REPORT: Panthers and Brian Burns not at all close to extension

[carpanfan96]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Emotion has no place in negotiations.  When buying a car, a house, etc--you go in with emotions like, "This is the best house EVER!!!!" and you will certainly pay through the nose, only to later realize that you got the house you wanted, but now can't afford the car you want. 

Burns was probably waiting for the Bosa deal knowing it would increase his property value, but that does not mean he is worth Bosa money. I am guessing 4 years, $112m.

We already have good estimates on the contract being 5 years and around 140m. 

[MHS831]

3 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

We already have good estimates on the contract being 5 years and around 140m. 

I have not been able to keep up--but that is the same yearly figure I estimated.  2 million per sack if he has a good year. Yikes.

[KSpan]

15 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

No, he doesn't, not sure why you're telling me I'm wrong for a second time now instead of just a quick google search of Burns.

He was drafted in 2019 and his rookie contract covered 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, with this year, 2023 being the 5th year option for first round picks.

He has 0 years left on his contract after this year, if we do not re-sign him or franchise tag him, he is an unrestricted free agent when FA starts in 2024.

 

I don't know how to be any clearer on this situational difference. When CJ was re-signed, it was after the season and his contract was done. He was entirely free and clear, zero more games to play under a Carolina contract and could have signed with anyone. They had already franchise-tagged Ryan Kalil, so that wasn't an option with CJ. He had also just really emerged in 2010 so it was a risk, but it explained why they didn't offer him big money in-season like they're now negotiating with Burns.

Burns is under contract for this current season. He has 17 more games to play for Carolina under the current contract. His contract is not fulfilled until this coming February. He has also been on the re-signing radar for years, unlike CJ, and they are just now dealing with it. 

Edited September 7, 2023 by KSpan

[MHS831]

1. QB

2. LT

3. Edge Rushers

The NFL Players association needs to get a grip on this.  The extra monies from raising the cap have gone to the top three most important positions--That has caused positions like RB to be devalued--so the RBs are paying for the top 2-3 players on each team to earn much more than the average.

You could argue that is fair, but if you consider the perspective of the union, I eventually see a position cap implemented to help share the wealth.  You do not have to do in by position--you could do it by percentages of the cap--but if this keeps going, a good QB will be earning $100m per year--or 40% of the cap, for example.  Interesting to see if and how they address this

[tukafan21]

Just now, KSpan said:

I don't know how to be any clearer on this situational difference. When CJ was re-signed, it was after the season and his contract was done. He was entirely free and clear, zero more games to play under a Carolina contract and could have signed with anyone. They had already franchise-tagged Ryan Kalil, so that wasn't an option with CJ. He had also just really emerged in 2010 so it was a risk, but it explained why they didn't offer him big money in-season like they're now negotiating with Burns.

Burns is under contract for this current season. He has 17 more games to play for Carolina under said the current contract. His contract is not fulfilled until this coming February. He has also been on the re-signing radar for years, unlike CJ, and they are just now dealing with it. 

And everything you just said is more of a reason to overpay him right now.

His price isn't going down after this season unless he plays 17 games and puts up like 5 sacks, which flat out isn't happening.

Even an average season and someone would throw bags of money at him next year and explain it away as the change in system and getting him back in a 4-3 as a DE will unlock him again.  Which full disclosure I don't think would even ever happen, I'd be shocked if he had less than 12 sacks this year (assuming he plays a full year) and I fully expect it to be over 15.

For a guy you can sign right now for about 28-30 million a season, you can't let him go out and put up 15 sacks and become a FA as we'll then have to beat what Bosa just got, because if not, someone else would.  Hell, if he did that and we franchise tagged him, I'm quite sure some teams out there would just sign him and fork over the 2 first round picks to do it.

Just slightly overpay for him now and it will look like a bargain when in 2 years he's the 10th highest paid pass rusher.

[KSpan]

7 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

And everything you just said is more of a reason to overpay him right now.

His price isn't going down after this season unless he plays 17 games and puts up like 5 sacks, which flat out isn't happening.

Even an average season and someone would throw bags of money at him next year and explain it away as the change in system and getting him back in a 4-3 as a DE will unlock him again.  Which full disclosure I don't think would even ever happen, I'd be shocked if he had less than 12 sacks this year (assuming he plays a full year) and I fully expect it to be over 15.

For a guy you can sign right now for about 28-30 million a season, you can't let him go out and put up 15 sacks and become a FA as we'll then have to beat what Bosa just got, because if not, someone else would.  Hell, if he did that and we franchise tagged him, I'm quite sure some teams out there would just sign him and fork over the 2 first round picks to do it.

Just slightly overpay for him now and it will look like a bargain when in 2 years he's the 10th highest paid pass rusher.

It really doesn't matter now since Burns has all the leverage and Carolian already showed their hand. They screwed themselves and/or Burns played his strengthened hand when they declined the trade and didn't get a contract done. 

And IMO they didn't really overpay for CJ, or at least not much. He was a more complete player than Burns and was still a high-quality pass rusher for the first 3+ years of the contract, with that Patriot leg-whip seeming to be a turning point. That's my issue - they are going to overpay Burns for being a less complete player and screwed the pooch by not getting it done sooner if the intent all along was to keep him.

Again though, it is what it is at this point. Burns is here, he's going to eat a ton of salary cap, and I hope he shows up like he hasn't done before by becoming a more complete player, actually making big plays at opportune/big times, or both. I'm also not sure why you're expecting so many more sacks since he'll still be playing the 4-3 end role most of the time in the nickel/dime packages unless they go primarily with a 3-3-5, which I doubt based on the DL roster. Hope that's the case though.

Edited September 7, 2023 by KSpan

[CRA]

15 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

1. QB

2. LT

3. Edge Rushers

The NFL Players association needs to get a grip on this.  The extra monies from raising the cap have gone to the top three most important positions--That has caused positions like RB to be devalued--so the RBs are paying for the top 2-3 players on each team to earn much more than the average.

You could argue that is fair, but if you consider the perspective of the union, I eventually see a position cap implemented to help share the wealth.  You do not have to do in by position--you could do it by percentages of the cap--but if this keeps going, a good QB will be earning $100m per year--or 40% of the cap, for example.  Interesting to see if and how they address this

top tier WRs are getting more guaranteed money than the top OTs. 

highest amount of guaranteed money in a OT contract presently is 64M.  Several WR ahead of that.   Same for CBs, several ahead of the lead OT in terms of guaranteed money. 

[Castavar]

5 minutes ago, KSpan said:

It really doesn't matter now since Burns has all the leverage and Carolian already showed their hand. They screwed themselves and/or Burns played his strengthened hand when they declined the trade and didn't get a contract done. 

And IMO they didn't really overpay for CJ, or at least not much. He was a more complete player than Burns and was still a high-quality pass rusher for the first 3+ years of the contract, with that Patriot leg-whip seeming to be a turning point. That's my issue - they are going to overpay Burns for being a less complete player and screwed the pooch by not getting it done sooner if the intent all along was to keep him.

Again though, it is what it is at this point. Burns is here, he's going to eat a ton of salary cap, and I hope he shows up like he hasn't done before by becoming a more complete player, actually making big plays at opportune/big times, or both. I'm also not sure why you're expecting so many more sacks since he'll still be playing the 4-3 end role most of the time in the nickel/dime packages unless they go primarily with a 3-3-5, which I doubt based on the DL roster. Hope that's the case though.

Piss poor management. 1) The fact that they didn't accept that trade of two 1st rounders and a 2nd 2) The fact that AFTER they declined the traded, didn't offer him a new contract right then and there 3) Waited until near season to finally get serious with contract negotiations 4) Now we are going to overpay for a pass rushing specialist who is terrible in run defense.

Just terrible decisions all around, and our record over the years have shown it.

[mrcompletely11]

8 minutes ago, Castavar said:

Piss poor management. 1) The fact that they didn't accept that trade of two 1st rounders and a 2nd 2) The fact that AFTER they declined the traded, didn't offer him a new contract right then and there 3) Waited until near season to finally get serious with contract negotiations 4) Now we are going to overpay for a pass rushing specialist who is terrible in run defense.

Just terrible decisions all around, and our record over the years have shown it.

rejecting that trade is going to haunt this franchise for a while

[KSpan]

6 minutes ago, Castavar said:

Piss poor management. 1) The fact that they didn't accept that trade of two 1st rounders and a 2nd 2) The fact that AFTER they declined the traded, didn't offer him a new contract right then and there 3) Waited until near season to finally get serious with contract negotiations 4) Now we are going to overpay for a pass rushing specialist who is terrible in run defense.

Just terrible decisions all around, and our record over the years have shown it.

I like Burns - he is a very, very good pass rusher. Carolina could sink (and has sunk) crazy money into way worse players, and it's still possible that Burns takes an even bigger leap. However, that was a crazy trade package they turned down and I definitely don't understand the contract management strategy.  

[TheSpecialJuan]

https://x.com/willkunkelfox/status/1699887364661985531?s=46&t=xeIgh_-Vr2aKxBkBJdfnKA

[CamWhoaaCam]

21 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

rejecting that trade is going to haunt this franchise for a while

Yeah we sure missed out on those unproven picks...

 

Maybe one of them would have replaced Burns or even be half as good as Burns. The other pick who knows. Nothing like unproven talent!

[Smithers]

Burns obviously doesn’t have all the leverage or he’d have a deal by now.  Last season Wilks made due with YGM, Burns and Brown as our top linemen.  We still have YGM and Brown, and have Houston who is arguably a more complete player than Burns even at this point in his career.  Don’t forget that Luvu had 7 sacks last season as well, and will likely play a big role in this defense.  We are better with Burns on the field.  But without him, we aren’t any worse off than we were last year.  

[tukafan21]

1 minute ago, Smithers said:

Burns obviously doesn’t have all the leverage or he’d have a deal by now.  Last season Wilks made due with YGM, Burns and Brown as our top linemen.  We still have YGM and Brown, and have Houston who is arguably a more complete player than Burns even at this point in his career.  Don’t forget that Luvu had 7 sacks last season as well, and will likely play a big role in this defense.  We are better with Burns on the field.  But without him, we aren’t any worse off than we were last year.  

Burns having all the leverage is exactly why he doesn't have a deal yet, because he's really holding out for absolute maximum top dollar.  If the team had even the slightest bit of leverage, they'd have been able to get him to come down on his demands a bit and the deal would be done.

Literally the only leverage the team has is that he's under contract this year and if he sits out, he losses about $1 million per game.  But even that is only minimal leverage as he knows how important he is to the team, we can't really afford to let him do that as it would significantly hurt out chances of winning games.

Once we turned down 2 first and it went public that we did so, we never had even an ounce of leverage in this negotiation.