Lions week news

[ForJimmy]

We just had this Vegas talk with our pick. Stroud was favored by a lot then Young then Levis randomly one day. As long as people are betting against each other and they are making money, they could care less how accurate it is.

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

3 games is pretty big especially when they aren’t picking 17-0 or 0-17. It can be a 6 game swing for us between 10.5 and 4.5 wins.

Right.  Beating the expectations by 3+ is pretty rare.  Even if we beat it by 2 (which it appears the more likely scenario) I still dont think 9 wins gets us either the wild card or division simply based on history.  But I will be clear 9 wins in 2023 would be fuging awesome and would set us up perfectly for 24.  That said I think we win 7 maybe 8 games at most.

[ForJimmy]

8 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Right.  Beating the expectations by 3+ is pretty rare.  Even if we beat it by 2 (which it appears the more likely scenario) I still dont think 9 wins gets us either the wild card or division simply based on history.  But I will be clear 9 wins in 2023 would be fuging awesome and would set us up perfectly for 24.  That said I think we win 7 maybe 8 games at most.

That’s understandable. 7-8 is probably the safest prediction given all the changes, but honestly everything is still a big question mark right now. Young has had a handful of snaps and we have barely played any starters/schemes so far. 

[TheCasillas]

51 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I was using the 3 more wins then expected in regards to the playoffs or winning the division talk.  My bad if I wasnt clear but I think to win the division or make the wild card we more then likely have to win double digit games.  Sorry if that wasnt clear.  But the overall premise was that more times then not vegas is pretty fuging close about how our season plays out and from the initial scan of other teams in other years its pretty close as well.  Like I said once things slow down I will try and import expectations vs wins and see what the averages are and some of the variances to get a better understanding.

pretty simple stuff right here:

Opening season spreads (bets made before season starts): 

As you can see, it is all over the place, and there is no tight pattern or tight trend line showing that Vegas is right.

 

Now compare it to the final season spreads (betting made midseason-end season):

Trend line is evident and house wins. 

 

 

Early season gambling is the best point in the season for people to gamble, Vegas doesnt have the data yet to support their spreads.... That's why taking bets on the whether a team beats their record prediction, wins their division, wins a playoff game, goes to the super bowl, and wins the super bowl are the ones we hear big stories about toward the end of the season. It's the one chance we as gamblers have an even playing field with Vegas.

Edited August 25, 2023 by TheCasillas

[panthers320]

16 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

vegas doesnt guess, its based on facts and metrics, they have been pretty spot on in regards to us for the past 3ish years.   So I keep telling all the guys that think we are winning the south put your money where your mouth is, its right there, 7 wins

Vegas doesnt use facts and the only metric they use is money. their goal is to have equal number of people on the over and the under so they can collect the vig. They set a line not based on facts or what they think will happen but on what they think other people will think will happen. So at 7.5 Vegas thinks there will be an equal number of people who think the Panthers will win 8 or more games as they do people who think they will win 7 or fewers games. 

[ForJimmy]

1 minute ago, panthers320 said:

Vegas doesnt use facts and the only metric they use is money. their goal is to have equal number of people on the over and the under so they can collect the vig. They set a line not based on facts or what they think will happen but on what they think other people will think will happen. So at 7.5 Vegas thinks there will be an equal number of people who think the Panthers will win 8 or more games as they do people who think they will win 7 or fewers games. 

Well said. All they care about is making money, not being right. 

[csx]

4 hours ago, TheCasillas said:

pretty simple stuff right here:

Opening season spreads (bets made before season starts): 

As you can see, it is all over the place, and there is no tight pattern or tight trend line showing that Vegas is right.

 

Now compare it to the final season spreads (betting made midseason-end season):

Trend line is evident and house wins. 

 

 

Early season gambling is the best point in the season for people to gamble, Vegas doesnt have the data yet to support their spreads.... That's why taking bets on the whether a team beats their record prediction, wins their division, wins a playoff game, goes to the super bowl, and wins the super bowl are the ones we hear big stories about toward the end of the season. It's the one chance we as gamblers have an even playing field with Vegas.

I believe he was saying preseason Vegas win totals were an accurate prediction not how money is placed. Betters try to make money going against the grain.

Edited August 25, 2023 by csx

[TheCasillas]

12 minutes ago, csx said:

I believe he was saying preseason Vegas win totals were an accurate prediction not how money is placed. Betters try to make money going against the grain.

but the point is that they are not. History shows that they are only about half right year to year. 

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

but the point is that they are not. History shows that they are only about half right year to year. 

It depends on what you are calling right.  Dead on the win totals?  One off?   Two off?

[TheCasillas]

3 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

It depends on what you are calling right.  Dead on the win totals?  One off?   Two off?

how can you be dead on with 7.5 predicted wins?

[mrcompletely11]

Just now, TheCasillas said:

how can you be dead on with 7.5 predicted wins?

That what I was asking you?   What is a fair assessment to say Vegas is generally right about the win totals?

[TheCasillas]

3 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

That what I was asking you?   What is a fair assessment to say Vegas is generally right about the win totals?

[mrcompletely11]

11 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

doing the math in my head off my phone it looks like 15 teams went over

2.5

1.5

.5

2.5

1.5

2.5

2.5

3.5 KC

.5

3,5 Vike

1.5

1.5

4.5 Eagles

3.5

 

I will double check the math when I get back but that appears they average for the 15 teams over is 2.3.   So slightly less then half the league went over for an average of 2 extra wins.   So I would say A)Vegas is pretty good at this and B) my overall general statement even if we beat the expectations and we fall to the average its going to be really hard to win the division or make the wild card.  COuld it happen sure, do the stats and historical performances match up.  Nope

I hope I am wrong but I have watched this team far too long for them to surprise me in a positive way

 

Edit to say:  The 3 teams that went over 3 wins were 3 of the best teams in the 2022 regular season

Edited August 25, 2023 by mrcompletely11

[TheCasillas]

2 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

doing the math in my head off my phone it looks like 15 teams went over

2.5

1.5

.5

2.5

1.5

2.5

2.5

3.5 KC

.5

3,5 Vike

1.5

1.5

4.5 Eagles

3.5

 

I will double check the math when I get back but that appears they average for the 15 teams over is 2.3.   So slightly less then half the league went over for an average of 2 extra wins.   So I would say A)Vegas is pretty good at this and B) my overall general statement even if we beat the expectations and we fall to the average its going to be really hard to win the division or make the wild card.  COuld it happen sure, do the stats and historical performances match up.  Nope

I hope I am wrong but I have watched this team far too long for them to surprise me in a positive way

 

Edit to say:  The 3 teams that went over 3 wins were 3 of the best teams in the 2022 regular season

Vegas doesnt set the ceiling... you know being under means they are wrong too, right? Why are you just counting the overs? Gambling goes both under/over....