If we trade down......

[MasterAwesome]

I understand entertaining this hypothetical as a fan, but I think it'd be incredibly irresponsible for an actual NFL FO to forego their top choice at QB this year and trade down because "hey that Houston pick is probably going to be top 2 next year".  The NFL is too much of a crapshoot.  Going into the 2022 season, I think most people considered teams like the Lions, Seahawks, Jets, Giants, Commanders, and Jaguars to be bottom-feeders...but they all were either playoff teams or in the playoff run late in the season.  On the other hand, teams like the Bucs, Rams, Packers, and Broncos were considered potential powerhouses going into the season and they all struggled significantly.

[LinvilleGorge]

19 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

What are your opinions about Maye?  I'm guessing you have watched him a little.

The points of my post was hypothetical at best, do people really feel like QB 1 this year has that much better of a chance of being good than some combination of two QBS over the next two years?

Would you take Young or AR and Maye? or even Levis and Maye? or Stroud and Williams?  Is Young really that much better of a prospect?

As fans and front offices tend to think in very binary terms about these QB prospects, we convince ourselves that whatever QB we like has a 100% chance of making it and whatever one we don't has a 0% chance of making it but history tells us we are usually wrong.

 

Maye is talented as hell. I want to see how he operates next year. When the staff asked him to dial back the aggressiveness with his running I thought it clipped his wings a little bit and messed with his mojo. Yeah, he's gotta cut out the highlight reel helicoptering dives but you also have to trust the kid to pick his moments. He has to show growth in his game and decision making in that regard and the staff has to trust him a bit more. One of the reasons why I was so high on Howell and still am is that he was always able to adapt and just roll with whatever the coaches wanted him to do. Nothing seemed to effect his game and headspace. Receivers dropping balls, OL can't lay a hand on a pass rusher, coaches calling idiotic plays, coaches not wanting him to run at all early in his career then basically treating him like The Golden Calf of Bristol in his final year because him running was the only way they could move the ball... it just didn't matter. He just kept his head down and focused on the things he could control. Maye seemed rattled at times late in the season last year. I want to see growth out of him there. I think part of it was the expectations of the fast start, part of it was the coaches trying to reel him in and make him play the way they wanted him to play, and part of it was a lot of tension on the coaching staff. The relationship between Mack Brown and the OC was kinda falling apart.

So, basically we'll see. Honestly though, if he was available in this draft I'd take him #1 overall.

[Pup McBarky]

4 hours ago, AU-panther said:

Williams is looking like a Lawrence or Luck type of prospect.

Maye will be better in the NFL.

[MHS831]

There might be 2 or 3 QBs in next year's draft who will become starting material.   Two or so will bust.  There will be 8-12 teams who will be looking for a QB.   So you waste a year waiting for a 25% chance of drafting a QB that has a 50% chance of being successful?

The guys seem better now because they have not been scrutinized like this group has been--yet.  S2 scores, measurables, tape, combine, interviews, etc. 

To the main point:

the NFC South is ripe for the picking NOW.  THIS year.  Anyone in the NFC South planning for next year when they have the pick of the litter NOW should be tried and convicted of committing a felony and fraudulently misrepresenting the fan base if they make moves to have a chance to draft the 2024 QBs

[Wundrbread33]

I know some people will say “but preseason”, but we already have two shots to fix QB between our #1 on Thursday, and Corral from last draft. 
 

Corral isn’t lacking in arm and athletic traits, so he effectively becomes a literal backup, and the backup option if our rookie is mediocre at best. 
 

We have a dream staff of teachers on paper, so chances are decent enough to me that one of Young/Corral will figure this NFL QB thing out. 
 

 

 

If not then we deal with it in 2-4 years. 

[Pejorative Miscreant]

7 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

We didn't ship DJ to Chicago to trade down. We're making pick #1. 

The question for us is who we are taking at #39. 

 

Yeah. I think the only real drama is at 39. The likelihood of us taking AR at #1 (which is incredibly low IMO) is a much higher probability than trading out.

I saw draft day too but it was a movie. 

[SOJA]

7 hours ago, therealmjl said:

#1 is a lock

#39 Fitt will be trying his hardest to trade down into the late 40s.

this is what I believe. We could use the extra draft capital and the talent difference between 39-47 is likely negligible 

[KatsAzz]

8 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I honestly think the only drama for Panther fans is "what are they going to do at pick #39?"  I appreciate the post and the thoughts.  It is an interesting take.

Exactly. It looks like Alabama QB Bryce Young is a lock for the Panthers at # 1. Who do think they will select in the 2nd Rd. ?

[bythenbrs]

25 minutes ago, Pejorative Miscreant said:

I saw draft day too but it was a movie. 

Who didn't cry when they buried the ashes on the practice field?  [sigh]

"Come on, Tom.  Say it with me, you pancake eating... "

[Loyalty4Life]

If we trade down...

 

 

we riot.

[AU-panther]

2 hours ago, MHS831 said:

There might be 2 or 3 QBs in next year's draft who will become starting material.   Two or so will bust.  There will be 8-12 teams who will be looking for a QB.   So you waste a year waiting for a 25% chance of drafting a QB that has a 50% chance of being successful?

The guys seem better now because they have not been scrutinized like this group has been--yet.  S2 scores, measurables, tape, combine, interviews, etc. 

To the main point:

the NFC South is ripe for the picking NOW.  THIS year.  Anyone in the NFC South planning for next year when they have the pick of the litter NOW should be tried and convicted of committing a felony and fraudulently misrepresenting the fan base if they make moves to have a chance to draft the 2024 QBs

that's my point exactly, if they only have a 50% chance of being successful wouldn't your chances be better by having 2 of them.

 

[Shocker]

Jim Irsay calls in one of this frequent drunken stupors and offers 3 first rounders and any 2 players we want.  
 

[Actionman0z]

I think when the guy we draft number 1 can’t play QB in the NFL we get to see how good this “guru” staff is at QB development because the guy that’s gonna be there long term is Matt Corral. 

[CPantherKing]

The winning play is to trade down and not draft a QB in the 1st round. Teams should commit to any QB with college success to avoid the issue of not being able to settle on a franchise QB. Surprisingly, only 27 QBs who entered the NFL since 2010 have won a playoff game. Of those, 15 are 1st round QBs, with only 1 out of every 3 winning a playoff game. In contrast, 1 out of every 2 non-1st round QBs that teams commit to will win in the playoffs as their leader. Since 2010, 28% of non-1st round QBs have been successful when committed to by a team, compared to 19% of 1st round QBs on a championship level.

The top 2 playoff-winning QBs are not 1st round picks, with 9 of the 23 active QBs with playoff wins not being 1st round picks. While all 32 teams will have a 1st round QB available to them, players like Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Jimmy G, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Tom Brady will continue to win and be at the top of the NFL. The last time all 4 championship spots were held by 1st round QBs was in 2010, and it is unlikely to happen again even with the influx of 1st round QBs.

When a team commits to any QB, 85% go on to the playoffs with 8 of 10 1st round QBs and 9 of 10 6th round to undrafted QBs being able to achieve the playoffs. Teams should focus on committing to QBs with college success and avoid being overly reliant on 1st round picks.

Edited April 24, 2023 by CPantherKing