front offices that actually get pretty good value from their draft picks.

I think our fan base actually undervalues what his true NFL open market value would be, particularly to a team with a defense with other great pieces.  He's stuck on a team right now that is constantly playing from behind, doesn't have another pass rusher, and is struggling in the secondary.  Put him on a team with players at those positions and it will give him less double teams and more time to get to the passer, he'll dominate.

I think in the end, the most likely scenario is that we end up getting a 2 first round equivalent for him, but maybe not 2 firsts.

And by that I mean a first plus a really good player for him, or maybe a 1st, 2nd, and a good non WR

One possibility is like you said, the Eagles, where I could see them wanting to only pay 1 of their WRs and instead of signing one of them to an extension, they trade Smith to not have to extend him at a big number.

If JSN comes on strong in the second half of the season, I could see the Seahawks parting with DK and a 1st potentially.  I think they'd be more likely to trade Lockett in the offseason, but he's not one I think we'd have interest in, which is really the only reason I said DK there.

For all I know, neither of those teams would be interested in trading those WRs, but I'm guessing someone out there will be willing to give up a First and a WR for a pass rusher with Burns' potential. 

I also still see a very real possibility of a trade with the Bengals, they could tag Higgins so they can trade him, we could swap Burns for Higgins and a late 1st at that point much easier than we could in-season before the deadline.

Edited October 22, 2023 by tukafan21

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

I think our fan base actually undervalues what his true NFL open market value would be, particularly to a team with a defense with other great pieces.  He's stuck on a team right now that is constantly playing from behind, doesn't have another pass rusher, and is struggling in the secondary.  Put him on a team with players at those positions and it will give him less double teams and more time to get to the passer, he'll dominate.

I think in the end, the most likely scenario is that we end up getting a 2 first round equivalent for him, but maybe not 2 firsts.

And by that I mean a first plus a really good player for him, or maybe a 1st, 2nd, and a good non WR

One possibility is like you said, the Eagles, where I could see them wanting to only pay 1 of their WRs and instead of signing one of them to an extension, they trade Smith to not have to extend him at a big number.

If JSN comes on strong in the second half of the season, I could see the Seahawks parting with DK and a 1st potentially.  I think they'd be more likely to trade Lockett in the offseason, but he's not one I think we'd have interest in, which is really the only reason I said DK there.

For all I know, neither of those teams would be interested in trading those WRs, but I'm guessing someone out there will be willing to give up a First and a WR for a pass rusher with Burns' potential. 

I also still see a very real possibility of a trade with the Bengals, they could tag Higgins so they can trade him, we could swap Burns for Higgins and a late 1st at that point much easier than we could in-season before the deadline.

My guess is that we trade him as soon as Scott Fitterer is gone. I suspect something in the range of a 1st and 3rd or 4th rounder. Possibly two 2nds. Something far less than what you are describing.

If Fitterer sticks around long term, my guess would be changed to he just walks away when we can't tag him anymore and we get absolutely nothing.

Or, the real nightmare, we actually sign him for $30+mil a year and we always look back at this as the worst deal we have ever given a DL. Making the Charles Johnson contract look pretty amazing in comparison. 

[tukafan21]

45 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

My guess is that we trade him as soon as Scott Fitterer is gone. I suspect something in the range of a 1st and 3rd or 4th rounder. Possibly two 2nds. Something far less than what you are describing.

If Fitterer sticks around long term, my guess would be changed to he just walks away when we can't tag him anymore and we get absolutely nothing.

Or, the real nightmare, we actually sign him for $30+mil a year and we always look back at this as the worst deal we have ever given a DL. Making the Charles Johnson contract look pretty amazing in comparison. 

In no world will we trade him for two 2nd's, just won't happen.

I also don't see any scenario where we give him the $30 million a season at this point, if we were both willing to agree to that number, he'd already have been signed.

Remember, there always is a scenario where we put the non-exclusive franchise tag on him and he can't find the contract he's looking for and ends up re-signing with us for much less than we were trying to get him to sign for this past offseason.  

That scenario is also why I fully expect us to get the 2 first value for him in the offseason, I think we rubbed him the wrong way and he's already made the call in his mind that he's not coming back here.  So if push comes to shove and he's not getting the contracts he's wanting out there, if he's willing to take a deal for say $25 million a season from someone else, it will make giving up the 2 firsts for him easier for some other team.

I think Panthers fans have a tendency to view him in a worse light because he's not putting up stupid sack numbers yet this year, but they're disregarding that teams entire offensive gameplan is around slowing him down since we don't have enough other playmakers on defense for teams to worry about.  He's still widely regarded as an elite pass rusher around the league, that in the end will make a difference as well, like the rest of our players we've sent away recently, people will just assume we used him wrong.

[mickeye76]

Without a 1st this upcoming draft and it being a fair amount of time away an early mock and FA is silly.  But I'm a silly goose. 

Luvu and Brown are the priorities. Let Burns get paid by someone else.  Resign Troy Hill and Sam Franklin. Both have played well as next man up. Can't believe I'm saying this but CJ Henderson has also improved and is worthy of resigning.  

Now to players to bring in. Let's bring Tee Higgins in. Is he a number 1 WR?  In this offense it's likely. Pair him with Mingo and Adam.  Since we are cutting Burns loose I would add a pass rusher or two in FA.  

Lastly the far off draft. Art 33 we take Rocket. Arkansas RB who does a pretty good Derrick Henry imitation. A big back with burst that could give our running game some identity. Him, Chuba, and Shenault would be a hard hitting committee. At 65 Oregon St has a bulldozer RT.  We need to get meaner and protect Young.  A shuffle of the oline.  Heer me out 

LT - Moton LG - Corbett OC - Boze RG - Rookie RT - Ikey 

That's a run blocking machine up front. Pass protection not so much but that right side would play to Ikem's strength and bring him along a bit slower. His draft position and decent rookie season has pushed him a bit too fast.  I think Moton could hold down the left. In the modern NFL both tackles need to be decent in pass pro.  He is also our highest paid lineman and a veteran. Let's put more on his plate and ease up on the second year kid playing out of position.  

So the plan is run the ball down folks throats, use more TE's in to block, use the screen as an extension of the running game, hope Mingo and Tee can get the passing game going, and let Adam work that middle moving the chains. 

I know it's a lot. But the identity is "do your job, next man up and keep pounding"  no superstars.  No big money pass rusher.  Moneyball style of roster building.