2023 Quantifying Quarterbacks

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, WUnderhill said:

Great information, thanks op. I don’t see anything that should change opinions. AR has accuracy issues, Bryce Young pretty good at just about everything but lacked explosive plays, Stroud very accurate and his receivers and line were great (holy crap 0.89% drop rate). I think it’s clear you can design an offense for Stroud and tell him where to go with the ball and he can get it there. But that’s always been clear. If I had to guess, I think he will probably look like a really good regular season QB who struggles in the playoffs.

LOL he literally just had his best game of his career in the playoffs

[WUnderhill]

2 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

LOL he literally just had his best game of his career in the playoffs

Wow did I offend you? Imagine me suggesting that the talent gap between his WRs and the opposing secondary may be less in the NFL, or that there are smarter coaches and players in the NFL. This may come as a shock, but the NFL playoffs are different than college.

[panther4life]

37 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

 

on a related topic, I really miss that website that existed years ago that would chop up games of prospects into every play they were involved in, for QBs it was entire games with every single throw and passing play. I forget the name of it, I remember it had a red theme. That site was great and really helpful for armchair GMing. 

nfldraftbreakdown was the site and it was amazing. Now its still something draft related but not worth anyones time.  Had more than just QB't too, some maniacs took the time to cut up the games to just snaps WR's just blocked in or were targeted.  Same for other positions too. 

Luckily, as I am sure you know(but sharing for those that don't ) now days you can still find most of the same stuff on YouTube by typing a players name vs opponent. For example "Bryce Young Vs Tennessee"

I also agree with you that the best way to get an idea of a prospect is to actually watch whatever game footage you can find online that showcases how they do throughout entire games vs just highlights. Takes only a few more minutes to watch 4-5 entire games than you just watching 1-2 highlight videos so well worth the investment. I also appreciate the advanced stats too, because it forces me to go back and watch if it doesn't align with my original thoughts.

 

[WUnderhill]

24 minutes ago, BrianS said:

I know there has been a lot of negative press around Stroud, but man.

Knock:  His receivers are running wide open.  Fact:  Stroud threw just as many tight window passes as Young, and was the most accurate QB in the class when doing so.

Knock:  Stroud can't play under pressure or outside the pocket.  Fact:  Stroud has the highest accuracy in the class under pressure and outside the pocket and is pressured at just slightly below the average for the class this year.

If a Huddler (good job OP) can dig these numbers out, you have to believe that teams have done the same.  Looking at those numbers, I'd have a very hard time not taking the guy (Stroud).  I wonder if all the hysteria around Young is a product of the highlights instead of the body of work.  Does Stroud just make it look so easy that we gravitate toward Young who makes it look like a million bucks?

It's an interesting discussion.

Both QB's seem to have said all the right things and shown all the right personality traits.  The mystery stops soon.

 

Maybe I’m not understanding the numbers exactly correctly so somebody can correct me if I’m wrong.

It appears to me that players may get higher “True Accuracy” scores just by attempting deeper throws. If true, it’s just a hard number for me to put a lot of weight in. That’s not to say it means nothing.

It also appears that one of the most important numbers would be the DIFFERENCE between raw or true accuracy and adjusted accuracy, but we don’t get a total adjusted accuracy number because it is broken down into 3 categories, so I would be interested in knowing if there is a total adjusted accuracy number.

I find it interesting that Stroud has such great accuracy numbers, yet slightly higher than average catches requiring adjustment. Does that mean his ball placement is not quite as elite as advertised? I don’t know. His contested catch % is slightly higher than average, and pass defended percentage is lower than average, which could again be an indicator of him throwing to his first read regardless of coverage and his receivers playing the ball better than their coverage.

These are cool stats to look at and they could be interpreted several different ways. I trust the staff we’ve assembled to properly interpret this kind of stuff within the context of the film.

[BrianS]

6 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

Maybe I’m not understanding the numbers exactly correctly so somebody can correct me if I’m wrong.

It appears to me that players may get higher “True Accuracy” scores just by attempting deeper throws. If true, it’s just a hard number for me to put a lot of weight in. That’s not to say it means nothing.

It also appears that one of the most important numbers would be the DIFFERENCE between raw or true accuracy and adjusted accuracy, but we don’t get a total adjusted accuracy number because it is broken down into 3 categories, so I would be interested in knowing if there is a total adjusted accuracy number.

I find it interesting that Stroud has such great accuracy numbers, yet slightly higher than average catches requiring adjustment. Does that mean his ball placement is not quite as elite as advertised? I don’t know. His contested catch % is slightly higher than average, and pass defended percentage is lower than average, which could again be an indicator of him throwing to his first read regardless of coverage and his receivers playing the ball better than their coverage.

These are cool stats to look at and they could be interpreted several different ways. I trust the staff we’ve assembled to properly interpret this kind of stuff within the context of the film.

That's flawed logic.  You cannot inflate true accuracy by attempting more deep throws.  First off, these QB's didn't know these stats would even be measured.  They couldn't manipulate them.  Second, what it's actually doing there is weighting passes that are more difficult to throw accurately higher. 

Think of it as a measure of how honest a QB can keep a defense.  If a QB can complete downfield throws with a high degree of accuracy, it stress a defense vertically.  NFL teams value that highly.  TB5 would be the poster child for why this measure matters.

[WUnderhill]

4 minutes ago, BrianS said:

That's flawed logic.  You cannot inflate true accuracy by attempting more deep throws.  First off, these QB's didn't know these stats would even be measured.  They couldn't manipulate them.  Second, what it's actually doing there is weighting passes that are more difficult to throw accurately higher. 

Think of it as a measure of how honest a QB can keep a defense.  If a QB can complete downfield throws with a high degree of accuracy, it stress a defense vertically.  NFL teams value that highly.  TB5 would be the poster child for why this measure matters.

So, they get a higher score for “completing” more deep throws. I used the word “attempting” but it’s not what I meant, so poor word choice on my part.

I wasn’t suggesting that the QBs intentionally inflated their scores.

[Icege]

49 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

Great information, thanks op. I don’t see anything that should change opinions. AR has accuracy issues, Bryce Young pretty good at just about everything but lacked explosive plays, Stroud very accurate and his receivers and line were great (holy crap 0.89% drop rate). I think it’s clear you can design an offense for Stroud and tell him where to go with the ball and he can get it there. But that’s always been clear. If I had to guess, I think he will probably look like a really good regular season QB who struggles in the playoffs.

It's worth noting that the lack of explosive plays for Bama this past season was likely due to them not having a speedster at WR to act as their deep threat. Tyler Harrell transferred in from Louisville and was supposed to be that player for them but he didn't see the field until late October against Mississippi State due to a foot injury that plagued him all season.

That left Jermaine Burton (who played the role of their X after transferring in from Arkansas), Ja'Corey Brooks, Traeshon Holden, and Kobe Prentice to be the main four WRs. Prentice has speed, but he was also a freshman learning the offense.

Couple that with how poorly the Alabama OL played and I can understand the lower explosive play percentage.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Icege

[KatsAzz]

1 hour ago, ncsdawg said:

Interesting stats, hard to come to a conclusion on any QB when everything is factored in.  Richardson is the most intriguing QB in the draft to me, there are glimpses of what he could be capable of.  But it could be 3 years before anyone knows how good he could be.  Which is challenging when you only get 4 + 1 years on the rookie contract.

 Drafting a QB that needs to develop with a high #1 draft selection not only could take time for that to happen but could set a team back if they never develop like you hope they will. 

I would always go with the safe and proven selection, instead of trying to find lighting in a bottle.

[WUnderhill]

1 minute ago, Icege said:

It's worth noting that the lack of explosive plays for Bama this past season was likely due to them not having a speedster at WR to act as their deep threat. Tyler Harrell transferred in from Louisville and was supposed to be that player for them but he didn't see the field until late October against Mississippi State due to a foot injury that plagued him all season.

That left Jermaine Burton (who played the role of their X after transferring in from Arkansas), Ja'Corey Brooks, Traeshon Holden, and Kobe Prentice to be the main four WRs. Prentice has speed, but he was also a freshman learning the offense.

Couple that with how poorly the Alabama OL played and I can understand the lower explosive play percentage.

Definitely, it’s important to interpret all of these numbers within the context of the film and all the other data. That’s why we just gotta trust our staff. It’s not like we have Matt Rhule making decisions so I’m good with whoever they think is best.

[KatsAzz]

5 minutes ago, Icege said:

It's worth noting that the lack of explosive plays for Bama this past season was likely due to them not having a speedster at WR to act as their deep threat. Tyler Harrell transferred in from Louisville and was supposed to be that player for them but he didn't see the field until late October against Mississippi State due to a foot injury that plagued him all season.

That left Jermaine Burton (who played the role of their X after transferring in from Arkansas), Ja'Corey Brooks, Traeshon Holden, and Kobe Prentice to be the main four WRs. Prentice has speed, but he was also a freshman learning the offense.

Couple that with how poorly the Alabama OL played and I can understand the lower explosive play percentage.

This > ("Couple that with how poorly the Alabama OL played and I can understand the lower explosive play percentage.")

[JawnyBlaze]

36 minutes ago, panther4life said:

nfldraftbreakdown was the site and it was amazing. Now its still something draft related but not worth anyones time.  Had more than just QB't too, some maniacs took the time to cut up the games to just snaps WR's just blocked in or were targeted.  Same for other positions too. 

Luckily, as I am sure you know(but sharing for those that don't ) now days you can still find most of the same stuff on YouTube by typing a players name vs opponent. For example "Bryce Young Vs Tennessee"

I also agree with you that the best way to get an idea of a prospect is to actually watch whatever game footage you can find online that showcases how they do throughout entire games vs just highlights. Takes only a few more minutes to watch 4-5 entire games than you just watching 1-2 highlight videos so well worth the investment. I also appreciate the advanced stats too, because it forces me to go back and watch if it doesn't align with my original thoughts.

 

Yep that was it. Best draft site I’ve ever seen

[WUnderhill]

Just enough time to switch profiles. Alt confirmed? Honestly, if we’re going to make rep a thing here, some people should have their privileges removed. These 2 losers just follow me around and poo for no reason. 

[PanthersGOATFan336]

1 hour ago, WUnderhill said:

Wow did I offend you? Imagine me suggesting that the talent gap between his WRs and the opposing secondary may be less in the NFL, or that there are smarter coaches and players in the NFL. This may come as a shock, but the NFL playoffs are different than college.

Wow did I offend you?

[PanthersGOATFan336]