On My Radar: TMJ & Tommy Tremble

[Bear Hands]

As we start to get excited about this rookie class and recent acquisitions, I wanted to shed a light on these two.  

Why? Well it's because they've essentially been redshirting (for lack of better term) as early-entry juniors & in a position where they needed time to ease in.  Not to mention, the coaching & QBs sucked. 

And what is wild: Being early-entries (that are already young for their class) they are both only 22 years old; younger than the average draft age in both 2022 (24.11) and 2023.  

I'll get to TMJ, who has had some healthy discussion already this offseason.  

But First off let's talk Tommy Tremble

(3rd Rounder) #83 Overall 2021

If he came out this year, he would've been:

6th fastest, 3rd best vert, 6th best broad, 2nd best 10 yard split (crazy burst for a "blocking" TE).  Tests VERY similarly to Brenton Strange who was just drafted Round 2, 61 overall.

Now, our "awful" TE group the last few years has made people either dismiss or just kind of push aside Tremble.  When in reality, he's honestly done rather well when thrown the ball & brought in to block.  Being so young, his grades as a TE won't be perfect, but they are on the plus side, he's proving to be a willing and tough blocker, athletic and has got great quickness to get open early for a TE.     

A little history to not forget: Tremble played alongside both Michael Mayer & Cole Kmet for ND at different parts of his career.  That program knows TEs and he never had the chance to really be a major target.  At 22, he's 2 years younger than Kmet and only 11 months older than Michael Mayer.  

The dude is 6'4 250, the Kittle H-Back mold (they're similarly sized/framed, with Tremble a tad more athletic-type), has consistently graded favorably in pass protection when called upon.  Not to mention, has managed to make plays in a TE2 role with 3 TDs & 5+ 20 yard receptions on 31 targets last season. 

So, athletic, a gritty/willing blocker, has proven solid receiving skills and capable of making splash plays.  And is going into his 3rd year--which is really the big one for TEs.  They are notorious for not coming out of the gates swinging.  They take time. 

Now, I'm not expecting some monster year, Hurst is our starter, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't still excited about Tremble.  Not looking for some superstar, but I think what he's capable of really making strides this year and is being far overlooked.

For context: A single season snaps average for a starting TE is around 950-1,000 snaps.  Tremble has just over 1,000 in his career, only 550 non-blocking. His majority snaps have come in 2 TE sets as an extra run blocker.

So! in that roughly half-season's worth of snaps, he has 39 rec, 354 yards and 5 total TDs.  And that was from 60 overall targets (from our awful QB room), & 19 of those receptions were 1st downs.  

I know Ian Thomas is this sore, and we've had guys like Manhertz hogging snaps that we can't look past, but I'd caution in lumping Tremble into this perceived awful TE room we've had.  He's had time to adjust to the NFL in one of the positions that's known to have the toughest adjustment curves. 

I'm still very optimistic about him and honestly, I think he'd have gone between Strange and Kraft in this draft.    

 

Terrace Marshall Jr

Our QB play, coaching and offensive schemes did him no help.    

6'3 200, Averaged 104 ypg for LSU in 2020, with Burrow, JJ, or Chase no longer in house.  And with them, was able to take in 13 TDs in the most decorated offense in NCAA history.    

In comp to this years draft: 4.38 40 (t-4th fastest), 39.5 vert (T-5th), 19 bench (5th)

This past year, the QB rating when targeting TMJ?: 102.3

In 1,069 career snaps, has only had 635 on passing downs, at best as a WR2 (mainly WR3 behind Robbie in 21'), in 3+ WR sets.   He's managed 45 rec, 628 yards, 1 TD coming from PJ Walker, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Jacob Eason, & Cam Newton's corpse. 

Honestly, he just hasn't been given the environment to prove the type of player he can be.  He was ranked a fringe 1st/high 2nd by many for a reason, and just like Tremble, I'm staying optimistic. 

Don't look past these two.  

2023 could prove to be big for them. We're getting all hopeful about other young guys, who will have a curve to adjust to.  These 2 are now caught up to the speed of the NFL, with little tread, and the same age as Mingo.  

Let's go

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Bear Hands

[SCO96]

It's fair to say that no player on our roster played up to their potential under Matt Rhule. I wouldnt be surprised to all of the roster players he drafted improve by leaps and bound in 2023. Good post. I hope your optimism for these two pays off this season...and beyond.

[Bear Hands]

Just now, SCO96 said:

It's fair to say that no player on our roster played up to their potential under Matt Rhule. I wouldnt be surprised to all of the roster players he drafted improve by leaps and bound in 2023. Good post. I hope your optimism for these two pays off this season...and beyond.

Thanks.  I just think these are two Rhule-era picks in particular that cannot be written off.  Others can, see: Yetur.  

Tremble was a high selection for a TE and they take time unless they're an aberration.  Add in that he can block & catch just fine, and is now seasoned, I think he has a HUGE opportunity with us not drafting one from this class. 

Fitterer even called him out specifically in a post-draft presser that they were fine not drafting a TE due to the confidence they have in Tremble.  I like to hear that, especially considering we have a new coaching staff in house and that determination no doubt came through their assessment as well as Scott's.  

 

[Bear Hands]

Let's also not forget Tremble's first 3 touches as a Panther:

-30 yard reception to set up a TD

-A Goal Line Trickery Rushing TD

-A Receiving TD

He makes plus+ plays when he's given the ball.  

[chbright]

I'm still on the TMJ bandwagon. He has had absolute poo for OC, HC and rotation of QBs to deal with. None of the WRS looked all that great last 2 years and I would not be shocked to see him breakout this year. 

[CamWhoaaCam]

It very well could be we had some hidden gems on the roster that were being held back because of Rhule.

 

If they break out that's great for us.

[Captain Morgan]

thanks for making me feel better about Tremble.

[WhoKnows]

1 hour ago, Captain Morgan said:

thanks for making me feel better about Tremble.

He’s not making me feel better. Acting like TEs spend 100% of the time catching and no time blocking is how Tremble’s numbers were prorated higher.

Travis Kelce has averaged just above 900 snaps the last three years. Tremble has had over 1000 snaps the past two years. You can’t then say oh, if he was Kelce I can take those 1000 snaps and double the result because Kelce never blocks. I mean, Thomas has over 1100 snaps the past two years and has 39 receptions, the same as Tremble.

In two years and 2100+ snaps Thomas and Tremble have 78-739. In the last two years on only 1800+ snaps, Kelce has 202-2463 and Kelce. Note that KC’s TE2 had more receptions than Tremble or Thomas last year.

I know Kelce is a stud, but it’s very misleading to insinuate that Tremble would have 80-700 and 10 TDs if he was the guy. That’s quadrupling his stats when he’s already playing 50% of all snaps.

[BlackPanther22]

I’m very optimistic about both of these guys tbh. I feel like TMJ is primed for a breakout but idk what it is but I’ve always had a decent feeling that Tommy would end up surprising people one of these years. My thing with him is just his hands being more consistent which I think they’ve gotten better, and with Hurst around as a true #1 options at TE, maybe it’ll take some pressure off Tommy and he can rack up some sneaky good production in two TE sets. 
 

We’ll see what happens though. The key to our success this season imo will be the development of some of these guys like TMJ and Tremble on the offensive side of the ball to help make Bryce’s transition easier. 

[WhoKnows]

I know I’ve posted it before but I don’t think TMJ breaks out unless we have a rash of injuries. We lost DJ, but added a lot of targets in Sanders, Hurst, Thielen, Chark and Mingo. Something has to give for Marshall to break out.

Same analysis trying to act like TMJ hasn’t been playing enough receiving snaps. DJ Moore averaged 900 snaps a years and guess what, we ran a bunch when he was out there too.

The QB rating while targeting TMJ is also a bit misleading. His biggest issue is getting separation. Does anyone remember preseason when Shi smith scored a TD and Sam was laser focused on TMJ who didn’t separate and actually fell down on the route? Sam switched reads and found Smith. That was one of the reasons Smith started as WR3 before sucking and losing the job back to TMJ. Last year, TMJ got the ball for a nice gain each week while wide open and had his TD and nice gains in garbage time against Cincy (they pulled starters up 35) and the TD was after.

I’d be ecstatic if somehow TMJ became a stud LSU WR for Young but the whole prorating stuff as if his 1069 snaps weren’t almost 20% more than DJ got every year, producing way more, doesn’t sway me. Unless you think he’s leapfrogging everyone else to be WR1, not sure how to predict a breakout when we have better targets overall compared with last year.

[SurvivalSloth]

Great write up, OP!

[LinvilleGorge]

TMJ has shown some decent promise. I hope he can blossom under a better staff with better QB play. I hope I'm wrong but Tremble just seems like a bust IMO. Haven't seen much there to hang my hat on.

[Mage]

I have no expectations for Tremble, but I think Marshall is going to have a really good year.  I'm thinking 800+ yards and 5+ TDs.  

[Bear Hands]

1 hour ago, WhoKnows said:

He’s not making me feel better. Acting like TEs spend 100% of the time catching and no time blocking is how Tremble’s numbers were prorated higher.

I'm really not.  I'm also not saying he's going to have some superstar year either.  There's simply some nice reasons to be optimistic about him.  He's still going to have a high percentage plays with blocking assignments.  I'm also specifically explaining how he's more of a blocking TE role that has the capacity to become a strong receiving threat.  Never once extrapolated for a full season or said TE1s don't block. 

I'm simply stretching out his two seasons in context for modest hype, not saying he's coming up on some 800/7TD year.