The Whole "SEC" Argument is So Badly Flawed

[run-run-pass-punt]

I know endless analysis and speculation are a part of things, but the bottom line is that we never know who a player will be in the NFL *until* he steps onto an NFL field. No amount of digging into a players surrounding circumstances, test scores, attributes, statistics, etc will grant clarity.

Edited April 21, 2023 by run-run-pass-punt

[jayboogieman]

42 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

guy who would be LITERALLY the smallest QB in NFL history

 

31 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

He'd be literally the smallest (lightest) QB in NFL history

You could at least do a google search before repeating this lie. Eddie Lebaron and Davey O'Brien were the smallest and lightest NFL QBs ever. Both were 5'7" and didn't weigh over 170lbs.

[jayboogieman]

28 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Call me crazy, but trying to predict Young's durability by comparing him to guys who are 20+ lbs heavier than him is rather flawed and not very relevant.

Trying to predict any player's durability regardless of his size is dumb. All it takes is the wrong injury to end their careers and that injury doesn't have to come from contact.

[electro's horse]

1 hour ago, Ocpanthertew714 said:

Well you know what they say about Tennessee,

Population 15 million, 15 different last names.

True story: y-12 is in East Tennessee just north of Knoxville. They did atomic bomb research there in the thirties and forties. 
 

They chose that site in case something went wrong and a nuke went off. The thought was if they ended up nuking East Tennessee, no one would notice and nothing of value would be lost. 
 

that’s still true. 

[tukafan21]

It's quite interesting that everyone here who wants Young just disregards his size as an issue and points to weird random data points as to why "smaller QB's aren't more likely to get injured"

Despite every NFL expert and analyst openly talking about how his size and possible durability issues are 100% factors in the decision, but in their minds, his football skillset makes it worth that risk.  And that's just those that still say Young should be the #1 pick, there are plenty out there that think it should be Stroud.

That's NOT the argument most Young supporters here make, they say the size factor is irrelevant based on any number of factors, whether it be NFL rules, past data about smaller QB's (even though they're all still bigger than Young), or whatever they want to point to.

That to me is very telling in how most Young supporters here talk about him, I'd have less of an issue if they'd say it concerned them but they think he's good enough that it's worth the risk.  Yes, some argue that, but not most, most just dismiss his size as a non-factor.

I'm gonna side with the "experts" on that one, very few, if any, have said that his size are a completely non-factor in the way so many on here talk about him. 

[stan786]

20 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

It's quite interesting that everyone here who wants Young just disregards his size as an issue and points to weird random data points as to why "smaller QB's aren't more likely to get injured"

Despite every NFL expert and analyst openly talking about how his size and possible durability issues are 100% factors in the decision, but in their minds, his football skillset makes it worth that risk.  And that's just those that still say Young should be the #1 pick, there are plenty out there that think it should be Stroud.

That's NOT the argument most Young supporters here make, they say the size factor is irrelevant based on any number of factors, whether it be NFL rules, past data about smaller QB's (even though they're all still bigger than Young), or whatever they want to point to.

That to me is very telling in how most Young supporters here talk about him, I'd have less of an issue if they'd say it concerned them but they think he's good enough that it's worth the risk.  Yes, some argue that, but not most, most just dismiss his size as a non-factor.

I'm gonna side with the "experts" on that one, very few, if any, have said that his size are a completely non-factor in the way so many on here talk about him. 

Injury risk is a concern, the argument is more there is no way to know either way for certain if he's going to get hurt more or not because of his size. There is limited data out there than generally trends toward lighter players get hurt less but nothing concrete. Bryce is small so he'll be a new data point for this. He wasn't exceptionally injury prone in college like some of the bigger guys were, he did take a big hits from NFL level people throughout his career and those scouts will mention that.

He is not guaranteed to get hurt at a higher rate than other players, no one knows at the level he's going to get hurt at and saying you do is the issue. Discounting him because he cant play 17 games and is going to get hurt and wont be able to hold up in the NFL is what people are arguing with. The certainty you are arguing this with with zero data to back it up is why you are getting more push back than you think you should.

We can agree together that his size should be a data point in the calculation, but taking a QB we like worse just because we assume something with nothing actually demonstrating the assumption then yes people will take the stance that is short sighted and incorrect.

[Day1PanthersFan]

Not just the SEC, Bryce had to practice against his own defense, and an Alabama Defense is under alot of pressure, Saban would chew them out for allowing a field goal in a 70-3 Win , so any good play by Bryce would force them to face there coaches wrath 

And he still played well enough for Saban to start him, and Saban is like Bellicheck, an all business perfectionist 

I am hoping for Bryce, but I will support whoever the pick is 

[tukafan21]

9 minutes ago, stan786 said:

Injury risk is a concern, the argument is more there is no way to know either way for certain if he's going to get hurt more or not because of his size. There is limited data out there than generally trends toward lighter players get hurt less but nothing concrete. Bryce is small so he'll be a new data point for this. He wasn't exceptionally injury prone in college like some of the bigger guys were, he did take a big hits from NFL level people throughout his career and those scouts will mention that.

He is not guaranteed to get hurt at a higher rate than other players, no one knows at the level he's going to get hurt at and saying you do is the issue. Discounting him because he cant play 17 games and is going to get hurt and wont be able to hold up in the NFL is what people are arguing with. The certainty you are arguing this with with zero data to back it up is why you are getting more push back than you think you should.

We can agree together that his size should be a data point in the calculation, but taking a QB we like worse just because we assume something with nothing actually demonstrating the assumption then yes people will take the stance that is short sighted and incorrect.

Which is the crux of it all, people in the Young camp say people like myself, are basing the decision solely on his size, it's not, it's just a factor in it all, and in the end, yes, it is the deciding factor.

But that's only because when you look at everything other than size, Stroud is right there as an equal level prospect (and before you go and bash that, there are PLENTY of NFL experts/analysts/execs/coaches/etc who say that, many who even say he's just the better prospect in general).

When they're so close as prospects, size aside, once you then factor that into the equation at the end of the process, that's where it because the easy call for me to say Stroud should be the pick instead of Young.

As I've said numerous times, if it was Young vs Levis or AR, then while the size is still part of the equation and it's factored in, it's not the deciding factor because he's that much of a better prospect in other areas that it far outweighs the size factor.

I think that is very much lost in this argument by the Young supporters, they think those in the Stroud camp think we're wanting to take the "worse QB" which couldn't be further from the truth.  We think they're even level prospects and we're taking the guy we think has the higher likelihood of having a long successful career.

Those in the Young camp just want to disregard size due to it being an "unknown factor and anyone can get hurt at anytime."  

Which while yes, it's true, anyone can get hurt at anytime, doesn't make disregarding his size (in the way they do) a legitimate way to look at this draft pick.

Edited April 21, 2023 by tukafan21

[tukafan21]

1 minute ago, Day1PanthersFan said:

Not just the SEC, Bryce had to practice against his own defense, and an Alabama Defense is under alot of pressure, Saban would chew them out for allowing a field goal in a 70-3 Win , so any good play by Bryce would force them to face there coaches wrath 

And he still played well enough for Saban to start him, and Saban is like Bellicheck, an all business perfectionist 

I am hoping for Bryce, but I will support whoever the pick is 

Again, this is why the argument of playing and succeeding in the SEC is a good barometer of a player's skill, particularly for those from schools like Alabama or Georgia due to playing superior players in practice everyday.

I made this thread in specific regard to people using playing in the SEC as an argument about why he can withstand the physicality of the NFL.

Two VERY VERY different things.

Even more so when you talk about it like you are here and using the competition in practice everyday, seeing as QB's aren't allowed to be touched in practice.

[stan786]

5 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Which is the crux of it all, people in the Young camp say people like myself, are basing the decision solely on his size, it's not, it's just a factor in it all, and in the end, yes, it is the deciding factor.

But that's only because when you look at everything other than size, Stroud is right there as an equal level prospect (and before you go and bash that, there are PLENTY of NFL experts/analysts/execs/coaches/etc who say that, many who even say he's just the better prospect in general).

When they're so close as prospects, size aside, once you then factor that into the equation at the end of the process, that's where it because the easy call for me to say Stroud should be the pick instead of Young.

As I've said numerous times, if it was Young vs Levis or AR, then while the size is still part of the equation and it's factored in, it's not the deciding factor because he's that much of a better prospect in other areas that it far outweighs the size factor.

I think that is very much lost in this argument by the Young supporters, they think those in the Stroud camp think we're wanting to take the "worse QB" which couldn't be further from the truth.  We think they're even level prospects and we're taking the guy we think has the higher likelihood of having a long successful career.

Those in the Young camp just want to disregard size due to it being an "unknown factor and anyone can get hurt at anytime."  

Which while yes, it's true, anyone can get hurt at anytime, doesn't make disregarding his size (in the way they do) a legitimate way to look at this draft pick.

I can respect people saying they prefer Stroud because of actual QB things. I personally have a large enough gap between Young and Stroud sans size that the size doesn't factor into the equation, but we are all just guys on a message board.

The problem on this board is I dont think fans argue enough about actual qualities that they feel push these guys over and just default on the tired size argument and talk about it like its a foregone conclusion. Some Stroud guys have 100% have given some great arguments on why they prefer Stroud but things on message boards just tend to simmer to the most basic arguments. There have also been a number that will say Young is a better QB but hes going to get hurt in the pros which is something I just cant get behind personally.

End of the day anyone talking in guarantees is wrong in my eyes, and I think a lot of the Young side are tired of the common automatic "hes to small we would be idiotic to draft him" takes and get a little more vigilant when discussing things.

He could get hurt in the NFL, I would argue there is nothing in the data or his past that makes it a Very Likely or anything, its just an assumption that may or may not play out.

[OldhamA]

2 hours ago, therealmjl said:

Ok pal

 

Now do Alabama recruiting classes.

[PantherKyle]

2 hours ago, therealmjl said:

So is like 5'11 195 the cutoff? And anything under that they're doomed?

Also, if Stroud was an "equally good prospect", he would be the pick. 

THIS.

Ofcourse he would be the pick if he was prototypical size and viewed in same regard as a prospect. 

[PantherKyle]

1 minute ago, OldhamA said:

Now do Alabama recruiting classes.

Do we want to look at the OL/WR Stroud worked with last year vs what Bryce had?

[poundaway]

36 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

It's quite interesting that everyone here who wants Young just disregards his size as an issue and points to weird random data points as to why "smaller QB's aren't more likely to get injured"

Despite every NFL expert and analyst openly talking about how his size and possible durability issues

 

I'm gonna side with the "experts" on that one, very few, if any, have said that his size are a completely non-factor in the way so many on here talk about him. 

Sigh.

We don't discount it.  We just don't weigh that as end all be all determiner of durability, because its not.  The #1 indicator is previous injury history.  And the only analysis we have says the opposite of what your saying.

Its  just not enough to outweigh Young's positives, most importantly his elite processing.

Those same NFL analysts you talk about say they would take Young #1.  PFF, Draft Buzz, Sports News, ESPN,Walter Football, CBS Sports, NFL.com, and SI.com all have Bryce Young their choice for best QB. Not mock draft. Best QB on their board.

Davis said Young is the better QB and dismissed the size concerns.
Smitty said Young is the taller processor and said Young should go 1 overall.
Kuechly dismissed the size concerns.