Let’s get the record straight on S2

[BrianS]

I think what S2 is trying to do is put numbers on mental ability (not intelligence).

It's easy to measure physical attributes of potential NFL players.  The rub there is that within those measurable attributes, there are outliers all freakin' over the place.  High physicals, abject failures.  Low physicals, HoF career.

I think it's too early in the history of the S2 to tell us whether it's successful or whether it has tons of outliers and whether those outliers are at the high end, low end or elsewhere on the scale.

As it relates to Stroud, it would certainly give me pause simply because the delta is so large.  I'm a Stroud fan, for sure, but the test does give me pause.  I'm sure the Panthers are in the same boat.

[TheMostInterestingMan]

4 minutes ago, BrianS said:

I think what S2 is trying to do is put numbers on mental ability (not intelligence).

It's easy to measure physical attributes of potential NFL players.  The rub there is that within those measurable attributes, there are outliers all freakin' over the place.  High physicals, abject failures.  Low physicals, HoF career.

I think it's too early in the history of the S2 to tell us whether it's successful or whether it has tons of outliers and whether those outliers are at the high end, low end or elsewhere on the scale.

As it relates to Stroud, it would certainly give me pause simply because the delta is so large.  I'm a Stroud fan, for sure, but the test does give me pause.  I'm sure the Panthers are in the same boat.

I think the key it provides is simply how quick your mind works. A QB has to scan the field, go through his reads and make a decision in under three seconds. This test doesn’t identify if he can do this during a live game but it does indicate if he’s capable of doing this well in general which is potentially a huge identifier.

[panthers55]

2 hours ago, TheMostInterestingMan said:

That’s why nobody is using it to rank their draft board alone. You could have all the physical tools but be unable to process information fast enough to succeed in the NFL (maybe Darnold?) or have an elite S2 score but physically be unable to use that ability against elite NFL athletes (the potential worry about Bryce Young).

The point of this post is to explain to people what the S2 actually is and what it actually measures. 

There is direct correlations of how successful of a marker the S2 is both in baseball and in football however. And the evidence suggests that you are indeed much more likely to succeed if you have a high score. And that makes perfect sense once you understand what it is measuring.

So that means that there is a positive correlation between high processing speed and success in physical activities like quarterbacking. But given their data on quarterbacks upon which they decided that an 80 was a cutoff score was 117 quarterbacks over 8 years which they culled done to 27 starting quarterbacks and did their analysis. They are suggesting from that they can predict with 100% that a really low score means you won't be successful. No outliers so far because your N is so low which makes it very limited to use for prediction until much more data has been captured. And if the adage is not judging rookies until year 3 why are they using 2021 data? You wanted questions. I got em...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/4430449/2023/04/20/panthers-nfl-draft-bryce-young-s2-test/%3famp=1

[TheMostInterestingMan]

12 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

So that means that there is a positive correlation between high processing speed and success in physical activities like quarterbacking. But given their data on quarterbacks upon which they decided that an 80 was a cutoff score was 117 quarterbacks over 8 years which they culled done to 27 starting quarterbacks and did their analysis. They are suggesting from that they can predict with 100% that a really low score means you won't be successful. No outliers so far because your N is so low which makes it very limited to use for prediction until much more data has been captured. And if the adage is not judging rookies until year 3 why are they using 2021 data? You wanted questions. I got em...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/4430449/2023/04/20/panthers-nfl-draft-bryce-young-s2-test/%3famp=1

Look, I’m not saying the test is immune to criticism nor am I saying that your questions aren’t reasonable or founded. There’s no need to be hostile. I was fielding questions specifically as it pertains to what the S2 itself is and what it measures.

But again, if you want to believe reports, low scores on the S2 seems to remove players completely off of draft boards. So it would seem many teams value the S2 and take it pretty seriously as a metric. I’m not sure why you are seemingly taking an issue with me as all I’m doing is attempting to explain what this test is to those who clearly don’t understand it based on the “CJ isn’t smart” comments. Because his S2 score has nothing to do with his intelligence. So this post seemed warranted. 
 

Never did I say it was flawless. And certainly time will tell how effective it is. But certain teams seem to value it very highly and early on they seem to be into something in terms of talent evaluation. 

[pantherj]

Has anyone else read that the CJ S2 score was false? Just made up and his real score has not been released?

[TheMostInterestingMan]

5 minutes ago, pantherj said:

Has anyone else read that the CJ S2 score was false? Just made up and his real score has not been released?

Both are kinda speculation at this point. The results haven’t been released to the public but has been released to inquiring teams. So either the journalists leaking this info are making up numbers (which seems odd they would make up numbers with such a disparity) or they are getting their info from people they’ve talked to within the organizations that are privy to the information. 

[pantherj]

Just now, TheMostInterestingMan said:

Both are kinda speculation at this point. The results haven’t been released to the public but has been released to inquiring teams. So either the journalists leaking this info are making up numbers (which seems odd they would make up numbers with such a disparity) or they are getting their info from people they’ve talked to within the organizations that are privy to the information. 

I hate this time of year news-wise.

[WhoKnows]

4 hours ago, TheMostInterestingMan said:

So I’ve been a CJ Stroud guy for six bloody months. I’ve been all in on the Stroud train. Then I heard about the S2 score Bryce boasted and started digging into what this thing is all about. It REALLY warmed me up on Young but still felt I slightly preferred CJ Stroud, but only marginally.

Now here is where my post gets controversial. I have a horrific comparison for Stroud following his scores today… Sounds like a potential Sam Darnold. Now I’m not saying heIS Darnold but Sam was also considered an elite top 3 prospect entering the draft. He could make all the throws, big body, could move fluidly… all the physical markers suggested he could be an elite QB prospect. 
 

His problem is between his ears as has been said here for two years. But he’s also a very intelligent guy. He’s really smart. He’s football smart. So why is he a bad QB?

Perhaps the one thing Sam struggles with is quickly reading a defense and processing that information. This leads to numerous mistakes because he doesn’t have enough time in the pocket to proves what he’s seeing before the pressure gets to him.

So while I’m not saying CJ is going to be on the level of Darnold at all, I think this may be the concern and a legitimate one. Maybe CJ has all the tools and a brilliant football mind but just isn’t capable of processing that information in under 2 and a half seconds. Maybe that’s Darnold and many other QBs issue. Maybe Brady fell so far because he didn’t check many boxes but could process information at lightening speed and that’s something they weren’t testing back when he was entering the draft.

Its an interesting thought for sure.

I get what the S2 is testing, but I’ll add something on QBs that I don’t think gets much discussion as an actual skill. Accuracy. Young is accurate and did well on the S2. Richardson supposedly did well on the S2 as well but isn’t accurate. All the talk about Richardson having the highest ceiling bothers me because arm strength and running ability and even S2 field vision will not make up for not throwing the ball where it needs to be. Darnold had some egregiously bad decisions and Richardson has a lot of bad throws. Scoring well on the S2 can help a QB (like Purdy) find that wide open guy but as we saw in the playoffs Purdy found the right guy at times but just didn’t hit them. He couldn’t always work around a situation where the opponent was a solid playoff team that didn’t let Kittle or others run wide the fug open.

I’m excited by Young because he was accurate and placed the ball well while watching him play. Add in the S2 high score makes me think he’ll see the field well, find the open guys and also hit them to get good results.

[electro's horse]

I feel like I really need to make a thread debunking s2, why it’s medically unethical, why it’s incredibly misleading, and why it’s a scam. 

[TheMostInterestingMan]

1 minute ago, WhoKnows said:

I get what the S2 is testing, but I’ll add something on QBs that I don’t think gets much discussion as an actual skill. Accuracy. Young is accurate and did well on the S2. Richardson supposedly did well on the S2 as well but isn’t accurate. All the talk about Richardson having the highest ceiling bothers me because arm strength and running ability and even S2 field vision will not make up for not throwing the ball where it needs to be. Darnold had some egregiously bad decisions and Richardson has a lot of bad throws. Scoring well on the S2 can help a QB (like Purdy) find that wide open guy but as we saw in the playoffs Purdy found the right guy at times but just didn’t hit them. He couldn’t always work around a situation where the opponent was a solid playoff team that didn’t let Kittle or others run wide the fug open.

I’m excited by Young because he was accurate and placed the ball well while watching him play. Add in the S2 high score makes me think he’ll see the field well, find the open guys and also hit them to get good results.

Again, I think you just have to use this as another metric for evaluation. Having a high S2 doesn’t mean you’ll be a good QB. You still must be accurate. You still must have a strong arm. You still must be a good leader. But having a bad S2 likely could be cause for concern. Because maybe you have all of the above, but if you can’t process the information quickly, you may fail as well.

S2 doesn’t indicate whether a player will be good or bad. It’s just another useful piece of information when making a decision on a player. It feels like everyone is acting like I’m saying “oh you think he will be good cause he had a high score? What’s your evidence?”

I’m not saying that at all. I’m saying it’s another useful piece of information when evaluating the players in the draft. That’s all.

[TheMostInterestingMan]

Just now, electro's horse said:

I feel like I really need to make a thread debunking s2, why it’s medically unethical, why it’s incredibly misleading, and why it’s a scam. 

Go for it. Would love to hear that. Would love to hear you explain how it’s unethical anymore than the combine is unethical. Players aren’t being forced to take it. But teams are clearly going to use it. 
 

Would love to hear why it’s misleading. The tests they use have been around for a very long time and are still use because they provide information about ones cognitive ability. It was t created three years ago. And you can argue that what it tests isn’t critical or necessary when evaluating NFL players but that’s just your opinion rather than it being a ‘misleading’ test. If scouts feel the end as you, they won’t use it. 
 

Would love to hear why it’s a scam. Do you feel the medical community is a scam? Do you believe the universities that have used these tests are a scam? 
 

From where I’m sitting you sound like you are spewing a bunch of nonsense, but if you actually can prove me wrong on all these points then I’m genuinely open to hearing what you have to say.

[TheMostInterestingMan]

10 minutes ago, electro's horse said:

I feel like I really need to make a thread debunking s2, why it’s medically unethical, why it’s incredibly misleading, and why it’s a scam. 

Furthermore, would you say this is unethical or a scam?

https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/22306-cognitive-test

[rebelrouser]

4 hours ago, TheMostInterestingMan said:

Sounds like a potential Sam Darnold.

This is my fear. Stroud has a built in ceiling meaning he will be a decent starter or back up and that's it. You don't trade the farm for that.  

[panthers55]

38 minutes ago, TheMostInterestingMan said:

Look, I’m not saying the test is immune to criticism nor am I saying that your questions aren’t reasonable or founded. There’s no need to be hostile. I was fielding questions specifically as it pertains to what the S2 itself is and what it measures.

But again, if you want to believe reports, low scores on the S2 seems to remove players completely off of draft boards. So it would seem many teams value the S2 and take it pretty seriously as a metric. I’m not sure why you are seemingly taking an issue with me as all I’m doing is attempting to explain what this test is to those who clearly don’t understand it based on the “CJ isn’t smart” comments. Because his S2 score has nothing to do with his intelligence. So this post seemed warranted. 
 

Never did I say it was flawless. And certainly time will tell how effective it is. But certain teams seem to value it very highly and early on they seem to be into something in terms of talent evaluation. 

Not being hostile simply pointing out obvious flaws in placing much stock in this test at this point. The problem is not in using it as one factor among a number of things in evaluating a QB, but like in the case of Stroud it is saying based on this research he stands little chance to be successful given his low score despite film of games showing the opposite.  As someone who administered cognitive and performance related tests for 30 years I know the limits of what they actually measure versus what they claim. And issues like attention span for example have significant impact for example on continuous performance tests.

Edited April 21, 2023 by panthers55