Offensive support cast ranked 31st in the league

[poundaway]

3 hours ago, Sgt Schultz said:

Eh, preseason rankings are all speculation.  They should all carry the following disclaimers:

• They are based on the limitations of what we know
• Past performance is not an indicator of future results
• All other things being equal

Some players that are expected to be in the top echelon of their positions will not.  Some that are not expected to be will.  Some teams will develop a chemistry and prove that the sum of the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.  Some talent-laden teams may implode due to no chemistry, refuting what the previous group proved.  Injuries will take out players or dash entire teams' hopes.  Some teams may magically avoid the injury bug.  It is possible some coach will implode.  Or one that is a "dead man walking" will suddenly spring to life. 

There are just too many variables to get hung up on preseason rankings.  They serve their purpose, and give us something to talk about when there is not much else to talk about.

Exactly. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-wide-receiver-rankings-and-tiers-2022

Thielen was ranked higher than Julio Jones, Beckham, Locket, Cooper and  DJ Moore in preseason last year, after a 700 yard season in 2021.

He had another 700 yard season last year so now he sucks I guess. 

 

[UnluckyforSome]

4 minutes ago, Gerry Green said:

 

So his stats don't matter? Just the number of teams he's been on? Weird way of gauging someone's talent. But hey, this is the interwebz.

Sure stats matter. 177 catches for 1,718 yards, a 9.7 ypc, over 5 seasons. 14 tds, nearly half (6) in 2020 with the Falcons, which was his best season with 56 catches for 571 yards. 

With those eye-popping numbers in mind, he is far more productive than Thomas or Tremble. Thomas is a waste of cap space, and Tremble is a maybe more of a H-back.

[Gerry Green]

24 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Sure they do. They're not good. 1718 yards and 14 TDs over 5 seasons. That's 344 yards and 2.8 TDs per season for reference. He's averaged 25 receiving yards per game played.

 

He catches nearly 75% of his targets. Averages a 1st down on 53% of those catches. Sounds to me like all he needs is more targets. 

 

His first year in Atl he had 88 targets, 56 catches, for 571 yards and 6 TDs. Yep, more targets equal better stats. Imagine that.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, Gerry Green said:

 

He catches nearly 75% of his targets. Averages a 1st down on 53% of those catches. Sounds to me like all he needs is more targets. 

 

His first year in Atl he had 88 targets, 56 catches, for 571 yards and 6 TDs. Yep, more targets equal better stats. Imagine that.

 

I honestly hope he's great for us. All I'm saying is he hasn't lived up to his 1st round draft status and he has bounced around the league and hasn't latched on anywhere long term. That is generally referred to as being a "bust".

Not sure why this reality is triggering you so hard.

 

[CRA]

1 hour ago, Smithers said:

Not to mention that Hurst has been buried behind Uzomah, Kyle Pitts, and Mark Andrews. Despite playing backup to those guys, he still managed 1700 yards and 14 touchdowns.  He’s done exactly what every team has asked him to do.  Side note - nearly half his catches have gone for 1st downs.  Not bad for a backup.

Not exactly fair to say he has been buried behind guys.  All 3 teams essentially signed him and gifted him the starting job.     Every player you listed was either drafted after Hurst (Andrew 4 rounds later, Pitts the following season) or wasn't there with him (Uzomah). 

He is a solid TE.  That's Hurst.  Most teams seem to be looking for a playmaker in this era.  We should be happy with a solid starting TE.  That's an upgrade.   That's what we should be trying to do each year.  But it means we will have to do what all his other teams did at some point too.  Find a stud TE.    

 

 

[Gerry Green]

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I honestly hope he's great for us. All I'm saying is he hasn't lived up to his 1st round draft status and he has bounced around the league and hasn't latched on anywhere long term. That is generally referred to as being a "bust".

Not sure why this reality is triggering you so hard.

 

 

 And LOL at triggered. Damm dude you really do use that A LOT.

 

So, if a player has a 10 year career, but never more than a few years with any one team. That's a "Bust"? Not sure how you arrived at that conclusion? Because that pretty much describes most of the NFL. Good players hit the FA market every year. According to your own definition, that makes all of them "Busts" as well,

 

You're entitled to your opinion. Just don't expect folks to automatically agree with it.

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, Gerry Green said:

 

 And LOL at triggered. Damm dude you really do use that A LOT.

 

So, if a player has a 10 year career, but never more than a few years with any one team. That's a "Bust"? Not sure how you arrived at that conclusion? Because that pretty much describes most of the NFL. Good players hit the FA market every year. According to your own definition, that makes all of them "Busts" as well,

 

You're entitled to your opinion. Just don't expect folks to automatically agree with it.

If he's a former 1st round pick and he's bounced around the league largely due to lack of production and his former teams seeking out better option, then yeah it would be fair and customary to consider that player a bust.

You sure are choosing a strange hill to die on.

[Gerry Green]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If he's a former 1st round pick and he's bounced around the league largely due to lack of production and his former teams seeking out better option, then yeah it would be fair and customary to consider that player a bust.

You sure are choosing a strange hill to die on.

 

He was traded for twice. So, he was in demand. 

 

LOL at you gaslighting me. I didn't die on this hill. I just didn't agree with you. Classic LG. 

 

Your one and only piece of evidence that Hurst is a "Bust" is the fact that he's been on whopping 3 teams in 5 years. 1 of those teams drafted him, the other two wanted him. Nothing "Bust" worthy in there.

 

A lot goes into a Players' stats. 

 

 

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, Gerry Green said:

 

He was traded for twice. So, he was in demand. 

 

LOL at you gaslighting me. I didn't die on this hill. I just didn't agree with you. Classic LG. 

 

Your one and only piece of evidence that Hurst is a "Bust" is the fact that he's been on whopping 3 teams in 5 years. 1 of those teams drafted him, the other two wanted him. Nothing "Bust" worthy in there.

 

A lot goes into a Players' stats. 

 

 

I've cited both his bouncing around the league and his stats. You just bounce back and forth based on whichever is convenient for you at the time. You seem to just be arguing for the sake of argument. 

Name me another player that has bounced around four different teams over six years while posting subpar stats who isn't widely considered a bust.

[UnluckyforSome]

None of this matters though, but it is talk. Fans of every team are running with hope this time of year. There are folks over on the Falcons board that are arguing how they will have the top seed in the NFC.

I'm not buying into us winning the South. We are not good enough, and while 31st is low, it's not much lower than I would rank us right now.

[Ricky Spanish]

Hurst was a 25 YO rookie TE when he was drafted. He has done about as well as I expected him to do since he has been drafted. 

We haven't been able to do much at the position ever since Greg started getting injured and Cam couldn't throw the ball any more. 

He's a very fluid athlete with great hands. Looking at his previous stops he didn't explode for various reasons:

BAL- they happened to draft a Mark Andrews so they didn't use Hurst as much. Hurst is an Average TE, Andrews is a top 3. Simple as that.

ATL - 4th option behind Julio, Gage, and Ridley but Still had a good year in 2020. Then fell off with the new Staff in 2021 after drafting a generational talent at the position in Pitts that year. New scheme wasn't great for the team all around and the entire passing offense struggled since Arthur Smith loves to run the ball.  

CIN - Afterthought in a loaded offense, 5th in terms of targets but still caught damn near everything thrown his way (76% Catch rate).

Dude's career Catch rate is really good (71%) and TEs tend to have the best years of their careers from their late 20's into their early 30s. I would not be surprised to see Hurst put up similar respectable numbers to what he did in ATL in 2020 - 500 yards, 6TDs. 

Dude wasn't worth a first rounder, but to me that was more because of his age than anything. He is an AVG TE where we had a bottom 3 TE Room under Rhule, and we aren't breaking the bank to pay him. 

I don't anticipate we have a certified #1 receiver this year. I expect our top 3 to hover around similar stats. So if Chark, TMJ, and Thielen each get an average of 700 yards, Hurst gets 500, Sanders gets 400, Mingo gets another 400, and Shenault/Byrd/everyone else add another 200 Total - That gives Bryce 3,600 yards passing, which is pretty damn good for a rookie and puts him at #12 in passing yards last season behind Aaron Rodgers.

I trust this staff to scheme these guys open, and I trust Bryce, hell even Andy Dalton, to throw to any of these dudes that are open. 

[Gerry Green]

13 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I've cited both his bouncing around the league and his stats. You just bounce back and forth based on whichever is convenient for you at the time. You seem to just be arguing for the sake of argument. 

Name me another player that has bounced around four different teams over six years while posting subpar stats who isn't widely considered a bust.

 

Sure you cited his bouncing around the league. That's how you define a ''Bust''. And the only stats you provided were his career stats. No context there. I gave you Catch%, 1st down%, his best years stats for comparison of when he actually gets targets. But hey, I guess that's nothing in your eyes eh?

 

I answer your posts. If they are inconvenient to you, maybe look at who is writing them.

 

I am not doing any searches. I don't care about other players. We're talking Hurst here.

 

Ack, I'm dead. Damm hill.  People who make definitive statements scare me anyway.

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, Gerry Green said:

 

Sure you cited his bouncing around the league. That's how you define a ''Bust''. And the only stats you provided were his career stats. No context there. I gave you Catch%, 1st down%, his best years stats for comparison of when he actually gets targets. But hey, I guess that's nothing in your eyes eh?

 

I answer your posts. If they are inconvenient to you, maybe look at who is writing them.

 

I am not doing any searches. I don't care about other players. We're talking Hurst here.

 

Ack, I'm dead. Damm hill.  People who make definitive statements scare me anyway.

The only definitive statement I've made is that to this point in his career he's a bust. Because he is. I hope he turns that around here.

It's okay to be honest and objective about our own players. The reality is that we'd all be pointing and laughing at a division rival if they gave Hayden Hurst $21M over 3 years.

[Gerry Green]

12 minutes ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Hurst was a 25 YO rookie TE when he was drafted. He has done about as well as I expected him to do since he has been drafted. 

We haven't been able to do much at the position ever since Greg started getting injured and Cam couldn't throw the ball any more. 

He's a very fluid athlete with great hands. Looking at his previous stops he didn't explode for various reasons:

BAL- they happened to draft a Mark Andrews so they didn't use Hurst as much. Hurst is an Average TE, Andrews is a top 3. Simple as that.

ATL - 4th option behind Julio, Gage, and Ridley but Still had a good year in 2020. Then fell off with the new Staff in 2021 after drafting a generational talent at the position in Pitts that year. New scheme wasn't great for the team all around and the entire passing offense struggled since Arthur Smith loves to run the ball.  

CIN - Afterthought in a loaded offense, 5th in terms of targets but still caught damn near everything thrown his way (76% Catch rate).

Dude's career Catch rate is really good (71%) and TEs tend to have the best years of their careers from their late 20's into their early 30s. I would not be surprised to see Hurst put up similar respectable numbers to what he did in ATL in 2020 - 500 yards, 6TDs. 

Dude wasn't worth a first rounder, but to me that was more because of his age than anything. He is an AVG TE where we had a bottom 3 TE Room under Rhule, and we aren't breaking the bank to pay him. 

I don't anticipate we have a certified #1 receiver this year. I expect our top 3 to hover around similar stats. So if Chark, TMJ, and Thielen each get an average of 700 yards, Hurst gets 500, Sanders gets 400, Mingo gets another 400, and Shenault/Byrd/everyone else add another 200 Total - That gives Bryce 3,600 yards passing, which is pretty damn good for a rookie and puts him at #12 in passing yards last season behind Aaron Rodgers.

I trust this staff to scheme these guys open, and I trust Bryce, hell even Andy Dalton, to throw to any of these dudes that are open. 

 

It's nice when someone takes the time to do a deeper dive on these things. Helps one to make a better-informed decision.

 

Hurst may not be top 10. But the guy will defiantly help our Offense. The best TE we've had since Olsen fell off. 

 

I will add that if Bryce even sniffs the ROY. We are going to be in good shape come the end of the year.