Bootleg Football[ft. Brett Kollman]: The Panthers are actually a sneaky good team?

[onmyown]

15 hours ago, csx said:

2008 Ravens won 2 playoff games with rookie Flacco and rookie coach Harbough.

2008 Falcons made playoffs with rookie Matt Ryan and rookie HC Mike Smith

2009 Jets win 2 playoff games with rookies Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan.

2012 Colts made playoffs with Rookies Luck and Pagano

 

 

 

 

 

 

So four times in how many years? 30? 40? Longer?

All I am saying is playoffs, deep even, seem to be an expectation for some on this forum and the knee jerk threads are annoying. Some of the best QBs of all time, actually most, had garbage first years.

And even great HCs had crap first years as well…even if it was just being a HC for a new team.

Edited July 22, 2023 by onmyown

[panthers55]

4 hours ago, Carl Spackler said:

Just calling it like I see it. No reason not to have some optimism, but I think this year's gonna be less successful than others think. But, next year will be better.

I know we both hope you are wrong.

[CPcavedweller]

On 7/19/2023 at 6:52 PM, PootieNunu said:

Johnathan Taylor had 1800 yards and 18 TDs on 332 attempts in Reich's offense just 2 seasons ago....

I dont think Wilks has ever produced a running game close to that level. 

They also had the leagues best offensive line that year. Not really a great comparison.

[csx]

Brett Kollman

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Csjg8RDpB0Z/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

[Diehardpanth02]

On 7/19/2023 at 10:03 PM, t96 said:

Bryce is the big unknown. If he’s the real deal we could be an 11-12+ win team. If he’s not or takes time to get there we may not be a playoff team but we should still be no worse than last year.

I think we have to see an improvement over last year or the hype around this coaching staff is for not. Ive always felt for you to be successful you need good football sense and talent. And on paper we have done both. So anything Equal to or worse than last year gives me serious concern.

[Sgt Schultz]

18 hours ago, onmyown said:

So four times in how many years? 30? 40? Longer?

All I am saying is playoffs, deep even, seem to be an expectation for some on this forum and the knee jerk threads are annoying. Some of the best QBs of all time, actually most, had garbage first years.

And even great HCs had crap first years as well…even if it was just being a HC for a new team.

Let's keep in mind that the NFL has lowered the bar for making the playoffs.  40 years ago 10 teams qualified out of 30, exactly 1 in 3.  In 1989 that expanded to 12 of 30 (40%) and then 12 of 32 (37.5%).  Now it is 14 of 32 (43.75%).  Personally, I thought 12 was plenty but they don't ask me.

Even a team that is shooting at breaking .500 is in that mix.  With 14 teams, almost every year a team that is 9-8 will get an invitation. 

Add that to being in a division that does not look like a stable of thoroughbreds (in a conference that does not look like a thoroughbred stable, either) and the door is open.

My expectation is that they are in the mix for the division in December.  How that unfolds will depend on how much progress Atlanta has made and whether New Orleans can keep the wheels on for another year.

As others have said, the Panthers could improve and not have it reflected in their record.  Although, given the schedule (based on what we think we know today), that is probably unlikely.  But, they don't need to roll 10 or 11 wins, let alone have a deep playoff run to be improved.

[Gerry Green]

15 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

Let's keep in mind that the NFL has lowered the bar for making the playoffs.  40 years ago 10 teams qualified out of 30, exactly 1 in 3.  In 1989 that expanded to 12 of 30 (40%) and then 12 of 32 (37.5%).  Now it is 14 of 32 (43.75%).  Personally, I thought 12 was plenty but they don't ask me.

Even a team that is shooting at breaking .500 is in that mix.  With 14 teams, almost every year a team that is 9-8 will get an invitation. 

Add that to being in a division that does not look like a stable of thoroughbreds (in a conference that does not look like a thoroughbred stable, either) and the door is open.

My expectation is that they are in the mix for the division in December.  How that unfolds will depend on how much progress Atlanta has made and whether New Orleans can keep the wheels on for another year.

As others have said, the Panthers could improve and not have it reflected in their record.  Although, given the schedule (based on what we think we know today), that is probably unlikely.  But, they don't need to roll 10 or 11 wins, let alone have a deep playoff run to be improved.

 

IMO, it all comes down to Bryce. This team is set up to compete IF Bryce can play at the level most feel he is capable of playing. If he even sniffs ROY we should be able to compete with almost anyone. Of course, there is a possibility that he doesn't quite hit those numbers which should still make us better than last year.

 

Fingers crossed we get good Bryce. Cuz that would obviously make this year much more interesting.

[Carl Spackler]

On 7/21/2023 at 11:12 PM, panthers55 said:

I know we both hope you are wrong.

For sure. But there’s no telling right now. 

[CRA]

On 7/21/2023 at 6:00 AM, csx said:

2008 Ravens won 2 playoff games with rookie Flacco and rookie coach Harbough.

2008 Falcons made playoffs with rookie Matt Ryan and rookie HC Mike Smith

2009 Jets win 2 playoff games with rookies Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan.

2012 Colts made playoffs with Rookies Luck and Pagano

 

 

 

 

 

 

Freak defenses or hall of fame skill position talent generally have been the markings of how teams made the playoffs with rookie QBs. 

[mc52beast]

I hate it when this team goes into a season with expectations… 

[BlackPanther22]

3 hours ago, mc52beast said:

I hate it when this team goes into a season with expectations… 

I feel you BUT, I hope we get to the point where we're good enough that expectations don't scare the fanbase. I'd love to go into to a season where people expect a lot out of us because we're just that good. 

[CRA]

On 7/21/2023 at 12:45 PM, rayzor said:

how the hell do we do worse than last year?

I mean in fairness, we won a game last year with 32 passing yards.  I think overall the division will be slightly better overall than last year.   So I think our schedule might be harder. 

plus, just the rookie QBs factor and winning games being hard in the NFL.   Learning how to win and all.   I suspect we could actually look like the better team sometimes and just struggle putting it all together at the end.   People seemed to have removed Bryce Young from going through rookie struggles and learning.

I think the 6 to 9 win range is probable.  Lot depends on just the randomness of NFL games and how the ball bounces.   Don’t think we will be good enough offensively to overcome things when they don’t go our way.  

[TLGPanthersFan]

59 minutes ago, CRA said:

I mean in fairness, we won a game last year with 32 passing yards.  I think overall the division will be slightly better overall than last year.   So I think our schedule might be harder. 

plus, just the rookie QBs factor and winning games being hard in the NFL.   Learning how to win and all.   I suspect we could actually look like the better team sometimes and just struggle putting it all together at the end.   People seemed to have removed Bryce Young from going through rookie struggles and learning.

I think the 6 to 9 win range is probable.  Lot depends on just the randomness of NFL games and how the ball bounces.   Don’t think we will be good enough offensively to overcome things when they don’t go our way.  

That is kinda what I have been to thinking. That our division being easy to win might be overblown. 
Falcons have a good coach and if everything comes together they could be a good team. 
Saints are a solid team. Good offense and defense. But can Carr lead the team to the playoffs and can the HC not suck. 
Tampa is really the only team I see where we might get 2 easy wins but they still have a solid core. But like the Saints will the QB play and HC bring them down. 

[Icege]

Summary

• NFC South didn't have the lowest "Power Score" in the league. That belonged to the NFC North.
• At the time of the recording, the Panthers had the #27 Power Score. The Rams, Cardinals, and Bears all ranked lower than the Panthers along with two teams yet to be reviewed (my money is on the Texans and the Colts).
• Most impactful free agents: Miles Sanders (Brett) & Derek Carr (EJ)
• Brett: Run-heavy division with expectations that the team will remain run-heavy under Reich that will run a lot of the concepts that Sanders exceled at in Philly (inside zone, power, and duo). Believes that Sanders has developed into a solid RB and is under an affordable deal. Would not be stunned if he has a 1300-1400 total yard season with double digit touchdowns.
• EJ: Miles has to be happy with the deal he got after watching how things fell apart for other RBs on the market. Coming from one of the best OLs in Philly limited his landing spots and he chose an ascending young OL to run behind.
• Brett had high praises for the OL, citing how they went from CMC to Foreman and didn't miss a beat.
• Dark Horse Candidate: DJ Chark (EJ). Both had Jessie Bates as their runner-up.
• Notable rookies for Carolina: Bryce Young, Jonathan Mingo, and Chandler Zavala
• Favourite Rookie Addition: Bryce Young (Brett) & Bijan Robinson (EJ)
• Brett is very high on Bryce Young. Said if he were a little better that folks would be talking him up like they did Joe Burrow. Great in big moments, eyes in the back of his head, elite pocket presence, touch, accuracy, more than enough arm strength. He's also a Mater Dei alum like Bryce is and says that he's one of the best QBs that he's ever seen play live with his own eyes. Was also very high on Chandler Zavala as was EJ.
• EJ feels good for the Carolina fans. No sure thing in the draft, but Bryce has a better combo of skills & attributes the matter for the QB position then those that have come before him. Can amplify the team and has shown that as far back as high school. Only complaint from other people is that he's not big and might get hurt, which EJ will agree on the size but not him being frail. Survived the SEC guys that got drafted and are going to be chasing him around at the next level and still played at a high level with things that can't be taught: anticipation, speed in pre-snap + post-snap reads, good enough mobility to stay out of the way and open up throwing lanes, wait until the last micro-second to get rid of the ball when a route opens up, etc. In terms of pure starting experience, more than most QBs in a more competitive conference at a higher level of execution. Really likes Young, but couldn't pick him because he joked that he's contractually obligated to defer all Mater Dei alum to Brett.
• Division MVP: Brian Burns (Brett) & Chris Olave (EJ)
• Brett thinks there are few divisions that a non-QB can be MVP but expects a master class season: possibility of 16+ sacks, bunch of forced fumbles, outrageous pressure numbers.
• EJ agrees that Burns is awesome and picked him as DPOTY last year, but says that Fangio's system that Evero runs does not like to give their four primary rushers help. They also like to use their primary rusher, in Carolina's case Brian Burns, to eat up double teams. He does not agree with using the best pass rusher on the team as a decoy 70% of the time. Believes that the scheme will suppress him.
• Offensive POTY: Chris Olave (Brett) & Derek Carr (EJ)
• Defensive POTY: Jaycee Horn (Brett) & Grady Jarrett (EJ)
• Brett says that when he's been healthy that Jaycee Horn has shown that he's a great corner. In terms of durability/consistency, Patrick Surtain has won the debate so far but believes that Horn is due for a ridiculous year even though he has Burns as the MVP. Believes that he's the perfect fit for the defense the same way that Surtain was for Evero in Denver and will be used in the same way.
• EJ says that the defense funnels opportunities to the primary CB. Believes that Horn will benefit from it the same way Burns' stats won't.
• Brett followed up with saying that the defensve leaves the #1 CB on an island often while playing three over two along with two on one on the backside. That leaves him 1v1, meaning there will be targets which is going to give chances to PBUs + INTs.
• Offensive ROTY: Bryce Young (both)
• Defensive ROTY: Calijah Kancey (both)
• Coach of the Year: Frank Reich (Brett) & Dennis Allen (EJ)
• Brett loved Steve Wilks and thought he did great last year and would've chosen him, but goes with Reich as he believes the Panthers are an ascending team.
• EJ agrees that they're ascending and can win double digit games even with a rookie QB. Not a typical team that takes a QB #1 overall. The Panthers have a deeper roster than that. Other side of the ball is not bereft of talent.
• Division Winner: Carolina Panthers (both)
• If both had to put money, they'd put it on Carolina. From overall roster quality + depth, coaching, a young QB that they believe in, a tough but not an insurmountable schedule. Best shot to win a playoff game in January. Bryce Young is a rare rookie QB that can overcome mistakes that he will make. The team around him is good enough with talent on defense and a DC that can put more talent in better positions to succeed. Questions of course about how long it takes for things to gel, but Evero has the pieces on defense. Are there any NFC East teams that the Panthers could beat in the postseason? Maybe the Giants if DJ has a bad-to-average day. Can this team take out a team from the toughest division last year? Of course... if the NFC East QB falters early. 

Edited July 25, 2023 by Icege